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BUSINESS VALUATION &
FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES
VALUE FOCUS
Exploration & Production
First Quarter 2018 // Region Focus: Eagle Ford
Q1: Eagle Ford 	
Q2: Permian Basin	
Q3: Bakken Shale
Q4: Marcellus and Utica
Executive Summary 2018
www.mercercapital.com
The oil and gas market has been steadily improving. Both production and prices have increased, and oil and
gas exploration and production companies are becoming more efficient allowing them to cut costs.
This quarter we take a look at the Eagle Ford Shale. While the Permian has been receiving the most attention,
given its low-cost economics and large well potential, the Eagle Ford (particularly its oil window) has increased
well production while dropping its costs. In this newsletter, we consider why companies are moving out of the
Eagle Ford region and are reducing the number of wells drilled despite the region’s untapped potential.
Contact Us
BUSINESS VALUATION &
FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES
Industry Segments
Mercer Capital serves the following industry segments:
•	 Exploration & Production
•	 Oil Field Services
•	 Midstream Operations
•	 Alternative Energy
Oil and Gas Industry Services
Mercer Capital provides business valuation and financial advisory services to
companies in the energy industry.
Services Provided
•	 Valuation of energy companies
•	 Transaction advisory for acquisitions and
divestitures
•	 Valuations for purchase accounting and
impairment testing
•	 Fairness and solvency opinions
•	 Litigation support for economic damages and
valuation and shareholder disputes
Bryce Erickson, ASA, MRICS
214.468.8400
ericksonb@mercercapital.com
Grant M. Farrell, ASA, CPA, ABV, CFF
214.468.8400
farrellg@mercercapital.com
Don Erickson, ASA
214.468.8400
ericksond@mercercapital.com
Taryn E. Burgess
901.322.9757
burgesst@mercercapital.com
Learn More about Mercer Capital &
our Oil and Gas Services at
mercercapital.com
Copyright © 2018 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the
publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged. Reporters requesting additional information or editorial comment should contact Barbara
Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Industry Focus is published quarterly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an informa-
tion service to our clients and friends. Those interested in specific guidance for legal or accounting matters should seek competent professional advice. Inquiries to discuss
specific valuation matters are welcomed. To add your name to our mailing list to receive this complimentary publication, visit our web site at www.mercercapital.com.
In This Issue
E&P Industry 	
Oil and Gas
Commodity Prices	 1
Too Good to Be True?	 2
Easing Concerns	 2
Overview	 3
Region Focus: Eagle Ford	
Overview	 4
Breakeven Prices	 4
Production	 5
2018 Plans	 6
Valuation Implications	 7
Market Valuations 
Transaction Activity	 8
Magnolia – Blank Check Company
Forms a New South Texas Producer	 9
Highest and
Best Economics	 9
Selected Public Company Information	10
Rig Count	 14
Mercer Capital	 18
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 1
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
The oil and gas market continued to show improvement in the first quarter of 2018. Positive momentum continued in
U.S. production growth, and prices increased from an average of $55 in Q4 2017 to an average of $63 in Q1 2018. At
the beginning of the quarter, Mercer Capital’s Grant Farrell said, “a repeat of 2017 would be a welcomed event,” and
it appears we are on track. Oil prices are ticking up, domestic production has increased to a 50-year high, and the U.S.
is exporting more crude oil than ever before.
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
DollarperMcf
DollarsperBarrel
WTI Brent Henry Hub
Source: Bloomberg
EP Industry
Oil and Gas
Commodity Prices
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 2
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
EP Industry
Too Good to Be True?
If you are like us, you can’t ignore the wary feeling in your gut that makes you ask, “Is it too good to be true?” According to
Reuters, global inventories could increase due to the rapid increase in production in the U.S. which “could well outweigh
any pick-up in demand.” Rig counts in 2018 were expected to increase to 945 active rigs. However, Baker Hughes
reports that we have already met this target and currently have 993 active rigs compared to 824 a year ago.
Have we already forgotten the lesson we learned in 2014 – too much supply, too fast leads to a decline in prices?
Additionally, what will happen to demand as transportation becomes more fuel efficient and we shift further away from
oil in favor of renewable energy resources?
Thankfully, we are not the only one asking these questions. A survey of oil and gas professionals in the February
2018 Issue of the Oil and Gas Journal showed that 63% of oil and gas senior professionals are optimistic about 2018.
However, this optimism does not stem from a forecasted favorable price environment. Rather, their confidence is
supported by the knowledge that they can now operate profitably in a $55 per barrel price environment. Oil and gas
exploration companies today are more cost efficient than ever. The collapse in prices in mid-2014 gave companies
two options: adapt to the new price environment or go away. Today we are left with a more cost-aware sector that
has used technology to reduce risks and cut costs. Even though the market moved into backwardation, oil and gas
professionals are still optimistic about the future.
Further, domestic EP companies today have the ability to quickly adjust their operations in response to price
changes. Jude Clemente, a recent contributor for Forbes recently wrote, “The U.S. has now become the world’s
swing oil producer and is the main factor that will limit how high prices can go.”
BP Chief Economist Spencer Dale recently responded to similar questions asked across the energy industry:
“will oil and gas lose dominance to renewable fuels in the future?” BP argues that crude oil demand will continue to
increase into the foreseeable future but will begin to reach a plateau in the next twenty years. While renewable energy
is the fastest growing energy source, developing nations across the world will drive energy demand in the future. The
mix of crude oil and renewable energy will shift, and crude oil will likely meet 85% of oil demand in 2040 instead of
94% of demand today. This does not, however, mean demand for crude oil will disappear.
Easing Concerns
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 3
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
EP Industry
Overview
The forecast for the oil and gas industry in 2018 was positive, and we seem to be meeting or even exceeding investor
expectations. The U.S. is expected to give up its title of the largest crude oil importer, and exports are expected to
continue growing as new pipelines and export terminals allow for increased capacity.
The positive momentum in the industry is being reflected in private company valuations both as a result of improved
earnings forecasts and reductions in risk. Growth in production and increases in price are increasing revenue, and
more of the top line is flowing down to net income as companies have cut costs. Earnings improvement is being
magnified by the recent tax cuts, which have significantly increased net income. Further, the risk profiles of EP com-
panies have improved as companies are better equipped to handle price volatility and EP companies are generally
taking on projects with shorter payback periods.
