Peter Garforth, Principle of Garforth International LLC, gave this presentation titled: The Power of Energy Efficiency: Creating Globally Competitive Communities at the Energy Efficiency and Local Economic Opportunity Summit on June 14th, Traverse City, Michigan
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Peter Garforth: The Power of Energy Efficiency - Creating Globally Competitive Communities - June 14, 2012
1. The Power of Energy Efficiency
Creating Globally Competitive Communities
Peter Garforth
Principal โ Garforth International llc
Energy Efficiency and Local Economic Opportunity
June 14th, Traverse City, Michigan
Insatiable Global Appetite for Energy
Forecast to double by 2030
Source: IIASA / BP / EIA / Eurostat
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2. Growing Energy Uncertainties
๏ Unpredictable energy prices
๏ Dependence on imports and supply security
๏ Impacts of climate change legislation
๏ Under-invested energy infrastructure
๏ China and India major new energy customers
๏ Blackouts, weather events, water shortages..
๏ Regulation of shale gas and oil
๏ Nuclear moratorium? โEnergy price impacts?
๏ Energy innovation? โ Competitive advantage?
Managing Risk and Opportunity
Population GDP / Energy Growth
Redefining our World!
Non-OECD Countries driving energy demand
Source BP 2011 Statistical Review of World Energy
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3. Extreme Weather Events
๏ More frequent extremes
๏ Asian Floods
๏ Russian heat storm
๏ EU Deep Freeze
๏ US floods, tornados, droughts
๏ Heat storms / floods
๏ Impacts of rising temperatures
๏ Sea rise 8" to 12" in last 50 years
๏ Changing crop yields
๏ Arctic opening up for exploration
๏ Higher intensity hurricanes
๏ Energy use a suspected contributor
๏ How will this impact energy costs?
Climate Change Making Headlines again in USA
Energy Cost and Reliability
Risks Increasing
US Transmission Grid Disturbances Insurance Claims
๏ Weather events increasing ๏ 2011 may be costliest on record
๏ Average 180,000 people /event affected ๏ 2008..09..10 costliest three years
๏ Unforced events also at historic highs ๏ $30 Bn Private claims in these years
Importance of Local Strategies
Sources: UD DOE-EIA, US GAO
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4. Energy Productivity Differences
How well do we spend our $1.5 Trillion?
Energy Energy
Region Population GDP Energy
/Capita /GDP
USA 4.5% 23.0% 17.8% 100 100
Canada 0.5% 2.5% 2.1% 107 108
EU 7.4% 30.3% 13.0% 45 56
Japan 1.9% 7.8% 3.9% 53 65
China 19.7% 6.8% 16.1% 21 307
India 17.1% 2.0% 4.9% 7 319
World 100% 100% 100% 22 198
Key to National Competitiveness
*IEA and World Bank โ 2009 sources
Total US Energy Use ~ $1.5 Trillion
Most in Urban Environment
Coal
Homes Buildings
40.4%
Gas
Commercial
Domestic Oil
Industry
Uranium Industry 31.4%
Renewable
Transport
Transportation 28.1%
Imported Oil
Largest User is Buildings
Source: US DoE EIA - 2008
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5. US Electricity Supply Chain
Wasted
Conversion Energy
Coal
Losses 70%
Gas
Nuclear Sold
Renewable Electricity
30%
Largest Cause of Greenhouse Gas
Source: US DoE EIA 2007
Benchmark Efficiencies by Sector
USA / EU Energy Example
Sector Share Index USA/EU
Industry 32% 1.2 : 1
Homes & Buildings 40% 2.5 : 1
Transportation 29% 1.4 : 1
๏ Homes & Building efficiency opportunity by far the
largest
๏ Industrial efficiency potential often overestimated
High potential for productivity gains!
*Indicative ratio of US average to EU Average
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6. Dysfunctional Energy Supply Chain
From fuel to service
Uses 70% of all energy
25% 5%
๏ High-cost low returns
๏ High risk
๏ High emissions
Pay 100 for fuel - Get less than 10 in services
Why Communities Care
New Energy Realitiesโฆ
๏ Community Values and Image
๏ Investment and Green Jobs
๏ Unpredictable energy prices
๏ Supply quality and security
๏ Environmental legislation
๏ Weather events
๏ Nuclear and coal uncertaintiesโฆ
Fundamentally Different From Past
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7. Successful Community Energy Planning
Three Groups of Balanced Benefits
Competitiveness Security
Environment
Breakthroughs are Achievable
Wide Range of Energy Performance
Emissions per Resident
USA - Total
USA - "Municipal"
EU - Total
EU - "Municipal"
Holland. MI
Loudoun, VA
Arlington, VA
Guelph, Ontario
Mannheim, Germany
Copenhagen, Denmark
mt CO2 / capita
0 10 20 30
Communities Embracing Challenge
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8. Setting Breakthrough Goals
Reduction Targets per Resident
USA - Total
USA - "Municipal"
EU - Total
EU - "Municipal"
Holland. MI
Loudoun, VA
Arlington, VA
Guelph, Ontario
Mannheim, Germany
Copenhagen, Denmark
mt CO2 / capita
0 10 20 30
We know how to get there!
