HYVE autonomous driving report

HYVE autonomous driving report
Autonomous Driving The User Perspective Application of Innovation Mining on the Topic of Self Driving Cars October 2015 – © HYVE Science Labs
2Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective PREFACE Dr. Michael Bartl HYVE Science Labs (CEO HYVE) Juan Rosenzweig HYVE Science Labs HYVE Science Labs Institute of Innovation Marketing Scientific Partner Technology Partner Autonomous Driving has been said to be the next big disruptive innovation in the years to come. Although considered as being predominantly technology driven, it is supposed to have massive societal impact beyond the automotive industry in fields such as mobility, transportation, insurance, logistics, law and regulations. Additionally to the enormous environmental and economic effect it has the promise of saving millions of lives worldwide. The HYVE Science Labs in cooperation with the Technical University Hamburg- Harburg (Institute of Innovation Marketing) and INSIUS focused on exploring the customer view and acceptance of Autonomous Driving. Therefore we analyzed Social Media Content in a unique international study. Overall 106.305 posts in English language were collected and filtered through the search for key strings and popular terms referring to Autonomous Driving. Enjoy reading the study!
3Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective 1 Introduction 2 The Method of Innovation Mining 3 Results 4 Contact TABLE OF CONTENT
4Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective 1 INTRODUCTION
5Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective INTRODUCTION Right now Autonomous Driving (AD) is positioned at the peak of the Hype Cycle (see figure p.6). It is noteworthy that there is a huge gap between technological progress and end consumer acceptance which makes self-driving cars a showcase for a technology push innovation. While scientific research is focusing on the topic from an engineering and ICT perspective the research community agrees that customer acceptance will be the main driver of this new technology. For this reason, it is important to understand what are the wants and needs of future users and who will be the early adopters. They will influence how technologies evolve and if they provide enough benefits to reach the early majority. In order to understand the customer voice, this study analyses 106.305 posts generated by users throughout the internet deno- minated as User Generated Content (UGC). Making it the biggest study of its kind worldwide on Autonomous Driving . UGC is characterized by extensive volunteering effort, lack of central control and freedom of expression, while creating a ba- sis for identifying and understanding opinions, desires, tastes, needs and decision-making influences of customers in a passi- ve non-intrusive manner. UGC is perceived as being impartial and unbiased, while giving the chance to understand needs and doubts of the potential customers, as well as the used language within a certain topic. THIS STUDY COMPRISES 106.305 POSTS ON AD THROUGHOUT THE INTERNET
6Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective AUTONOMOUS DRIVING HYPE CYCLE AUTONOMOUS DRIVING ADOPTION CURVE THE INNOVATION PATH OF AUTONOMOUS DRIVING NumberofAdopters Visibility&Expectations Technology Trigger (more than 10 years) Source: Adapted figure based on Gartner‘s Hype Cycle (Gartner, August 2015) and Rogers Diffusion Curve. Enthusiasm (5-10 years) Disillusion (2-5 years) Stable & Evolving (less than 2 years) 2,5% 13,5% 16% t 34% 34% Early Adopters (visionaries) Early Majority (pragmatists) Late Majority (conservatives) Laggards (sceptics) Innovators INTERNET OF THINGS 3D PRINTING BIG DATA AUGMENTED REALITY THE „CHASM“ CLOUD COMPUTING AUTONOMOUS DRIVING TODAY
7Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective 2 THE METHOD OF INNOVATION MINING
8Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective THE METHOD OF INNOVATION MINING In innovation mining technology names, raw materials, physical and chemical attributes, cause & and effect chains etc. are the point of origin for the search strategy. For AD the search process was initiated by using terms such as: ”autonomous vehicle“; ”autonomous vehicles“; ”self driving car“; ”self driving cars“; ”driverless car“; ”driverless cars“; ”autonomous driving“; ”automated driving“; ”piloted driving“... The terms were refined along the search process. The Data Gathering process is based on the INSIUS data gathering technology, which led to 471.000 text results (May 2015). The Data Analysis includes the removal of edi- torial content published by editors of news, ad- vertisement, etc. Machine learning techniques were applied to sort and select User Generated Content only. 106.305 results were classified as UGC with a Precision of 99,5% (also called positive predicted value), and a Recall of 91,5% (also known as sensitivity). SOCIAL MEDIA CONTENT SEARCH STRATEGY DATA ANALYSISDATA GATHERING VISUALISATION AND INTERPRETATION A variety of visualization techniques, such as Tag Clouds, Network Representations, Word Frequency Distributions, Pie Charts, Bar Charts, Line graphs, Data Series Plots, Bubble Charts, etc., are applied to understand and dive into the gathered data.
9Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective 3 RESULTS
10Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective HOW DO USERS REFER TO AUTONOMOUS DRIVING? One of the most important tools to analyze the 106.305 gathered results are phrase frequency distributions, which help to understand how often a word or a phrase is mentioned within the data. This proves helpful to recognize how the users refer to the topic and which concepts are more often used. Our research demonstrates that the most common term used by users is “Driverless Car” with 43,5% of the AD-related mentions followed by “Self Driving Car” with 34,4% of the mentions. The more formal “Autonomous Vehicle” is not that widespreadly used with 10.2% of the mentions followed by “Autonomous Driving” with 9.6% of the mentions. AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE 5.242 SELF DRIVING CAR 17.720 DRIVERLESS CAR 22.383 AUTONOMOUS DRIVING 4.944 PILOTED DRIVING 389 DRIVERLESS VEHICLE 798 N= 51.476
11Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective WHERE DO USERS TALK ABOUT AUTONOMOUS DRIVING? The vast majority of quotes are distributed in many diverse sources. A high volume of discussion regarding AD takes place in Reddit.com which is the most impactful single source on the topic with around 10% of the total discussion. Ten times more customer quotes than the second place UGC source quora.com with nearly 1%, followed by arstechnica.com, with similar impact in the topic as ask.fm. Reddit is a leading Social-News-Aggregator in the internet. Arstechnica is a technology, news and information website that publishes news, reviews, and guides where the writers are mainly postgraduates and research institu- tions workers. Both belong to the Advance Publications Media Group. They are both considered as technology focused media where early adopters and most knowledge- able users of technology can be found while also being regarded as top technology discussion sites. Quora on the other hand is a Question-and-answer website where questions are asked, answered, edited and organized by its community of users. Recently valued with nearly 1 billion dollars, it is among the top 200 websites globally. MISCELLANEOUS 83,5% 0,75 TECH.SLASHDOT.ORG 0,57 CITY-DATA.COM 0,98 QUORA.COM 0,57 LINKEDIN.COM 0,76 NEWS.YCOMBINATOR.COM 0,94 ARSTECHNICA.COM 0,93 ASK.FM REDDIT.COM 9,5%
12Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective HOW THE CONSUMER CONVERSATION EVOLVED OVER TIME? Analyzing internet sources since 2010, after the official Google driverless-car debut, an exponential increase in the volume of discussion can be observed, doubling the amount of comments found every year. In a more detailed monthly view, two peaks, the first in May 2014 and the second in March 2015, can be found. Relating this high UGC volume to the main sources, the most impactful singles dicussions can be identified. The highest volume in customer discussion can be observed in March 2015 with 6.489 posts (see figure p.13). Triggered partly by the news of Elon Musk´s the CEO of Tesla Motors comment, stating that non self-driving cars would someday be outlawed. Also in this month the most impactful discussion found is when Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault and Nissan opens a forum of open questions regarding the topic and promotes it through Twitter. The second month with the highest volume of discussion is May 2014 with 4974 posts when Google revealed its prototype Google Car for the first time. Another impactful discussion in that month includes an article from a reporter that “took a ride in Google‘s self-driving car” and was debated in Reddit. THE VOLUME OF THE AUTONOMOUS DRIVING DISCUSSION DOUBLES EVERY YEAR SINCE 2010 x2 mentions 2010 2015
13Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective HOW THE CONSUMER CONVERSATION EVOLVED OVER TIME? 1.82 2.76 1.88 2.17 GROWTH FACTOR ELON MUSK BELIEVES NON-SELF-DRIVING CARS MAY ONE DAY BE OUTLAWED IS IT SAFER FOR A „TWO-TON DEATH MACHINE“ TO BE DRIVEN BY A COMPUTER OR A HUMAN? by Sebastian Anthony, Mar 18, 2015 mentions 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 JAN JAN 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JANAPR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APRJUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JULOCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT GOOGLE’S PROTOTYPE ELECTRIC SELF-DRIVING CAR SEATS TWO, HAS NO STEERING WHEEL NO ACCELERATOR OR BRAKE PEDALS, EITHER; SELF-DRIVING IS FULLY REALIZED. by Casey Johnston, May 28, 2014 2007 6489 POSTS 4974 POSTS REDDIT I‘M THE CEO OF RENAULT AND NISSAN AND WE‘RE MAKING AUTONOMOUS DRIVING VEHICLES HAPPEN BY 2020. ASK ME ANYTHING! by CarlosGhosn, 7 months ago REDDIT I TOOK A RIDE IN GOOGLE‘S SELF-DRIVING CAR – AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES ARE READY FOR THE CITY. by RushandAPush, 1 year ago
14Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective WHAT ARE THE MAJOR BRANDS PEOPLE TALK ABOUT IN THE CONTEXT OF AUTONOMOUS DRIVING? 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 mentions Data clearly reflects the intense efforts of Google to be the first to offer the technology and be successful at communicating their advancements to the public, as well as positioning them- selves as the key technological driver from the customer’s perspective. Furthermore, it is important to notice that Apple, despite of not having officially made any announcements regarding AD and being supported only by rumors, comes in second place. This makes the two biggest digital players the leading brands in the AD discussion. With Tesla a third player out of the Silicon Valley, is positioned in the Top 5 followed by the majority of the traditi- onal automotive players of which only Mercedes and Audi are positioned in the top ranks. GOOGLE IS MENTIONED MORE THAN ALL THE OTHER BRANDS TOGETHER 33561 4476 4355 4294 3651 3428 2350 1889 1419 759 240 170 1937 1
15Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective HOW PEOPLE TALK ABOUT AUTONOMOUS DRIVING? “Concepts” are defined as nouns which carry a polarization, being either positive, negative or neutral, depending on the adjectives or adverbs (sentiment carriers) with which they are mentioned in a sentence. The most mentioned “concepts” within the concept map (p.16) are positioned nearer to the center while the importance decreases towards the outside. The number in the circles represent the recurrence of each concept in percentage. The polarization of the “concepts” is reflected through colors. Yellow are neutral, red are negative and green are positive concepts. Therefore it can be observed that the most important concepts in the AD field are discussed with a neutral position and are without surprise “car”, which is mentioned in 76% or of the comments, followed by “vehicle” in 20% of the comments and “technology” in 10% of the comments. An interesting fact to state is that positive internet discussions occur twice as much as negative ones. This is in contrast to many of the traditionally conducted and survey-based market research studies, which show a much more sceptical picture of consumer attitudes towards AD. This may be explained by the fact that UGC is contributed by (lead) users who generally like to deal with innovative and advanced topics. They face needs and requirements months or even years before the bulk of the marketplace encounters them. THERE ARE TWICE AS MANY POSITIVE CONCEPTS THAN NEGATIVE ONES + −
16Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective innovation driving thing people driver problem car issues error work control driver idea vehicle time benefit2life system way technology cruise control driving people sensor day automaker step cost place job tech computer parking device product service camera month decade lane challenge information development version Google safety impact week project numbermarket speed part seat traffic business transit transit1 control question future3 model2 world3 driver time year road7 company4 driving7 way technology systems thing people vehicle hand space auto1 research1 robot2 level2 accident2 light industry feature use change life state reason amount area transportation thing control AUTONOMOUS DRIVING 75 neutral 17 positive 8 negative WHAT ARE THE MOST MENTIONED CONCEPTS IN USER DISCUSSIONS? 