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 4
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
Eagle Ford
Overview
Breakeven Prices
The economics of oil and gas production varies by region. Mercer Capital focuses on trends in the Eagle Ford,
Permian, Bakken, and Marcellus and Utica plays. The cost of producing oil and gas depends on the geological
makeup of the reserve, depth of reserve, and cost to transport the raw crude to market. We can observe different
costs in different regions depending on these factors. This quarter we take a closer look at the Eagle Ford Shale.
The economics of the Eagle Ford Shale has been steadily improving for the past year. While the Permian has been
receiving the most attention, given its low-cost economics and large well potential, the Eagle Ford (particularly its oil
window) has increased well production while dropping its costs. However, based on recent announcements, many
companies are reducing the number of wells drilled in 2018 as compared to 2017.
As recently as a year ago, several companies and outlets reported breakeven oil price estimates in the low- to
mid-$40s. Recently, several operators in the Eagle Ford are estimating breakeven as low as $28 and many around
$35. This significant drop points to anticipated efficiencies in drilling and completion costs.
While positive, the trend is generally moving away from the Eagle Ford relative to other plays. IHS Markit, reported
that a key reason for the decline in activity in the Eagle Ford is due to the rising interest in the Permian Basin and
STACK/SCOOP plays, which have attracted the interest of key Eagle Ford players, including Pioneer Resources,
Devon Energy, and Marathon Oil. They said, “Only 1,415 new wells were brought online in 2016 compared to 2,717 in
2015 and 4,040 in 2014.”
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 5
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
Eagle Ford
Production
Even though operators are moving away from the region, production started increasing in September 2017 for the first
time since the fall in oil prices in mid-2014. Production in the Eagle Ford increased year-over-year from 1.25 mmboe/d in
March 2017 to 1.31 mmboe/d in March 2018. Additionally, operators are becoming more efficient and more oil is being
produced per rig than before.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
ThousandBarrelsperDay
Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Bakken
Source: EIA
Daily Production of Natural Gas
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 6
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
Eagle Ford
2018 Plans
Several companies (Sanchez, Chesapeake, and Carrizo) are decreasing their estimates for new wells compared to last
year but are increasing their capex budgets. Overall, EOG and Sanchez have increased their rig presence, but those
figures fluctuate even week-to-week. EOG is leading the way in its activity from well count to acreage. In terms of new
activity planned in 2018, it is the most aggressive of the four companies we follow (see table below). It’s also notable that
EOG continues to test its position in the Austin Chalk formation – completing four wells in Q4 2017.
Bill Thomas, EOG’s chairman and CEO, said, “EOG emerged from the industry downturn in 2017 with unprecedented
levels of efficiency and productivity, driving oil production volumes to record levels with capital expenditures approxi-
mately one half the prior peak.”
Carrizo’s strategy revolves around “multipads” wherever possible in the Eagle Ford. In 2018, Carrizo plans to complete
a 16-well multipad utilizing three completion crews. In addition, Carrizo sees more than 700 remaining PUDs in the core
of its Eagle Ford position at a 330-500 foot spacing profile (depending on the geology of the project area).
Chesapeake, meanwhile, continues to manage its balance sheet with asset sales and tempered activity which makes its
activity profile a little harder to discern.
Trends in the Eagle Ford
Trend Metrics EOG Sanchez Chesapeake Carrizo
2018 Total Capex Budget (Includes Eagle Ford) $5.4-5.8 Billion $1.27 Billion $2.0-2.4 Billion $750-800 Million
Change from 2017 +44% +45% -12% +27%
Eagle Ford 2018 Well Program Estimate (Net) 260 Wells 87 Wells 140 Wells 73 Wells
Change from 2017 Wells Completed +19.8% -38.3% -15.7% -11.0%
Eagle Ford Rigs as of 3/23/18 12 7 4 1
Change from 2017 +6 +3 -1 -1
Breakeven Prices in Eagle Ford per barrel $ NA $35 $30-40 $32
Net Acreage in Eagle Ford (Most Recent Estimate) 590,000 360,000 245,000 103,000
Source: Company Reports  ShaleExperts.com
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 7
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
Eagle Ford
Valuation Implications
Stock price performance over the last quarter seemed subpar for companies operating in the Eagle Ford, excluding
EOG. Over the past few years, valuation multiples fluctuated the region as enterprise values fell for the guideline com-
panies excluding EOG, and oil and natural gas production in the region decreased until the fourth quarter of 2017.
The price of public EP companies, which generally tracks oil prices relatively closely, diverged from the upward trend
seen in oil prices as the market moved into backwardation. Oil future prices tell investors that the increase in oil prices is
short lived, which means that investors are not willing to pay more for oil companies stock in the short run.
In the chart below, we analyze the price per flowing barrel over the last five years. Production in the Eagle Ford slowed
as oil production fell until September 2017, and natural gas production is still declining. Multiples are lower than those
seen in the Permian Basin but higher than those observed in the Marcellus and Utica which has been affected by low
natural gas prices and a lack of transportation.
$0
$30,000
$60,000
$90,000
$120,000
$150,000
$180,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018
Bakken MU Permian Eagle Ford
Source: Bloomberg
Price per Flowing Barrel
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 8
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
Transaction activity in the Eagle Ford Shale has been fairly steady over the past 12 months, with the majority of trans-
actions in the $100-300 million range. The seller’s rationale has most often been about balance sheet management
and re-allocation to other plays, usually the Permian Basin. However, the Eagle Ford area has some quality eco-
nomics of its own, which has been attractive to buyers. Many argue it has the best shale production economics in the
U.S. next to the Permian Basin. These differing strategy based swaps have been at the heart of transaction flow. This
has also led to consideration that Devon may sell its Eagle Ford division in search of returns elsewhere. The table
below provides transaction details including some comparative valuation metrics.