Global and Local Benchmarks
Example of Copenhagen
๏ Triggered by 70โs energy crisis
๏ 3.0 tons / capita GHG
๏ Efficiency
๏ World leading building efficiency
๏ Energy Performance Validation
๏ District Energy
๏ Widespread across city
๏ Fuel flexibility
๏ Multi-fuel cogeneration
๏ Coal, oil, gas, biofuel, waste-to-energy
๏ Wind and solar generation
๏ Transport
๏ Urban design for bike/walking
๏ Efficient trams/trains
๏ City-wide EV plans
๏ High Value Employment
2009 โ Voted โSecond Most Livable Cityโ
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9. City of Holland Energy Use
$135 M Annual Cost of Energy
Primary Energy / Fuel 2010
9,898,000 MMBtue / 2,900,000 MWhe
by type by sector
Major Building Efficiency Opportunity
City of Holland Emissions
24 mt per Resident
2010 Energy Related Emissions
792,500 metric tons / 873,600 short tons CO2e
by type by sector
Major Fuel Efficiency Opportunity
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10. Holland Community Energy Plan
2011 to 2050 Goals
Energy Mission
Enhance City attractiveness to investors, businesses and residents
through cost effective, reliable clean energy supply
๏ Lower cost energy than neighbouring communities
๏ Highly reliable electricity supply from local sources
๏ Industrial Energy Service tailored to investorsโ needs
๏ Flexibility to meet changing technologies, legislation,
fuel costs and other market conditions
๏ Meet commitment to the U.S. Conference of Mayors
Climate Protection Agreement
๏ Be a leader in developing regional energy
productivity strategy
Comprehensive Plan with Year on Year Targets
Efficiency always comes First!
Loading Order / Trias Energetica
1. Energy efficiency - If you donโt need it donโt use it
2. Heat Recovery โ It itโs already there โ use it
3. Renewable energy โ If it makes sense, go carbon free
4. Energy distribution โ Invest where it makes sense
Integrated Approach โ Tailored for Community
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11. Home & Building Efficiency in Nutshell
๏ Benefits
๏ Energy not used is always the cheapest
๏ Energy not used is always the cleanest
๏ Major reduction of energy costs
๏ Economically viable efficiencies of 30% to 60%
๏ Create good local jobs
๏ Sets the stage for deeper community wide energy
efficiencies
๏ Challenges
๏ Rapidly achieving large enough scale
๏ Readily available and affordable financing
๏ Lifetime Performance validation
Energy Performance Labeling
Homes and Buildings
๏ Low-cost performance
validation tool
๏ Available when sold or
rented
๏ Display in public buildings
๏ Independent certification
๏ Discount financing
๏ Voluntary approaches work
fine!
Basis for Market Driven Improvement
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12. Impact of Efficiency
Example from Arlington County
Base Case
Crucial First Step
High Quality Employment
Clean Economy- Ohio
๏ Clean Jobs
๏ 105,306
๏ 6th in USA
๏ Growth since 2003
๏ 16,793 jobs / 2.5% per
year
๏ 12th / 38th in USA
๏ Share of Total Jobs
๏ 2.0%
๏ 27th in USA
๏ Median Wage
๏ $39,275
๏ 10% higher than average
Quality Jobs with Modest Education
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13. High Quality Employment
Clean Economy- Michigan
๏ Clean Jobs
๏ 76,941
๏ 12th in USA
๏ Growth since 2003
๏ -1,596 jobs / -0.3% per
year
๏ Last / Last in USA
๏ Share of Total Jobs
๏ 1.9%
๏ 27th in USA
๏ Median Wage
๏ $40,558
๏ 7% higher than average
New Opportunity?
Four years down the Roadโฆ.
From City of Guelph , Ontario
๏ Passed Energy Plan in 2007 by unanimous council vote
๏ National Role Model
๏ Over 2,000 Green jobs
๏ City major influence on regional and national policy
Guelph boasts lowest jobless rate in country
Thursday, September, 15, 2011 - 10:10:02 AM
It may not be an all-time low, but Guelphโs unemployment rate
for August came close at 4.7 per cent โ the lowest in the country.
โโฆInitiatives such as Guelphโs Community Energy Initiative
contribute to the long-term prosperity of the city and make it more
appealing to business investment โฆโ
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14. A Little City with Big Dreams
Vรคxjรถ, Sweden
๏ Population: 60,800
๏ Mixed Urban / Rural
๏ Efficiency targets from1980โs
๏ Fossil-free target set in 1996
๏ 50% achieved
๏ Integrated Approach
๏ Efficient Homes and Buildings
๏ Community engagement
๏ Flexible District Heating
๏ Cogeneration
๏ Biomass fuel focus
๏ Global-EU-National role model
๏ Tourism and Investment
๏ Global Media and Policy focus
Voted Greenest City In Europe in 2007
Vรคxjรถ Energy Emissions
Results to date
Current Focus - Transport
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15. Grand Traverse County
North American Role Model?
๏ Mixed Urban / Rural
๏ Mixed High and Low-Densities
๏ Pursue breakthrough energy concepts
๏ North American role model for smaller
mixed urban/rural communities
๏ Potential for Integrated Approaches
๏ Efficient Homes and Buildings
๏ Community engagement
๏ District Energy
๏ Clean and Renewable supplies
๏ Low-impact Transport
๏ Tourism and Investment
๏ Local value-added and jobs
๏ Magnet for policy focus and support
Could GTC have a Big Energy Goal?
Thank You
Peter Garforth
Garforth International llc
peter@garforthint.com
+1 (419) 578 9613 - Office
+1 (419) 320 0664 - Mobile
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