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Schedule Analysis
   Techniques
Walter Majerowicz, MBA, PMP
      ASRC Aerospace Corporation
    NASA Goddard Space Flight Center




       NASA PM Challenge 2010
          February 9-10, 2010
           Galveston, Texas




             Used with permission
Learning Outcomes
     • This presentation will examine how schedule analysis
     can help project teams understand:
            –When will the project finish?
            –Where is the risk in the schedule?
            –Do we have enough schedule slack and margin/reserve?
            –Is the schedule realistic, credible and achievable?
            –How are we performing and what is slipping?
            –What can past performance tell us about the future?
            –How will changes impact the schedule?
            –How are our contractors/suppliers performing?
            –Have any of our assumptions changed?
            –How can we get done sooner, recover from this delay or
            workaround this problem?



Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                 2
“When Will the Project Finish?”




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz               3
Critical Path Analysis
                          SCS Project Schedule – at baseline



                                                               Critical Path
                                                               at Baseline




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                     4
Critical Path Analysis
                         SCS Project Schedule as of 10/31/08



                                                               Subsystem
                                                               B Delayed




                                                                    Delivery
                                                                   threatened




                                                Negative
                                               Total Slack



Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                       5
What is Our Confidence in Finishing on Time?


      Monte Carlo                                0 - Total Project : Finish Date
                                                                                        100% 30 Aug 10
                                                                                        95% 09 Aug 10
                                                                                        90% 03 Aug 10
                                                                                        85% 30 Jul 10


      Schedule
                                                                                        80% 28 Jul 10




                                                                                                         Cumulative Frequency
                                               400                                      75% 27 Jul 10
                                                                                        70% 23 Jul 10
                                                                                        65% 22 Jul 10
                                                                                        60% 21 Jul 10
                                                                                        55% 20 Jul 10




                                        Hits
                                                                                        50% 19 Jul 10


      Risk                                     200
                                                                                        45% 16 Jul 10
                                                                                        40% 15 Jul 10
                                                                                        35% 14 Jul 10
                                                                                        30% 13 Jul 10
                                                                                        25% 12 Jul 10
                                                                                        20% 09 Jul 10
                                                                                        15% 07 Jul 10


      Analysis                                  0
                                                               25 Jul 10
                                                                                        10% 06 Jul 10
                                                                                        5% 02 Jul 10
                                                                                        0% 23 Jun 10


                                                     Distribution (start of interval)

      Demonstration

Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                                           6
“Where is the Risk in the Schedule?”




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz             7
Risky Business
     Task 1         A

                                           Which activity is least likely
     Task 1                                     to start on time?:
                    B                                A ____
     Task 2
                                                     B ____
                                                     C ____
     Task 1


     Task 2
                                                          Why?
                    C
     Task 3

                                           (Hint: Assume all dependencies are FS)
     Task 4



Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                               8
Riskier Business
 •    Consider two independent activities scheduled
      to finish on June 10th                                 Probability of
 •    Both activities are needed to fulfill the delivery   on-time finish = .90
      milestone on June 10th
 •    The probability of Activity A finishing on time is       Activity A
      .90, and the probability of Activity B is .80
 •    What is the probability of meeting the                (Finish June 10th)
      completion milestone on time?
       –   .90
       –   .80                                               Probability of
       –   .72                                             on-time finish = .80
       –   .85
       –   Cannot determine / insufficient data                                    Deliver
                                                               Activity B         June 10th
                                                            (Finish June 10th)




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                         9
Total Slack Trend With Thresholds
                           WBS 1.1.2.2 RTT B Assembly Risk Indicator
                35

                30                                                                                           Alert
                                                                                                            Zone 1
                25
                       Replace
                       cracked
  Total Slack




                20     DRX-002                             Test chamber
                                                          availability delay


                15
                                                                                                             Alert
                10                                                                                          Zone 2
                                                                                      Troubleshoot
                 5                                                                    noise anomaly



                 0
                                                                                                             Alert
                                                                                                            Zone 3
                -5
                     Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec   Jan   Feb   Mar      Apr          May   Jun     Jul      Aug
                     '04   '04   '04   '04   '05   '05   '05      '05          '05   '05     '05      '05
Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                                10
Activity Duration Sensitivity
                                GPM Schedule PDR Model
                                                   Duration Sensitivity



000145 - Propellant Tank: GPM PDR thru Build/Test & Del...                                       61%

                        0020 - Risk 53: Design for Demise                                  37%

      0040 - Risk SRB-2: Thermal Design Problems/Issues                              27%

           000064 - KaPR: PFM Fabrication and Assembly                         15%

                     000232 - Instr I&T - DPR Instr Integ (D)                  14%

000065 - KaPR: PFM Testing & Delivery to Ka/Ku DPR C...                    13%

000067 - KuPR: GPM PDR thru Completion of Remaining...                     13%

             000249 - Obs I&T - Vibe/Acoustics Testing (P)                10%

                    000246 - Obs I&T - Group 2 Testing (M)                9%

                   000174 - Flight Gimbal Assembly & Test                 9%




 Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                 11
Recognizing Schedule Gaming, Abuse
             and Data Manipulation Traps
       – Intentionally reducing or shrinking future activity durations
       – Keeping two sets of schedule “books,” such as working to “early” dates
         and reporting to “late” dates?
       – Inappropriately adding or removing activities
       – Employing preferential sequencing
       – Using too many calendars
       – Manipulating project logic
       – Over-reporting progress
       – Over-using constraints
       – Misusing lags
       – Hiding slack




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                             12
“Do We Have Enough Schedule slack and
               Margin/Reserve?”




