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BUSINESS VALUATION &
FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES
VALUE FOCUS
Exploration & Production
First Quarter 2021 // Region Focus: Eagle Ford
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The first quarter of 2021 saw generally increasing commodity prices, a welcome
change from the volatile price environment seen during 2020. WTI increased
from approximately $48/bbl to $59/bbl during the first quarter. Natural gas was
volatile but started and ended the quarter at approximately $2.60/mmbtu. With
a more constructive commodity price backdrop, some see a recovery in sight,
but ongoing uncertainty looms as the Biden Administration begins implementing
its oil & gas policies. In this newsletter, we examine the macroeconomic factors
that have affected the industry in the first quarter of 2021 and peek behind the
curtain on what the remainder of 2021 might hold.
BUSINESS VALUATION &
FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES
Industry Segments
Mercer Capital serves the following industry segments:
• Exploration & Production
• Oilfield Services
• Midstream
• Refining & Marketing
Oil and Gas Industry Services
Mercer Capital provides business valuation and financial advisory
services to companies throughout the U.S. in the oil & gas industry.
Services Provided
• Valuation of oil & gas companies
• Transaction advisory for acquisitions and
divestitures
• Valuations for purchase accounting and
impairment testing
• Fairness and solvency opinions
• Litigation support for economic damages and
valuation and shareholder disputes
Learn More about Mercer Capital &
our Oil and Gas Services at
mer.cr/oilgas
Copyright © 2021 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged. Reporters requesting additional
information or editorial comment should contact Barbara Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Industry Focus is published quarterly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an information service to our clients and friends. Those interested
in specific guidance for legal or accounting matters should seek competent professional advice. Inquiries to discuss specific valuation matters are welcomed. To add your name to our mailing list to receive this complimentary publication, visit our web site at www.mercercapital.com.
In This Issue
Oil and Gas Commodity Prices 1
Macro Update 2
Upstream Economics: Back in Black 3
Next Steps 4
Region Focus: Eagle Ford 5
Production and Activity Levels 5
Financial Performance 7
EOG Doubles Down on “Double Premium”
Locations
8
Market Valuations & Transaction History 9
Transactions in the Eagle Ford 9
Chevron Adds to Eagle Ford Play and
Global Portfolio with Noble Acquisition
10
Ovintiv Further Deleverages with Eagle
Ford Asset Sale
10
Selected Public Company Information 11
Production 15
Rig Count 16
Contact Us
Bryce Erickson, ASA, MRICS
214.468.8400
ericksonb@mercercapital.com
Dallas Office
Don Erickson, ASA
214.468.8400
ericksond@mercercapital.com
Dallas Office
J. David Smith, ASA, CFA
713.239.1005
smithd@mercercapital.com
Houston Office
Alex M. Barry, CFA
214.468.8400
barrya@mercercapital.com
Dallas Office
Jake M. Stacy
469.904.6718
stacyj@mercercapital.com
Dallas Office
Justin J. F. Ramirez, AM
832.966.0307
ramirezj@mercercapital.com
Houston Office
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 1
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
Crude prices increased during Q1, with WTI starting January at approximately $48/bbl and ending March at roughly
$59/bbl. Brent followed the same pattern as WTI and ended the quarter at approximately $64/bbl. In March 2021’s
Short Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) cited positive news regarding
COVID-19 vaccines as a potential driver for the increase, as well as ongoing petroleum supply limitations by OPEC+.
In addition, supply disruptions from extreme winter weather conditions (notably in Texas) put upward pressure on
crude prices in February.
Natural gas prices were much more volatile, though prices started and ended the quarter at approximately $2.60/
mmbtu. Natural gas prices reached over $3.00/mmbtu in February but were also lower than $2.50/mmbtu for some of
the quarter. Prices rose in January and February as seasonal demand for heating increased but moderated later in
the quarter as warmer-than-normal temperatures reduced heating demand. Regional spot prices were much more
volatile as cold weather disrupted gas production and transmission while also increasing demand for heat and elec-
tricity.
Oil and Gas
Commodity
Prices
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
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Natural
Gas
($/mmbtu)
Crude
Oil
($/bbl)
WTI Brent Henry Hub
Source: Capital IQ
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 2
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
Macro Update It has been almost a year since crude prices went into the abyss on April 20, 2020. What a day that was: OPEC’s
shoe had already dropped, and the realities of COVID-19’s short term consequences panicked the global oil market
into a historic backlog. Crude tankers were stranded on the seas, storage filled up, and for a short while production
had nowhere to go.
The havoc wreaked on markets was severe. Demand was projected to drop between 20% and 35% by some (con-
sumption actually dropped about 22% per the EIA). Reserve lives for some major producers dropped by around 10
years and between them reported losses north of $60 billion in 2020. To be fair, there are a couple of ways to look at
this: one is a market decline in interest in these commodities; another could be rooted in the demand from investors
for more nimble balance sheets coupled with the growing ability to develop acreage relatively quickly. Beyond the
decline of reserves, (both through production decline and economic characterization), the bankruptcy casualty counts
also skyrocketed as we have discussed before. According to the latest Haynes & Boone data, there were eight new
bankruptcies in the first quarter of 2021 and over $1.8 billion in aggregate debt.
What a difference a year makes.
WTI has recently hovered around
$60/bbl. Many analysts now predict
oil to stay in the $60’s (or higher) for
the rest of 2021 (EIA on the other
hand projects the mid-$50’s). It
appears that low prices may have
been a cure for low prices. The
Dallas Fed came out with their quar-
terly Energy Survey on March 24th
and its results were quite shocking
to many. Its business activity index
was at its highest reading ever in the
five-year history of the survey.
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 3
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
Macro Update Guarded optimism among industry players is creeping back into the picture: “We are optimistic that we will have a
weaning of excess oil supply, and more importantly, suppliers of oil and gas, that will lead to a slightly higher sus-
tainable price,” said a respondent to the Dallas Fed. The S&P’s SPDR Oil and Gas Production ETF which dropped
to around $30 (split adjusted) in March 2020 is now trading around $80. Production and capex spending are emerging
as well in response to rising demand. Global oil demand and supply are moving towards balance in the second half
of this year, per the IEA’s latest monthly report. In fact, producers may then need to pump a further 2 million bbl/d
to meet the demand. OPEC, which has been withholding supply in tandem with other producers including Russia,
this week raised its forecast for global oil demand this year. OPEC expects demand to rise by 70,000 bbl/d from last
month’s forecast and global demand is likely to rise by 5.95 million bbl/d in 2021.