2 2 2 2 1 23 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 highway transport 1 1 datum2 22 2 1 1 1 22 2 2 2 2 3 5 city2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 5 9 9 7 20 car76 10 9 9 42 4 2 3 2 2 2 car7 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 1 the number in the circle represent the % of mentions. n LEGEND OF CONCEPT MAP: Nouns = Concepts positive neutral negative
17Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective fully autonomous safe modern classic intelligent capable best better other fully autonomous automotive new connectedautonomous automated electric driverless self-driving less expensive average inevitable controlledfatal bad disruptive sometimes unproven perfect (neg.) slowcomplex dangerous stolenparticular ready (neg.) fully autonomous (neg.) commonplace ready (neg.) radicalunproven WHAT ARE THE MOST MENTIONED DRIVERS IN USER DISCUSSIONS? These drivers act as indicators of readiness of the technology from the user perspective. Within the top positive concepts the main drivers that make this concept positive are “fully autonomous”, “smart”, “safe” “modern”, etc. On the other side the appearance of the driver “expensive” among top negative concepts reflects the current user perspective of the still high prices of the technology. The main other negative drivers are “less”, “average”, “inevitable”, and “dangerous”, etc. The driver “electric” appears highly ranked in the top concepts signalizing the continuous mentioning of electric gears in the AD context. CAR – VEHICLE – TECHNOLOGY Adjectives or Adverbs = Drivers ownintelligentleadadvanced late ready autonomous smart future completely present
18Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective TOP 5 POSITIVE TOP 5 NEGATIVE TOP POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE CONCEPTS WITH THEIR DRIVERS CAR6,7 FULLY AUTONOMOUS SMART SAFE MODERN CLASSIC CAR 2,5 LESS EXPENSIVE AVERAGE INEVITABLE DANGEROUS ISSUE 2,2 LEGAL MAJOR REGULATORY MAIN TECHNICAL VEHICLE3,2 FULLY AUTONOMOUS OWN SAFE INTELLIGENT LEAD ERROR 2,2 HUMAN RESPONSIBLE LESS SMALL SUCH DRIVER 2,2 DRUNK BAD TERRIBLE BLIND AGGRESSIVE + + – - + - + - + - WAY3,1 BEST DIFFERENT BETTER EASY GOOD + - PROBLEM 3,5 BIG REAL OTHER MAJOR POTENTIAL THING3,7 GOOD GREAT BEST INTERESTING RIGHT TECHNOLOGY3,6 AUTONOMOUS ADVANCED FUTURE LATE READY TOP 5 POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE CONCEPTS AND DRIVERS the number in the circle represent the % of mentions. n LEGEND OF CONCEPT MAP: Nouns = Concepts Adjectives or Adverbs = Drivers positive neutral negative
19Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective WHAT WOULD USERS DO WITH THEIR NEW FREE-TIME? The most frequently mentioned activities by users reveal the word “Internet” which is mentioned approximately 7.000 times. The concepts “TV” and “Movie” reflect another main category of activities the users discuss. The extensive chat regarding blind people driving cars can be directly related to Google’s successful campaign showing a blind man taking a ride to a Taco Bell in a self-driving car. Surprising is the high discussion volume on the wish of enjoying a glass of beer or wine (“Enjoying Drinks”) and enabling elderly people to win back some of their lost freedoms of movement. Hence, the automated mobility seems to become an important catalyst of future social interaction. The category of sleeping and eating complete the more than 20.000 mentions on possible activities in a self-driving car. THE AVERAGE US DRIVER SPENDS AROUND 465 HOURS PER YEAR DRIVING A CAR Source: MIT Technology Review, March 2014
20Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 mentions Internet/ Email Enjoying DrinksMovie/ TV Blind Sleep Elderly Mobility Eat 0 4056 2543 2276 1602 1150 934 8315 WHAT WOULD USERS DO WITH THEIR NEW FREE-TIME?
21Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective USER QUOTES – SOME EXAMPLES “If given a choice between spending 30k on a slow driverless car, preferably with a hybrid engine, and a fast car that requires a driver, I would buy the slow driverless car as an ONLY vehicle and rent a fast vehicle when I need to go more than 30 miles.This would not be practical for families that need to routinely drive more than 30 miles to their destinations.The benefits of driverless cars to smaller families in major metro areas is remarkable as long as you are willing to wait a bit. Imagine a scenario with a working couple and an elementary school child.” “Proponents of driverless cars say these vehicles will prevent most automobile accidents, as almost all motor vehicle crashes are caused by human error and are thus almost always preventable. Driverless cars will also open up entire new worlds to people who are blind or who suffer serious physical disabilities that impair their ability to get around.” “I recently heard that Elon Musk said that he changed the conversation a bit when he was talking to people. At first, he’d mention self- driving cars, and people would respond a bit negatively. It was when he started talking about putting autopilot into cars that people started to think it was not only a good idea, but a really cool idea.The idea of a car driving itself tends to be a scary notion, but the idea of a car with autopilot on is intriguing and awesome.” “And yet, nobody in their right mind would buy an autonomous car that explicitly warns the customer that his or her safety is not its first priority.”“My mother had what could easily be her last car; it is in good shape and could easily last another decade. Yet she would buy a brand new au-tonomous car in a heartbeat; or she would instantly start using a autonomous car service if it worked well.”
22Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective “In these cases, the parents, grandparents or siblings have to act as “taxi driver” for the minors.This huge driving service could be taken over by autonomous vehicles. By using a self-driving car, the parent taking care of the children would save a lot of time which he could use for his own job or simply for his free time. The benefits for the community are obvious.” “That‘s because consumers aren‘t the only target market for this technology at least in terms of ownership. In the end, it doesn‘t matter whether or not you would buy an autonomous vehicle — it just matters if you would pay to ride in one.” “Yet in most countries, self-driving cars are strictly confined to private roads. So what’s the problem? The biggest barrier is not the technology – it’s the legal issues. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Few of us want poorly designed or malfunctioning cars swerving all over our roads. So it makes sense for governments to err on the side of caution.” “Owning Apple has been good to me. I do not think Google will ever make significant amounts of money from anything but advertising.They were a company built on one profitable idea that has allowed them to play around in a thousand areas.That being said, I would buy a driver-less car as soon as they‘re available. I just don‘t have any faith in Google to be the company that gets it to work well.” “I have predicted that the commercial transportation industry will be the first to widely adopt this technology because the economic benefits are so enormous. There is a huge qualified truck driver shortage, and the trucking industrycanforeseeadaywhentherewillbenocatastrophic truck accidents caused by driver error, or hours of service rules that limit how long these trucks will be on the road.” USER QUOTES – SOME EXAMPLES
23Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective 3 CONTACT
24Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective CONTACT Stefanie Mark Marketing & PR HYVE T: +49 (0) 89 / 189.081 - 440 E: Stefanie.Mark@hyve.net HYVE Science Labs connect the academic, consumer and business world to join forces in open value creation. Our goal is to intertwine academic research and practical work in the business world. In our experience, a stronger connection between the two worlds can unlock extraordinary results and performances. Thus, we want to foster bidirectional exchanges to supercharge the effects of academic research and business. HYVE –The Innovation Company The HYVE Group offers an integrated approach to innovation, combining competencies in the areas of market research, engineering, industrial design, product development and soft- ware solutions for online communities and idea management under one roof. © 2015 HYVE AG. All rights reserved. HYVE AG Schellingstraße 45 80799 München Germany T: +49 (0) 89 / 189.081 - 100 E: info@hyve.de www.hyve.net www.hyvecommunity.net www.hyvedesign.net www.hyveresearch.net
25Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective

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