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz       13
Free Slack, Total Slack & Reserve

                                                                           Total Slack
                                                                   Activity 4 can be delayed
                                                                    5 days before impacting
                                                                  the project delivery (ID#10)




                                                                                  Free Slack
                                                                          Activity 5 can be delayed
                                                                          35 days before impacting
                                                                            the start of activity 6




                                               Schedule Reserve
                                         Planned as a “dummy activity”
                                          and allocated by the project
                                        manager to protect the schedule


Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                            14
Total Slack Summary
                             Alpha Project Total Slack Summary




  Total Slack Summary provides a top level view of project’s slack position


Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                    15
Funded Schedule Margin/Reserve Trend


                                                     C+DH
                                                     MOD




                                                                               DELIVER TO LAUNCH SITE
                                                            I&T START




                                                                                                        LAUNCH
                          KDP-C
                    PDR




                                        CDR




                     11      2           11                        2                        2             6


       2008                  2009             2010              2011    2012                2013
Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                            16
Risk-Based Schedule Reserve
  Activity                Risk          Impact     Probability       Expected Value
Observatory               Late
Mechanical                              30 days   x    .10       =      3 days
                         MGSE
Integration

Observatory           Component
 Vibration                              45 days   x    .20       =      9 days
                       damage
   Test


Observatory              Noise                                         24 days
                                        40 days   x    .60       =
 EMI Test               anomaly


   Thermal            Instrument        80 days   x    .50       =     40 days
   Vacuum               failure
     Test
                                    Total Estimated Schedule Reserve 76 days
Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                 17
Using Schedule Risk Analysis to
                  Determine Schedule Reserve
                          0 - Total Project : Finish Date
                                                                  100% 30 Aug 10
                                                                  95% 09 Aug 10
                                                     Desired      90% 03 Aug 10
                                                     Confidence   85% 30 Jul 10
                                                                  80% 28 Jul 10




                                                                                   Cumulative Frequency
                     400                             Level        75% 27 Jul 10
                                                                  70% 23 Jul 10
                                                                  65% 22 Jul 10
                                                                  60% 21 Jul 10
                                                                  55% 20 Jul 10
              Hits




                                                                  50% 19 Jul 10
                                                    Potential     45% 16 Jul 10
                     200                            Reserve       40% 15 Jul 10
                                                                  35% 14 Jul 10
                                                                  30% 13 Jul 10
                                                                  25% 12 Jul 10
                                                                  20% 09 Jul 10
                                                                  15% 07 Jul 10
                                                                  10% 06 Jul 10
                                                                  5% 02 Jul 10
                        0                                         0% 23 Jun 10
                                        25 Jul 10
                             Distribution (start of interval)
Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                     18
“Is the Schedule Realistic, Credible and
                     Achievable?”




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz              19
SCHEDULE ASSESSMENT CHECKLIST


          Yes   No               Criterion Description                            Schedule Assessment
     1.   ___ ___    Does the IMS reflect the total scope of work?
     2.   ___ ___    Is the correct WBS element identified for each task
                     and milestone in the IMS?
                                                                                       Checklist
     3.   ___ ___    Is the IMS used by all levels of management for
                     project implementation and control?
     4.   ___ ___    Do all tasks/milestones have interdependencies
                     identified to reflect a credible logical sequence?
     5.   ___ ___    Are task durations reasonable, measureable, and at
                     appropriate level of detail for effective management?
     6.   ___ ___    Does the IMS include all contract and/or designated
                     management control milestones?
                                                                                    Source:
     7.   ___ ___    Does IMS reflect accurate current status & credible
                     start/finish forecasts for all to-go tasks and milestones?
                                                                                    NASA Schedule
     8.   ___ ___    Has the IMS been resource loaded and are assigned              Management Handbook
                     resources reasonable and available?
     9.   ___ ___    Is the critical path identifiable and determined by the
                     calculated IMS logic network?
     10. ___ ___     Is the critical path credible?
                                                                                    http://evm.nasa.gov/handbooks.html
     11. ___ ___     Has a Schedule Risk Assessment (SRA) been
                     conducted on the IMS within the last three months?
     12. ___ ___     Has adequate schedule margin been included and
                     clearly defined within the IMS?
     13. ___ ___     Has the IMS content been baselined and is it
                     adequately controlled?
     14. ___ ___     Is there an excessive & invalid use of task constraints
                     and relationship leads/lags?

     15. ___ ___     Are right task & resource calendars used in the IMS?




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                              20
Activity Duration Rules-of-Thumb
 •    Durations should be estimated by the person responsible for the activity
      (when feasible)
 •    Maximize the use of the Expected Value/3-Point Estimate Method to
      characterize uncertainty/risk in the activity
 •    Compare estimated durations to actual durations from similar activities on
      previous projects (when available)
 •    Review duration estimates with experts who have experience with similar
      types of work (sanity check)
 •    Near-to-intermediate term durations should not exceed one month
       – Status can easily be determined in one or two accounting periods
 •    “Long” durations render percentage complete determination little more than
      guesswork
 •    Duration estimates should not be
       – Padded by the estimator to hide reserve
       – Reduced by the estimator to “take a challenge” or “buy in”
       – Arbitrarily cut by management
 •    Always consider availability of key resources



Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                              21
Historic Schedule Analysis
 • Archive “As Planned” and “As Built” schedules for future
   comparison to new project schedules
 • Comparisons can be made between your project
   schedule and similar projects:
       – At the detailed or summary activity level
       – Duration of lifecycle phases
       – Elapsed time between major milestones




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                         22
Horizontal Integration Traceability Check
                                                                    XYZ Total
                                                                     Project       Work Breakdown Structure


            1.0 Project         2.0            4.0 Science             6.0            8.0 Launch                10.0 System
               Mgt.        System Engr.        /Technology          Spacecraft      Vehicle/Services                I&T


                                       3.0                 5.0              7.0 Mission            9.0 Ground
                                      SM & A             Payload            Ops System               System



            2.2.2.3 Power                 6.2.3 Solar Array Design                                         10.4.1.2. Integrate
            Reqt. Definition                                                                               Solar Arrays to S/C
                                          6.2.4 Solar Array Build

                                          6.2.5 Solar Array Test


                                   S/A                         S/A
                                  Design                       Build                                            Integ. S/As
                                  Activity 102               Activity 103                                          to S/C
      Specify
    Power Rqts.                                                                                                   Activity 406

      Activity 101                                                                        S/A
                                                                                          Test
                          Logic Network Diagram                                       Activity 104

Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                                            23
NEW      Over all Rating
                                        Project Name:          Pr oject XYZ                                               1.4 R
                                        Contractor: ACME Engineering
                                        F ile Type:           MS Pr oject                                Current
                                        Schedule Status
                                          Current Start (earliest activity Early Start date)                        1/1/2005
                                          Current Finish (latest activity Early Finish date)                       3/16/2008



      Schedule
                                          Approximate Remaining Work Days                                                722
                                          Is schedule externally linked to other schedules?                                N
                                          Status Date                                                              6/15/2005
                                        Task & Milestone Count (excl. Summary Tasks)            Count        % of Total
                                          Total Tasks & Milestones                               192



      Health/Integrity
                                          Completed Tasks & Milestones                            13              7%
                                          To Go Tasks & Milestones                               179             93%
                                        Logic (excl. Summary & Started/Completed Tasks)
                                          Tasks & Milestones Without Predecessors                 75             42%           R
                                          Tasks & Milestones Without Successors                   73             41%           R