Eagle Ford
Market Valuations 
Transaction Activity
Transactions in the Eagle Ford
Announced
Date Buyer Seller
Deal Value
($MM) $ / Acre $ / Mcfe / d $ / Boepd
3/20/18 TPG Pace Energy Holding Corp Enervest Ltd. $2,660 $7,389 $66,500 na
3/16/18 Sundance Energy Australia Limited Reliance Industries Limited, Pioneer Natural Resources Co. 222 10,114 123,056 na
2/13/18 WildHorse Resource Development Not Disclosed 19 1,106 327,119 na
1/2/18 Penn Virginia Corp Hunt Oil Company 86 8,866 45,989 22.6
12/20/17 Venado Oil  Gas LLC Cabot Oil  Gas Corp 765 10,268 48,863 na
12/12/17 EP Energy Corp Carrizo Oil  Gas Inc. 246 10,041 72,353 na
8/18/17 Vitruvian Exploration IV, LLC Sanchez Energy Corp 105 1,500 na na
7/31/17 Penn Virginia Corp Devon Energy Corp 205 10,459 68,333 na
6/16/17 Lonestar Resources Ltd. Sanchez Energy Corp 50 2,381 28,571 18.5
5/30/17 Lonestar Resources Ltd. Not Disclosed 117 na 56,823 3.7
Median $161 $8,866 $66,500 $19
Average $447 $6,903 $93,067 $15
Source: Shale Experts
* Does not include every transaction in the Eagle Ford Shale for the last twelve months ended 3/31/2018
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 9
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
Eagle Ford
Magnolia – Blank Check
Company Forms a New
South Texas Producer
The largest transaction in the past year was the recent announcement of a special purpose acquisition entity
(“SPAC”) coming to an agreement with certain Enervest controlled funds. The result of the merger is the creation
of a pure play Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk company with 360,000 net acres in South Texas. The majority of that
acreage is in what is known as the Giddings field, which is an oil play in the Austin Chalk (mostly held by production).
Breakevens are claimed to be in the low $30s per barrel with one year (or less) paybacks in Karnes and Giddings
field. Magnolia is led by a former Occidental Petroleum executive, Steve Chazen, who has both short- and long-term
optimism for the opportunity. Estimated EBITDA for 2018 is projected at $513 million including approximately
$240 million of cash flow after capital expenditures.
Denver-based Sundance Energy Australia Ltd. struck a deal with Pioneer Natural Resource Co. to buy almost 22,000
acres and 1,800 boe/d of production in the Eagle Ford Shale, bolting on to an existing leasehold in South Texas.
The pure-play Eagle Ford player agreed to pay $221.5 million for the leasehold, which runs through McMullen,
Atascosa, LaSalle and Live Oak counties. The transaction would give Sundance 56,600 total acres in the play, with
an inventory of 716 gross undrilled locations.
Meanwhile, Pioneer announced in February that going forward it would put most of its resources into the Permian and
planned to sell nearly all “non-Permian” projects, including in the Eagle Ford, Raton Basin and West Texas Panhandle.
While margins are higher in the Permian, it is important to note that purchasing acreage in the Permian is much more
expensive than the Eagle Ford, so drilling most likely needs to be based on existing acreage positions.
Overall, the Eagle Ford’s economics are improving (Venado, a KKR-backed Austin firm, made a $765 million pur-
chase from Cabot that was based on this optimism). About 61,500 net acres of the Venado position, which is located
primarily in Frio and Atascosa counties in South Texas, is operated and about 9,400 net acres are nonoperated. Pro-
duction from the properties during third-quarter 2017 was 15,656 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Highest and
Best Economics
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 10
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
as of 3/31/2018
Company Name Ticker
3/31/2018
Enterprise Value
YOY % Change
in EV
EBITDAX
Margin
EV/
EBITDAX
Daily
Production
(mboe/d)
Price per Flowing
Barrel*
Global Integrated
Exxon Mobil Corp XOM $362,128 -6.03% 14.7% 10.5x 4,103 $88,252
Statoil ASA STO $93,189 37.55% 38.3% 4.0x 2,162 $43,113
Royal Dutch Shell PLC RDS/A $335,452 na 14.3% 7.7x na na
Chevron Corp CVX $252,981 4.23% 17.8% 11.1x 2,841 $89,036
Occidental Petroleum Corp OXY $57,894 1.98% 42.4% 10.9x 600 $96,461
BP PLC BP $173,831 13.92% 10.6% 6.8x 3,743 $46,442
Group Median 4.23% 16.2% 9.1x 2,841 $88,252
Global EP
Marathon Oil Corp MRO $18,638 2.63% 53.7% 7.8x 393 $47,417
Hess Corp HES $19,956 -5.06% -37.8% -9.5x 235 $85,084
ConocoPhillips COP $81,340 -4.25% 18.9% 14.8x 1,222 $66,582
Anadarko Petroleum Corp APC $45,361 -4.22% 51.8% 7.3x 633 $71,714
Noble Energy Inc NBL $21,808 1.22% 6.3% 85.2x 362 $60,259
Apache Corp APA $22,869 -18.15% 71.5% 5.5x 437 $52,336
Murphy Oil Corp MUR $6,433 -5.99% 67.7% 4.6x 167 $38,427
Group Median -4.25% 51.8% 7.3x 393 $60,259
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
* Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/ daily production ($/boe/d)
** Companies included in the Guideline Group were selected from a broader guideline group, detailed here. The selected companies’ market caps exceed $1 billion and revenues exceed $500 million.
Mercer Capital tracks the performance of Exploration and Production companies across different mineral reserves in order to understand how the current pricing envi-
ronment affects operators in each region. We created an index of seven groups to better understand performance trends across reserves and across the industry. The
current pricing multiples of each company in the index is summarized below.
