1.
McKinsey & Company 1
Five emerging consumer themes in October 2021
1 2
Source: Based on 3rd-party data between Feb 2019 and Aug 2021, as well as longitudinal surveys conducted between Mar 2020 and Aug 2021 in the United States
1. Year-over-year growth for Mar–Jun 2021 relative to estimate of Mar–Jun 2020 growth had COVID-19 not occurred.
5
4
3
Strong spending
across income and
age groups
Omnichannel is
ascendant
Loyalty shake-up
continues
Strong and merry
holidays
A tentative return
to out-of-home
Year-over-year growth1
is at 11% vs pre-
COVID-19 growth
trajectory, with growth
across almost all
categories. Both
excitement to spend as
well as inflation have
driven spending growth
Both brick-and-mortar
retail and e-commerce
show strong gains
(10% and 36%,
respectively), with 60–
70% of consumers
shopping in an
omnichannel way
In the past 3 months,
over 60% of consumers
faced out-of-stocks; of
these consumers, only
13% waited for the item
to come back in stock
while over 70%
switched retailer or
brands
Almost 50% of
consumers are
engaging in “normal”
out-of-home activities,
up from 33% in
February; consumer
investment in home
continues despite the
partial return to out-of-
home activity
A strong holiday season
is expected, with overall
spend expected to grow
7% and almost half of
consumers shopping
earlier due to supply-
chain concerns plus
excitement; social media
is expected to influence
consumers of all ages

2.
McKinsey & Company 2
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
14 13 17 17 22 21
22 32
49 52
50 50
46
65
74
67
37 35 33 33 32
14
5 1
Mixed The economy will be
impacted for 6–12 months or
longer and will stagnate or show
slow growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19 will
have lasting impact on the
economy and show regression
or fall into lengthy recession
Optimistic: The economy will
rebound within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before COVID-19
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to
100% due to rounding.
Spending remains strong | Current as of October 2021
Germany
10/15–22
UK
10/15–22
Italy
10/15–22
France
10/15–22
Change in % optimistic vs
Feb survey, percentage points
US
10/9–15
+3 +3
+13 +14
+18
Spain
10/15–22
+16
India
10/18–25
+3
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey
China
10/17–22
+6 +2
Japan
10/18–20
15
41
44
Sentiment ranges widely across global countries

3.
McKinsey & Company 3
15 16 17 17 20 18 16 14 13 14 16 15
45 48 50 48 46 46
45 44 46 45 41 41
40 36 33 35 34 36 39 42 41 41 43 44
Mar 20202 Nov 2020
May 2020
Apr 20202 June 2020 Aug 2020 Sept 2020 Oct 2020 Feb 2021 Aug 2021 Oct 2021
July 2020
Spending remains strong | Current as of October 2021
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to
100% because of rounding.
2. Average of weekly pulse surveys shown for March through April 2020.
Optimistic: The
economy will rebound
within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before
COVID-19
Mixed: The economy
will be impacted for 6-12
months or longer and will
stagnate or show slow
growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-
19 will have lasting
impact on the economy
and show regression / fall
into lengthy recession
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095; 8/25–8/31/2021, n = 2,004; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076; 11/9–11/13/2020, n = 2,024; 10/23–10/27/2020, n = 2,021; 9/18–9/24/2020, n = 1,026;
8/19–8/23/2020, n = 2,026; 7/30–8/2/2020, n = 2,024; 7/7–7/12/2020, n = 1,923; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 2,006; 6/1–6/7/2020, n = 1,966; 5/18–5/24/2020, n = 1,975; 5/11–5/17/2020, n = 2,002; 5/4–5/10/2020, n = 1,993; 4/27–5/3/2020, n = 2,105;
4/20–4/26/2020, n = 1,052; 4/13–4/19/2020, n = 1,052; 4/6–4/12/2020, n = 1,063; 3/30–4/5/2020, n = 1,484; 3/23–3/29/2020, n = 1,119; 3/20–3/22/2020, n = 1,073; 3/16–3/17/2020, n = 1,042, sampled and weighted to match the US general
population 18+ years
Overall optimism on economic recovery following the COVID-19
pandemic continues to slowly increase in 2021
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-19,1 % of US respondents

4.
McKinsey & Company 4
Spending remains strong | Current as of October 2021
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after
COVID-19 by income level,1 % of respondents
30 30
35
36
32
41
38 39 39
45
48
54
57
61
0
30
65
25
15
10
5
20
50
35
40
55
45
60
July 2020 Sept 2020 Feb 2021
36
Aug 2021 Oct 2021
Low (<$50k) Medium ($50k–100k) High (>$100k)
24
21
18
20 21
18
16
15
12
10 10
7
10
0
15
5
20
30
25
35
40
45
65
50
55
60
17
July 2020
16
Sept 2020
14
Feb 2021 Oct 2021
Aug 2021
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.”
Optimism by income Pessimism by income
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095; 8/25–8/31/2021, n = 2,004; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076; 9/18–9/24/2020, n = 1,026;
7/7–7/12/2020, n = 1,923; sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
High-income consumer optimism continues to increase while
middle- and low-income consumer optimism remains flat

5.
McKinsey & Company 5
Younger and vaccinated consumers also drive optimism
Spending remains strong | Current as of October 2021
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.”
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
By generation2 By vaccination status
9 10
26
16
Millennials
52
40
Gen Z
52
39
62
28
44
Gen X
22
Baby boomers3
Optimistic Mixed Pessimistic
11
28
42
36
47
36
Vaccinated Unvaccinated

6.
McKinsey & Company 6
Spending remains strong | Current as of October 2021
26 22
28 32
15
17
11 5
59 61 61 63
Gen Z Gen X
Millennials Baby boomers
23
40
13
8
64
52
Unvaccinated
Vaccinated
28
11
61
Overall
1. Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
3. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status?
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
Not affected/already returned
In or after 2022 In 2021
By generation2 By vaccination status3
~40% of
unvaccinated
individuals say their
lives have already
returned to normal
Younger
respondents,
particularly the
millennial
generation, are most
likely to say things
have not returned to
normal
Approximately 60 percent of consumers expect a return to
normalcy in 2022 or beyond
Expectations on routines returning to normal,1 % of respondents

7.
McKinsey & Company 7
Household finances have improved slightly over the past year
Spending remains strong | Current as of October 2021
Increased slightly/a lot
About the same
Reduced slightly/a lot
34
29
24 27
57
60
65 60
9 11 11 13
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks
41 37 34 35
45
43 49 49
14
20 17 16
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks
37 34
27 29
42 44
50 47
21 22 23 24
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095; 8/25–8/31/2021, n = 2,004; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076; 11/9–11/13/2020,
n = 2,024, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
1. Q: How has the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis affected the following over the past 2 weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Household income Household spending Household savings
Feb 18–22 Aug 25–31 Oct 9–15
Nov 9–13 Feb 18–22 Aug 25–31 Oct 9–15
Nov 9–13 Feb 18–22 Aug 25–31 Oct 9–15
Nov 9–13
COVID-19 impact on household finances,1 % of respondents