      Check
                                          Constraints (other than ASAP) and Deadlines            102             57%           R
                                        Summaries with Logic Ties **                              1               1%           G
                                        Tasks & Milestones Needing Updates                       21              12%           R
                                        Actuals after Status Date                                 2               1%           Y
                                        Tasks marked as Milestones (have Duration > 0)            0               0%           G




      Demonstration
                                        Additional Schedule Infor mation
                                         Tasks with No Finish Ties                                20             11%
                                         Recurring Tasks                                           0              0%
                                         Tasks & Milestones with Estimated Durations              15              8%
                                         Schedule traceable to WBS (Y/N)                         Yes
                                         Realistic Critical Path(s) (Y/N)                        No
                                         Schedule Baselined (Y/N)                                No
                                         Resource Loaded (Y/N)                                   No
                                         Tasks & Milestones with 10 days or less TF               1               1%
                                         Tasks with Total Float > 25% of Rem Dur                 148             83%

                                                             Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                                              24
Vertical Integration Traceability Check

                                        2000 2001   2002 2003 2004
                    Master
                                                         C & DH
                   Schedule
                                                            ACS

                                                                  Power


                                             J F MAM J J A S O N D J                 Vertical
                 Intermediate /                               Battery
                                                                                    Schedule
                   Summary                                                         Integration
                                                                     Solar Array
                   Schedule
                                                                           PIU




                              Detail                                                   Work
                             Schedule                                                 Package
                                                                                      Activities
                                                           PIU Detail Schedule


Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                              25
Project Control Milestone* Method
                                                    “S” Curve Check

               70



               60



               50                     “S” Curve = Realism
 *Baseline                               Look for:
Early Finish                                Slow start
   Dates       40
                                            Ramp up
                                            Level off                                                Baseline
               30



               20



               10



                 0
                     Oct '05   Nov '05    Dec '05   Jan '06   Feb '06   Mar '06   Apr '06   May '06   Jun '06   Jul '06   Aug '06   Sep '06
    Cum Baseline        1         2          3        6         11        22        32        45        53        59        62        65
    Cum Actual
    Cum Forecast

  Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                                              26
Resource Leveling
                              Initial Critical Path Method Schedule




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                 27
Resource Leveling
                 Resources are Allocated or “Loaded” into Activities




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                  28
Resource Leveling
                                                       Initial Resource Profile
                                                                Apr 16, '06                                          Apr 23, '06
              M       T       W         T        F      S           S          M      T      W      T      F     S       S          M      T     W

   300%


                                                                                                                        Mechanical
   250%                                                                                                                   Tech II
                                                                                                                         Capacity:
   200%
                                                                                                                           1 tech

   150%
                                                                                                                            1-8-5


   100%




    50%




Peak Units:
Peak Units          300%     300%    200%       200%                          200%   100%   100%   100%   100%                     100%   100%

              Mech Tech II     Overallocated:               Allocated:

              The shortage or over-commitment of resources is determined by profiling the needed
                         resources and comparing them to their availability or capacity.
       Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                                                         29
Resource Leveling
                                                                                  “Leveled” Resource Profile
                                                             Apr 16, '06                                           Apr 23, '06                                           Apr 30, '06
              M        T       W         T       F     S         S          M       T      W      T      F     S       S          M      T      W      T      F      S       S          M      T      W      T     F
    100%




     80%
                                                                                  Original 11
                                                                                   work day
     60%
                                                                                     plan

                                                                           (before leveling)                                                                        7 additional
     40%                                                                                                                                                             work days
                                                                                                                                                                    are needed
     20%
                                                                                                                                                                  (after leveling)

Peak Units:          100%     100%     100%     100%                       100%    100%   100%   100%   100%                     100%   100%   100%   100%   100%                      100%   100%   100%   100%

              Mech Tech II     Overallocated:          Allocated:




                             Management decides to “level” or smooth the “Mechanical Tech II”
                               resource allocation to fit the available capacity of one MTII.
              Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                                                                                                                30
Resource Leveling
                            Resource – Constrained Schedule




                                                   Before Leveling   After Leveling



 “Leveling” the resources results in a more realistic schedule, but delivery
                may not happen on 4/25/06 as anticipated.

Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                           31
“How are we Performing and what is Slipping?”




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz      32
Activity Plan vs. Actual Report




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                33
Current and Forecast PCM Variances
                                                            70



                                                            60
                         (Baseline and forecast are Early




                                                            50                                                                                          Plan vs.
                                                                                                                                                        Forecast
                                                                                                            Baseline
     Quantity of PCMs




                                                                                                                                                        Variance
                                  Finish dates)




                                                            40
                                                                                                                                                                   Forecast
                                                            30
                                                                                                                                Plan vs.
                                                                                                                                Actual
                                                                                                                                Variance
                                                            20




                                                                                                                             Actual
                                                            10



                                                            0
                                                                 Oct '05   Nov '05   Dec '05   Jan '06   Feb '06   Mar '06   Apr '06   May '06   Jun '06    Jul '06   Aug '06   Sep '06
                        Cum Baseline                                1         2         3        6         11        22        32          45      53         59        62        65
                        Cum Actual                                  1         3         7        7         8         9         12          16
                        Cum Forecast                                                                                                       16      27         39        56        65


Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                                                                                                  34
PCM Performance Ratio Analysis

                       SCS Project Control Milestone Performance: As of May 2006
                               2005                                     2006
                         Oct   Nov    Dec Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May Jun    Jul   Aug Sep   Oct   Nov
          CUM Baseline    1     2       3   6   11    22    32     45   53   59    62   65
          CUM Actual      1     3       7   7    8     9    12     16



                                                 TO DATE
                            16 milestones ÷ 8 months = 2 per month (actual rate)
                          45 milestones ÷ 8 months = 5.6 per month (baseline rate)
                                Cumulative Efficiency to Date: 16 ÷ 45 = .36




             0%                                       50%                               100%
                         Less Efficient                           More Efficient
           So far, schedule efficiency is .36 - the NBT team is accomplishing, on
                     average, about one third of the planned milestones.
Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                    35
What About the Schedule Performance
              Index from Earned Value Management?

               Schedule Performance Index
                 Formula:               SPI =    Earned Value (cum)
                                                Planned Value (cum)

                 NBT example:           SPI =    $34M   = .40
                                                 $85M

                SPI = .40                                  PCM Performance Index = .36
      For every dollar of work                             36% of the planned milestones
    planned, 40 cents of work is                             have been accomplished
        being accomplished


       Look for an approximate correlation between the two values and
                  investigate reasons for significant differences.
Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                    36
“What Can Past Performance Tell Us About the Future?”