Appendix A
Selected Public Company Information
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 11
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
as of 3/31/2018
Company Name Ticker
3/31/2018
Enterprise Value
YOY % Change
in EV
EBITDAX
Margin
EV/
EBITDAX
Daily
Production
(mboe/d)
Price per Flowing
Barrel*
North American EP
Ultra Petroleum Corp UPL $3,116 na 63.3% 5.5x 136 $22,967
Encana Corp ECA $14,238 -5.79% 43.3% 7.5x 346 $41,182
Devon Energy Corp DVN $29,308 -15.31% 28.1% 7.6x 546 $53,664
Enerplus Corp ERF $3,016 21.01% 61.4% 6.9x 86 $35,235
QEP Resources Inc QEP $4,520 -4.42% 53.7% 5.2x 126 $35,731
WPX Energy Inc WPX $8,530 6.81% 60.3% 10.4x 111 $77,146
EQT Corp EQT $24,844 52.67% 69.2% 12.1x 663 $37,492
Chesapeake Energy Corp CHK $14,509 -12.57% 19.5% 8.2x 556 $26,087
Newfield Exploration Co NFX $6,986 -24.74% 56.5% 6.9x 174 $40,108
Group Median -5.11% 56.5% 7.5x 174 $37,492
Bakken
Continental Resources Inc/OK CLR $28,429 20.96% 69.7% 13.3x 289 $98,536
Whiting Petroleum Corp WLL $5,968 -9.44% 29.9% 13.4x 126 $47,244
Oasis Petroleum Inc OAS $4,654 -18.04% 54.7% 6.9x 76 $61,012
Crescent Point Energy Corp CPG $6,943 -22.62% 61.4% 5.0x 179 $38,783
Group Median -13.74% 58.0% 10.1x 153 $54,128
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
* Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/ daily production ($/boe/d)
** Companies included in the Guideline Group were selected from a broader guideline group, detailed here. The selected companies’ market caps exceed $1 billion and revenues exceed $500 million.
Appendix A
Selected Public Company Information
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 12
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
as of 3/31/2018
Company Name Ticker
3/31/2018
Enterprise Value
YOY % Change
in EV
EBITDAX
Margin
EV/
EBITDAX
Daily
Production
(mboe/d)
Price per Flowing
Barrel*
Marcellus  Utica
Range Resources Corp RRC $7,722 -29.42% 42.3% 7.6x 365 $21,178
Cabot Oil  Gas Corp COG $12,100 -0.11% 25.0% 27.6x 309 $39,108
Antero Resources Corp AR $11,782 -6.32% 48.7% 7.5x 394 $29,896
Gulfport Energy Corp GPOR $3,706 -13.00% 80.7% 4.1x 209 $17,717
Southwestern Energy Co SWN $7,742 -14.37% 38.0% 6.4x 412 $18,776
Group Median -13.00% 42.3% 7.5x 365 $21,178
Permian Basin
Concho Resources Inc CXO $25,216 20.16% 93.2% 10.2x 218 $115,911
Parsley Energy Inc PE $10,662 25.44% 67.5% 16.7x 86 $124,243
Diamondback Energy Inc FANG $14,112 31.09% 77.4% 15.0x 100 $140,891
RSP Permian Inc RSPP $8,946 17.38% 65.1% 16.9x 67 $133,917
Halcon Resources Corp HK $757 -52.49% 218.2% 0.9x 11 $69,628
Laredo Petroleum Inc LPI $2,780 -42.81% 50.6% 6.6x 62 $44,488
Pioneer Natural Resources Co PXD $29,877 -7.06% 32.1% 15.5x 307 $97,380
Cimarex Energy Co XEC $10,010 -18.45% 63.2% 8.3x 202 $49,485
Energen Corp EGN $6,905 20.16% 64.7% 11.0x 92 $75,445
Group Median 17.38% 65.1% 11.0x 92 $97,380
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
* Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/ daily production ($/boe/d)
** Companies included in the Guideline Group were selected from a broader guideline group, detailed here. The selected companies’ market caps exceed $1 billion and revenues exceed $500 million.
Appendix A
Selected Public Company Information
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 13
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
as of 3/31/2018
Company Name Ticker
3/31/2018
Enterprise Value
YOY % Change
in EV
EBITDAX
Margin
EV/
EBITDAX
Daily
Production
(mboe/d)
Price per Flowing
Barrel*
Eagle Ford
Carrizo Oil  Gas Inc CRZO $3,173 -1.66% 67.4% 6.2x 50 $63,839
SM Energy Co SM $4,609 -6.18% 35.3% 10.4x 110 $41,776
EOG Resources Inc EOG $66,466 7.65% 42.9% 13.7x 658 $101,014
Group Median -1.66% 42.9% 10.4x 110 $63,839
Overall Median -4.42% 0.5x 7.7x 262 $50,911
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
* Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/ daily production ($/boe/d)
** Companies included in the Guideline Group were selected from a broader guideline group, detailed here. The selected companies’ market caps exceed $1 billion and revenues exceed $500 million.
Appendix A
Selected Public Company Information
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 14
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
Appendix B
Rig Count
Rig Count by Region
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Other
Source: Baker Hughes
Baker Hughes collects and publishes information regarding active drilling rigs in the United States and internationally.
The number of active rigs is a key indicator of demand for oilfield services  equipment. Factors influencing rig counts
include energy prices, investment climate, technological changes, regulatory activity, weather, and seasonality.
The number of active rigs in the United States as of March 31, 2018, stood at 993, a 20% increase from March 2017.
The increase reflects a pickup in drilling activity from the increase of oil prices over $50/bbl, enabling companies to
increase drilling activities. Activity increased more slowly in the Eagle Ford than the Permian Basin with the number
of active rigs increasing by 5% to 84 rigs in March 2018. It is important to remember that rig counts are only half the
picture. Although rig counts are still down compared to pre-2014, production per rig has increased, which means total
production as compared to pre-2014 is up.