It must be a relief to be “let loose from the noose” of low prices. A lot of producers should be singing AC/DC nowadays.
It is now profitable to drill a lot more wells than a year ago. Back then existing wells were not profitable, much less
undrilled ones. In terms of reserve metrics, we have said before that value erosion usually starts at the bottom cate-
gories of a reserve report and moves upwards. Value accretion moves in reverse. The increased pricing is making
larger swaths of reserves economic again.
Upstream Economics:
Back in Black
In the top two areas in which your firm is active:
What WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well?
NOTES: Lines show the mean, and bars
show the range of responses. Executives
from 92 exploration and production firms
answered this question during the survey
collection period, March 10-18, 2021.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 4
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
Macro Update Even though compared to last year, the survey chart on the previous page has not changed dramatically, there is
nonetheless a lot of pressure off of producers to find new economical wells to drill.
Even so, one thing that is different this time around may be the cautiousness of investors and producers to jump back
on the drill bit right away. Investors have already been pulling valuations down as their standard tilted more towards
shorter term returns as opposed to longer term reserves. Additionally, the Fed Survey was littered with comments
expressing concern about the Biden administration’s policies being more aggressive towards regulation and ESG,
thus promoting caution for aggressive drilling. In fact, the American Petroleum Institute (of all organizations) is now
considering carbon pricing frameworks. Lastly, OPEC+ could yank the rug out from shale producers again if they
are perceived as ramping up too quickly, according to Scott D. Sheffield, Pioneer’s CEO, . (It is notable though that
Pioneer just bought West Texas producer DoublePoint for $6.4 billion. That’s approximately $30,000 per flowing
barrel and $40,000 per undeveloped acre).
So where does this leave us? Well, in a lot better place for producers and investors than last year – that’s to be sure.
The companies that have hung in this past year and made it are starting to see some improvement. That’s also good
because those that utilized PPP money have been in need of price help once the government subsidies ran out. In
addition, with all of the attention towards electric vehicles replacing the combustion engine, we must remind ourselves
that only 1% of the U.S. light fleet is EV and that light vehicles only make up 25% of crude oil use. Demand will not be
pulled out from under oil’s feet just yet.
Markets are fast moving and unforgiving at times, but it appears with $60+ oil prices for 2021, that the upstream
business can now start to slow down, look around, and evaluate what direction to go next.
Next Steps
Upstream Economics:
Back in Black (cont.)
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 5
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
The economics of oil and gas production varies by region. Mercer Capital focuses on trends in the Eagle Ford,
Permian, Bakken, and Marcellus and Utica plays. The cost of producing oil and gas depends on the geological
makeup of the reserve, depth of reserve, and cost to transport the raw crude to market. We can observe different
costs in different regions depending on these factors. This quarter we take a closer look at the Eagle Ford.
Estimated Eagle Ford production declined approximately 23% year-over-year through March. This is the most severe
decline observed for all of Mercer Capital’s coverage areas, with production in the Bakken, Permian, and Appalachia
down 19%, down 8%, and up 3%, respectively. In the immediate aftermath of the Saudi/Russian price war and
historic rout in oil prices, the Eagle Ford’s production decline was less severe than what was seen in the Bakken,
though the rebound in the Eagle Ford was also more muted. During the fourth quarter of 2020, Eagle Ford production
trended downward once again, and appears to have been materially impacted in February 2021 by the cold weather
that disrupted power supplies throughout Texas.
Eagle Ford
Production and Activity
Levels
-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
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Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia
Source: Energy Information Administration
1-Year Change in Production
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 6
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
However, the Eagle Ford’s rig count has generally been rising over the past six months. Total rigs in the Eagle Ford
stood at 31 as of March 26, down over 50% from the prior year, but more than 3x higher than the low of 9 rigs observed
in September 2020. Bakken, Permian, and Appalachia rig counts were down 71%, 42%, and 19% year-over-year,
though have all rebounded from the September lows (though not as dramatically as the Eagle Ford’s rise since then).
While recent data has been noisy, the Eagle Ford’s current rig count should keep production relatively flat, based on
legacy production declines and new-well production per rig.
The Eagle Ford public comp group had a banner year for stock price performance over the past twelve months, with
Penn Virginia, Silverbow, Mongolia, and EOG up 334%, 215%, 187%, and 102%, respectively. All except EOG out-
Eagle Ford
Production and Activity
Levels (cont.)
-90%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
M
ar-20
Apr-20
M
ay-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
O
ct-20
N
ov-20
D
ec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
M
ar-21
Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Total
Source: Baker Hughes
1-Year Change in Rig Count
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 7
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
performed the broader E&P sector, as proxied by XOP (which was up 157% during the past twelve months). However,
that stock price performance is largely driven by the exceptionally low starting point in March 2020, as the Saudi/
Russian price war and reduced demand due to COVID-19 lockdowns created significant concern among investors
regarding the financial position of E&P companies, especially those with significant leverage. Stock prices for the four
companies remain below all-time highs.
In their Q4 2020 earnings call and presentation, EOG touted its inventory of “Double Premium” locations, which meet
EOG’s new return hurdle of 60% Direct After-Tax Rate of Return (ATROR) at $40 oil and $2.50 natural gas. While
Eagle Ford
Financial Performance
1-Year Change in Stock Price
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
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EOG MGY SBOW PVAC XOP
Source: Capital IQ
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 8
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
Eagle Ford
EOG Doubles Down on
“Double Premium”
Locations
not clearly defined, EOG describes Direct ATROR as including “the costs associated with drilling and completion
operations and wellsite facilities.” All-In ATROR, which is more akin to a full-cycle calculation, “includes such costs
as well as (i) the costs associated with other facilities, lease acquisitions, delay rentals and gathering and processing
operations and (ii) geological and geophysical costs, exploration G&A costs, capitalized interest and other miscella-
neous costs.” Per EOG’s presentation, roughly half of EOG’s 11,500 premium locations fit the underwriting criteria to
be classified as “double premium.”
However, E&P companies have long been criticized for touting well-level IRRs and other bespoke financial metrics
that imply phenomenal economics, but don’t seem to result in corresponding corporate-level returns. We’ll see if
EOG’s more stringent underwriting standards translate to shareholder returns.
The Eagle Ford was among the regions hardest hit by low commodity prices. The recent increase in rig count bodes
well for stemming production declines, though more rigs are likely needed for material production growth given natural
declines in existing production. However, with investors and E&P management teams focused on returns rather than
growth, current commodity prices may not lead to the expansion in activity that’s been seen in previous cycles.
