Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of
ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures and analyst
certifications are present in the Appendix.
Anand Rathi Research India Equities
Media
Company Update
India I Equities
Mohit Jain
Research Analyst
+9122 6626 6531
mohitjain@rathi.com
Shobit Singhal
Research Associate
+9122 6626 6511
shobitsinghal@rathi.com
Key financials (YE Mar) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e
Sales (` m) 48,837 58,514 64,341 67,863 75,368
Net profit (` m) 9,775 10,598 9,970 13,388 15,104
EPS (`) 8.7 9.2 10.4 13.9 15.7
Growth (%) -5.7 5.8 13.2 34.3 12.8
PE (x) 62.3 58.9 52.0 38.7 34.3
PBV (x) 9.3 8.3 6.1 5.6 5.1
RoE (%) 19.0 18.0 13.5 15.0 15.5
RoCE (%) 27.7 27.8 24.8 24.7 24.6
Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8
Net debt / equity (x) -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
`
Rating: Hold
Target Price: `560
Share Price: `540
Key data Z IN / ZEE.BO
52-week high / low `590/ `428
Sensex / Nifty 32228 / 9965
3-m average volume $17m
Market cap `517bn/$8036.4m
Shares outstanding 960m
Shareholding pattern (%) June'17 Mar'17 Dec'16
Promoters 43.1 43.1 43.1
- of which, Pledged - - -
Free float 56.9 56.9 56.9
- Foreign institutions 44.7 46.4 46.6
- Domestic institutions 5.6 4.4 4.2
- Public 6.7 6.2 6.1
Change in Estimates Target Reco
25 July 2017
Zee Entertainment
Revenue growth deferred to H2; maintaining a Hold
Adjusted for the sale of its sports business and acquisition of two
channels of “RBNL” (~`200m contribution in Q1), Zee’s Q1 revenue
growth, at ~7% yoy, was in line with our expectation. (Unadjusted for
the above, it reported a 2% decline.) The GST implementation in June
led to a slowdown; recovery is now expected in H2. The positive was a
31.4% EBITDA margin in Q1 on lack of sports-related costs, with the
more-than-30%-margin outlook being retained. We maintain our Hold
rating, with a target of `560, valuing Zee at 21x FY19e EV:EBITDA.
Advertising growth deferred to H2. Zee’s reported domestic revenue grew
1% y/y to `13.46bn (adjusted, growth was ~9% y/y). International revenue
declined 19% y/y to `1.95bn due to regulatory issues in Bangladesh and
currency movements. The EBITDA margin (31.4%, up 262bps y/y) was
commendable despite weak revenue growth. Net income at `2.51bn, up
15.9% y/y, was lower than expected due to higher taxes (effective tax rate:
48%) on `3.33bn taxable dividend from a subsidiary.
Continuing higher content ratings are key. Flagship Zee TV and &TV
have a combined 22.7% market share (up 170bps q/q) in Hindi general
entertainment channels. In the regional portfolio, Zee has maintained its
leading position in three languages (Marathi, Bhojpuri, Odiya) and is in the
top-2 in three (Bangla, Telugu, Kannada). Zee intends to increase
programming hours on its flagship channel (Zee) and &TV; this should help
it increase viewership further.
Retaining our Hold recommendation; estimate changes reflect slower
revenue growth. We are keeping our EBIT estimates unchanged for
FY18/19 as revenue weakness is offset through higher margins. However,
lower other income (partly due to cash invested in new businesses and digital)
and a higher tax rate lead us reduce our EPS estimates~6%. We value Zee at
21x FY19e EV:EBITDA due to its leading and superior margins. Risk: Any
slippage in content ratings.