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 15
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
U.S. Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural Gas
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Oil GasSource: Baker Hughes
Appendix B
Rig Count
U.S. Rig Count by Trajectory
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Directional Horizontal Vertical
Source: Baker Hughes
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 16
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
Eagle Ford Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural Gas
Bakken Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural Gas
Permian Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural Gas
Marcellus  Utica Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural Gas
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oil Gas
Source: Baker Hughes
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oil Gas
Source: Baker Hughes
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Oil Gas
Source: Baker Hughes
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Oil Gas
Source: Baker Hughes
Appendix B
Rig Count // Oil vs. Natural Gas
© 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation  Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 17
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy
Eagle Ford Rig Count by Trajectory
Bakken Rig Count by Trajectory
Permian Rig Count by Trajectory
Marcellus  Utica Rig Count by Trajectory
0
50
100
150
200
250
Directional Horizontal Vertical
Source: Baker Hughes
0
50
100
150
200
250
Directional Horizontal Vertical
Source: Baker Hughes
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Directional Horizontal Vertical
Source: Baker Hughes
0
50
100
150
Directional Horizontal Vertical
Source: Baker Hughes
Appendix B
Rig Count // Trajectory
BUSINESS VALUATION 
FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES
Memphis
5100 Poplar Avenue, Suite 2600
Memphis, Tennessee 38137
901.685.2120
Dallas
12201 Merit Drive, Suite 480
Dallas, Texas 75251
214.468.8400
Nashville
102 Woodmont Blvd., Suite 231
Nashville, Tennessee 37205
615.345.0350
www.mercercapital.com

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Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q1 2018 | Segment: Exploration and Production

  • 1. BUSINESS VALUATION & FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES VALUE FOCUS Exploration & Production First Quarter 2018 // Region Focus: Eagle Ford Q1: Eagle Ford Q2: Permian Basin Q3: Bakken Shale Q4: Marcellus and Utica Executive Summary 2018 www.mercercapital.com The oil and gas market has been steadily improving. Both production and prices have increased, and oil and gas exploration and production companies are becoming more efficient allowing them to cut costs. This quarter we take a look at the Eagle Ford Shale. While the Permian has been receiving the most attention, given its low-cost economics and large well potential, the Eagle Ford (particularly its oil window) has increased well production while dropping its costs. In this newsletter, we consider why companies are moving out of the Eagle Ford region and are reducing the number of wells drilled despite the region’s untapped potential.
  • 2. Contact Us BUSINESS VALUATION & FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES Industry Segments Mercer Capital serves the following industry segments: • Exploration & Production • Oil Field Services • Midstream Operations • Alternative Energy Oil and Gas Industry Services Mercer Capital provides business valuation and financial advisory services to companies in the energy industry. Services Provided • Valuation of energy companies • Transaction advisory for acquisitions and divestitures • Valuations for purchase accounting and impairment testing • Fairness and solvency opinions • Litigation support for economic damages and valuation and shareholder disputes Bryce Erickson, ASA, MRICS 214.468.8400 ericksonb@mercercapital.com Grant M. Farrell, ASA, CPA, ABV, CFF 214.468.8400 farrellg@mercercapital.com Don Erickson, ASA 214.468.8400 ericksond@mercercapital.com Taryn E. Burgess 901.322.9757 burgesst@mercercapital.com Learn More about Mercer Capital & our Oil and Gas Services at mercercapital.com Copyright © 2018 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged. Reporters requesting additional information or editorial comment should contact Barbara Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Industry Focus is published quarterly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an informa- tion service to our clients and friends. Those interested in specific guidance for legal or accounting matters should seek competent professional advice. Inquiries to discuss specific valuation matters are welcomed. To add your name to our mailing list to receive this complimentary publication, visit our web site at www.mercercapital.com. In This Issue E&P Industry Oil and Gas Commodity Prices 1 Too Good to Be True? 2 Easing Concerns 2 Overview 3 Region Focus: Eagle Ford Overview 4 Breakeven Prices 4 Production 5 2018 Plans 6 Valuation Implications 7 Market Valuations Transaction Activity 8 Magnolia – Blank Check Company Forms a New South Texas Producer 9 Highest and Best Economics 9 Selected Public Company Information 10 Rig Count 14 Mercer Capital 18
  • 3. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 1 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy The oil and gas market continued to show improvement in the first quarter of 2018. Positive momentum continued in U.S. production growth, and prices increased from an average of $55 in Q4 2017 to an average of $63 in Q1 2018. At the beginning of the quarter, Mercer Capital’s Grant Farrell said, “a repeat of 2017 would be a welcomed event,” and it appears we are on track. Oil prices are ticking up, domestic production has increased to a 50-year high, and the U.S. is exporting more crude oil than ever before. $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 DollarperMcf DollarsperBarrel WTI Brent Henry Hub Source: Bloomberg EP Industry Oil and Gas Commodity Prices Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices
  • 4. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 2 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy EP Industry Too Good to Be True? If you are like us, you can’t ignore the wary feeling in your gut that makes you ask, “Is it too good to be true?” According to Reuters, global inventories could increase due to the rapid increase in production in the U.S. which “could well outweigh any pick-up in demand.” Rig counts in 2018 were expected to increase to 945 active rigs. However, Baker Hughes reports that we have already met this target and currently have 993 active rigs compared to 824 a year ago. Have we already forgotten the lesson we learned in 2014 – too much supply, too fast leads to a decline in prices? Additionally, what will happen to demand as transportation becomes more fuel efficient and we shift further away from oil in favor of renewable energy resources? Thankfully, we are not the only one asking these questions. A survey of oil and gas professionals in the February 2018 Issue of the Oil and Gas Journal showed that 63% of oil and gas senior professionals are optimistic about 2018. However, this optimism does not stem from a forecasted favorable price environment. Rather, their confidence is supported by the knowledge that they can now operate profitably in a $55 per barrel price environment. Oil and gas exploration companies today are more cost efficient than ever. The collapse in prices in mid-2014 gave companies two options: adapt to the new price environment or go away. Today we are left with a more cost-aware sector that has used technology to reduce risks and cut costs. Even though the market moved into backwardation, oil and gas professionals are still optimistic about the future. Further, domestic EP companies today have the ability to quickly adjust their operations in response to price changes. Jude Clemente, a recent contributor for Forbes recently wrote, “The U.S. has now become the world’s swing oil producer and is the main factor that will limit how high prices can go.” BP Chief Economist Spencer Dale recently responded to similar questions asked across the energy industry: “will oil and gas lose dominance to renewable fuels in the future?” BP argues that crude oil demand will continue to increase into the foreseeable future but will begin to reach a plateau in the next twenty years. While renewable energy is the fastest growing energy source, developing nations across the world will drive energy demand in the future. The mix of crude oil and renewable energy will shift, and crude oil will likely meet 85% of oil demand in 2040 instead of 94% of demand today. This does not, however, mean demand for crude oil will disappear. Easing Concerns
  • 5. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 3 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy EP Industry Overview The forecast for the oil and gas industry in 2018 was positive, and we seem to be meeting or even exceeding investor expectations. The U.S. is expected to give up its title of the largest crude oil importer, and exports are expected to continue growing as new pipelines and export terminals allow for increased capacity. The positive momentum in the industry is being reflected in private company valuations both as a result of improved earnings forecasts and reductions in risk. Growth in production and increases in price are increasing revenue, and more of the top line is flowing down to net income as companies have cut costs. Earnings improvement is being magnified by the recent tax cuts, which have significantly increased net income. Further, the risk profiles of EP com- panies have improved as companies are better equipped to handle price volatility and EP companies are generally taking on projects with shorter payback periods.