8.
McKinsey & Company 8
About 50 percent of consumers say it will take until 2022 for
household finances to return to normal
Spending remains strong | Current as of October 2021
1. Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
3. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status?
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
By generation2 By vaccination status3
~60% of baby
boomers say their
finances either
were not affected
or are back to
normal, vs ~30%
for Gen Z and
millennials
Expectations on personal/household finances
returning to normal,1 % of respondents
42 42
10 7
48 51
Vaccinated Unvaccinated
28 28
38
63
12 14
11
60 58
51
34
Millennials Baby boomers
Gen Z Gen X
3
In or after 2022 Not affected/already returned
In 2021
42
9
49
Overall

9.
McKinsey & Company 9
Spending remains strong | Current as of October 2021
Younger and higher-income consumers plan to spend more than
older consumers and those with lower incomes
1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2021? For example, are there categories of products or services you have spent less on over the last year and half which you feel you
will spend more on now?
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095; 8/25–8/31/2021, n = 2,004; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076, sampled and weighted
to match the US general population 18+ years
59
41
42
51
49
Feb 2021 Aug 2021
58
Oct 2021
Plan on
splurging
Do not plan
on splurging
Millennials
Gen X
Baby boomers
49
−4
68
5
Gen Z 72
6
42
−8
63
−3
70
−10
22
−5
22
−11
29
−18
28
−4
34
−17
51
−14
Generation
2
Respondents who plan/do not plan to
splurge/treat themselves in 20211
% of respondents
Low
(<$50k/year)
Middle
($50–100k/year)
High
(>$100k/year)
>70%
<30% 50–70%
30–50% pp change from Feb 21
XX
Respondents who plan to splurge, by household income, %
Change < −10 pp
.

10.
McKinsey & Company 10
Consumers’ intentions to splurge are moderating since early 2021;
baby boomers indicate intent to spend on travel and experiences
Spending remains strong | Current as of October 2021
Categories where consumers intend to treat themselves1
% of all respondents with intent to splurge
1. Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in next 6 months. Which categories do you intend to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply.
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
41
37
32
30
29
28
27
26
24
24
21
19
17
Apparel, shoes, and accessories
Electronics
Restaurants, dining out, bars
Personal services
Items for your home
Makeup and skin-care products
Travel, lodging, and vacation
Household essentials
Fitness
Sports apparel and equipment
Out-of-home entertainment
Pets
Outdoor living
Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers
Generational cut2
Change from
Feb 2021,
percentage points
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Categories
Difference from all respondents,
percentage points
47 44 39 31
31 36 37 43
33 37 30 23
40 35 26 16
28 32 34 19
24 27 30 34
22 31 26 22
19 29 28 22
28 28 25 11
18 28 28 12
19 24 18 19
30 19 19 12
19 21 20 6
2
–9
–5
N/A
–3
–16
–3
–2
–3
N/A
–7
N/A
N/A

11.
McKinsey & Company 11
Spending remains strong | Current as of September 2021
Source: Affinity Solutions credit-card spend data for 2/2019–9/2021
1. Includes credit-card and some debit-card spending data among banked consumers; does not include spending that is difficult to track (eg, at small businesses) and/or for channels where non-credit-card forms of payment (cash, check, bank
transfers, etc) are common (healthcare, insurance, utilities, housing, etc). Year-over-year growth in monthly sales during current period (2/2020–9/2021) compared with monthly sales in prior period (2/2019–9/2020).
2. Year-over-year spend in Mar–Sept 2020 decreased by 8% compared with same period in previous year, whereas Sept–Feb remained flat compared with same period in previous year.
3. Re-forecasted Mar–Sept 2020 spend calculated by growing Feb–Sept 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed between Feb and Sept 2019.
10
−6
−18
−9
−6 −5
−3
1
2 1
−2
3
−4
4 5 5 7 6 6
11
July
Aug
Mar
Feb July
21
Apr Feb
May May
June Sept Dec
Oct Nov Jan Mar
27
June
Apr Aug Sept
20
20
40
25
22
1st round of
stimulus
2nd round
of stimulus
Holiday pull-
forward spend
3rd round
of stimulus
vs re-
forecasted
Sept 2020
spend had
COVID-19 not
occurred3
vs Sept 2020
actual spend
Comparison to pre-COVID-19 months
Comparison to COVID-affected
months
Mar–Aug
6-month YoY:
-8%2
Sept–Feb
6-month YoY:
0%2
Year-over-year credit-card spend,1 %
September continues trend of strong growth, with an uptick
potentially due to inflation and an earlier start on holiday spending

12.
McKinsey & Company 12
Spending remains strong | Current as of September 2021
Source: Affinity Solutions credit-card spend data from 2/2019–9/2021; US Bureau of Labor Statistics
1. Includes credit-card and some debit-card spending data among banked consumers; does not include spending that is difficult to track (e.g., at small businesses) and/or for channels where non-credit card forms of payment (cash, check,
banks transfers, etc.) are common (healthcare, insurance, utilities, housing, etc.). Year-over-year growth in monthly sales during current period (2/2020–9/2021) compared to monthly sales in prior period (2/2019–9/2020). Re-forecasted
Mar-Sept 2020 spend calculated by growing Feb-Sept 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed between Feb-Sept 2019.
10
-6
-18
-9
-6 -5
-3
2
1
-2
3
-4
4
5 5
7
6 6
11
-15
-5
-20
-10
0
5
10
15
Apr
Feb Mar May June July Aug
1
Mar
Dept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Apr May June July Aug Sept
Change in US Consumer Price Index (CPI) per annum, % Adjusted year-over-year credit-card spend1, %
As spending has increased, inflation has also gone up

13.
McKinsey & Company 13
Spending remains strong | Current as of September 2021
Source: Affinity credit card spend data for Feb 2019–Sept 2021; spend samples cardholders and underrepresents highest- and lowest-income bands
Year-over-year credit-card spend by population subsegment,1 %
20
−30
−20
−10
10
0
30
June
Feb
Mar
Apr
Dec
May
June
Oct
July
Sept
Aug
Apr
Sept
Nov
Jan
Feb
Mar
May
July
Aug
Low (<$35k) Medium ($35k–80k) High (>$80,000)
Stimulus payment
Low-income
consumers
Medium-income
consumers
High-income
consumers
Change in spend, by income level,1 %
2020 2021
1. Re-forecasted Mar–Sept 2020 spend calculated by growing Feb–Sept 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed for Feb–Sept 2019.
Sept 2021 vs Sept 2020
year-over-year change
19
9
12
US consumer spending shows continued, robust growth across all
income groups
> 5%
< −5%