Relative price performance
Source: Bloomberg
Zee
Sensex
400
450
500
550
600
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Estimates revision (%) FY18e FY19e
Revenues -4.8 -4.3
EBITDA -0.6 -2.9
Net Profit -7.5 -6.6
25 July 2017 Zee Entertainment – Revenue growth deferred to H2; maintaining a Hold
Anand Rathi Research 3
Result Highlights
Q1 FY18 results at a glance
Fig 8 – Quarterly result
Year-end: Mar Q1 FY18 % q/q % y/y *FY17 FY16 % y/y
Sales (` m) 15,403 0.8 (2.0) 64,341 58,515 10.0
EBITDA (` m) 4,844 3.3 6.9 19,269 15,094 27.6
EBITDA margin (%) 31 77 bps 261 bps 29.9 25.8 415 bps
EBIT (` m) 4,533 3.7 5.9 18,116 14,256 27.1
EBIT margin (%) 29 82 bps 219 bps 28.2 24.4 379 bps
PBT (` m) 4,864 13.9 27.8 16,780 15,818 6.1
Tax (` m) (2,344) 60.1 44.2 (6,805) (5,528) 23.1
Tax rate (%) (48) -1390 bps -549 bps (40.6) (35.0) -560 bps
Net Income (` m) 2,514 (13.9) 15.9 9,983 10,268 (2.8)
* Note: FY17 figures do not include an exceptional gain of `12.23bn on the sale of the sports business for comparable analysis
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
Fig 7 – Segment-wise results
Q1 FY17 Q2 FY17 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17* Q1 QFY18 Q/Q % Y/Y %
Revenues (` m) 15,716 16,954 16,391 15,280 15,403 0.8 -2.0
Growth Y/Y % 17.3 22.4 2.8 -0.2 -2.0 -176 bps -1929 bps
Advertisement 9,120 9,592 9,555 8,469 9,665 14.1 6.0
Domestic 8,415 8,800 8,737 7,944 9,087 14.4 8.0
International 705 792 817 525 578 10.1 -18.0
Subscription 5,282 5,833 5,935 5,580 4,791 -14.1 -9.3
Domestic 4,179 4,675 4,818 4,554 3,791 -16.8 -9.3
International 1,103 1,158 1,117 1,026 1,000 -2.5 -9.3
Others 1,315 1,529 902 1,231 947 -23.1 -28.0
Programming & Operating cost (6,575) (7,688) (7,035) (6,527) (5,863) -10.2 -10.8
As % of revenues -42 -45 -43 -43 -38 465 bps 377 bps
Staff Cost (1,499) (1,533) (1,419) (1,593) (1,669) 4.8 11.3
As % of revenues -10 -9 -9 -10 -11 40 bps -130 bps
Selling & Other costs (3,110) (2,841) (2,780) (2,474) (3,027) 22.4 -2.7
As % of revenues -20 -17 -17 -16 -20 -346 bps 14 bps
EBITDA 4,532 4,892 5,158 4,687 4,844 3.3 6.9
EBITDA margin % 29 29 31 31 31 77 bps 261 bps
Depreciation (251) (336) (249) (316) (311) -1.7 23.8
EBIT 4,280 4,556 4,909 4,371 4,533 3.7 5.9
EBIT margin % 27 27 30 29 29 82 bps 219 bps
Other Income -398 -397 -189 1,020 479 -53.1 -220.2
Interest expense (75) (86) (90) (1,122) (147) -86.9 96.0
PBT 3,807 4,074 4,630 4,269 4,864 14.0 27.8
PBT margin % 24 24 28 28 32 364 bps 736 bps
Taxes (1,626) (1,634) (2,081) (1,464) (2,344) 60.1 44.2
ETR % -43 -40 -45 -34 -48 -1390 bps -549 bps
PAT 2,181 2,440 2,549 2,805 2,520 -10.1 15.5
PAT margin % 13.9 14.4 15.6 18.4 16.4 -199 bps 248 bps
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research * Note: Q4 FY17 figures do not include an exceptional gain of `12.23bn on the sale of the sports business for comparable analysis
25 July 2017 Zee Entertainment – Revenue growth deferred to H2; maintaining a Hold
Anand Rathi Research 4
Conference call highlights
Company-specific
At present, flagship channel Zee has 23 hours a week of original
programming content, which is likely to go up to 28 by Q3 FY18.
No pick-up can be seen in advertising and subscription revenues of
FTA channels currently.
The company is taking various steps to create business on the digital
side. It is doing an OTT-offering re-vamp in H2 FY18 and is in the
process of putting all digital-related businesses into one division. For
its traditional business, it is looking to enter southern markets such as
Kerala.
The low base will help the digital business to grow better than
television, and the company hopes it will not eat into the traditional
television market-share in the foreseeable future.
The GST is impacting the quarterly performance and will continue to
do so in Q2.
Bharat Kedia (from Parag Milk Foods) has been appointed CFO in
place of Mihir Modi, who will take up new roles in the company.
The company has acquired an 80% equity stake in Margo Networks, a
technology start-up for `750m. It acquired a 12.5% equity stake in a
technology start-up Tagos Design for `162m.
The company received dividend of `3.33bn from its subsidiary; hence,
its tax rate was higher this quarter (effective tax rate: ~48%). This will
be cash-flow neutral; for the full year, though, in the P&L A/c, the tax
rate will be `550m higher, besides the normal tax rate of ~35%.
Business outlook
Zee foresees subscription revenue growing in mid-teens in the next
three years due to ongoing digitisation, after which growth will be in
line with ARPU growth (price increases).
It will maintain a steady 30%+ margin, irrespective of whatever
investment it makes.
Maintenance capex of ~`1.2bn-1.5bn and additional capex of ~`0.5bn
to build a studio.
Notes from the last quarter’s conference calls
From Q4 FY17
Domestic advertising revenue. The de-monetization impact is now
behind us and advertising revenue is returning to pre-demonetization
levels. In Q4 FY17, growth in the industry ad market was flat to
negative, whereas the company’s ad revenue grew 8% due to an
increase in viewership in the regional genre. In FY18, the television ad
market could grow in low double-digits.
