In the first half of 2016, the US economy skirted close to recession territory but so far has registered positive growth. What are the major forces that seem to be driving the slow-growth economy? Is the economy getting stronger? Or, will we hit recession territory before the end of the year?

1. CAPITOL HILL CAMPUS:
EVALUATING A SLUGGISH MID-YEAR
ECONOMY
Bruce Yandle
June 2, 2016

2. -3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
US Real GDP Growth
2006 -2016

4. • Slow Growth or
Recession?
• Geographic Impact?
• Are Political Parties
Obsolete?
The June 2016 Situation
Cecil Turtle - Looney Tunes Wiki -
Wikialooneytunes.wikia.co

5. Chronic Illnesses Affecting the Economy
• Low population and productivity growth
– Aging, retiring population. Declining average
worker age.
– Growing regulatory entanglement
– Declining capital investment
• High and growing debt
• Massive prison population
• Massive illegal alien population

8. Four Gale Winds Affecting the
Economy
1. Strong dollar—Low exports, slow
manufacturing.
2. Slow China economy—Low exports, world
commodity glut, slowing developing
economies.
3. Falling energy prices—increased bankruptcies,
slow petroleum export economies.
4. Crazy season—Rambunctious campaign
promises, rising uncertainty, delayed capital
spending.

12. Here’s the picture that I see for 2016:
 GDP growth for the year will hit 1.8%. 2015 GDP
growth was 2.4%.
 Interest rates will nudge up no more than 100
basis points.
 Inflation will remain low.
 Construction material prices—lumber, wall board,
steel—will remain stable.
 Constrained by availability of skilled labor,
construction activity will hit a peak and hold.
 The pace of manufacturing activity will accelerate
from hardly moving to slow.
Put another way, this will be a ho-hum year for the
nation, with wide variation across states and regions.
And 2017 will look a lot like it.
Welcome to the slow lane.

13. NASA. April – October, 2012.
The Geographic Imprint

14. Nationwide, 214 counties, or 7% of 3,069, had recovered in 2014 to prerecession levels on four
indicators: total employment, unemployment rate, size of economy, and median home values.
County recovery as of 2014 relative to 1/2008.
Employment, unemployment rate, GDP, median
housing value.

21. Are Political Parties
Obsolete?
A Few Tentative Thoughts
In recent years, however, the parties’ entire role and therefore their
power has been collapsing. If a candidate is clever enough and has
something to say, he or she can get direct access to the media. As
political entrepreneurs, most candidates now raise their own
financing and depend on money from the parties less and less.
Candidates form their own policy groups or court the flourishing idea
forums that span the political spectrum. Self-confident and ambitious
candidates put themselves forward for any office they desire, up to
and including the presidency, without seeking the approval of party
officials. Individual office-seekers form their own coalitions by
shopping for support among the smorgasbord of interest groups.
Gary Hart, “The Parties are Over,” Huffington Post, May 11, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gary-
hart/the-parties-are-over_b_2058.html.

22. A Program for Direct and Proxy
Voting in the Legislative Process
James C. Miller III, Public Choice, 7(1969) 107-113.
One marvels at the advancing technology of electronic
computers, indicating devices, and recording
equipment. Some, in fact, have predicted that within
20 or 30 years every home will have a console tied into
a computer upon which the children do their
homework, the housewife will make out her grocery
list, and the husband will pay the family’s bills. Such a
computer console also could be used to record political
decisions, giving each voter an opportunity to cast his
ballot on every issue and have it recorded through the
machine.

24. Bridging the gap between academic ideas and real-world problems