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© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 9
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
Transaction Activity Slows Amid Challenging 2020
Over the last year, deal activity in the Eagle Ford was relatively muted after the impact that the Saudi-Russian conflict
and COVID-19 had on the price environment. M&A deals were largely halted in the second quarter of 2020 as com-
panies turned to survival mode amid the challenging realities. Frankly, transaction due diligence was most likely last
on companies’ agendas. However, announced, and rumored transactions in the Eagle Ford picked up, towards the
second half of the year, relative to early 2020, as a price recovery began to take hold.
Recent Transactions in the Eagle Ford
A table detailing E&P transaction activity in the Eagle Ford over the last twelve months is shown below. Relative to
2019, deal count decreased by four and median deal size declined by roughly $74 million, however it is important to
note the small sample of disclosed deal metrics.
Market Valuations &
Transaction History
Transactions in the Eagle Ford
Announced
Date Buyer Seller
Deal Value
($MM) $ / Acre $ / Boepd
3/24/21 Validus Energy Ovintiv Inc. $880 $20,952 $41,905
4/13/20 Silverbow Resources Undisclosed na nm nm
5/12/20 Magnolia Oil & Gas Undisclosed 70 nm 87,500
7/20/20 Chevron Corp Noble Energy, Inc. 13,000 28,078 37,143
8/18/20 Ensign Natural Resources LLC Newpek LLC na nm nm
11/2/20 BWC Terminals NuStar Energy L.P. 106 nm nm
11/3/20 Penn Virginia Corp Rocky Creek Resources, LLC 38 9,366 41,921
11/11/20 Easton Energy LLC ExxonMobil na nm nm
Median $106 $20,952 $41,913
Average $2,819 $19,465 $52,117
Source: Shale Experts
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 10
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
Chevron Adds to Eagle Ford Play and Global Portfolio with Noble Acquisition
On July 20, 2020, Chevron announced that it was acquiring Noble Energy, Inc. in an all-stock transaction valued at $10.38
per Noble share, based on Chevron’s stock price just prior to announcement and an exchange ratio of 0.1191 Chevron
shares per Noble share, representing an approximate premium of nearly 12% on a 10-day average based on the closing
prices on July 17, 2020. The total enterprise value of the deal (including debt) was pegged at $13 billion in the transaction
press release. The deal closed on October 5, 2020, marking the completion of the first big-dollar energy deal since the
market turmoil began in March 2020. The acquisition makes Chevron the second U.S. shale oil producer behind EOG
Resources, Inc. Noble’s international plays also add 1 Bcf of international natural gas reserves to Chevron’s portfolio.
Noble Energy’s domestic plays include the Permian Basin, Denver-Julesburg Basin, and the Eagle Ford.
Ovintiv Further Deleverages with Eagle Ford Asset Sale
On March 24, 2021, Ovintiv Inc. agreed to sell its South Texas assets for $880 million to Validus Energy (portfolio company
of Pontem Energy Capital), a privately owned operator. The transaction occurred roughly two weeks after sources
rumored that Ovintiv was in advanced discussions to divest its Eagle Ford assets. The deal announcement comes shortly
after Ovintiv’s debt reduction initiative outlined in February 2021, which includes generating approximately $1 billion by
divesting certain domestic and international assets. In 2019, Ovintiv’s debt had increased to roughly $7 billion after its
purchase of Newfield Exploration. The company aims to reduce debt by 35% to about $4.5 billion by 2022 in order to gain
investor confidence. The company announced that the transaction will allow them to reach the debt target by the middle of
next year. Ovintiv has divested two geographic positions in consecutive quarters, with the first sale being their Duvernay
position in Q4 2020. The company’s Eagle Ford position was purchased for $3.1 billion in 2014 from Freeport-McMoRan
Inc. The company expects the deal to close in the second quarter of 2021.
M&A transaction activity in the Eagle Ford was fairly quiet throughout 2020 before Chevron’s $13 billion deal with Noble
Energy. The Chevron-Noble Energy transaction and the Ovintiv-Validus deal could be foreshadowing a busier M&A
market in 2021, whether companies try to bolt on to previous acreage, or are forced to divest to pay down debt.
Market Valuations &
Transaction History
(cont.)
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 11
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
Mercer Capital tracks the performance of Exploration and Production companies across different mineral reserves in order to understand how the current pricing envi-
ronment affects operators in each region. We created an index of seven groups to better understand performance trends across reserves and the industry. The current
pricing multiples of each company in the index are summarized below.
Appendix A
Selected Public Company Information
as of March 31, 2021
Company Name Ticker
3/31/2021
Enterprise Value
YoY % Change in
Stock Price
EBITDAX
Margin
EV/
EBITDAX
Daily
Production
(mboe/d)
Price per Flowing
Barrel*
Global Integrated Oil and Gas
Companies
Exxon Mobil Corp XOM $303,292 47.04% nm 12.3x 3,789 $80,037
Royal Dutch Shell PLC RDS/A $74,623 12.38% 19.2% 2.2x 3,485 $21,412
Chevron Corp CVX $241,407 44.62% 13.8% 18.3x 3,223 $74,904
BP PLC BP $117,600 -14.40% 12.5% 5.1x 3,459 $33,995
Equinor ASA EQNR $557,785 27.56% 35.0% 34.0x 2,163 $257,852
Group Median 27.56% 16.5% 12.3x 3,459 $74,904
Global E&P Companies
Marathon Oil Corp MRO $12,833 224.62% 40.9% 9.6x 355 $36,151
Hess Corp HES $29,769 112.49% 60.1% 9.7x 310 $96,092
ConocoPhillips COP $83,151 71.98% 29.2% 12.5x 1,341 $62,008
Occidental Petroleum Corp OXY $70,675 129.88% 44.0% 9.7x 1,152 $61,358
APA Corp APA $16,649 nm 51.3% 6.5x 381 $43,705
Murphy Oil Corp MUR $6,154 167.70% 44.5% 7.9x 159 $38,646
Group Median 129.88% 44.2% 9.7x 368 $52,531
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
•	 Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d)
•	 We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified.