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz              37
Linear Projection of PCM Actual Performance
                                                             70



                                                             60
                          (Baseline and forecast are Early




                                                             50

                                                                                                                Baseline
     Quantity of PCMs

                                   Finish dates)




                                                             40
                                                                                                                                                                   Forecast
                                                             30



                                                             20
                                                                                                                     Actual
                                                             10



                                                             0
                                                                  Oct '05   Nov '05   Dec '05   Jan '06   Feb '06   Mar '06   Apr '06   May '06   Jun '06   Jul '06   Aug '06   Sep '06
                        Cum Baseline                                 1         2         3        6         11        22        32        45        53        59        62        65
                        Cum Actual                                   1         3         7        7         8         9         12        16
                        Cum Forecast                                                                                                      16        27        39        56        65


Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                                                                                                  38
Forecast-to-Complete Based on PCM
                                            Performance-to-Date
                       SCS Project Control Milestone Performance: As of May 2006
                               2005                                       2006
                         Oct   Nov    Dec Jan    Feb   Mar   Apr    May Jun    Jul   Aug Sep   Oct   Nov
          CUM Baseline    1     2       3    6   11    22    32      45   53   59    62   65
          CUM Actual      1     3       7    7    8     9    12      16



                           TO DATE                                 FORECAST BASED ON PERFORMANCE
                    16 PCMs completed                                 Performance to date = 2 per month
                     8 months planned                              49 PCMs remaining to finish (65-16 = 49)
                 16 ÷ 8 = 2 PCMs per month                                  49 ÷ 2 = 24.5 months !




         Based on the historic rate of performance of 2 PCMs per month,
         NBT will not finish for another 24.5 months – 20.5 months later
                           than the baseline schedule.

Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                         39
11/02/07


                                                         PCM Completion Index
                                                      Electronics Module Milestone Completion
                             1.20                                                Performance Index
                                                                                                                                                                      Performance            Actual M/S
                                                                                                                                                                                 =
                             1.10                                                                                                                                        Index               Planned M/S


                             1.00
                                                                                                                                                                     PI past             18 Actuals
                                                                                                                                                                                =                     =    19%
                              .90                                                                                                                                    5 wks               97 Planned


                             . 80                                                                                                                                          Projection
                                                                                                                                                          Approx. 5 mos. Remaining to EM del. to SEIT
      PCM Completion Index




                              .70                                                                                                                                       10/26/07 – 03/28/08
                                                                                                                                                                5 mos
                                                                                                                                                                         = 26.3 mos. to EM delivery
                              .60                                                                                                                                   .19 Current Performance
                                                                                                                                                                5 mos
                              .50                                                                                                                                         = 12.5 mos. to EM delivery
                                                                                                                                                                    .40 Performance

                              .40                                                                                                                               5 mos
                                                                                                                                                                          = 8.3 mos. to EM delivery
                                                                                                                                                                    .60 Performance
                              .30
                                                                                                                                                                5 mos
                                                                                                                                                                          = 6.25 mos. to EM delivery
                              .20                                                                                                                                   .80 Performance

                                                                                                                                                                5 mos
                                                                                                                                                                       = 5 mos. to EM delivery
                              .10                                                                                                                               1.00 Performance


                              .00
                                    Mar 07   Apr 07   May 07   Jun 07   Jul 07   Aug 07    21   28   05   12    19     26   02   09   16   23   30   07    14   21    28   04       11     18 25      01   08    15

                                                                                           Sept 07            Oct 07              Nov 07                   Dec 07                   Jan 08                 Feb 08

  Month/Week                        Mar 07   Apr 07   May 07   Jun 07   Jul 07   Aug 07    21   28   05   12    19     26   02   09   16   23   30   07    14   21    28   04       11     18 25      01   08    15
Baseline Monthly/wkly
Finishes                             48       58       82       54       42      Re- B/L 130 23      33   23    14     8
Actual Monthly/wkly                                                              in
                                     44       26       28       36       14              130 3       5    5     4      1
Finishes                                                                         process
% Complete                           92%     45%       34%      67%      33%              100%13% 15% 22% 29% 13%
         Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                                                                                                             40
Delivery Date Trend vs. Need Date Trend
                                                            GRS Delivery Trend
                                                            As of: December 31, 2007
                         2011
                          Jan
Forecast I&T Need Date
Forecast Delivery Date

                         2010
                         Dec




                                              Instrument I&T
                                             Sequence Change
                         2010
                         Nov




                                                                    Detector
                                                                    Problem
                         2010
                          Oct




                                                                                       Subcontract
                                                                                         CCAS                     T/V Chamber
                                                                                                                 Re-Certification
                         2010
                         Sept




                                           Facility
                                           Move to
                         2010




                                           Denver
                         Aug
                         2010
                          Jul




                                Contract      J        F      M       A         M     J     J         A     S     O      N      D
                                 Award       ‘07      ‘07    ‘07     ‘07       ‘07   ‘07   ‘07       ‘07   ‘07   ‘07    ‘07    ‘07


                                                                   Month End Status Date
 Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                                               41
“How Will Changes Impact the Schedule?”




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz         42
NOAA M-N’ Integration & Test Summary
                                         Schedule As of 3/31/01
 *Based on Preliminary LMMS Rev S Schedule




                                                                       “What-If” the
                                                                    launch was delayed
                                                                        to 6/30/02?




                                                Foot Notes:
                                                1. A303 Removal; Installation of Mass Models*
                                                2. A303 Re-Integration & IPF/DET*               6. A303 Installation on N’ 5/13/01
                                                3. SEM & SBUV* Removal                          7. SBUV Delivery 7/6/01
   * = Not yet in LMMS Master Schedule          4. SEM & SBUV* Re-Integration                   8. SARP/ADCS Delivery 4/30/02
                                                5. SARR Delivery 6/15/01                        9. SARP & ADCS Integration*
Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                                                43
NOAA M-N’ Integration & Test Summary Schedule:
                                                     6/30/02 M Launch
 *Based on Preliminary LMMS Rev S Schedule



                                                                                 Possible delays in
                                                                                    completing
                                                                                    remaining
                                                                                   Spacecraft +
                                                                                  EOC extension




      Foot Notes:
      1. SEM, SBUV, AVHRR & H303 Removal             6. SEM & SBUV* Re-Integration
      2. SEM, SBUV, AVHRR & H303 Re-Integration      7. SARP & ADCS Software Upgrades*
      3. A303 Removal; Installation of Mass Model*   8. SARP/ADCS Delivery 4/30/02
      4. A303 Re-Integration & IPF/DET*              9. SARP & ADCS Integration*
      5. SEM & SBUV* Removal                                                             * = Not yet in LMMS Master Schedule


Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                                          44
NOAA-M Launch From VAFB, CA –
                       6/24/02




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz       45
“What-If” Analysis of Schedule
                                 Confidence Level
                      GPM Core LRD: Schedule Confidence Level Comparison
          GPM Schedule PDR Model - Core Launch Readiness Date with Discrete Risks
          GPM Schedule PDR Model - Core Launch Readiness Date+Titanium Tank & Controlled Re-entry

                                         Variation: 33.3 days
                                                                                                                        100%



                                                                                                                        80%



                                                            26/Aug/13
                                          24/Jul/13




                                                                                                                               Cumulative Probability
                                                                                                                        60%



                                                                                                                        40%



                                                                                                                        20%



                                                                                                                        0%
               06/May/13     25/Jun/13                14/Aug/13         03/Oct/13   22/Nov/13   11/Jan/14   02/Mar/14




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                                                                   46
“How Are Our Contractors/Suppliers Performing?”


           The schedule analysis
           techniques described
           today also apply to your
           contractors/suppliers




 Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz      47
Critical Parts Status Monitoring
                                               OIM Instrument Critical Parts Status
                                                         As of: May 29, 2009

            Part                   Vendor                 EM               Proto-Flight                     FM-2     Spare
Backplane                   Emerald MFG

Phase Lock Oscillator       Malvern

DROS                        Paratech

Harness                     TVC

Phaser Interspace PWA       General Avionics

Power Converter             GOULD

I/O Controller PWA          General Avionics

Enclosure                   Bell Machining

Real Time Clock PWA         General Avionics

ONC Filters                 Spellman Filter Co.



                                                                                                                   Late (Major
                                                                                          Late (Potential
                     Received                         On Schedule                                                  Impact to I&T
                                                                                          Impact to I&T)
                                                                                                                   Anticipated)




   Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                                     48
“Have Any Schedule Assumptions Changed?”
 • Assumptions are documented
   in:
    – Activity constraints
    – Dependencies/logic
    – Activity durations
    – Leads and lags
    – Calendars
    – Resources



            Periodically re-examine your schedule
            assumptions to determine if they have changed.


Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                        49
“How Can We Get Done Sooner, Recover from this
         Delay or Workaround this Problem?”
           Approach                                                 Description
                                        Schedule compression technique in which resources are added (or
Crashing                                diverted from non-critical activities) to critical path activities in a way
                                        that accomplishes the work faster at the least incremental cost
                                        Schedule compression technique in which the logic of activities
Fast Tracking                           normally performed in sequence is modified so some or all are of
                                        the activities are performed in parallel, saving time
                                        Examine changes to activity relationships which offset the impact of
Alternative Project Logic               delays or support an earlier project completion date

Resource vs. Free Slack Trade-          Examines the effect of temporarily diverting resources from non-
   Off Analysis                         critical path activities with free slack to critical path activities
Allocate Reserve                        Use schedule reserve to absorb the impact of schedule delays

Descopes                                Removal of scope from the project and schedule while still meeting
                                        the project’s objectives
Replan / “Rebaseline”                   Establish a new plan for the remaining effort

                                        Evaluation of descope options, alternate work flows, recovery
“What-If” Analysis                      approaches, workaround plans, reserve allocation, additional
                                        resources, etc.


Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                                                                          50
Thank you.

                             Walt Majerowicz, MBA, PMP
                                 ASRC Aerospace Corporation
                                  walt.majerowicz@nasa.gov
                                  walt.majerowicz@gmail.com
                                         301-286-5622




Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz                         51