EBITDA margin guidance. The company will maintain a steady
30%+ margin, irrespective of whatever investment it makes.
25 July 2017 Zee Entertainment – Revenue growth deferred to H2; maintaining a Hold
Anand Rathi Research 6
Valuations
Zee is uniquely positioned in the media sector due to its leadership in the
various sub-segments – specifically regional content. It also gets a scarcity
premium as the other two competitors are unavailable for investors in the
secondary market.
We believe that the media eco-system is evolving in favour of content
companies and, therefore, the ability to consistently procure and build
popular content would be even more valuable in the near future. Also,
advertising expenditure is expected to rise due to enhancements in the
economic environment. A part of these expectations is built into our
estimates for the next two years and part is reflected in our better-than-the
past target multiple. This, however, was delayed in FY17 due to the de-
monetization and overall slowdown in advertising expenditure toward the
second half of the year. The recovery in growth is likely to begin in H2,
with FY18 recovering only gradually. This is currently reflected in our
estimates for Zee.
At the CMP of `540, the stock trades at 20.2x FY19e EV:EBITDA. We
value Zee at 21x FY19e EV:EBITDA to arrive at a price target of `560,
offering 4% potential.
Fig 10 – Change in estimates
FY18 FY19
New Old Chg % New Old Chg %
Revenues (` m) 67,863 71,280 (4.8) 75,368 78,734 (4.3)
EBITDA (` m) 21,275 21,398 (0.6) 23,190 23,871 (2.9)
EBITDA margin % 31.3 30.0 133 bps 30.8 30.3 45 bps
EBIT (` m) 20,031 19,938 0.5 21,946 22,065 (0.5)
EBIT margin % 29.5 28.0 155 bps 29.1 28.0 109 bps
PBT (` m) 21,331 21,920 (2.7) 23,238 24,493 (5.1)
Net profit (` m) 13,388 14,467 (7.5) 15,104 16,165 (6.6)
Source: Anand Rathi Research
Fig 11 – EV/EBITDA
Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research
Risks
Any loss in content rating in the flagship/leadership genres.
15
18
21
24
27
Jul-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17
Jul-17
EVEBITDARatio(1yearforward)
Appendix
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this Research Report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the
compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research
analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts are bound by stringent internal regulations and also legal and statutory requirements of the Securities and Exchange
Board of India (hereinafter “SEBI”) and the analysts’ compensation are completely delinked from all the other companies and/or entities of Anand Rathi, and have
no bearing whatsoever on any recommendation that they have given in the Research Report.
Important Disclosures on subject companies
Rating and Target Price History (as of 25 July 2017)
Date Rating
TP
(`)
Share
Price (`)
1 28-Jul-16 Buy 540 465
2 01-Sep-16 Hold 580 540
3 12-May-17 Hold 570 525
Anand Rathi Ratings Definitions
Analysts’ ratings and the corresponding expected returns take into account our definitions of Large Caps (>US$1bn) and Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn) as described
in the Ratings Table below:
Ratings Guide (12 months)
Buy Hold Sell
Large Caps (>US$1bn) >15% 5-15% <5%
Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn) >25% 5-25% <5%
Research Disclaimer and Disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. (hereinafter refer as ARSSBL) (Research Entity) is a subsidiary of Anand Rathi Financial Services Ltd. ARSSBL is a
corporate trading and clearing member of Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd, National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSEIL), Multi Stock Exchange of India Ltd (MCX-
SX), United Stock Exchange and also depository participant with National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) and Central Depository Services Ltd. ARSSBL is
engaged in the business of Stock Broking, Depository Participant and Mutual Fund distributor.
The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of Anand Rathi research have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.
General Disclaimer: This Research Report (hereinafter called “Report”) is meant solely for use by the recipient and is not for circulation. This Report does not
constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The
recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of
purchase or sale of any security, derivatives or any other security through ARSSBL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment /trading opportunity on behalf
of the issuer(s) of the respective security (ies) referred to herein. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for
the readers.No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own
investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or
making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by
ARSSBL to be reliable. ARSSBL or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy,
completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information / opinions / views. While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and opinions given are
fair and reasonable, none of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of ARSSBL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental,
consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information / opinions / views contained in this Report.
The price and value of the investments referred to in this Report and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any
investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. ARSSBL does not provide tax advice to its clients, and all investors are strongly advised to
consult with their tax advisers regarding taxation aspects of any potential investment.
Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this Research only. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views
expressed in this Report. Research Report may differ between ARSSBL’s RAs and/ or ARSSBL’s associate companies on account of differences in research
methodology, personal judgment and difference in time horizons for which recommendations are made. User should keep this risk in mind and not hold ARSSBL,
its employees and associates responsible for any losses, damages of any type whatsoever.
Zee
3
1
2
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17