14.
McKinsey & Company 14
Spending remains strong | Current as of September 2021
Source: Affinity credit card spend data for Feb 2019–Sept 2021; spend samples cardholders and underrepresents highest- and lowest-income bands
−30
20
−10
−20
30
0
10
Jan
Apr
Oct
Mar
June
Mar
Feb
Apr
May
July
June
July
Aug
Sept
Sept
Nov
Dec
Feb
May
Aug
18–37 (millennials) 52+ (baby boomers)
38–51 (Gen X)
Year-over-year credit-card spend by population subsegment,1 %
Stimulus payment
Baby
boomers
Gen X
Millennials
Change in spend,1 by age group,2 %
2020 2021
Sept 2021 vs Sept 2020
year-over-year change
7
18
13
> 5%
< −5%
While millennials’ spending growth outpaces other cohorts, baby
boomers’ trajectory is on the rise
1. Re-forecasted Mar–Sept 2020 spend calculated by growing Feb–Sept 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed for Feb–Sept 2019.
2. Age brackets: baby boomers (52+), Gen X (38–51), millennials (18–37). Data for lower-income consumers (<$35,000) underrepresented across all generational groups.

15.
McKinsey & Company 15
Spending remains strong | Current as of September 2021
Early pandemic
May–July 2020
Later 2020
Aug–Dec
YTD 2021
Jan–Sept
Description
A Robust year-over-year growth throughout, due to larger
consumer shifts (eg, homebody economy)
Sustained
elevation
B Fast rise in early days of COVID-19, with growth
subsiding over time
Normalizing
growth
C Steady demand, not affected by COVID-19
Unaffected
D Significant declines at the outset of COVID-19, with
quicker recovery
Approaching
recovery
E Larger decline (−50% or more year over year), with
slower path to recovery
/
Larger decline
Categories/channels
 Software and electronics
 Home
 Pet supplies
 Sporting apparel
 Cosmetics
 Grocery stores
 Discount stores
 Mass stores
 Wholesale clubs
 Drugstores and
pharmacies
 Telecom/cable
 Retail apparel
 Fuel and other auto
 Restaurants
 Out-of-home entertainment
 Travel
Channel and category performance has evolved into five distinct
performance types over the course of the pandemic

16.
McKinsey & Company 16
Spending remains strong | Current as of September 2021
−15 0 15 30+
YoY growth, %
−30
< −45
Source: Affinity credit card spend data for Feb 2019–Sept 2021; Stackline Amazon spend data for Feb 2019–Sept 2021
Sustained
elevation
Normalizing
growth
Approaching
recovery
Larger
decline
Unaffected
Software and electronics3
Home3
Pet supplies3
Sporting apparel3
Restaurants
Auto
Retail apparel3
Out-of-home entertainment
Travel
Total
Discount stores
Wholesale clubs
Mass
Drugstores, pharmacies3
Cosmetics3
Grocery stores3
Telecom/cable
13
15
15
6
9
10
5
30
5
10
4
15
10
7
14
9
7
Pre-
COVID-
19
Feb 2020
9
2
24
−14
−24
−21
−43
−52
−46
−6
18
20
15
22
−9
36
−4
Early
shelter
in place,
Mar
28
35
21
27
−1
−16
−9
−78
−49
0
13
13
8
10
8
10
1
Fall
Aug–Oct
29
24
18
−6
−26
−41
−53
−79
−72
−13
9
0
9
2
1
15
2
E-
commerce
acceleration
Apr–May
23
28
19
25
−10
−22
−15
−79
−56
−5
9
9
3
9
9
9
0
Early
summer
June–July
26
34
24
36
3
−3
3
−62
−28
4
31
13
7
4
30
5
2
Mar–Apr
adjusted2
20
28
6
22
11
16
7
8
−6
−18
−12
5
−78
9
−48
0
2
Holiday
Nov–Dec
25
21
22
36
5
−1
7
−28
−12
6
10
12
7
7
25
6
−1
May–Jun
adjusted2
12
15
26
30
7
4
6
−26
−8
6
15
15
6
13
26
8
0
Jul-Aug
adjusted2
22
30
22
21
−2
−8
−5
−75
−48
−1
13
12
10
1
14
9
2
2021
Jan–Feb
1. Excludes sales in automotive, beauty, grocery, home improvement, home and furniture, pet supplies, apparel and accessories, electronics, sports and outdoors, as these categories are embedded into subsequent rows.
2. YoY growth for Mar–Sept 2021 relative to estimate of Mar–Sept 2020 had COVID not occurred. Re-forecasted Mar–Sept 2020 spend calculated by growing Feb–Sept 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate
observed for Feb– Sept 2019.
3. Includes Amazon sales.
Spending growth in most categories other than out-of-home
entertainment and travel is now at or past pre-COVID levels
Year-over-year (YoY) sales growth,1 %
16
26
32
40
9
12
10
−25
−11
11
19
25
9
20
33
13
4
Sept
adjusted2
Sept sees a split
in spending
performance in
categories having
had sustained
elevation

17.
McKinsey & Company 17
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of September 2021
1. Includes credit-card and some debit-card spending data among banked consumers. While card spending represents only a part of overall consumer spending (such as housing, utilities, and other major categories excluded from credit-card
spending), the changes in card data closely track changes in official consumption figures reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is because the share of unaffected categories in card spending is comparable with the share of
categories not affected negatively by COVID-19 in overall consumption (which includes housing). Year-over-year growth in monthly sales during current period (Feb 2020–Sept 2021) compared with monthly sales in prior period (Feb 2019–
Sept 2020).
2. Year-over-year growth for Mar–Sept 2021 relative to estimate of Mar–Sept 2020 had COVID not occurred. Re-forecasted Mar–Sept 2020 spend calculated by growing Feb–Sept 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed for
Feb–Sept 2019.
3. Includes the following retail channels: Amazon brick and mortar; apparel; software and electronics; cosmetics; pet supplies; home stores; mass stores; club stores; restaurants; grocery stores; drugstores; discount stores; auto and
cable/telecom (not shown separately); and experiences, including out-of-home entertainment and travel.
4. Includes the following retailer categories: Amazon; apparel; software and electronics; cosmetics; pet supplies; home stores; mass stores; club stores; restaurants; grocery stores; drugstores; and discount stores.
Source: Affinity Solutions credit-card spend data from Feb 2019–Sept 2021; Stackline Amazon spend data, Feb 2019–Sept 2021
Year-over-year sales growth, %
−10 0 10 20
−20
−30 30
Total3
Brick-
and-
mortar
sales3
E-com-
merce
sales4
Year-over-
year
change, last
12 mos vs last
13–24 mos
E-com-
merce
accele-
ration
Apr–May
Early
summer
June–July
Holiday
Nov–Dec
Early 2021
Jan–Feb
Fall
Aug–Oct May2
Early
shelter in
place
Mar
Pre-
COVID-19
Feb 2020
Start of
recovery2
Mar–Apr
June-
July2
−13 −5 0 −1
0 11
−6
10 5 5 7 7
−13 −3 −2 2
3 10
1
7 5 6 5 5
62 52 41 44
49 36
27
24 48 34 32 32
Aug2
Retail channel, year-over-year growth in spend,1 2019–21, %
Growth in spend shifts to e-commerce in September as total spend
grows 11 percent year-over-year
4
4
40
Sept2