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Majerowicz

  • 1. Schedule Analysis Techniques Walter Majerowicz, MBA, PMP ASRC Aerospace Corporation NASA Goddard Space Flight Center NASA PM Challenge 2010 February 9-10, 2010 Galveston, Texas Used with permission
  • 2. Learning Outcomes • This presentation will examine how schedule analysis can help project teams understand: –When will the project finish? –Where is the risk in the schedule? –Do we have enough schedule slack and margin/reserve? –Is the schedule realistic, credible and achievable? –How are we performing and what is slipping? –What can past performance tell us about the future? –How will changes impact the schedule? –How are our contractors/suppliers performing? –Have any of our assumptions changed? –How can we get done sooner, recover from this delay or workaround this problem? Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 2
  • 3. “When Will the Project Finish?” Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 3
  • 4. Critical Path Analysis SCS Project Schedule – at baseline Critical Path at Baseline Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 4
  • 5. Critical Path Analysis SCS Project Schedule as of 10/31/08 Subsystem B Delayed Delivery threatened Negative Total Slack Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 5
  • 6. What is Our Confidence in Finishing on Time? Monte Carlo 0 - Total Project : Finish Date 100% 30 Aug 10 95% 09 Aug 10 90% 03 Aug 10 85% 30 Jul 10 Schedule 80% 28 Jul 10 Cumulative Frequency 400 75% 27 Jul 10 70% 23 Jul 10 65% 22 Jul 10 60% 21 Jul 10 55% 20 Jul 10 Hits 50% 19 Jul 10 Risk 200 45% 16 Jul 10 40% 15 Jul 10 35% 14 Jul 10 30% 13 Jul 10 25% 12 Jul 10 20% 09 Jul 10 15% 07 Jul 10 Analysis 0 25 Jul 10 10% 06 Jul 10 5% 02 Jul 10 0% 23 Jun 10 Distribution (start of interval) Demonstration Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 6
  • 7. “Where is the Risk in the Schedule?” Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 7
  • 8. Risky Business Task 1 A Which activity is least likely Task 1 to start on time?: B A ____ Task 2 B ____ C ____ Task 1 Task 2 Why? C Task 3 (Hint: Assume all dependencies are FS) Task 4 Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 8
  • 9. Riskier Business • Consider two independent activities scheduled to finish on June 10th Probability of • Both activities are needed to fulfill the delivery on-time finish = .90 milestone on June 10th • The probability of Activity A finishing on time is Activity A .90, and the probability of Activity B is .80 • What is the probability of meeting the (Finish June 10th) completion milestone on time? – .90 – .80 Probability of – .72 on-time finish = .80 – .85 – Cannot determine / insufficient data Deliver Activity B June 10th (Finish June 10th) Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 9
  • 10. Total Slack Trend With Thresholds WBS 1.1.2.2 RTT B Assembly Risk Indicator 35 30 Alert Zone 1 25 Replace cracked Total Slack 20 DRX-002 Test chamber availability delay 15 Alert 10 Zone 2 Troubleshoot 5 noise anomaly 0 Alert Zone 3 -5 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug '04 '04 '04 '04 '05 '05 '05 '05 '05 '05 '05 '05 Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 10
  • 11. Activity Duration Sensitivity GPM Schedule PDR Model Duration Sensitivity 000145 - Propellant Tank: GPM PDR thru Build/Test & Del... 61% 0020 - Risk 53: Design for Demise 37% 0040 - Risk SRB-2: Thermal Design Problems/Issues 27% 000064 - KaPR: PFM Fabrication and Assembly 15% 000232 - Instr I&T - DPR Instr Integ (D) 14% 000065 - KaPR: PFM Testing & Delivery to Ka/Ku DPR C... 13% 000067 - KuPR: GPM PDR thru Completion of Remaining... 13% 000249 - Obs I&T - Vibe/Acoustics Testing (P) 10% 000246 - Obs I&T - Group 2 Testing (M) 9% 000174 - Flight Gimbal Assembly & Test 9% Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 11
  • 12. Recognizing Schedule Gaming, Abuse and Data Manipulation Traps – Intentionally reducing or shrinking future activity durations – Keeping two sets of schedule “books,” such as working to “early” dates and reporting to “late” dates? – Inappropriately adding or removing activities – Employing preferential sequencing – Using too many calendars – Manipulating project logic – Over-reporting progress – Over-using constraints – Misusing lags – Hiding slack Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 12
  • 13. “Do We Have Enough Schedule slack and Margin/Reserve?” Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 13
  • 14. Free Slack, Total Slack & Reserve Total Slack Activity 4 can be delayed 5 days before impacting the project delivery (ID#10) Free Slack Activity 5 can be delayed 35 days before impacting the start of activity 6 Schedule Reserve Planned as a “dummy activity” and allocated by the project manager to protect the schedule Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 14
  • 15. Total Slack Summary Alpha Project Total Slack Summary Total Slack Summary provides a top level view of project’s slack position Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 15
  • 16. Funded Schedule Margin/Reserve Trend C+DH MOD DELIVER TO LAUNCH SITE I&T START LAUNCH KDP-C PDR CDR 11 2 11 2 2 6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 16
  • 17. Risk-Based Schedule Reserve Activity Risk Impact Probability Expected Value Observatory Late Mechanical 30 days x .10 = 3 days MGSE Integration Observatory Component Vibration 45 days x .20 = 9 days damage Test Observatory Noise 24 days 40 days x .60 = EMI Test anomaly Thermal Instrument 80 days x .50 = 40 days Vacuum failure Test Total Estimated Schedule Reserve 76 days Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 17
  • 18. Using Schedule Risk Analysis to Determine Schedule Reserve 0 - Total Project : Finish Date 100% 30 Aug 10 95% 09 Aug 10 Desired 90% 03 Aug 10 Confidence 85% 30 Jul 10 80% 28 Jul 10 Cumulative Frequency 400 Level 75% 27 Jul 10 70% 23 Jul 10 65% 22 Jul 10 60% 21 Jul 10 55% 20 Jul 10 Hits 50% 19 Jul 10 Potential 45% 16 Jul 10 200 Reserve 40% 15 Jul 10 35% 14 Jul 10 30% 13 Jul 10 25% 12 Jul 10 20% 09 Jul 10 15% 07 Jul 10 10% 06 Jul 10 5% 02 Jul 10 0 0% 23 Jun 10 25 Jul 10 Distribution (start of interval) Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 18
  • 19. “Is the Schedule Realistic, Credible and Achievable?” Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 19
  • 20. SCHEDULE ASSESSMENT CHECKLIST Yes No Criterion Description Schedule Assessment 1. ___ ___ Does the IMS reflect the total scope of work? 2. ___ ___ Is the correct WBS element identified for each task and milestone in the IMS? Checklist 3. ___ ___ Is the IMS used by all levels of management for project implementation and control? 4. ___ ___ Do all tasks/milestones have interdependencies identified to reflect a credible logical sequence? 5. ___ ___ Are task durations reasonable, measureable, and at appropriate level of detail for effective management? 6. ___ ___ Does the IMS include all contract and/or designated management control milestones? Source: 7. ___ ___ Does IMS reflect accurate current status & credible start/finish forecasts for all to-go tasks and milestones? NASA Schedule 8. ___ ___ Has the IMS been resource loaded and are assigned Management Handbook resources reasonable and available? 9. ___ ___ Is the critical path identifiable and determined by the calculated IMS logic network? 10. ___ ___ Is the critical path credible? http://evm.nasa.gov/handbooks.html 11. ___ ___ Has a Schedule Risk Assessment (SRA) been conducted on the IMS within the last three months? 12. ___ ___ Has adequate schedule margin been included and clearly defined within the IMS? 13. ___ ___ Has the IMS content been baselined and is it adequately controlled? 14. ___ ___ Is there an excessive & invalid use of task constraints and relationship leads/lags? 15. ___ ___ Are right task & resource calendars used in the IMS? Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 20
