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Field planning slides
- 1. Field Planning Paid for by Democracy for America, www.democracyforamerica.com, and not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.
- 2. Your Blueprint for Victory Contains your campaign’s Goals, Strategies, Tactics, Timelines, and Benchmarks to achieve them. Person to person voter contact Delivers a campaign’s message to targeted voters Tactics: Canvass, phone calls, house parties, mail literature drops, etc. A strong Field Organization can help Requires a grassroots volunteer base you gain between 3-5% on election day. 2
- 3. Targeting Your Resources Why target? Limited People, Money & Time Gets the right message to the right voters 3 Ways to Target Voters Geographically Research Suggestions Voter History & Identification • Secretary of State Constituencies & Demographics • County Elections Board • Party Voter File • NCEC • US Census data 3
- 4. Targeting with Voter History Partisanship ID Voter Contact Priorities Strong Undecided Strong Supporter (2, 3, 4) Opponent A. Undecideds likely to Vote (1) (5) Voting History (ID, Persuasion) Always Vote (4x4) D A B. Supporters less likely to vote F Base Persuasion (ID, GOTV) Sometimes Vote C C. Undecideds less likely to vote (2x4) B Persuasion F (0x0) #2 (ID, Persuasion, GOTV) Never Vote D. Supporters likely to vote (0x4) E E F (Base building) 4
- 5. All Registered Voters Targeted Field Plan Target Universe of Voters Supporters (1’s) Undecided (2,3’s) Haters (4,5’s) Likely Supporters Persuasion Not ID’d (2,3,4’s) GOTV Universe No More Contact
- 6. What’s Your Win Number? Step 1: Project the turnout: Projected Turnout = % Turnout in last x similar election(s) Current number of registered voters Step 2: Set Your Goals Win Number = (Projected Turnout / 2) + 1 Vote Goal = Projected Turnout x .52 Step 3: Write them down! 5
- 7. Calculate Your Vote GoalsTurnout Turnout % Win Safe Current in last Estimate Number Margin Registration similar for current 50% + 1 52% election election Precinct # 1 740 32% 237 120 124 Precinct # 2 446 55% 246 124 128 Precinct # 3 463 51% 237 120 124 Precinct # 4 599 43% 258 130 135 Precinct # 5 686 42% 289 146 151 Precinct # 6 1002 48% 481 242 251 District 3936 44% 1748 882 913 Totals NOTE: Always round up for turnout estimates – even with “.1” You’ll always need a full person’s vote – a fraction of a person can’t vote. It’s safer to make it harder on yourself. 6
- 8. Democratic Performance Index ‘Percentage of the vote a Democratic candidate can expect in an average election’ Based on voting history NOT voter registration How to calculate D.P.I { } Democratic % in similar election # 1 + Democratic % in similar election # 2 / 3 = D.P.I. + Democratic % in similar election # 3 About NCEC 7
- 9. Calculate Your Dem & Persuasion Turnout Est. Vote Persuasion Persuadable D.P.I. % Dem. Difference % Voters Turnout Precinct # 1 69% 163 +39 12% 28 Precinct # 2 21% 51 -77 8% 19 Precinct # 3 36% 85 -39 33% 78 Precinct # 4 43% 110 -25 19% 49 Precinct # 5 38% 109 -42 39% 112 Precinct # 6 48% 230 -21 21% 101 District Totals 43% 748 -165 22% 382 NOTE: You’ll want to round down for Est. Dem turnout and persuadable voters. Again, you want to make it harder on yourself.