18.
McKinsey & Company 18
Source: Affinity Solutions credit-card and debit-card spend data for Feb 2019–Sept 2021; Facteus debit-card spend data for Feb 2019–Sept 2021; Stackline
Amazon spend data for Feb 2019–Sept 2021
1. Includes the following retailer categories: Amazon, apparel, software and electronics, cosmetics stores, pet supplies, home stores, mass stores, club stores,
restaurants, grocery stores, drugstores, discount stores.
2. Last 12 months.
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of September 2021
~30%
Increase in
online
penetration
since Mar 2020,
based on credit-
card and debit-
card spend
Retail-oriented online credit-card and debit-card spend as % of total1
19
20
27 27
25
26
25 25 25
29
30
27
26 26
25
24
26
24
25 25
LTM2 Mar
2020
June
Apr Aug
May Sept
July Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept
2021
~30%
Online penetration holds steady at about 30 percent above
pre-COVID-19 levels

19.
McKinsey & Company 19
E-commerce share of total retail sales1
%
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of September 2021
Source: Affinity credit card spend data for Feb 2019–Sept 2021; Stackline Amazon spend data for Feb 2019–Sept 2021
1. Year-over-year growth for Mar–Sept 2021 relative to estimate of Mar–Sept 2020 had COVID not occurred. Re-forecasted Mar–Sept 2020 spend calculated by growing Feb–Sept 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate
observed for Feb–Sept 2019.
2. Excludes sales in automotive, beauty, grocery, home improvement, home and furniture, pet supplies, apparel and accessories, electronics, sports and outdoors, as these categories are embedded into subsequent rows.
3. Includes Amazon sales.
2021
(May–
June)
25
12
1
67
20
8
34
62
10
37
76
45
11
(July)
24
11
1
66
20
7
33
61
9
36
74
43
10
Current
(Sept)
25
12
1
68
22
8
35
63
9
36
73
44
10
Total e-commerce penetration by retailer category2
Mass
Discount stores
Cosmetics3
Drugstores, pharmacies3
Grocery stores3
Home3
Pet supplies3
Restaurants
Retail apparel3
Software and electronics3
Sporting apparel3
Wholesale clubs
E-commerce penetration
20 30 40 50+
10
0
19
6
1
53
16
5
30
55
4
33
68
38
8
Pre-
COVID-19
(Feb)
20
8
0
68
19
6
32
60
7
43
78
49
8
Early
shelter in
place
(Mar)
27
12
0
90
21
7
36
67
10
67
89
66
11
E-
commerce
acceleration
(Apr–May)
25
11
0
72
20
7
34
61
9
43
82
50
10
Early
summer
(June–
July)
25
11
1
67
20
7
35
60
9
41
79
47
10
Fall
(Aug–Oct)
25
11
1
70
20
7
36
61
8
44
80
50
10
Holiday
(Nov–Dec)
27
13
1
70
21
8
38
63
11
45
79
50
11
Early 2021
(Jan–Feb)
26
12
1
70
20
9
35
63
10
39
77
46
11
Start of
recovery
(Mar–Apr)
Essentials
Discretionary
Online penetration remains stable across all channels
25
11
1
67
22
8
34
62
10
39
75
46
12
(Aug)

20.
McKinsey & Company 20
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of September 2021
Source: Affinity Solutions credit-card and debit-card spend data for Feb 2019–Sept 2021; Facteus debit-card spend data for Feb 2019–Sept 2021; Stackline Amazon spend data, Feb 2019–Sept 2021
46
83
55
Pre-
COVID-19,
last 12
months5
Apr 2020
spike
Sept 2021
+20%
13
19 19
Pre-
COVID-19,
last 12
months5
Apr 2020
spike
Sept 2021
+46%
5
9 10
Pre-
COVID-19,
last 12
months5
Apr 2020
spike
Sept 2021
+100%
High penetration2
(>20%)
Moderate penetration3
(7–20%)
Low penetration4
(<7%)
Categories with lower pre-COVID-19 online penetration saw higher e-commerce growth in March and may be
more likely to sustain online penetration rates seen during the pandemic
Categories with already high online penetration saw a
dramatic spike during April’s lockdowns
1. Re-forecasted Mar–Sept 2020 spend calculated by growing Feb–Sept 2020 spend by the same 1-month growth rate observed for Feb–Sept 2019.
2. High-online-penetration retail categories include those with >20% pre-COVID-19 internet penetration: apparel, software and electronics, cosmetics, pet supplies.
3. Medium-online-penetration retail categories include those with 7–20% pre-COVID-19 internet penetration: home stores, mass stores, club stores.
4. Low-online-penetration retail categories include those with <7% pre-COVID-19 internet penetration: restaurants, grocery stores, drugstores, discount stores.
5. Online penetration from Mar 2019 to Feb 2020.
The trajectory of e-commerce penetration differs by category and
remains elevated compared with pre-COVID-19 levels
Online sales as % of overall sales for credit-card and debit-card spend,1 by level of pre-COVID-19 penetration

21.
McKinsey & Company 21
−10
30
0
10
20
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Timeline
YoY
growth,
%
Since April of this year, Amazon’s growth has decelerated but is still
higher versus pre-COVID-19 period
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of September 2021
Year-over-year (YoY) growth for Amazon sales, 2019–21, %
Source: Stackline Amazon spend data, Jan 2019–Sept 2021
Pre-
COVID-19
(Jan–Feb)
Early
shelter in
place
(Mar)
E-
commerce
acceleration
(Apr–May)
Early summer
(June–July)
Holiday
(Nov–Dec)
16 14 43 46 36
2020 2021
Fall
(Aug–Oct)
39
2021
(Jan–Feb)
31
Thanksgiving
July 4th
Christmas
Labor Day
Stimulus
New Year’s Day
Stimulus
2021
(Apr–May)
28
2021
(June–July)
18
2021
(Mar)
61
XX YoY growth in given period, %
Prime day
Prime Day
lapping
Negative growth rate due to
delayed Prime Day (originally
in week 29 in 2019) No data for week 1 in 2021
Negative growth due to accelerated July 4
(week 27 in 2021 vs week 28 in 2020)
2021
(Aug)
10
2021
(Sept)
8