  • 21. Activity Duration Rules-of-Thumb • Durations should be estimated by the person responsible for the activity (when feasible) • Maximize the use of the Expected Value/3-Point Estimate Method to characterize uncertainty/risk in the activity • Compare estimated durations to actual durations from similar activities on previous projects (when available) • Review duration estimates with experts who have experience with similar types of work (sanity check) • Near-to-intermediate term durations should not exceed one month – Status can easily be determined in one or two accounting periods • “Long” durations render percentage complete determination little more than guesswork • Duration estimates should not be – Padded by the estimator to hide reserve – Reduced by the estimator to “take a challenge” or “buy in” – Arbitrarily cut by management • Always consider availability of key resources Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 21
  • 22. Historic Schedule Analysis • Archive “As Planned” and “As Built” schedules for future comparison to new project schedules • Comparisons can be made between your project schedule and similar projects: – At the detailed or summary activity level – Duration of lifecycle phases – Elapsed time between major milestones Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 22
  • 23. Horizontal Integration Traceability Check XYZ Total Project Work Breakdown Structure 1.0 Project 2.0 4.0 Science 6.0 8.0 Launch 10.0 System Mgt. System Engr. /Technology Spacecraft Vehicle/Services I&T 3.0 5.0 7.0 Mission 9.0 Ground SM & A Payload Ops System System 2.2.2.3 Power 6.2.3 Solar Array Design 10.4.1.2. Integrate Reqt. Definition Solar Arrays to S/C 6.2.4 Solar Array Build 6.2.5 Solar Array Test S/A S/A Design Build Integ. S/As Activity 102 Activity 103 to S/C Specify Power Rqts. Activity 406 Activity 101 S/A Test Logic Network Diagram Activity 104 Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 23
  • 24. NEW Over all Rating Project Name: Pr oject XYZ 1.4 R Contractor: ACME Engineering F ile Type: MS Pr oject Current Schedule Status Current Start (earliest activity Early Start date) 1/1/2005 Current Finish (latest activity Early Finish date) 3/16/2008 Schedule Approximate Remaining Work Days 722 Is schedule externally linked to other schedules? N Status Date 6/15/2005 Task & Milestone Count (excl. Summary Tasks) Count % of Total Total Tasks & Milestones 192 Health/Integrity Completed Tasks & Milestones 13 7% To Go Tasks & Milestones 179 93% Logic (excl. Summary & Started/Completed Tasks) Tasks & Milestones Without Predecessors 75 42% R Tasks & Milestones Without Successors 73 41% R Check Constraints (other than ASAP) and Deadlines 102 57% R Summaries with Logic Ties ** 1 1% G Tasks & Milestones Needing Updates 21 12% R Actuals after Status Date 2 1% Y Tasks marked as Milestones (have Duration > 0) 0 0% G Demonstration Additional Schedule Infor mation Tasks with No Finish Ties 20 11% Recurring Tasks 0 0% Tasks & Milestones with Estimated Durations 15 8% Schedule traceable to WBS (Y/N) Yes Realistic Critical Path(s) (Y/N) No Schedule Baselined (Y/N) No Resource Loaded (Y/N) No Tasks & Milestones with 10 days or less TF 1 1% Tasks with Total Float > 25% of Rem Dur 148 83% Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 24
  • 25. Vertical Integration Traceability Check 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Master C & DH Schedule ACS Power J F MAM J J A S O N D J Vertical Intermediate / Battery Schedule Summary Integration Solar Array Schedule PIU Detail Work Schedule Package Activities PIU Detail Schedule Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 25
  • 26. Project Control Milestone* Method “S” Curve Check 70 60 50 “S” Curve = Realism *Baseline Look for: Early Finish  Slow start Dates 40  Ramp up  Level off Baseline 30 20 10 0 Oct '05 Nov '05 Dec '05 Jan '06 Feb '06 Mar '06 Apr '06 May '06 Jun '06 Jul '06 Aug '06 Sep '06 Cum Baseline 1 2 3 6 11 22 32 45 53 59 62 65 Cum Actual Cum Forecast Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 26
  • 27. Resource Leveling Initial Critical Path Method Schedule Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 27
  • 28. Resource Leveling Resources are Allocated or “Loaded” into Activities Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 28
  • 29. Resource Leveling Initial Resource Profile Apr 16, '06 Apr 23, '06 M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W 300% Mechanical 250% Tech II Capacity: 200%  1 tech 150%  1-8-5 100% 50% Peak Units: Peak Units 300% 300% 200% 200% 200% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Mech Tech II Overallocated: Allocated: The shortage or over-commitment of resources is determined by profiling the needed resources and comparing them to their availability or capacity. Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 29
  • 30. Resource Leveling “Leveled” Resource Profile Apr 16, '06 Apr 23, '06 Apr 30, '06 M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F S S M T W T F 100% 80% Original 11 work day 60% plan (before leveling) 7 additional 40% work days are needed 20% (after leveling) Peak Units: 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Mech Tech II Overallocated: Allocated: Management decides to “level” or smooth the “Mechanical Tech II” resource allocation to fit the available capacity of one MTII. Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 30
  • 31. Resource Leveling Resource – Constrained Schedule Before Leveling After Leveling “Leveling” the resources results in a more realistic schedule, but delivery may not happen on 4/25/06 as anticipated. Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 31
  • 32. “How are we Performing and what is Slipping?” Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 32
  • 33. Activity Plan vs. Actual Report Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 33
  • 34. Current and Forecast PCM Variances 70 60 (Baseline and forecast are Early 50 Plan vs. Forecast Baseline Quantity of PCMs Variance Finish dates) 40 Forecast 30 Plan vs. Actual Variance 20 Actual 10 0 Oct '05 Nov '05 Dec '05 Jan '06 Feb '06 Mar '06 Apr '06 May '06 Jun '06 Jul '06 Aug '06 Sep '06 Cum Baseline 1 2 3 6 11 22 32 45 53 59 62 65 Cum Actual 1 3 7 7 8 9 12 16 Cum Forecast 16 27 39 56 65 Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 34
  • 35. PCM Performance Ratio Analysis SCS Project Control Milestone Performance: As of May 2006 2005 2006 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov CUM Baseline 1 2 3 6 11 22 32 45 53 59 62 65 CUM Actual 1 3 7 7 8 9 12 16 TO DATE 16 milestones ÷ 8 months = 2 per month (actual rate) 45 milestones ÷ 8 months = 5.6 per month (baseline rate) Cumulative Efficiency to Date: 16 ÷ 45 = .36 0% 50% 100% Less Efficient More Efficient So far, schedule efficiency is .36 - the NBT team is accomplishing, on average, about one third of the planned milestones. Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 35