- 10. Calculate Your Final Vote Goals & Rankings Persuasion GOTV Final Vote Goals & ID Ranking Ranking Precinct # 1 198 5th 1st Precinct # 2 54 6th 6th Precinct # 3 3rd 5th 109 Precinct # 4 121 4th 3rd Precinct # 5 147 1st 4th Precinct # 6 284 2nd 2nd District 913 Totals
- 11. Prioritize Your Precincts DEM BASE PRECINCTS - D.P.I. = greater than 65% - Identification, voter registration, volunteer recruitment, GOTV REPUBLICAN BASE PRECINCTS - D.P.I. = less than 35% - Lowest priority, highly targeted contact only SWING PRECINCTS - D.P.I. = between 35% and 65% - Identification, Persuasion & GOTV 10
- 12. Targeting with Constituencies Look at your candidate and message Look at your identified supporters Meet with community leaders early Build bases of support Seek endorsements Target niche media 11
- 13. Conversations win Elections Phone Calls & Canvassing: Deliver a campaign’s message to Voter Preference Targeting targeted voters in a personable way Give the campaign valuable information about the voter’s preferences Allow for a targeted field campaign Yard signs belong in Yards, NOT street corners 12
- 14. Canvassing Know your turf Sample Canvass Packet • Scripts • Walksheets Prepare your canvass • Maps Packets • Campaign Lit • Candidate FAQ • Goodie bags (food, water, stickers, etc) Train your volunteers •Provide ‘context’ •Explain the Canvass Packet Materials •Review scripts, responses and coding •Role Plays! 13
- 15. Phonebanks Your most versatile voter contact tactic High number of contacts Two way communication Ideal for voter identification, persuasion, & GOTV Drawbacks: Lower impact than canvassing Increasingly difficult to reach voters 14
- 16. Direct Mail Highly targeted persuasion & GOTV tactic Once you start, you cannot go dark Stick with an interesting & repetitive message Know your production, shipping & delivery timelines Drawbacks: Lower impact than canvass, phones No info back from voters Expensive 15
- 17. Yard Signs and Visibility Shows supporters and donors your support base Reminds supporters of their support No more than 1% of budget spent on visibility Drawbacks: Signs don’t vote Often overemphasized at expense of more effective tactics 16
- 18. Timelines & Benchmarks Start from your goal (Election Day) and plan backwards - how do you get there? Identify Your Timeline and Strategies List your tactics & set benchmarks Revise and Update 14
- 19. Benchmarks & Metrics Identify Your Key Metrics # of voters contacted # of supporters identified # of early vote applications (if applicable) Identify Your Contact Metrics - % of attempts with contacts (50% standard) - # of calls/doors per hour (10-15 standard) - % of Supporters / Undecideds / Opposes (30% / 40% / 30% standard) Stick with numbers – Can you reach your goals? Your early warning system – Are you on track? 14
Notes de l'éditeur
- Introduction - Welcome, about me & DFA It’s great to see so many people, working on campaigns is awesome, what they will learn this weekend (?)
- We start by talking about ‘Field’. The Field aspect of a campaign is how you will identify likely and potential voters and deliver a targeted message to them. First you have to write your field plan. Your ‘Blueprint for Victory’. Your field plan needs to contain your Goals, Strategies and Tactics as well as a Timeline and benchmarks to measure your progress. We’ll be going over those 5 parts of your field plan this morning. Your Field plan is predicated on targeted conversations. Conversations win elections. Remember that. Yard signs, billboards, standing outside pollings places or train stations are not targeted conversations. We need to be knocking on doors, making phone calls, organizing house parties and increasingly, communicate online (which Adam and Stephanie will cover later) Finally your Field program requires you build a grassroots volunteer base to have those targeted conversations. Volunteers are the heart and soul of a campaign. A campaign without volunteers is therefore a campaign without a soul. - BTW a strong Field program can help you make up 3-5% on election day. Talk about Feingold experience. Sometimes Field is not enough on it’s own. Money and message matter as does the political environment.
- OK so we’re going to talk some people into voting for us. Where do we start? We can’t talk to everyone, there’s too many people. Also not everyone is even registered to vote. Some people are registered but haven’t voted in years. We have three resources on our campaigns. People, Time, and Money. We have to target which voters we try to contact so that we can maximize our limited resources. - Targeting our conversations also allows us to get the right message to the right voter. There are 3 ways to target voters. Geographically by precinct. We’ll talk about how to analyze precincts and find where we have lots of supporters, haters and swing voters. By their voter history and partisan ID. Whether someone votes or not is a public record. You can analyze voter patters to find people likely to vote in your election. Who someone votes for is of course not a public record. But through targeted conversations we can identify who are the supporters and who are the haters. Finally we target people based on who they are. Modern campaigns use a process called ‘Modeling’ to determine likely supporters based on their ethnicity, gender, where they live, whether they belong to a union or attend church, etc.