22.
McKinsey & Company 22
Six or seven in ten consumers shop across all categories in an
omnichannel way
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of August 2021
1. Q: Which best described how you have researched the following categories over the last 3 months?
35
33
31
24
24
22
20
20
22
20
17
17
15
16
16
13
16
12
58
60
62
63
63
70
66
65
65
60
62
69
68
65
65
61
70
65
7
7
7
13
13
8
14
15
13
20
21
14
17
19
19
26
14
23
Household supplies
Home decoration and furniture
Groceries
Pet food and supplies
Skin care and makeup
Footwear
Personal-care products
Home improvement, gardening supplies
Vitamins, supplements, OTC medicine
Accessories
Fitness and wellness services
Kitchen and dining
Jewelry
Apparel
Toys and baby supplies
Books, magazines, newspapers
Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies
Consumer electronics
Research and purchase only in-store Omnichannel Research and purchase only online
Product research and purchase by channel over the last 3 months1
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years

23.
McKinsey & Company 23
Social-media influence heaviest on Gen Z and millennials, though
influence is pervasive across generations for select categories
1. Q: Think about the purchases you have made in the following categories over the past 3 months. Were you influenced toward a certain brand by a post on social media in the following categories?.
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
49
47
44
41
39
37
34
34
34
32
30
26
25
24
23
22
Accessories
Jewelry
Household supplies
Sports and outdoors equipment and supplies
Fitness and wellness services
Skin care and makeup
Home decoration and furniture
Consumer electronics
Apparel
Footwear
Kitchen and dining
Home improvement and gardening supplies
Personal-care products
Vitamins, supplements, over-the-counter medicine
Groceries
Pet food and supplies
Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers
Generational cut2
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
Categories
Categories where respondents were influenced by social media1
% of all respondents who purchased in these categories in the last 3 months
65 46 14
59 61 37 8
57 60 40 8
55 57 37 13
60 56 31 16
54 59 30 10
56 52 32 11
63 57 28 11
51 56 30 8
41 53 28 8
54 55 29 7
37 47 25 6
32 47 23 9
34
30
59
37
42
41
41
24
22
22
5
7
5
Top 3 categories influenced by social media
Omnichannel is ascendant | Current as of October 2021

24.
McKinsey & Company 24
Most consumers would rather switch brands or retailers than wait
for out-of-stock items
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
1. Q: Over the last 3 months, have you wanted to buy something and not been able to purchase it because it was out of stock or otherwise not available?
2. Q: The most recent time this happened (when you wanted to buy something and it was not available), what did you do?
Respondents who planned to purchase something but could not, due to unavailability1
% of respondents
Switched brand
or product
62
could not
purchase at
least 1 item Did not
buy
Waited
13
16
39
32
Switched
retailer
Response of potential purchasers²
Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of October 2021

25.
McKinsey & Company 25
Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of October 2021
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076, sampled and weighted to match
the US general population 18+ years
Generational cut2
Between −3 and 3
< −3 >3
1. Q: Over the past 3 months, which of the following have you done? 28% replied “None of these.”
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above.
3. “New digital shopping” method includes downloaded a new app, signed up for a new subscription.
4. “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps.
Behaviors in the past 3 months1
% of respondents
Changes in consumer behavior have been more extensive among
younger and high-income consumers
Difference from all respondents,
percentage points
72
43
36
30
25
24
Different retailer/store/website
New digital shopping method3
Any new shopping behavior
Different brand
Private label/store brand
New shopping method3
High
(>$100k/year)
Gen Z Millennials
Income cut
All consumers
84
85 87
46
49 49
46
42 48
34
30 35
34
37 36
33
37 34

26.
McKinsey & Company 26
Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 began1
% of respondents who tried a new brand since COVID-19 began
Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of October 2021
1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select up to 3 relevant reasons. “Brand” includes different brand, new
private label/store brand. Over-arching reason based on % of individual respondents responding to at least 1 reason in the group.
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are people 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076, sampled and weighted to match
the US general population 18+ years
Better prices, promotions
20
Better shipping, delivery cost
Products are in stock
Larger package sizes
Shares my values
Supporting local businesses
More sustainable, better for the environment
The company treats its employees well
Better quality
Natural, organic
12
Wanted to try a new brand I found
21
Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before
8
Better value
Wanted variety, change from my normal routine
Available where I’m shopping (ie, in store or online)
Cleaner, safer
5
34
34
12
9
11
10
7
21
16
12
14
9
Wanted to treat myself
Novelty
Personal choice
Purpose-driven
Quality/organic
Convenience
Health/hygiene
Availability 19
Value 66
26
28
33
14
10
23
Baby
boomers
Gen Z +
millennials2 Gen X
All consumers
Between −3 and 3
< −3 >3
Older consumers focus most on value and prices, while younger
consumers are most interested in quality
x Net % of respondents per category
Difference from all respondents,
percentage points
42
35
44
38
7
11
8
7
26
19
8
7
5
9
1
11
2
2
12
25
5
6
25
17
17
18
10
13
11
15
18
12
5
10
28
24
17
15
16
12
8
12
8
26
13
19
15
14
11
11
13

27.
McKinsey & Company 27
Source: McKinsey Sept 2019–Sept 2021 Global Sentiment Surveys
US consumers are trading down almost three times more in 2021
than pre-pandemic levels, but less than in 2020
Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of October 2021
4
16
11
5
5
6
2.75X
US income tiers, household, annual
$50k–100k >$100k
<$50k
1. Q: Please indicate how your buying behavior has changed in a standard shopping basket for the items shown in the past 12 months (since September 2020). Select all that apply with option 7 being mutually exclusive and option 1 exclusive
from option 2. Possible answers: (1) “Switching to less expensive brands”; (2) “Buying the same brand as I bought 12 months ago but at stores with lower prices”; (3) “Buying only when on sale or with coupon”; (4) “Buying less frequently or
lower quantity of the same brand”; (5) “Switching to more expensive/premium brands”;( 6) “Have made some other change in how I buy these products”; (7) “Have not made changes in how I buy these products.” Trade down reflects option 1
as a percentage of all consumers, while trade up reflects option 5 as a percentage of all consumers.
Total
2019
2020
2021
3
10
7
6
10
10
3
17
10
6
3
6
6
18
15
4
3
3
Trade down Trade up
Trade-off behavior in a standard shopping basket among all consumers by income tier1
% of consumers, Sept 2021, Sept 2020, and Sept 2019