  • 6. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 4 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy Eagle Ford Overview Breakeven Prices The economics of oil and gas production varies by region. Mercer Capital focuses on trends in the Eagle Ford, Permian, Bakken, and Marcellus and Utica plays. The cost of producing oil and gas depends on the geological makeup of the reserve, depth of reserve, and cost to transport the raw crude to market. We can observe different costs in different regions depending on these factors. This quarter we take a closer look at the Eagle Ford Shale. The economics of the Eagle Ford Shale has been steadily improving for the past year. While the Permian has been receiving the most attention, given its low-cost economics and large well potential, the Eagle Ford (particularly its oil window) has increased well production while dropping its costs. However, based on recent announcements, many companies are reducing the number of wells drilled in 2018 as compared to 2017. As recently as a year ago, several companies and outlets reported breakeven oil price estimates in the low- to mid-$40s. Recently, several operators in the Eagle Ford are estimating breakeven as low as $28 and many around $35. This significant drop points to anticipated efficiencies in drilling and completion costs. While positive, the trend is generally moving away from the Eagle Ford relative to other plays. IHS Markit, reported that a key reason for the decline in activity in the Eagle Ford is due to the rising interest in the Permian Basin and STACK/SCOOP plays, which have attracted the interest of key Eagle Ford players, including Pioneer Resources, Devon Energy, and Marathon Oil. They said, “Only 1,415 new wells were brought online in 2016 compared to 2,717 in 2015 and 4,040 in 2014.”
  • 7. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 5 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy Eagle Ford Production Even though operators are moving away from the region, production started increasing in September 2017 for the first time since the fall in oil prices in mid-2014. Production in the Eagle Ford increased year-over-year from 1.25 mmboe/d in March 2017 to 1.31 mmboe/d in March 2018. Additionally, operators are becoming more efficient and more oil is being produced per rig than before. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 ThousandBarrelsperDay Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Bakken Source: EIA Daily Production of Natural Gas
  • 8. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 6 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy Eagle Ford 2018 Plans Several companies (Sanchez, Chesapeake, and Carrizo) are decreasing their estimates for new wells compared to last year but are increasing their capex budgets. Overall, EOG and Sanchez have increased their rig presence, but those figures fluctuate even week-to-week. EOG is leading the way in its activity from well count to acreage. In terms of new activity planned in 2018, it is the most aggressive of the four companies we follow (see table below). It’s also notable that EOG continues to test its position in the Austin Chalk formation – completing four wells in Q4 2017. Bill Thomas, EOG’s chairman and CEO, said, “EOG emerged from the industry downturn in 2017 with unprecedented levels of efficiency and productivity, driving oil production volumes to record levels with capital expenditures approxi- mately one half the prior peak.” Carrizo’s strategy revolves around “multipads” wherever possible in the Eagle Ford. In 2018, Carrizo plans to complete a 16-well multipad utilizing three completion crews. In addition, Carrizo sees more than 700 remaining PUDs in the core of its Eagle Ford position at a 330-500 foot spacing profile (depending on the geology of the project area). Chesapeake, meanwhile, continues to manage its balance sheet with asset sales and tempered activity which makes its activity profile a little harder to discern. Trends in the Eagle Ford Trend Metrics EOG Sanchez Chesapeake Carrizo 2018 Total Capex Budget (Includes Eagle Ford) $5.4-5.8 Billion $1.27 Billion $2.0-2.4 Billion $750-800 Million Change from 2017 +44% +45% -12% +27% Eagle Ford 2018 Well Program Estimate (Net) 260 Wells 87 Wells 140 Wells 73 Wells Change from 2017 Wells Completed +19.8% -38.3% -15.7% -11.0% Eagle Ford Rigs as of 3/23/18 12 7 4 1 Change from 2017 +6 +3 -1 -1 Breakeven Prices in Eagle Ford per barrel $ NA $35 $30-40 $32 Net Acreage in Eagle Ford (Most Recent Estimate) 590,000 360,000 245,000 103,000 Source: Company Reports ShaleExperts.com
  • 9. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 7 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy Eagle Ford Valuation Implications Stock price performance over the last quarter seemed subpar for companies operating in the Eagle Ford, excluding EOG. Over the past few years, valuation multiples fluctuated the region as enterprise values fell for the guideline com- panies excluding EOG, and oil and natural gas production in the region decreased until the fourth quarter of 2017. The price of public EP companies, which generally tracks oil prices relatively closely, diverged from the upward trend seen in oil prices as the market moved into backwardation. Oil future prices tell investors that the increase in oil prices is short lived, which means that investors are not willing to pay more for oil companies stock in the short run. In the chart below, we analyze the price per flowing barrel over the last five years. Production in the Eagle Ford slowed as oil production fell until September 2017, and natural gas production is still declining. Multiples are lower than those seen in the Permian Basin but higher than those observed in the Marcellus and Utica which has been affected by low natural gas prices and a lack of transportation. $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 $120,000 $150,000 $180,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018 Bakken MU Permian Eagle Ford Source: Bloomberg Price per Flowing Barrel
