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AlexChausovsky_Inside3DPrintingSingapore_2015
- 1. Information | Analytics | Expertise
© 2014 IHS / ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
THE IMPACT OF 3D PRINTING ON
INDUSTRIALMANUFACTURING
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
JANUARY 28, 2015
ALEX CHAUSOVSKY
SENIOR PRINCIPAL ANALYST
INDUSTRIAL AUTOMATION
+1 (512) 582 2012
ALEX.CHAUSOVSKY@IHS.COM
- 2. © 2014 IHS
Contents
About IHS 3
CapEx, Machinery Production and Automation Equipment Overview 6
3D Printing Technology and Capabilities Overview 11
The Threats and Opportunities for 3D Printing in Industrial Manufacturing 23
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 3. © 2014 IHS
Alex Chausovsky
Manager & Principal Analyst
IHS Technology – Industrial Automation
Shaping the Future with Super-Efficient Electric Motors
February 27th, 2014
• Introduction to IHS
• Introduction to Electric Motors and
Industrial Energy Efficiency
• Industrial Motors Market Update
About IHS
- 4. © 2014 IHS
IHS - Leading information, advanced analytics and deep
expertise
IHS
Since 1959
Headquartered in
Englewood, CO
(traded on the NYSE)
8,000+ colleagues
in 30+ countries
speaking 50+ languages
Serve businesses and
governments in 165+
countries worldwide
70% of the US Fortune 1000
85% of the Global Fortune 500
Small businesses & enterprises
IHS is supported by 140+ offices around the world
United States United Kingdom Canada India Singapore Malaysia
China France Germany Switzerland Poland Japan Belarus Brazil
South Korea Russian Federation United Arab Emirates Norway Australia
Spain South Africa Mexico Hong Kong Netherlands Thailand
Taiwan Italy Denmark Sweden
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 5. © 2014 IHS
IHS Business Lines
• Economics
• Country Risk
• Operational Excellence
and Risk Management
• Product Design
• Supply Chain
• Aerospace & Defense
• Automotive
• Chemicals
• Technology
• Energy
• Financial Services
• Maritime
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 6. © 2014 IHS
Alex Chausovsky
Manager & Principal Analyst
IHS Technology – Industrial Automation
Shaping the Future with Super-Efficient Electric Motors
February 27th, 2014
• Introduction to IHS
• Introduction to Electric Motors and
Industrial Energy Efficiency
• Industrial Motors Market Update
CapEx, Machinery Production and Automation Equipment Updates
- 7. © 2014 IHS
CapEx Analysis
Improved Macroeconomic Performance
Government Investment
Profits for End-Users
Transport & Defence Budgets
Consumer and
Business Spending
Capital Expenditure
Spend in 2014
5.7%
Growth
Machinery
Production
Automation Products
substantial portion in MP
Automation Products
Direct to End-Users
(Retrofit)
Building, Land,
Services & Other
5%
Of Spend
52%
Of Spend
43%
Of Spend
$3.8
Trillion
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 8. © 2014 IHS
Americas Europe Asia Pacific World % of world total
CAGR
(2012-2018)
Agricultural Machinery 11.1% 7.4%
$51.5bn $78.7bn
Food, Beverage & Tobacco Machinery 3.3% 4.4%
$7.8bn $14.6bn
Furnaces & Furnace Burners 1.3% 4.8%
$4.4bn $9.4bn
Machine Tools 6.2% 2.0%
$6.9bn $56.5bn
Materials Handling 12.9% 5.5%
$21.6bn $93.4bn
Packaging Machinery 2.7% 5.5%
$4.6bn $14.2bn
Paper & Paperboard Machinery 1.3% 1.3%
$3.0bn $6.0bn
Printing Machinery 1.3% 1.9%
$3.1bn $6.1bn
Robotics 0.8% 2.4%
$1.7bn $6.7bn
Rubber & Plastics Machinery 2.5% 2.3%
$5.0bn $13.2bn