28.
McKinsey & Company 28
Out-of-home/homebody economy | Current as of October 2021
Overall
1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those saying they are already participating in these activities.
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095; 8/25–8/31/2021, n = 2,004; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076; 11/9–11/13/2020,
n = 2,024; 9/18–9/24/2020, n = 1,026; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 2,006; 5/18–5/24/2020, n = 1,975, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
By
generation2
By
vaccination
adoption
By income
53%
of baby boomers are
doing out-of-home
activities
47%
of medium-income
households are doing
out-of-home activities
51%
of people who are
unvaccinated are doing
out-of-home activities
Consumers engaging in ‘normal’ out-of-home activities,1 % of respondents
Consumer engagement in out-of-home activities increased
meaningfully since February but declined slightly since August
45
48
33
36
36
27
20
Sept 2020
Nov 2020
Oct 2021
Feb 2021
Aug 2021
June 2020
May 2020
43
51
Vaccinated Unvaccinated
39 39
44
53
Gen Z Gen X
Millennials Baby boomers3
46 47
41
Low (<$50k) High (>$100k)
Medium
($50k–100k)

29.
McKinsey & Company 29
Out-of-home activities done in the past 2 weeks1
% shown for respondents who engaged in the activity at least once prior to COVID-19
Out-of-home/homebody economy | Current as of October 2021
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095; 2/18–2/22/2021, n = 2,076, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
1. Q: Did you leave your house for the following activities over the past 2 weeks?
Social
Personal
care
Entertain-
ment
56
26
28
28
31
35
47
54
51
Dine in at a restaurant or bar
Get together with family
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
Go out for family entertainment
Go to a hair or nail salon
Attend an indoor cultural event
Attend an outdoor event
Go to the gym or fitness studio
Get together with friends
62
88
75
41
34
41
39
17
32
22
25
Use public transportation
Go to a shopping mall
Work outside my home
Shop for groceries/necessities
Shop for non-necessities
Travel more than 2 hours by car
Travel by airplane
Stay in a hotel
Use ride-sharing service
Rent a short-term home
Travel by train
Work
Shopping
Transport/
travel
12
15
7
16
15
11
6
10
9
12
10
14
19
18
21
16
11
17
19
21
≥50%
<50%
Change >10 pp
Change from
Feb 2021,
percentage points
Change from
Feb 2021,
percentage points
Since February, consumer engagement increased outside of the home
with notable spikes in social, dining, and fitness activities

30.
McKinsey & Company 30
Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID,1 % of respondents
Out-of-home/homebody economy | Current as of October 2021
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
Change >2 pp
25
10
9
14
14
13
15
6
7
6
5
Worked more from home
Decided to change jobs
Set up a gym at home
Moved into a smaller home
Started homeschooling children3
Renovated/remodeled my home
Moved into a bigger home
Set up a specific work-from-home space
Got a new pet at home (eg, dog, cat)
Bought a property
Sold a property
Work/study
change
Oct 2021
Pet adoption
House move
Home
renovation
Investments/
divestments
Total2
Change from
Feb 2021,
percentage points
15
36
12
31
10
1. Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis?
2. Total percentage of people who choose option(s) in the category.
3. Data about starting homeschooling not available from Feb 2021.
Home renovations and job switching are elevated from February
2021
−1
−2
1
2
4
1
1
1
1
3
N/A

31.
McKinsey & Company 31
Three themes are emerging among US consumers for the 2021
holiday shopping season
Expected strong demand
and omnichannel shopping
Consumer demand over the
holidays will likely be strong and
increasingly omnichannel
Spend pulled forward Loyalty switching at play
Consumers are spending earlier than
before, due to potential product
shortages, shipping delays, and
increased excitement to shop
Consumers are likely to switch
retailers and brands when products
are unavailable; companies will need
to prioritize consumer loyalty
1 2 3
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021

32.
McKinsey & Company 32
While consumers have mixed attitudes toward the upcoming
holidays, higher-income consumers and millennials are excited
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021
1. Q: Which best describes your general attitude toward the holiday shopping season? Selected from "Anxious," "Stressed," "Neutral," "Eager," "Excited," and "Other.“
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Consumer attitudes toward the 2021 holiday shopping season,1 % of respondents
By income By generation2
36
28 33 27
26
25
33
52
38
47
34
21
Gen Z Gen X
Millennials Baby
boomers3
30
36
34
Overall
Excited,
eager
Neutral
Stressed,
anxious
35 31
21
40
38
29
25 31
50
Low (<$50k) Medium
($50k–100k)
High (>$100k)
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years

33.
McKinsey & Company 33
Spending is expected to be strong in the fourth quarter, particularly
for the discretionary, travel, and entertainment categories
Estimated year-over-year growth,1 % growth
1. Estimates are based on an analysis of historical credit- or debit-card spending data at the category level and expert analysis of current trends
2. Mass, cosmetics, discount stores, drug stores and pharmacies, grocery stores, home, out-of-home entertainment, pet supplies, restaurants, retail apparel, software and electronics, sporting apparel, travel, wholesale clubs
3. Cosmetics, home, pet supplies, retail apparel, software and electronics, sporting apparel
4. Restaurants, out-of-home entertainment, and travel.
5. Online portion of the consumer-spending categories.
Consumer
spending2
Discretionary
spending3
Travel and
entertainment spending4
E-commerce
spending5
2021 Q4 vs
2019 Q4
2021 Q4 vs
2020 Q4
7 11 8
40
9 26 25
-2
Source: Affnity Solutions credit-card and debit-card spend data from February 2019 to August 2021; Facteus debit-card spend data from February 2019 to August 2021; Stackline Amazon spend data from
February 2019 to August 2021
Strong Holiday Demand | Current as of August 2021

34.
McKinsey & Company 34
On a year-over-year basis, Q4 spend on many
discretionary categories could see double-digit growth
Source: Affinity Solutions credit-card and debit-card spend Feb 2019–Aug 2021; Facteus debit-card spend data for Feb 2019–Aug 2021; Stackline Amazon spend data for Feb 2019–Aug 2021
Year-over-year spending,
forecasted Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
Discretionary categories
Restaurants
Sporting apparel1
Home1
Cosmetics1
Pet supplies1
Retail apparel1
Out-of-home entertainment
Telecom/cable
Travel
Software and electronics1
Total discretionary
Year-over-year spending,
forecasted Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020
Essentials categories
Total essentials
Drugstores and pharmacies1
Grocery stores1
Wholesale clubs
Mass
Discount stores
1. Includes Amazon sales.
>5%
< −5% >10%
< −10% −5% to 5%
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of August 2021