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 12
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
as of March 31, 2021
Company Name Ticker
3/31/2021
Enterprise Value
YoY % Change in
Stock Price
EBITDAX
Margin
EV/
EBITDAX
Daily
Production
(mboe/d)
Price per Flowing
Barrel*
Bakken
Continental Resources Inc/OK CLR $4,996 238.61% 74.2% 2.4x 301 $16,576
Whiting Petroleum Corp WLL $284 nm 26.9% 1.3x 88 $3,240
Oasis Petroleum Inc OAS $681 nm 14.6% 4.6x 61 $11,204
Group Median 238.61% 26.86% 2.4x 88 $11,204
Appalachia
Range Resources Corp RRC $3,139 nm 18.5% 8.5x 365 $8,602
EQT Corp EQT $4,806 162.80% 28.1% 5.7x 747 $6,433
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp COG $1,079 9.25% 52.0% 1.4x 395 $2,730
Antero Resources Corp AR $5,119 nm 41.6% 3.1x 572 $8,949
Southwestern Energy Co SWN $3,171 175.15% 15.9% 7.1x 495 $6,404
Group Median 162.80% 28.1% 5.7x 495 $6,433
Permian Basin
Diamondback Energy Inc FANG $7,656 180.50% 39.8% 6.5x 345 $22,211
Centennial Resource Development Inc/DE CDEV $1,066 nm 37.1% 5.0x 59 $17,988
Callon Petroleum Co CPE $2,937 nm 12.2% 21.8x 91 $32,358
Laredo Petroleum Inc LPI $1,163 295.73% 7.6% 21.3x 84 $13,835
Pioneer Natural Resources Co PXD $6,560 126.40% 17.3% 4.7x 474 $13,831
Cimarex Energy Co XEC $2,168 252.88% 36.8% 3.4x 239 $9,075
Group Median 216.69% 27.1% 5.7x 165 $15,912
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
•	 Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d)
•	 We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified.
Appendix A
Selected Public Company Information
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 13
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
as of March 31, 2021
Company Name Ticker
3/31/2021
Enterprise Value
YoY % Change in
Stock Price
EBITDAX
Margin
EV/
EBITDAX
Daily
Production
(mboe/d)
Price per Flowing
Barrel*
Eagle Ford
EOG Resources Inc EOG $5,402 101.92% 47.6% 1.1x 808 $6,685
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp MGY $397 187.00% 66.3% 1.1x 61 $6,556
SilverBow Resources Inc SBOW $399 214.98% 47.0% 4.0x na na
Penn Virginia Corp PVAC $378 nm 34.0% 4.3x 23 $16,137
Group Median 187.00% 47.3% 2.6x 61 $6,685
OVERALL MEDIAN 129.88% 35.92% 5.7x 373 $17,282
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
•	 Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d)
•	 We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified.
Appendix A
Selected Public Company Information
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 14
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
Price per Flowing Barrel
Appendix A
Selected Public
Company
Information
The following graph depicts the median of EV/production multiples, also known as price per flowing barrel for Q1 2021.
The Permian led the group at approximately $16,000/Bpoed and the Eagle Ford ranked third at approximately $6,700.
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
2021 Q1
$
/
Bpeod
Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia
Source: Bloomberg and Capital IQ
•	 Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/ daily production ($/boe/d)
•	 This is simply a graphic depiction of median figures of our selected public companies for each region. This should be interpreted solely in
the context of relative valuation between the various basins over time. Bloomberg aggregates this raw data, and Mercer Capital does not
represent or warrant these figures as indicative of valuation multiples attributable to E&P companies or other interests.
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 15
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
Appendix B
Production
Oil production in the Permian, Eagle
Ford, Bakken, and Appalachia all expe-
rienced negative production growth
over the last year, 10.3%, 24.4%, 21.7%,
and 6.1% respectively.
Natural gas production in the Appa-
lachia has increased 3.4% over the last
year. Growth in the Permian, Eagle
Ford, and Bakken have decreased
1.0%, 20.1%, and 12.3%, respectively.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
M
ar-16
Sep-16
M
ar-17
Sep-17
M
ar-18
Sep-18
M
ar-19
Sep-19
M
ar-20
Sep-20
M
ar-21
mmbbl/d
Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia
Source: EIA
Source: EIA
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
M
ar-16
Sep-16
M
ar-17
Sep-17
M
ar-18
Sep-18
M
ar-19
Sep-19
M
ar-20
Sep-20
M
ar-21
mmcf/d
Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia
Source: EIA
Daily Production of Crude Oil
Daily Production of Natural Gas
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 16
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
Appendix B
Rig Count
Rig Count by Region
Baker Hughes collects and publishes information regarding active drilling rigs in the United States and internationally.
The number of active rigs is a key indicator of demand for oilfield services & equipment. Factors influencing rig counts
include energy prices, investment climate, technological changes, regulatory activity, weather, and seasonality.
The number of active rigs in the United States as of March 31, 2021 stood at 416, a 19.9% increase from December
31, 2020, and a 42.7% decrease from March 2020. The rig count in the Eagle Ford decreased from 63 to 31 rigs over
the last year as E&P operators are cutting rigs in light of recent issues. However, rig count in the Eagle Ford has
increased from 26 to 31 in the last quarter.
1	
Calculations based on monthly crude oil and gas production and EIA drilling report by region.
0
300
600
900
1,200
M
a
r
-
1
6
S
e
p
-
1
6
M
a
r
-
1
7
S
e
p
-
1
7
M
a
r
-
1
8
S
e
p
-
1
8
M
a
r
-
1
9
S
e
p
-
1
9
M
a
r
-
2
0
S
e
p
-
2
0
M
a
r
-
2
1
Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Other
Source: Baker Hughes
© 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 17
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy
U.S. Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural Gas
Appendix B
Rig Count
U.S. Rig Count by Trajectory
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
M
a
r
-
1
6
S
e
p
-
1
6
M
a
r
-
1
7
S
e
p
-
1
7
M
a
r
-
1
8
S
e
p
-
1
8
M
a
r
-
1
9
S
e
p
-
1
9
M
a
r
-
2
0
S
e
p
-
2
0
M
a
r
-
2
1
Oil Gas
Source: Baker Hughes
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
M
a
r
-
1
6
S
e
p
-
1
6
M
a
r
-
1
7
S
e
p
-
1
7
M
a
r
-
1
8
S
e
p
-
1
8
M
a
r
-
1
9
S
e
p
-
1
9
M
a
r
-
2
0
S
e
p
-
2
0
M
a
r
-
2
1
Directional Horizontal Vertical
Source: Baker Hughes
Mercer Capital
www.mercercapital.com

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Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q1 2021 | Region Focus: Eagle Ford

  • 1. BUSINESS VALUATION & FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES VALUE FOCUS Exploration & Production First Quarter 2021 // Region Focus: Eagle Ford EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The first quarter of 2021 saw generally increasing commodity prices, a welcome change from the volatile price environment seen during 2020. WTI increased from approximately $48/bbl to $59/bbl during the first quarter. Natural gas was volatile but started and ended the quarter at approximately $2.60/mmbtu. With a more constructive commodity price backdrop, some see a recovery in sight, but ongoing uncertainty looms as the Biden Administration begins implementing its oil & gas policies. In this newsletter, we examine the macroeconomic factors that have affected the industry in the first quarter of 2021 and peek behind the curtain on what the remainder of 2021 might hold.