Semiconductor Machinery 2.2% 2.4%
$10.6bn $17.6bn
Textile Machinery 2.5% 2.5%
$1.0bn $23.4bn
Woodworking Machinery 0.8% 2.4%
$1.3bn $3.6bn
$5.9bn
$13.9bn
$7.8bn
Trend Line
(2012 -2018)
$81.6bn
$21.9bn
$10.1bn
$11.4bn
$4.5bn
$19.6bn
$38.4bn
$27.2bn
$6.6bn
$30.8bn
MACHINERY PRODUCTION SUMMARY
≈ $170B
≈ $50B
≈ $95B
≈ $197B
≈ $40B
≈ $38B
≈ $34B
≈ $38B
≈ $1.7 Trillion of Machinery produced in 2014
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 9. © 2014 IHS
MACHINERY PRODUCTION BY REGION
Americas Europe Asia Pacific
2013
$330bn $500bn $691bn
2018
$400bn $599bn $988bn
32.9%
21.7%
45.4%
% of 2013 global
machinery production
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 10. © 2014 IHS
2014 Key Point Summary – Industrial Automation
$185.3b
2014 Equipment Revenue
28.8%
Automation Equipment31.1%
Motors & Motor Controls40.1%
Power Transmission Equipment
2014 Regional Sales Growth
Americas
6.9%
EMEA
4.3%
Asia
7.7%
Japan
5.4%
2014 Market Drivers
45%
IAE Sales into
Discrete Manufacturing
Machinery Production
6.3% Growth
41%
IAE Sales into
Process Manufacturing
Capital Expenditure
5.4% Growth
3.1%
Global GDP
Growth
$47.4 billion
Motors
$31.8 billion
Discrete Controllers
$26.9 billion
Motor Controls
$36.5 billion
Linear & Fluid Products
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 12. © 2014 IHS
The Impact of 3D Printing Technology
A Transformative Manufacturing Process
3D Printing, also called Additive Manufacturing, “adds” materials to create
products, rather than “subtracting” them as is typical in traditional
manufacturing processes. This presents significant potential cost savings to
manufacturers that invest in the technology.
Products are designed using complex computer software platforms and
are then printed layer by layer, allowing for features that were not
possible with traditional machine or human manufacturing techniques.
Currently, the biggest drawbacks for 3D Printing are size and speed
limitations, which prevent the technology from replacing many assembly line
manufacturing processes.
Although the technology has existed since the 1980s, 3D Printing has really gone
mainstream in the last five years. Some industries that the technology has
penetrated include:
Consumer Products: Clothing, Shoes, Jewelry, Toys, Home Décor, Electronics
Medical Products: Joint Replacements, Prosthetics, Crowns / Invisalign Braces
Industrial Products: Tools, Molds, Fuel Injection Nozzles, Gas Turbine Parts, Pumps
What benefits and drawbacks does 3D Printing technology
have compared to traditional manufacturing techniques?
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 13. © 2014 IHS
Overview of 3D Printing/Additive Manufacturing Technologies
Vat Photopolymerization: Stereolithography (SLA), Digital Light Processing (DLP)
• Liquid photopolymers, either plastics or wax, are selectively cured, normally using UV light.
Powder Bed Fusion: Selective Laser Sintering (SLS), Direct Metal Laser Sintering (DMLS),
Selective Heat Sintering (SHS) and Electron Beam Melting (EBM)
• Thermal energy (lasers) used to fuse materials, either metals or plastics, in a powder bed.
Directed Energy Deposition: Laser Metal Deposition (LMD)
• Thermal energy (lasers) used to fuse materials, either metals or plastics, as they are
deposited
Binder Jetting: Powder Bed and Inkjet Head (PBIH), Plaster-based Printing (PP)
• Metal or plastic powders bound together using a specialized glue and then cured in an
oven for post processing.