35.
McKinsey & Company 35
Holiday travel will likely increase in 2021 relative to 2020,
especially among higher-income consumers
1. Q: What best describes what you expect to do for the holidays this year [2021]? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Q: What best describes your holiday get-togethers last year [2020]? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
3. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above.
4. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
14
30
18
39
Will travel to and attend a large get-together
with family and friends
Will travel to a limited family get-together
Will not travel but will have a family/friends
get-together outside my immediate family
Do not plan to travel and will limit getting
together to immediate family only
Change by annual income Change by generation3
1 9 6
6 5 5 9 4
6 6 9 9 1 12
8 8
−3 0 −1 −3 −1 −8
−2 3
−8 −11 −16 −7 −9 −10
−11 −15
Medium
($50k–
100k)
Low
(<$50k)
High
(>$100k) Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers4
Change
from 2020,2
percentage
points
Holiday plans in 20211
% of respondents
< −5 Between −5 and 5 >5
Difference from all respondents, percentage points
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021

36.
McKinsey & Company 36
Compared with pre-COVID-19 levels, consumers plan to attend
slightly fewer in-person holiday events
1. Q: About how many in-person holiday-related events do you attend in a typical year without COVID-19?
2. Q: Compared with the number of in-person events you attended pre-COVID-19, about how many in-person events do you expect to attend over the holidays this coming year [2021]?
3. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above.
4. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
6.7
4.0
2.7
Family gatherings
Work-related gatherings
Parties with friends
Event type
Between −1 and 1
< −1 >1
Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers4
Generational cut3
7.8 8.9 6.5 4.7
5.2 5.9 3.7 2.1
3.3 4.9 2.8 0.5
Difference in
number vs
pre-COVID-19
−0.5
−0.8
−0.5
Holiday-related events consumers attended1 or expect to attend2 in 2021
Average number of events
Difference from all respondents, percentage points
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021

37.
McKinsey & Company 37
Consumers have been shopping heavily omnichannel since the
COVID-19 pandemic started
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of August 2021
1. Q: Which best described how you have researched the following categories over the last 3 months?
34
32
30
25
25
24
21
21
21
20
18
17
17
16
15
16
14
14
60
61
64
63
62
69
64
65
67
59
64
69
65
67
69
60
71
64
6
7
6
12
13
7
15
14
12
21
18
14
18
17
16
24
15
22
Footwear
Pet food and supplies
Fitness and wellness services
Home improvement, gardening supplies
Groceries
Household supplies
Personal-care products
Skin care and makeup
Vitamins, supplements, OTC medicine
Kitchen and dining
Jewelry
Home decoration and furniture
Apparel
Accessories
Toys and baby supplies
Books, magazines, newspapers
Sports and outdoors equipment, supplies
Consumer electronics
Research and purchase only in-store Omnichannel Research and purchase only online
Product research and purchase by channel over the last 3 months1
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 8/25–8/31/2021, n = 2,004, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years

38.
McKinsey & Company 38
Consumers report planning to use a heavily omnichannel
approach for holiday research
37
33
33
27
25
21
16
15
10
Browsing in stores
Emails from relevant retailers
Brand websites
Social media
Retailer websites
Advertisements on TV or streaming media
Offline advertisements2
Browsing through holiday markets
Browsing in pop-up stores
Generational cut3
Gen Z
34
30
Millennials
37
28
Gen X
38
26
Baby
boomers4
39
18 14 11 3
18 17 17 13
13 18 16 30
60 50 33 11
22
23 30 37 37
14 17 14 14
36 33 28 18
Research channels
Between −3 and 3
< −3 >3
Difference from all respondents, percentage points
1. Q: Which channels are you planning to use to get new ideas and do research for your holiday shopping? Please select top 3.
2. Offline advertisements include catalogs, fliers, magazines, and newspaper advertisements.
3. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above.
4. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Consumer research plans by channel for holiday 20211
% of all respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021

39.
McKinsey & Company 39
Social media is influencing a majority of consumers’ holiday-buying
decisions and inspires over 80 percent of younger consumers
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
1. Q: How much influence do you expect social media to have on your holiday-purchase decisions this season? Selected from respondents who chose “significant influence” or “some influence.” Q: Which channels do you think will
influence your holiday purchase decisions? Asked of respondents indicating social media will influence their 2021 holiday purchases.
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Expected influence by social media on 2021 holiday purchases, 1 % of respondents by generation2
Overall Gen Z Millennials Gen X
67
57 52
33
58
Baby boomers
44
67 63 61
87
71
60 64
36
83
76
59
43
27
60
66
35
25
4
25
Instagram
Facebook YouTube
All social media¹ TikTok
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021

40.
McKinsey & Company 40
Consumers say they plan to shop more online as well as in person
47
24
27
Shop more online
Shop more in person
Shop earlier
Income cut
Gen Z
Millen-
nials Gen X
Baby
boom-
ers3
Shopping behaviors
Between −3 and 3
< −3 >3
Difference from all respondents, percentage points
1. Q: Please select all the ways you anticipate your holiday shopping might be different compared to last year. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Anticipated shopping behavior change for holiday 20211
% of all respondents Generational cut2
53 49
49 39
29 32 20 17
27 29 29 23
40 46 56
24 24 24
26 28 28
Medium
($50k–
100k)
Low
(<$50k)
High
(>$100k)
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021

41.
McKinsey & Company 41
1. Q: Do you plan to shop for the holidays earlier or later in 2021 compared to last year’s holiday season (in 2020)? Possible answers: “significantly earlier”; “slightly earlier”; “starting at about the same time”; “slightly later”; “significantly
later”; “I am not planning to do any holiday season shopping.” Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
7
39
52 51
9
Low
(<$50k)
42
Medium
($50k–100k)
50
40
10
High
(>$100k)
43
About the
same time
48
Later 9
Overall
Earlier
Overall By income By generation2
54
37
9
Gen Z
37
50
Baby
boomers
Millennials
13
45
48
63
8
Gen X
31
5
Compared with last year, over 40 percent of consumers plan to
start holiday shopping earlier
Holiday shopping start compared with last year1
% of respondents with intent of holiday shopping
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
15 7 5 1 5 9 16
9
No intent
of holiday
shopping
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021

42.
McKinsey & Company 42
Almost half of consumers have started holiday shopping already
45
42
11
2
I already started
In November
In December
In January
3
2
−2
−3
22
31
47
75–100% of my shopping
50–74% of my shopping
1–49% of my shopping
Change from
Oct 2020
percentage points
1. Q: When do you plan to start your shopping for the seasonal holidays this year? Excludes 9% of consumers who indicated they do not plan to shop for the holidays this year. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Q: How much of your holiday season shopping have you done so far? Asked of respondents who have indicated already started.
Holiday shopping timing 20211
% of respondents with intent for holiday shopping
Holiday season shopping status, 20212
% of respondents having already started
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095; 10/23–10/27/2020, n = 2,021, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021