  • 10. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 8 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy Transaction activity in the Eagle Ford Shale has been fairly steady over the past 12 months, with the majority of trans- actions in the $100-300 million range. The seller’s rationale has most often been about balance sheet management and re-allocation to other plays, usually the Permian Basin. However, the Eagle Ford area has some quality eco- nomics of its own, which has been attractive to buyers. Many argue it has the best shale production economics in the U.S. next to the Permian Basin. These differing strategy based swaps have been at the heart of transaction flow. This has also led to consideration that Devon may sell its Eagle Ford division in search of returns elsewhere. The table below provides transaction details including some comparative valuation metrics. Eagle Ford Market Valuations Transaction Activity Transactions in the Eagle Ford Announced Date Buyer Seller Deal Value ($MM) $ / Acre $ / Mcfe / d $ / Boepd 3/20/18 TPG Pace Energy Holding Corp Enervest Ltd. $2,660 $7,389 $66,500 na 3/16/18 Sundance Energy Australia Limited Reliance Industries Limited, Pioneer Natural Resources Co. 222 10,114 123,056 na 2/13/18 WildHorse Resource Development Not Disclosed 19 1,106 327,119 na 1/2/18 Penn Virginia Corp Hunt Oil Company 86 8,866 45,989 22.6 12/20/17 Venado Oil Gas LLC Cabot Oil Gas Corp 765 10,268 48,863 na 12/12/17 EP Energy Corp Carrizo Oil Gas Inc. 246 10,041 72,353 na 8/18/17 Vitruvian Exploration IV, LLC Sanchez Energy Corp 105 1,500 na na 7/31/17 Penn Virginia Corp Devon Energy Corp 205 10,459 68,333 na 6/16/17 Lonestar Resources Ltd. Sanchez Energy Corp 50 2,381 28,571 18.5 5/30/17 Lonestar Resources Ltd. Not Disclosed 117 na 56,823 3.7 Median $161 $8,866 $66,500 $19 Average $447 $6,903 $93,067 $15 Source: Shale Experts * Does not include every transaction in the Eagle Ford Shale for the last twelve months ended 3/31/2018
  • 11. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 9 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy Eagle Ford Magnolia – Blank Check Company Forms a New South Texas Producer The largest transaction in the past year was the recent announcement of a special purpose acquisition entity (“SPAC”) coming to an agreement with certain Enervest controlled funds. The result of the merger is the creation of a pure play Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk company with 360,000 net acres in South Texas. The majority of that acreage is in what is known as the Giddings field, which is an oil play in the Austin Chalk (mostly held by production). Breakevens are claimed to be in the low $30s per barrel with one year (or less) paybacks in Karnes and Giddings field. Magnolia is led by a former Occidental Petroleum executive, Steve Chazen, who has both short- and long-term optimism for the opportunity. Estimated EBITDA for 2018 is projected at $513 million including approximately $240 million of cash flow after capital expenditures. Denver-based Sundance Energy Australia Ltd. struck a deal with Pioneer Natural Resource Co. to buy almost 22,000 acres and 1,800 boe/d of production in the Eagle Ford Shale, bolting on to an existing leasehold in South Texas. The pure-play Eagle Ford player agreed to pay $221.5 million for the leasehold, which runs through McMullen, Atascosa, LaSalle and Live Oak counties. The transaction would give Sundance 56,600 total acres in the play, with an inventory of 716 gross undrilled locations. Meanwhile, Pioneer announced in February that going forward it would put most of its resources into the Permian and planned to sell nearly all “non-Permian” projects, including in the Eagle Ford, Raton Basin and West Texas Panhandle. While margins are higher in the Permian, it is important to note that purchasing acreage in the Permian is much more expensive than the Eagle Ford, so drilling most likely needs to be based on existing acreage positions. Overall, the Eagle Ford’s economics are improving (Venado, a KKR-backed Austin firm, made a $765 million pur- chase from Cabot that was based on this optimism). About 61,500 net acres of the Venado position, which is located primarily in Frio and Atascosa counties in South Texas, is operated and about 9,400 net acres are nonoperated. Pro- duction from the properties during third-quarter 2017 was 15,656 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Highest and Best Economics
  • 12. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 10 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy as of 3/31/2018 Company Name Ticker 3/31/2018 Enterprise Value YOY % Change in EV EBITDAX Margin EV/ EBITDAX Daily Production (mboe/d) Price per Flowing Barrel* Global Integrated Exxon Mobil Corp XOM $362,128 -6.03% 14.7% 10.5x 4,103 $88,252 Statoil ASA STO $93,189 37.55% 38.3% 4.0x 2,162 $43,113 Royal Dutch Shell PLC RDS/A $335,452 na 14.3% 7.7x na na Chevron Corp CVX $252,981 4.23% 17.8% 11.1x 2,841 $89,036 Occidental Petroleum Corp OXY $57,894 1.98% 42.4% 10.9x 600 $96,461 BP PLC BP $173,831 13.92% 10.6% 6.8x 3,743 $46,442 Group Median 4.23% 16.2% 9.1x 2,841 $88,252 Global EP Marathon Oil Corp MRO $18,638 2.63% 53.7% 7.8x 393 $47,417 Hess Corp HES $19,956 -5.06% -37.8% -9.5x 235 $85,084 ConocoPhillips COP $81,340 -4.25% 18.9% 14.8x 1,222 $66,582 Anadarko Petroleum Corp APC $45,361 -4.22% 51.8% 7.3x 633 $71,714 Noble Energy Inc NBL $21,808 1.22% 6.3% 85.2x 362 $60,259 Apache Corp APA $22,869 -18.15% 71.5% 5.5x 437 $52,336 Murphy Oil Corp MUR $6,433 -5.99% 67.7% 4.6x 167 $38,427 Group Median -4.25% 51.8% 7.3x 393 $60,259 Source: Bloomberg L.P. * Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/ daily production ($/boe/d) ** Companies included in the Guideline Group were selected from a broader guideline group, detailed here. The selected companies’ market caps exceed $1 billion and revenues exceed $500 million. Mercer Capital tracks the performance of Exploration and Production companies across different mineral reserves in order to understand how the current pricing envi- ronment affects operators in each region. We created an index of seven groups to better understand performance trends across reserves and across the industry. The current pricing multiples of each company in the index is summarized below. Appendix A Selected Public Company Information