  • 36. What About the Schedule Performance Index from Earned Value Management? Schedule Performance Index Formula: SPI = Earned Value (cum) Planned Value (cum) NBT example: SPI = $34M = .40 $85M SPI = .40 PCM Performance Index = .36 For every dollar of work 36% of the planned milestones planned, 40 cents of work is have been accomplished being accomplished Look for an approximate correlation between the two values and investigate reasons for significant differences. Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 36
  • 37. “What Can Past Performance Tell Us About the Future?” Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 37
  • 38. Linear Projection of PCM Actual Performance 70 60 (Baseline and forecast are Early 50 Baseline Quantity of PCMs Finish dates) 40 Forecast 30 20 Actual 10 0 Oct '05 Nov '05 Dec '05 Jan '06 Feb '06 Mar '06 Apr '06 May '06 Jun '06 Jul '06 Aug '06 Sep '06 Cum Baseline 1 2 3 6 11 22 32 45 53 59 62 65 Cum Actual 1 3 7 7 8 9 12 16 Cum Forecast 16 27 39 56 65 Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 38
  • 39. Forecast-to-Complete Based on PCM Performance-to-Date SCS Project Control Milestone Performance: As of May 2006 2005 2006 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov CUM Baseline 1 2 3 6 11 22 32 45 53 59 62 65 CUM Actual 1 3 7 7 8 9 12 16 TO DATE FORECAST BASED ON PERFORMANCE 16 PCMs completed Performance to date = 2 per month 8 months planned 49 PCMs remaining to finish (65-16 = 49) 16 ÷ 8 = 2 PCMs per month 49 ÷ 2 = 24.5 months ! Based on the historic rate of performance of 2 PCMs per month, NBT will not finish for another 24.5 months – 20.5 months later than the baseline schedule. Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 39
  • 40. 11/02/07 PCM Completion Index Electronics Module Milestone Completion 1.20 Performance Index Performance Actual M/S = 1.10 Index Planned M/S 1.00 PI past 18 Actuals = = 19% .90 5 wks 97 Planned . 80 Projection Approx. 5 mos. Remaining to EM del. to SEIT PCM Completion Index .70 10/26/07 – 03/28/08 5 mos = 26.3 mos. to EM delivery .60 .19 Current Performance 5 mos .50 = 12.5 mos. to EM delivery .40 Performance .40 5 mos = 8.3 mos. to EM delivery .60 Performance .30 5 mos = 6.25 mos. to EM delivery .20 .80 Performance 5 mos = 5 mos. to EM delivery .10 1.00 Performance .00 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 Sept 07 Oct 07 Nov 07 Dec 07 Jan 08 Feb 08 Month/Week Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 Baseline Monthly/wkly Finishes 48 58 82 54 42 Re- B/L 130 23 33 23 14 8 Actual Monthly/wkly in 44 26 28 36 14 130 3 5 5 4 1 Finishes process % Complete 92% 45% 34% 67% 33% 100%13% 15% 22% 29% 13% Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 40
  • 41. Delivery Date Trend vs. Need Date Trend GRS Delivery Trend As of: December 31, 2007 2011 Jan Forecast I&T Need Date Forecast Delivery Date 2010 Dec Instrument I&T Sequence Change 2010 Nov Detector Problem 2010 Oct Subcontract CCAS T/V Chamber Re-Certification 2010 Sept Facility Move to 2010 Denver Aug 2010 Jul Contract J F M A M J J A S O N D Award ‘07 ‘07 ‘07 ‘07 ‘07 ‘07 ‘07 ‘07 ‘07 ‘07 ‘07 ‘07 Month End Status Date Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 41
  • 42. “How Will Changes Impact the Schedule?” Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 42
  • 43. NOAA M-N’ Integration & Test Summary Schedule As of 3/31/01 *Based on Preliminary LMMS Rev S Schedule “What-If” the launch was delayed to 6/30/02? Foot Notes: 1. A303 Removal; Installation of Mass Models* 2. A303 Re-Integration & IPF/DET* 6. A303 Installation on N’ 5/13/01 3. SEM & SBUV* Removal 7. SBUV Delivery 7/6/01 * = Not yet in LMMS Master Schedule 4. SEM & SBUV* Re-Integration 8. SARP/ADCS Delivery 4/30/02 5. SARR Delivery 6/15/01 9. SARP & ADCS Integration* Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 43
  • 44. NOAA M-N’ Integration & Test Summary Schedule: 6/30/02 M Launch *Based on Preliminary LMMS Rev S Schedule Possible delays in completing remaining Spacecraft + EOC extension Foot Notes: 1. SEM, SBUV, AVHRR & H303 Removal 6. SEM & SBUV* Re-Integration 2. SEM, SBUV, AVHRR & H303 Re-Integration 7. SARP & ADCS Software Upgrades* 3. A303 Removal; Installation of Mass Model* 8. SARP/ADCS Delivery 4/30/02 4. A303 Re-Integration & IPF/DET* 9. SARP & ADCS Integration* 5. SEM & SBUV* Removal * = Not yet in LMMS Master Schedule Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 44
  • 45. NOAA-M Launch From VAFB, CA – 6/24/02 Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 45
  • 46. “What-If” Analysis of Schedule Confidence Level GPM Core LRD: Schedule Confidence Level Comparison GPM Schedule PDR Model - Core Launch Readiness Date with Discrete Risks GPM Schedule PDR Model - Core Launch Readiness Date+Titanium Tank & Controlled Re-entry Variation: 33.3 days 100% 80% 26/Aug/13 24/Jul/13 Cumulative Probability 60% 40% 20% 0% 06/May/13 25/Jun/13 14/Aug/13 03/Oct/13 22/Nov/13 11/Jan/14 02/Mar/14 Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 46
  • 47. “How Are Our Contractors/Suppliers Performing?” The schedule analysis techniques described today also apply to your contractors/suppliers Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 47
  • 48. Critical Parts Status Monitoring OIM Instrument Critical Parts Status As of: May 29, 2009 Part Vendor EM Proto-Flight FM-2 Spare Backplane Emerald MFG Phase Lock Oscillator Malvern DROS Paratech Harness TVC Phaser Interspace PWA General Avionics Power Converter GOULD I/O Controller PWA General Avionics Enclosure Bell Machining Real Time Clock PWA General Avionics ONC Filters Spellman Filter Co. Late (Major Late (Potential Received On Schedule Impact to I&T Impact to I&T) Anticipated) Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 48
  • 49. “Have Any Schedule Assumptions Changed?” • Assumptions are documented in: – Activity constraints – Dependencies/logic – Activity durations – Leads and lags – Calendars – Resources Periodically re-examine your schedule assumptions to determine if they have changed. Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 49
  • 50. “How Can We Get Done Sooner, Recover from this Delay or Workaround this Problem?” Approach Description Schedule compression technique in which resources are added (or Crashing diverted from non-critical activities) to critical path activities in a way that accomplishes the work faster at the least incremental cost Schedule compression technique in which the logic of activities Fast Tracking normally performed in sequence is modified so some or all are of the activities are performed in parallel, saving time Examine changes to activity relationships which offset the impact of Alternative Project Logic delays or support an earlier project completion date Resource vs. Free Slack Trade- Examines the effect of temporarily diverting resources from non- Off Analysis critical path activities with free slack to critical path activities Allocate Reserve Use schedule reserve to absorb the impact of schedule delays Descopes Removal of scope from the project and schedule while still meeting the project’s objectives Replan / “Rebaseline” Establish a new plan for the remaining effort Evaluation of descope options, alternate work flows, recovery “What-If” Analysis approaches, workaround plans, reserve allocation, additional resources, etc. Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 50
  • 51. Thank you. Walt Majerowicz, MBA, PMP ASRC Aerospace Corporation walt.majerowicz@nasa.gov walt.majerowicz@gmail.com 301-286-5622 Copyright © 2009 by Walter Majerowicz 51