43.
McKinsey & Company 43
US consumers plan to shop earlier because of supply-chain issues
and unexpected COVID-19 challenges
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
1. Q: What are the primary reasons you plan to shop earlier for the holidays in 2021?
2. Of the 43% of consumers who stated they plan to shop earlier in 2021.
Reasons for consumers to start shopping earlier in 2021,1 % of respondents2
45
are concerned about
shipping lead time
51
are concerned about
availability
29
just want to do
something fun
right now
38
of high-income and
millennial consumers
want to do something
fun right now
Concerns
44
are concerned about
unexpected challenges
from COVID-19
Excitement
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021

44.
McKinsey & Company 44
Supply-chain challenges are expected to persist through and well
past this year’s holiday shopping season
Higher freight
costs
Port delays on the
inbound are now running
over and taking up to 30
days to unload; costs
across ocean, middle
mile, and last
mile rising amid
tightening capacity
Supply
assurance risk
64% of the international
sourcing community
believes volatility in
supply will continue to
lead to fragmentation
of retailers’ supplier
networks, potentially
resulting in additional
costs
Warehousing
rate volatility
Warehousing vacancies
have dropped to the
lowest levels on record,
leading to higher costs
per square foot, and
wages are expanding to
peak pandemic levels
Sustainability and
circularity
65% of consumers say
they want to buy
purpose-driven brands
that advocate
sustainability, and 24%
have followed through
with their wallet, placing
additional emphasis on
end-to-end supply-chain
visibility
Demand-driven
inventory pressures
As consumer spending
shifts from services to
goods for the first time in
over 60 years, this is
placing pressure on
traditional inventory
management methods,
which need to be nimble
and agile
Source: Achim Berg, Lara Haug, Saskia Hedrich, and Karl-Hendrik Magnus, “Time for change: How to use the crisis to make fashion sourcing more agile and sustainable,“ May 2020, McKinsey.com;
McKinsey CPO survey; McKinsey analysis
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021

45.
McKinsey & Company 45
Labor shortage is at record-high levels, which are likely to persist
into 2022
1. Number of job openings divided by the sum of total employment and number of job openings.
6.0
1.0
5.0
0
2.0
3.0
4.0
7.0
US job openings rate1
%, through Aug 2021
2017 2018 2019 2020 Aug
2021
132
140
130
134
136
138
146
142
148
144
150
152
154
Nonfarm payroll employment
Millions, through Sept 2021
153
148
5
2017 2018 2019 2020 Sept
2021
Early shelter
in place due
to COVID-19
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021

46.
McKinsey & Company 46
This holiday season, roughly half of consumers expect to shop at
different retailers than in 2020
16
14
14
More value for money
Safety
Check more
things off my
list at once
Change from
Oct 2020
Percentage
points
−1
−14
−1
47
44
27
24
19
Shop more online
Shop earlier
Shop at a different place
Shop more in person
Shop more at local/independent stores
1. Q: Please select all the ways you anticipate your holiday shopping might be different compared to last year. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Reasons to change place to
shop during holiday season
% of respondents
Anticipated holiday shopping behaviors1
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095; 10/23–10/27/2020, n = 2,021, sampled and weighted to
match the US general population 18+ years
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021

47.
McKinsey & Company 47
Consumers prioritize better value and convenience when deciding
where to shop; younger consumers seek better quality
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 US Consumer Pulse Survey, 10/9–10/15/2021, n = 2,095, sampled and weighted to match the US general population 18+ years
Event types
40
20
34
18
31
16
18
23
15
12
14
7
Ability to purchase most gifts from one place
Better prices/promotions
Better shipping/delivery costs
Product availability
Convenience
Easy to shop across store and online
Better quality
Ability to see products in person
Offers unique items
Cleaner/better hygiene measures
Supporting local businesses
Companies treating its employees well
Generational cut2
34
45
20
42
17
22
13
3
9
15
10
Gen Z
28
32
23
26
15
14
15
12
18
33
15
23
Millennials
29
34
20
30
17
20
14
10
18
33
15
19
Gen X
31
42
20
32
15
15
15
8
18
20
11
19
Baby
boomers
15
1. Q: Please tell us what your primary considerations will be when deciding where to shop. Please select up to 3.
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are 45–54 years old, and baby boomers are 55 years old and above. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Between −3 and 3
< −3 >3
Difference from all respondents, percentage points
Availability
Value
Convenience
Quality
Health/hygiene
Purpose-driven
Uniqueness
Primary considerations when deciding where to shop1
% of respondents
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021

48.
McKinsey & Company 48
Actions retailers can take to retain consumer loyalty
Since consumers are
already shopping for
the holidays, it’s critical
to make sure
promotions happen
early
Prioritize fulfillment
Encourage consumers
to order early
Enable consumers to
check whether items
are in stock
When unexpected
supply-chain issues
pop up, communicate
alternative options as
well as dates when
items will come back in
stock
Turn to social media
early to influence
consideration and
purchase
Given how
omnichannel
consumers shop,
invest more in social
and digital channels
Prioritize positive and
meaningful customer
experiences to
strengthen brand and
reputation
Look beyond “saving
the sale” to focus on
creating brand
relationships and
enabling future sales
opportunities
With employee
retention at risk and
retail having famously
high turnover rates
even during non-
pandemic times, find
creative ways to hold
onto existing staff
Prioritize procuring the
most essential items
for this holiday season
Invest in a resilience
mindset and prepare
for new cost realities—
eg, diversify suppliers,
localize certain
fulfillment, and build
greater real-time
visibility into inventory
positions
Face supply-
chain pain with
short-term fixes
and long-term
planning
Take care of your
workforce
Get creative to
drive meaningful
experience
Make it a social
holiday
Move up the
promotion
schedule
Communicate
early and often
1 2 5
4
3 6
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021

49.
McKinsey & Company 49
Examples of actions taken by retailers to retain consumers this
holiday season
Face supply-
chain pain with
short-term fixes
and long-term
planning
Take care of your
workforce
Get creative to
drive meaningful
experience
Make it a social
holiday
Move up the
promotion
schedule
Communicate
early and often
1 2 5
4
3 6
Costco has chartered
three of its own ships
to move goods
between Asia and
North America next
year
Walmart provided
employees who
worked on
Thanksgiving a free
meal and offered them
15 percent off a variety
of products in addition
to their usual 10
percent employee
discount
Carter’s prioritized
customer loyalty with
an email saying, “With
so much cyber cheer, it
could take a little extra
time to ship but we’re
working like elves to
make it as fast as
possible!” and offering
a discount on their
next order
Old Navy and other
clothing retailers are
creating TikTok videos,
hoping they will go
viral to drive sales to
younger consumers
Amazon started
offering limited-time
discounts throughout
October and
November
In October, the CEO of
children’s apparel
maker Hanna
Andersson emailed
customers to alert
them of potential
inventory challenges
and suggest they place
orders very early
Strong holiday outlook | Current as of October 2021
Examples