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 14. © 2014 IHS
Overview of 3D Printing/Additive Manufacturing Technologies
Material Extrusion: Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM), Fused Filament Fabrication (FFF)
• Two plastic cords (build & support material) extruded through a heated nozzle that melts
the plastic and traces out a pattern. FDM is the basis for most home-use systems.
Material Jetting: Multi-jet Modeling (MJM)
• Droplets of plastic build material are selectively deposited on a platform and cured by UV
light.
Sheet Lamination: Ultrasonic Consolidation (UC), Laminated Object Manufacturing (LOM)
• Older technology in which sheets of material - paper, plastic or metal - are bonded
together to form an object.
Coming in 2016: Hewlett Packard’s Multi Jet Fusion (MJF) technology
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 15. © 2014 IHS
Implementation of
3D printing
technology into our
everyday lives, both
personal and
business
Integration of 3D
printing technology with
traditional manufacturing
processes, materials and
software
Invention of
technology and
development of first
hardware prototype
1987 2010 2025
Metals & other industrial materials
Wide Adoption by
Consumers & Businesses
Industrial Manufacturing
Medical and
Biotechnology
Applications
Titanium, Stainless Steel
Nickel and Cobalt Chrome Alloys
Aluminum, Gold, Inconel
Epoxy resins, Ceramics, Sand
Carbon Fiber (new)
Plastics
ABS, Nylon, PLA, HIPS
Polycarbonates
Glass-filled Polyamide
Photopolymers and Wax
Time
TechnologyCapabilities
~2000
The Impact of 3D Printing Technology
Biomaterials
Moldable Polymers
Human Cells and Tissues
Synthetic Tissues
Rapid
Prototyping
2020
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 16. © 2014 IHS
• Increases design innovation by creating new structures and shapes; engineers are
able to take an idea, create a CAD model, and have a part in their hands by the next
day. They are then able to see exactly how it fits into the piece of equipment they are
building. It also improves the design process by allowing for new combinations of
materials.
• Speeds up time to market by making the idea to prototype cycle much shorter.
Necessary adjustments to prototypes are made quickly and new prototypes are
printed within hours or days, which really speeds up the entire design process.
• Reduces development costs and waste by using less materials, and increases
personalization of products for customers, without additional cost increases.
• Reverse-engineering of old, outdated parts is possible through digital scanning. The
part might be 20 years old and there was never a CAD model for it. The engineers can
scan it, turn it into a CAD model and then 3D print it and have complete repeatability.
The Impact of 3D Printing Technology
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 17. © 2014 IHS
Expiring Patents
• In 2009, expiration of several foundation patents for Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM)
enabled the emergence of lower-cost desktop printers from companies like Makerbot,
as well as consumer-facing 3D printer service providers such as Shapeways.
• Another major shift occurring as foundation patents on other 3D printing technologies
expire, lowering costs for Stereolithography (SLA), Selective Laser Sintering (SLS),
and 3DP from MIT, and widening the range of capabilities available to users.
• Patents on selective laser melting (SLM) expires in late 2016.
• This is resulting in increased competition among SLA, SLS, other printer suppliers as
new entrants penetrate the market in the coming years.
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 18. © 2014 IHS
Market Data: 3D Printing Industry Growth Projections
Source: IHS Technology (January 2015)
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
Revenue Forecast for the 3D Printing Industry from 2014 to 2020
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Y2014 Y2015 Y2016 Y2017 Y2018 Y2019 Y2020
Consumer Systems and Parts Industrial Systems and Parts Service Providers Materials Tooling
Revenues($B)
- 19. © 2014 IHS
Market Data: Additive Manufacturing Value by Sector
Source: IHS Technology (January 2015)
Automotive, 16.0%
Aerospace, 14.0%
Industrial, 19.0%Consumer Products &
Electronics, 21.0%
Medical & Dental,
12.0%
Academia, 7.0%
Military & Defense,
8.0%
Architecture, 2.0% Other, 1.0%
Additive Manufacturing Sales by Sector
2014 Projections
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 20. © 2014 IHS
Suppliers – Industrial Grade 3D Printers
• 3D Systems*
• Arcam*
• Beijing Tiertime*
• Carima
• CMET
• Concept Laser
• DWS
• EOS*
• Envisiontec*
• ExOne*
• Mcor*
• Optomec
• Rapid Shape
• Shaanxi Hengtong
• SLM Solutions
• Stratasys*
• Voxeljet*
• Wuhan Binhu
* Top printer manufacturers own over 40% of the 3D printer market,
and more than 90% of the industrial grade 3D printer market.