  • 13. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 11 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy as of 3/31/2018 Company Name Ticker 3/31/2018 Enterprise Value YOY % Change in EV EBITDAX Margin EV/ EBITDAX Daily Production (mboe/d) Price per Flowing Barrel* North American EP Ultra Petroleum Corp UPL $3,116 na 63.3% 5.5x 136 $22,967 Encana Corp ECA $14,238 -5.79% 43.3% 7.5x 346 $41,182 Devon Energy Corp DVN $29,308 -15.31% 28.1% 7.6x 546 $53,664 Enerplus Corp ERF $3,016 21.01% 61.4% 6.9x 86 $35,235 QEP Resources Inc QEP $4,520 -4.42% 53.7% 5.2x 126 $35,731 WPX Energy Inc WPX $8,530 6.81% 60.3% 10.4x 111 $77,146 EQT Corp EQT $24,844 52.67% 69.2% 12.1x 663 $37,492 Chesapeake Energy Corp CHK $14,509 -12.57% 19.5% 8.2x 556 $26,087 Newfield Exploration Co NFX $6,986 -24.74% 56.5% 6.9x 174 $40,108 Group Median -5.11% 56.5% 7.5x 174 $37,492 Bakken Continental Resources Inc/OK CLR $28,429 20.96% 69.7% 13.3x 289 $98,536 Whiting Petroleum Corp WLL $5,968 -9.44% 29.9% 13.4x 126 $47,244 Oasis Petroleum Inc OAS $4,654 -18.04% 54.7% 6.9x 76 $61,012 Crescent Point Energy Corp CPG $6,943 -22.62% 61.4% 5.0x 179 $38,783 Group Median -13.74% 58.0% 10.1x 153 $54,128 Source: Bloomberg L.P. * Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/ daily production ($/boe/d) ** Companies included in the Guideline Group were selected from a broader guideline group, detailed here. The selected companies’ market caps exceed $1 billion and revenues exceed $500 million. Appendix A Selected Public Company Information
  • 14. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 12 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy as of 3/31/2018 Company Name Ticker 3/31/2018 Enterprise Value YOY % Change in EV EBITDAX Margin EV/ EBITDAX Daily Production (mboe/d) Price per Flowing Barrel* Marcellus Utica Range Resources Corp RRC $7,722 -29.42% 42.3% 7.6x 365 $21,178 Cabot Oil Gas Corp COG $12,100 -0.11% 25.0% 27.6x 309 $39,108 Antero Resources Corp AR $11,782 -6.32% 48.7% 7.5x 394 $29,896 Gulfport Energy Corp GPOR $3,706 -13.00% 80.7% 4.1x 209 $17,717 Southwestern Energy Co SWN $7,742 -14.37% 38.0% 6.4x 412 $18,776 Group Median -13.00% 42.3% 7.5x 365 $21,178 Permian Basin Concho Resources Inc CXO $25,216 20.16% 93.2% 10.2x 218 $115,911 Parsley Energy Inc PE $10,662 25.44% 67.5% 16.7x 86 $124,243 Diamondback Energy Inc FANG $14,112 31.09% 77.4% 15.0x 100 $140,891 RSP Permian Inc RSPP $8,946 17.38% 65.1% 16.9x 67 $133,917 Halcon Resources Corp HK $757 -52.49% 218.2% 0.9x 11 $69,628 Laredo Petroleum Inc LPI $2,780 -42.81% 50.6% 6.6x 62 $44,488 Pioneer Natural Resources Co PXD $29,877 -7.06% 32.1% 15.5x 307 $97,380 Cimarex Energy Co XEC $10,010 -18.45% 63.2% 8.3x 202 $49,485 Energen Corp EGN $6,905 20.16% 64.7% 11.0x 92 $75,445 Group Median 17.38% 65.1% 11.0x 92 $97,380 Source: Bloomberg L.P. * Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/ daily production ($/boe/d) ** Companies included in the Guideline Group were selected from a broader guideline group, detailed here. The selected companies’ market caps exceed $1 billion and revenues exceed $500 million. Appendix A Selected Public Company Information
  • 15. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 13 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy as of 3/31/2018 Company Name Ticker 3/31/2018 Enterprise Value YOY % Change in EV EBITDAX Margin EV/ EBITDAX Daily Production (mboe/d) Price per Flowing Barrel* Eagle Ford Carrizo Oil Gas Inc CRZO $3,173 -1.66% 67.4% 6.2x 50 $63,839 SM Energy Co SM $4,609 -6.18% 35.3% 10.4x 110 $41,776 EOG Resources Inc EOG $66,466 7.65% 42.9% 13.7x 658 $101,014 Group Median -1.66% 42.9% 10.4x 110 $63,839 Overall Median -4.42% 0.5x 7.7x 262 $50,911 Source: Bloomberg L.P. * Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/ daily production ($/boe/d) ** Companies included in the Guideline Group were selected from a broader guideline group, detailed here. The selected companies’ market caps exceed $1 billion and revenues exceed $500 million. Appendix A Selected Public Company Information
  • 16. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 14 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy Appendix B Rig Count Rig Count by Region 0 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Other Source: Baker Hughes Baker Hughes collects and publishes information regarding active drilling rigs in the United States and internationally. The number of active rigs is a key indicator of demand for oilfield services equipment. Factors influencing rig counts include energy prices, investment climate, technological changes, regulatory activity, weather, and seasonality. The number of active rigs in the United States as of March 31, 2018, stood at 993, a 20% increase from March 2017. The increase reflects a pickup in drilling activity from the increase of oil prices over $50/bbl, enabling companies to increase drilling activities. Activity increased more slowly in the Eagle Ford than the Permian Basin with the number of active rigs increasing by 5% to 84 rigs in March 2018. It is important to remember that rig counts are only half the picture. Although rig counts are still down compared to pre-2014, production per rig has increased, which means total production as compared to pre-2014 is up.
  • 17. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 15 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy U.S. Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural Gas 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Oil GasSource: Baker Hughes Appendix B Rig Count U.S. Rig Count by Trajectory 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Directional Horizontal Vertical Source: Baker Hughes
  • 18. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 16 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy Eagle Ford Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural Gas Bakken Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural Gas Permian Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural Gas Marcellus Utica Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural Gas 0 50 100 150 200 250 Oil Gas Source: Baker Hughes 0 50 100 150 200 250 Oil Gas Source: Baker Hughes 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Oil Gas Source: Baker Hughes 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Oil Gas Source: Baker Hughes Appendix B Rig Count // Oil vs. Natural Gas
  • 19. © 2018 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 17 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: EP Industry // First Quarter 2018 @MercerEnergy Eagle Ford Rig Count by Trajectory Bakken Rig Count by Trajectory Permian Rig Count by Trajectory Marcellus Utica Rig Count by Trajectory 0 50 100 150 200 250 Directional Horizontal Vertical Source: Baker Hughes 0 50 100 150 200 250 Directional Horizontal Vertical Source: Baker Hughes 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Directional Horizontal Vertical Source: Baker Hughes 0 50 100 150 Directional Horizontal Vertical Source: Baker Hughes Appendix B Rig Count // Trajectory
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