  • 2. BUSINESS VALUATION & FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES Industry Segments Mercer Capital serves the following industry segments: • Exploration & Production • Oilfield Services • Midstream • Refining & Marketing Oil and Gas Industry Services Mercer Capital provides business valuation and financial advisory services to companies throughout the U.S. in the oil & gas industry. Services Provided • Valuation of oil & gas companies • Transaction advisory for acquisitions and divestitures • Valuations for purchase accounting and impairment testing • Fairness and solvency opinions • Litigation support for economic damages and valuation and shareholder disputes Learn More about Mercer Capital & our Oil and Gas Services at mer.cr/oilgas Copyright © 2021 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged. Reporters requesting additional information or editorial comment should contact Barbara Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Industry Focus is published quarterly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an information service to our clients and friends. Those interested in specific guidance for legal or accounting matters should seek competent professional advice. Inquiries to discuss specific valuation matters are welcomed. To add your name to our mailing list to receive this complimentary publication, visit our web site at www.mercercapital.com. In This Issue Oil and Gas Commodity Prices 1 Macro Update 2 Upstream Economics: Back in Black 3 Next Steps 4 Region Focus: Eagle Ford 5 Production and Activity Levels 5 Financial Performance 7 EOG Doubles Down on “Double Premium” Locations 8 Market Valuations & Transaction History 9 Transactions in the Eagle Ford 9 Chevron Adds to Eagle Ford Play and Global Portfolio with Noble Acquisition 10 Ovintiv Further Deleverages with Eagle Ford Asset Sale 10 Selected Public Company Information 11 Production 15 Rig Count 16 Contact Us Bryce Erickson, ASA, MRICS 214.468.8400 ericksonb@mercercapital.com Dallas Office Don Erickson, ASA 214.468.8400 ericksond@mercercapital.com Dallas Office J. David Smith, ASA, CFA 713.239.1005 smithd@mercercapital.com Houston Office Alex M. Barry, CFA 214.468.8400 barrya@mercercapital.com Dallas Office Jake M. Stacy 469.904.6718 stacyj@mercercapital.com Dallas Office Justin J. F. Ramirez, AM 832.966.0307 ramirezj@mercercapital.com Houston Office
  • 3. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 1 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy Crude prices increased during Q1, with WTI starting January at approximately $48/bbl and ending March at roughly $59/bbl. Brent followed the same pattern as WTI and ended the quarter at approximately $64/bbl. In March 2021’s Short Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) cited positive news regarding COVID-19 vaccines as a potential driver for the increase, as well as ongoing petroleum supply limitations by OPEC+. In addition, supply disruptions from extreme winter weather conditions (notably in Texas) put upward pressure on crude prices in February. Natural gas prices were much more volatile, though prices started and ended the quarter at approximately $2.60/ mmbtu. Natural gas prices reached over $3.00/mmbtu in February but were also lower than $2.50/mmbtu for some of the quarter. Prices rose in January and February as seasonal demand for heating increased but moderated later in the quarter as warmer-than-normal temperatures reduced heating demand. Regional spot prices were much more volatile as cold weather disrupted gas production and transmission while also increasing demand for heat and elec- tricity. Oil and Gas Commodity Prices Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 M a r - 2 0 A p r - 2 0 M a y - 2 0 J u n - 2 0 J u l - 2 0 A u g - 2 0 S e p - 2 0 O c t - 2 0 N o v - 2 0 D e c - 2 0 J a n - 2 1 F e b - 2 1 M a r - 2 1 Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) Crude Oil ($/bbl) WTI Brent Henry Hub Source: Capital IQ
  • 4. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 2 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy Macro Update It has been almost a year since crude prices went into the abyss on April 20, 2020. What a day that was: OPEC’s shoe had already dropped, and the realities of COVID-19’s short term consequences panicked the global oil market into a historic backlog. Crude tankers were stranded on the seas, storage filled up, and for a short while production had nowhere to go. The havoc wreaked on markets was severe. Demand was projected to drop between 20% and 35% by some (con- sumption actually dropped about 22% per the EIA). Reserve lives for some major producers dropped by around 10 years and between them reported losses north of $60 billion in 2020. To be fair, there are a couple of ways to look at this: one is a market decline in interest in these commodities; another could be rooted in the demand from investors for more nimble balance sheets coupled with the growing ability to develop acreage relatively quickly. Beyond the decline of reserves, (both through production decline and economic characterization), the bankruptcy casualty counts also skyrocketed as we have discussed before. According to the latest Haynes & Boone data, there were eight new bankruptcies in the first quarter of 2021 and over $1.8 billion in aggregate debt. What a difference a year makes. WTI has recently hovered around $60/bbl. Many analysts now predict oil to stay in the $60’s (or higher) for the rest of 2021 (EIA on the other hand projects the mid-$50’s). It appears that low prices may have been a cure for low prices. The Dallas Fed came out with their quar- terly Energy Survey on March 24th and its results were quite shocking to many. Its business activity index was at its highest reading ever in the five-year history of the survey.
  • 5. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 3 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy Macro Update Guarded optimism among industry players is creeping back into the picture: “We are optimistic that we will have a weaning of excess oil supply, and more importantly, suppliers of oil and gas, that will lead to a slightly higher sus- tainable price,” said a respondent to the Dallas Fed. The S&P’s SPDR Oil and Gas Production ETF which dropped to around $30 (split adjusted) in March 2020 is now trading around $80. Production and capex spending are emerging as well in response to rising demand. Global oil demand and supply are moving towards balance in the second half of this year, per the IEA’s latest monthly report. In fact, producers may then need to pump a further 2 million bbl/d to meet the demand. OPEC, which has been withholding supply in tandem with other producers including Russia, this week raised its forecast for global oil demand this year. OPEC expects demand to rise by 70,000 bbl/d from last month’s forecast and global demand is likely to rise by 5.95 million bbl/d in 2021. It must be a relief to be “let loose from the noose” of low prices. A lot of producers should be singing AC/DC nowadays. It is now profitable to drill a lot more wells than a year ago. Back then existing wells were not profitable, much less undrilled ones. In terms of reserve metrics, we have said before that value erosion usually starts at the bottom cate- gories of a reserve report and moves upwards. Value accretion moves in reverse. The increased pricing is making larger swaths of reserves economic again. Upstream Economics: Back in Black In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well? NOTES: Lines show the mean, and bars show the range of responses. Executives from 92 exploration and production firms answered this question during the survey collection period, March 10-18, 2021. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
  • 6. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 4 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy Macro Update Even though compared to last year, the survey chart on the previous page has not changed dramatically, there is nonetheless a lot of pressure off of producers to find new economical wells to drill. Even so, one thing that is different this time around may be the cautiousness of investors and producers to jump back on the drill bit right away. Investors have already been pulling valuations down as their standard tilted more towards shorter term returns as opposed to longer term reserves. Additionally, the Fed Survey was littered with comments expressing concern about the Biden administration’s policies being more aggressive towards regulation and ESG, thus promoting caution for aggressive drilling. In fact, the American Petroleum Institute (of all organizations) is now considering carbon pricing frameworks. Lastly, OPEC+ could yank the rug out from shale producers again if they are perceived as ramping up too quickly, according to Scott D. Sheffield, Pioneer’s CEO, . (It is notable though that Pioneer just bought West Texas producer DoublePoint for $6.4 billion. That’s approximately $30,000 per flowing barrel and $40,000 per undeveloped acre). So where does this leave us? Well, in a lot better place for producers and investors than last year – that’s to be sure. The companies that have hung in this past year and made it are starting to see some improvement. That’s also good because those that utilized PPP money have been in need of price help once the government subsidies ran out. In addition, with all of the attention towards electric vehicles replacing the combustion engine, we must remind ourselves that only 1% of the U.S. light fleet is EV and that light vehicles only make up 25% of crude oil use. Demand will not be pulled out from under oil’s feet just yet. Markets are fast moving and unforgiving at times, but it appears with $60+ oil prices for 2021, that the upstream business can now start to slow down, look around, and evaluate what direction to go next. Next Steps Upstream Economics: Back in Black (cont.)
  • 7. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 5 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy The economics of oil and gas production varies by region. Mercer Capital focuses on trends in the Eagle Ford, Permian, Bakken, and Marcellus and Utica plays. The cost of producing oil and gas depends on the geological makeup of the reserve, depth of reserve, and cost to transport the raw crude to market. We can observe different costs in different regions depending on these factors. This quarter we take a closer look at the Eagle Ford. Estimated Eagle Ford production declined approximately 23% year-over-year through March. This is the most severe decline observed for all of Mercer Capital’s coverage areas, with production in the Bakken, Permian, and Appalachia down 19%, down 8%, and up 3%, respectively. In the immediate aftermath of the Saudi/Russian price war and historic rout in oil prices, the Eagle Ford’s production decline was less severe than what was seen in the Bakken, though the rebound in the Eagle Ford was also more muted. During the fourth quarter of 2020, Eagle Ford production trended downward once again, and appears to have been materially impacted in February 2021 by the cold weather that disrupted power supplies throughout Texas. Eagle Ford Production and Activity Levels -45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% M a r - 2 0 A p r - 2 0 M a y - 2 0 J u n - 2 0 J u l - 2 0 A u g - 2 0 S e p - 2 0 O c t - 2 0 N o v - 2 0 D e c - 2 0 J a n - 2 1 F e b - 2 1 M a r - 2 1 Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Source: Energy Information Administration 1-Year Change in Production
  • 8. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 6 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy However, the Eagle Ford’s rig count has generally been rising over the past six months. Total rigs in the Eagle Ford stood at 31 as of March 26, down over 50% from the prior year, but more than 3x higher than the low of 9 rigs observed in September 2020. Bakken, Permian, and Appalachia rig counts were down 71%, 42%, and 19% year-over-year, though have all rebounded from the September lows (though not as dramatically as the Eagle Ford’s rise since then). While recent data has been noisy, the Eagle Ford’s current rig count should keep production relatively flat, based on legacy production declines and new-well production per rig. The Eagle Ford public comp group had a banner year for stock price performance over the past twelve months, with Penn Virginia, Silverbow, Mongolia, and EOG up 334%, 215%, 187%, and 102%, respectively. All except EOG out- Eagle Ford Production and Activity Levels (cont.) -90% -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% M ar-20 Apr-20 M ay-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 O ct-20 N ov-20 D ec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 M ar-21 Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Total Source: Baker Hughes 1-Year Change in Rig Count
  • 9. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 7 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy performed the broader E&P sector, as proxied by XOP (which was up 157% during the past twelve months). However, that stock price performance is largely driven by the exceptionally low starting point in March 2020, as the Saudi/ Russian price war and reduced demand due to COVID-19 lockdowns created significant concern among investors regarding the financial position of E&P companies, especially those with significant leverage. Stock prices for the four companies remain below all-time highs. In their Q4 2020 earnings call and presentation, EOG touted its inventory of “Double Premium” locations, which meet EOG’s new return hurdle of 60% Direct After-Tax Rate of Return (ATROR) at $40 oil and $2.50 natural gas. While Eagle Ford Financial Performance 1-Year Change in Stock Price -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% M a r - 2 0 A p r - 2 0 M a y - 2 0 J u n - 2 0 J u l - 2 0 A u g - 2 0 S e p - 2 0 O c t - 2 0 N o v - 2 0 D e c - 2 0 J a n - 2 1 F e b - 2 1 M a r - 2 1 EOG MGY SBOW PVAC XOP Source: Capital IQ
  • 10. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 8 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy Eagle Ford EOG Doubles Down on “Double Premium” Locations not clearly defined, EOG describes Direct ATROR as including “the costs associated with drilling and completion operations and wellsite facilities.” All-In ATROR, which is more akin to a full-cycle calculation, “includes such costs as well as (i) the costs associated with other facilities, lease acquisitions, delay rentals and gathering and processing operations and (ii) geological and geophysical costs, exploration G&A costs, capitalized interest and other miscella- neous costs.” Per EOG’s presentation, roughly half of EOG’s 11,500 premium locations fit the underwriting criteria to be classified as “double premium.” However, E&P companies have long been criticized for touting well-level IRRs and other bespoke financial metrics that imply phenomenal economics, but don’t seem to result in corresponding corporate-level returns. We’ll see if EOG’s more stringent underwriting standards translate to shareholder returns. The Eagle Ford was among the regions hardest hit by low commodity prices. The recent increase in rig count bodes well for stemming production declines, though more rigs are likely needed for material production growth given natural declines in existing production. However, with investors and E&P management teams focused on returns rather than growth, current commodity prices may not lead to the expansion in activity that’s been seen in previous cycles. DON’T MISS OUT Subscribe to our Energy Valuations Insights Blog A weekly update on issues important to the oil and gas industry. SUBSCRIBE
  • 11. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 9 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy Transaction Activity Slows Amid Challenging 2020 Over the last year, deal activity in the Eagle Ford was relatively muted after the impact that the Saudi-Russian conflict and COVID-19 had on the price environment. M&A deals were largely halted in the second quarter of 2020 as com- panies turned to survival mode amid the challenging realities. Frankly, transaction due diligence was most likely last on companies’ agendas. However, announced, and rumored transactions in the Eagle Ford picked up, towards the second half of the year, relative to early 2020, as a price recovery began to take hold. Recent Transactions in the Eagle Ford A table detailing E&P transaction activity in the Eagle Ford over the last twelve months is shown below. Relative to 2019, deal count decreased by four and median deal size declined by roughly $74 million, however it is important to note the small sample of disclosed deal metrics. Market Valuations & Transaction History Transactions in the Eagle Ford Announced Date Buyer Seller Deal Value ($MM) $ / Acre $ / Boepd 3/24/21 Validus Energy Ovintiv Inc. $880 $20,952 $41,905 4/13/20 Silverbow Resources Undisclosed na nm nm 5/12/20 Magnolia Oil & Gas Undisclosed 70 nm 87,500 7/20/20 Chevron Corp Noble Energy, Inc. 13,000 28,078 37,143 8/18/20 Ensign Natural Resources LLC Newpek LLC na nm nm 11/2/20 BWC Terminals NuStar Energy L.P. 106 nm nm 11/3/20 Penn Virginia Corp Rocky Creek Resources, LLC 38 9,366 41,921 11/11/20 Easton Energy LLC ExxonMobil na nm nm Median $106 $20,952 $41,913 Average $2,819 $19,465 $52,117 Source: Shale Experts
  • 12. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 10 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy Chevron Adds to Eagle Ford Play and Global Portfolio with Noble Acquisition On July 20, 2020, Chevron announced that it was acquiring Noble Energy, Inc. in an all-stock transaction valued at $10.38 per Noble share, based on Chevron’s stock price just prior to announcement and an exchange ratio of 0.1191 Chevron shares per Noble share, representing an approximate premium of nearly 12% on a 10-day average based on the closing prices on July 17, 2020. The total enterprise value of the deal (including debt) was pegged at $13 billion in the transaction press release. The deal closed on October 5, 2020, marking the completion of the first big-dollar energy deal since the market turmoil began in March 2020. The acquisition makes Chevron the second U.S. shale oil producer behind EOG Resources, Inc. Noble’s international plays also add 1 Bcf of international natural gas reserves to Chevron’s portfolio. Noble Energy’s domestic plays include the Permian Basin, Denver-Julesburg Basin, and the Eagle Ford. Ovintiv Further Deleverages with Eagle Ford Asset Sale On March 24, 2021, Ovintiv Inc. agreed to sell its South Texas assets for $880 million to Validus Energy (portfolio company of Pontem Energy Capital), a privately owned operator. The transaction occurred roughly two weeks after sources rumored that Ovintiv was in advanced discussions to divest its Eagle Ford assets. The deal announcement comes shortly after Ovintiv’s debt reduction initiative outlined in February 2021, which includes generating approximately $1 billion by divesting certain domestic and international assets. In 2019, Ovintiv’s debt had increased to roughly $7 billion after its purchase of Newfield Exploration. The company aims to reduce debt by 35% to about $4.5 billion by 2022 in order to gain investor confidence. The company announced that the transaction will allow them to reach the debt target by the middle of next year. Ovintiv has divested two geographic positions in consecutive quarters, with the first sale being their Duvernay position in Q4 2020. The company’s Eagle Ford position was purchased for $3.1 billion in 2014 from Freeport-McMoRan Inc. The company expects the deal to close in the second quarter of 2021. M&A transaction activity in the Eagle Ford was fairly quiet throughout 2020 before Chevron’s $13 billion deal with Noble Energy. The Chevron-Noble Energy transaction and the Ovintiv-Validus deal could be foreshadowing a busier M&A market in 2021, whether companies try to bolt on to previous acreage, or are forced to divest to pay down debt. Market Valuations & Transaction History (cont.)
  • 13. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 11 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy Mercer Capital tracks the performance of Exploration and Production companies across different mineral reserves in order to understand how the current pricing envi- ronment affects operators in each region. We created an index of seven groups to better understand performance trends across reserves and the industry. The current pricing multiples of each company in the index are summarized below. Appendix A Selected Public Company Information as of March 31, 2021 Company Name Ticker 3/31/2021 Enterprise Value YoY % Change in Stock Price EBITDAX Margin EV/ EBITDAX Daily Production (mboe/d) Price per Flowing Barrel* Global Integrated Oil and Gas Companies Exxon Mobil Corp XOM $303,292 47.04% nm 12.3x 3,789 $80,037 Royal Dutch Shell PLC RDS/A $74,623 12.38% 19.2% 2.2x 3,485 $21,412 Chevron Corp CVX $241,407 44.62% 13.8% 18.3x 3,223 $74,904 BP PLC BP $117,600 -14.40% 12.5% 5.1x 3,459 $33,995 Equinor ASA EQNR $557,785 27.56% 35.0% 34.0x 2,163 $257,852 Group Median 27.56% 16.5% 12.3x 3,459 $74,904 Global E&P Companies Marathon Oil Corp MRO $12,833 224.62% 40.9% 9.6x 355 $36,151 Hess Corp HES $29,769 112.49% 60.1% 9.7x 310 $96,092 ConocoPhillips COP $83,151 71.98% 29.2% 12.5x 1,341 $62,008 Occidental Petroleum Corp OXY $70,675 129.88% 44.0% 9.7x 1,152 $61,358 APA Corp APA $16,649 nm 51.3% 6.5x 381 $43,705 Murphy Oil Corp MUR $6,154 167.70% 44.5% 7.9x 159 $38,646 Group Median 129.88% 44.2% 9.7x 368 $52,531 Source: Bloomberg L.P. • Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d) • We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified.
  • 14. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 12 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy as of March 31, 2021 Company Name Ticker 3/31/2021 Enterprise Value YoY % Change in Stock Price EBITDAX Margin EV/ EBITDAX Daily Production (mboe/d) Price per Flowing Barrel* Bakken Continental Resources Inc/OK CLR $4,996 238.61% 74.2% 2.4x 301 $16,576 Whiting Petroleum Corp WLL $284 nm 26.9% 1.3x 88 $3,240 Oasis Petroleum Inc OAS $681 nm 14.6% 4.6x 61 $11,204 Group Median 238.61% 26.86% 2.4x 88 $11,204 Appalachia Range Resources Corp RRC $3,139 nm 18.5% 8.5x 365 $8,602 EQT Corp EQT $4,806 162.80% 28.1% 5.7x 747 $6,433 Cabot Oil & Gas Corp COG $1,079 9.25% 52.0% 1.4x 395 $2,730 Antero Resources Corp AR $5,119 nm 41.6% 3.1x 572 $8,949 Southwestern Energy Co SWN $3,171 175.15% 15.9% 7.1x 495 $6,404 Group Median 162.80% 28.1% 5.7x 495 $6,433 Permian Basin Diamondback Energy Inc FANG $7,656 180.50% 39.8% 6.5x 345 $22,211 Centennial Resource Development Inc/DE CDEV $1,066 nm 37.1% 5.0x 59 $17,988 Callon Petroleum Co CPE $2,937 nm 12.2% 21.8x 91 $32,358 Laredo Petroleum Inc LPI $1,163 295.73% 7.6% 21.3x 84 $13,835 Pioneer Natural Resources Co PXD $6,560 126.40% 17.3% 4.7x 474 $13,831 Cimarex Energy Co XEC $2,168 252.88% 36.8% 3.4x 239 $9,075 Group Median 216.69% 27.1% 5.7x 165 $15,912 Source: Bloomberg L.P. • Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d) • We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified. Appendix A Selected Public Company Information
  • 15. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 13 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy as of March 31, 2021 Company Name Ticker 3/31/2021 Enterprise Value YoY % Change in Stock Price EBITDAX Margin EV/ EBITDAX Daily Production (mboe/d) Price per Flowing Barrel* Eagle Ford EOG Resources Inc EOG $5,402 101.92% 47.6% 1.1x 808 $6,685 Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp MGY $397 187.00% 66.3% 1.1x 61 $6,556 SilverBow Resources Inc SBOW $399 214.98% 47.0% 4.0x na na Penn Virginia Corp PVAC $378 nm 34.0% 4.3x 23 $16,137 Group Median 187.00% 47.3% 2.6x 61 $6,685 OVERALL MEDIAN 129.88% 35.92% 5.7x 373 $17,282 Source: Bloomberg L.P. • Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/daily production ($/boe/d) • We review 10-K’s and annual reports from guideline companies to ensure companies continue to operate in the regions and groups we have identified. Appendix A Selected Public Company Information
  • 16. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 14 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy Price per Flowing Barrel Appendix A Selected Public Company Information The following graph depicts the median of EV/production multiples, also known as price per flowing barrel for Q1 2021. The Permian led the group at approximately $16,000/Bpoed and the Eagle Ford ranked third at approximately $6,700. $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 2021 Q1 $ / Bpeod Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Source: Bloomberg and Capital IQ • Price per Flowing Barrel is EV/ daily production ($/boe/d) • This is simply a graphic depiction of median figures of our selected public companies for each region. This should be interpreted solely in the context of relative valuation between the various basins over time. Bloomberg aggregates this raw data, and Mercer Capital does not represent or warrant these figures as indicative of valuation multiples attributable to E&P companies or other interests.
  • 17. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 15 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy Appendix B Production Oil production in the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, and Appalachia all expe- rienced negative production growth over the last year, 10.3%, 24.4%, 21.7%, and 6.1% respectively. Natural gas production in the Appa- lachia has increased 3.4% over the last year. Growth in the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken have decreased 1.0%, 20.1%, and 12.3%, respectively. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 M ar-16 Sep-16 M ar-17 Sep-17 M ar-18 Sep-18 M ar-19 Sep-19 M ar-20 Sep-20 M ar-21 mmbbl/d Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Source: EIA Source: EIA 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 M ar-16 Sep-16 M ar-17 Sep-17 M ar-18 Sep-18 M ar-19 Sep-19 M ar-20 Sep-20 M ar-21 mmcf/d Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Source: EIA Daily Production of Crude Oil Daily Production of Natural Gas
  • 18. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 16 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy Appendix B Rig Count Rig Count by Region Baker Hughes collects and publishes information regarding active drilling rigs in the United States and internationally. The number of active rigs is a key indicator of demand for oilfield services & equipment. Factors influencing rig counts include energy prices, investment climate, technological changes, regulatory activity, weather, and seasonality. The number of active rigs in the United States as of March 31, 2021 stood at 416, a 19.9% increase from December 31, 2020, and a 42.7% decrease from March 2020. The rig count in the Eagle Ford decreased from 63 to 31 rigs over the last year as E&P operators are cutting rigs in light of recent issues. However, rig count in the Eagle Ford has increased from 26 to 31 in the last quarter. 1 Calculations based on monthly crude oil and gas production and EIA drilling report by region. 0 300 600 900 1,200 M a r - 1 6 S e p - 1 6 M a r - 1 7 S e p - 1 7 M a r - 1 8 S e p - 1 8 M a r - 1 9 S e p - 1 9 M a r - 2 0 S e p - 2 0 M a r - 2 1 Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Appalachia Other Source: Baker Hughes
  • 19. © 2021 Mercer Capital // Business Valuation & Financial Advisory Services // www.mercercapital.com 17 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: E&P Industry // First Quarter 2021 @MercerEnergy U.S. Rig Count by Oil vs. Natural Gas Appendix B Rig Count U.S. Rig Count by Trajectory 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 M a r - 1 6 S e p - 1 6 M a r - 1 7 S e p - 1 7 M a r - 1 8 S e p - 1 8 M a r - 1 9 S e p - 1 9 M a r - 2 0 S e p - 2 0 M a r - 2 1 Oil Gas Source: Baker Hughes 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 M a r - 1 6 S e p - 1 6 M a r - 1 7 S e p - 1 7 M a r - 1 8 S e p - 1 8 M a r - 1 9 S e p - 1 9 M a r - 2 0 S e p - 2 0 M a r - 2 1 Directional Horizontal Vertical Source: Baker Hughes