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 21. © 2014 IHS
• Hewlett Packard
• Canon
• Epson
• Xerox
• 3M
• Google
• Microsoft
• Apple
• Samsung
• IBM
• Amazon
Big Names Getting Involved in the Industry
Traditional 2D printer manufacturers
that are planning on entering the market
in the near future.
These players have deep pockets and
a lot of expertise in printing technology.
They are focusing on addressing the
current limitations of the technology,
namely speed, size and cost issues.
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 22. © 2014 IHS
3D Printing Challenges and Limitations
• Prohibitive Printer and Materials Costs
• Speed and Size limitations
• Intellectual Property Concerns
• Environmental Impact
• Effect on Traditional Manufacturing Jobs
• Required Certifications for Medical/Aerospace
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 23. © 2014 IHS
The Threats and Opportunities for3D Printing in Industrial Manufacturing
- 24. © 2014 IHS
Threat: Replacement of MT and Plastics Machinery
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Metal Cutting Machines Metal Forming Machines Plastic Machinery
Revenues($M)UnitVolume
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Metal Cutting Machines 428337 440899 474609 424814 448071 472149 497251 521029
Metal Forming Machines 532374 512743 506927 535857 573819 612734 654446 694128
Plastic Machinery 291526 298168 309413 320246 350020 381353 415081 448435
Total 1252237 1251809 1290949 1280917 1371910 1466236 1566778 1663592
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 25. © 2014 IHS
3D Printing vs. Machine Tooling and Plastics Injection Molding
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 26. © 2014 IHS
Threat: Replacement of MT and Plastics Machinery
Motors & Drives, 18%
Mechanics for Electric
Drive Systems, 14%
Pneumatics, 7%
Hydraulic Drives &
Valves, 9%
Linear & Rotary
Handling, 9%
Automation & Motion
Control Products, 26%
Machine Safety
Products, 1%
Low Voltage
Products, 7%
Machine Vision
Products, 1%
Sensors, 8%
Automation Product Breakdown
Machine Tools and Plastics Machinery
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 27. © 2014 IHS
Opportunity and Threat in One: Hybrid & Large Scale
Above: DMG MORI’s LASERTEC 65 3D
Right: Sciaky’s EBAM AM System
Others: Mazak Integrex i-400AM, etc.
Image Source: SciakyImage Source: DMG MORI
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 28. © 2014 IHS
Opportunity: Increased Sales of Automation Components
More than 70,000 personal 3D printers
were sold in 2013. This number is
expected to grow to over 100,000 this
year, and rapidly over the next
decade. Each printer contains one or
more electric motors.
There were nearly 10,000 industrial
grade 3D printers sold in 2013. The
potential for future growth in industrial
applications exceeds that of the
consumer space. Each machine has
multiple servo motors.
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 29. © 2014 IHS
Opportunity: Production of Automation Equipment using
Additive Manufacturing Systems
Nearly 50 million low voltage motors
were made in 2013. The leading motor
manufacturers are experimenting with
potentially using additive manufacturing
techniques in the future.
Industrial electronics, such as variable
speed drives, represent a large and
rapidly growing market. In 2013, nearly
20 million drives were sold worldwide.
With the advent of 3D printed circuitry,
will it be possible to print drive parts?
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE
- 30. © 2014 IHS
Alex Chausovsky
Senior Principal Analyst
Industrial Automation
IHS Technology
+1 512 582 2012
Alex.Chausovsky@ihs.com
Thank you very much!
INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE