Presentation by Maria Janowiak, Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science and US Forest Service

1. CLIMATE CHANGE
EFFECTS ON FORESTS
Challenges & Opportunities
www.forestadaptation.org
Maria Janowiak, mjanowiak02@fs.fed.us

2. Climate Change Impacts
1) Warmer temperatures
2) Increased carbon dioxide
3) Changes in habitat suitability
4) Extreme events
5) Interactions

3. Vulnerability Assessment & Synthesis
In progress for 2016
Synthesize findings of
state/regional assessments
and scientific literature
• Observed climate change
• Anticipated future changes
• Effects on forests
Incorporate new results from the Climate Change
Tree Atlas, LINKAGES, and LANDIS models

4. Vulnerability Assessment & Synthesis
Combine scientific literature, models, and expert
knowledge to describe forest ecosystem vulnerabilities
Forest
Vulnerability
& Confidence
Potential
Forest
Change
•Future climate
•Published research
•Model results
Local
Info
•Current forest
conditions
•Climate
trends
Expert
Knowledge &
Experience
(via workshop)

5. Longer Growing Season
Opportunity: Increased ecosystem productivity
Lieth 1973; Slide: A. Burton
Warm temperatures
= Greatest growth

6. Longer Growing Season, Altered Precip
Challenge: Reduced growth due to moisture stress
Lieth 1973; Slide: A. Burton
Variation based on
moisture availability

7. Longer Growing Season, Altered Precip
Lieth 1973; Slide: A. Burton
Variation based on
moisture availability
Challenge: Reduced growth due to moisture stress

8. Longer Growing Season, Altered Precip
Greater uncertainty about future precipitation, but increased
risk of summer moisture stress
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
Precipitation

9. Longer Growing Season, Altered Precip
Greater uncertainty about future precipitation, but increased
risk of summer moisture stress
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Warmer
temps
increase
water loss

10. Longer Growing Season, Altered Precip
Greater uncertainty about future precipitation, but increased
risk of summer moisture stress
Water loss from soils
(evaporation)
Water loss from trees
(transpiration)
Groundwater
recharge
Runoff
Precipitation
Warmer
temps
increase
water loss

11. Increased Carbon Dioxide
Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

12. Increased Carbon Dioxide
Opportunity: Increased productivity from CO2
• Increased photosynthesis
• Increased water use efficiency
Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

13. Increased Carbon Dioxide
Opportunity: Increased productivity*
• Increased photosynthesis
• Increased water use efficiency
*Effect likely limited:
• Limited sink strength
• Interactions with nitrogen
• Ozone damage
• Other reductions in productivity
(e.g., moisture stress, disturbance)
Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

14. Changes in Habitat Suitability
Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species
Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species

15. Changes in Habitat Suitability
Habitat based on:
Temperature
Precipitation
Elevation
Latitude
Soils
Slope & Aspect
Land use
Competition
Management

16. Changes in Habitat Suitability
Habitat based on:
Temperature
Precipitation
Elevation
Latitude
Soils
Slope & Aspect
Land use
Competition
Management
Climate Change Atlas:
What happens to tree and bird
habitat when climate changes?
•134 Trees
•147 Birds
Iverson et al. 2008; Atlas website: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/
www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

17. Changes in Habitat Suitability
Habitat based on:
Temperature
Precipitation
Elevation
Latitude
Soils
Slope & Aspect
White Pine: Current Habitat (modeled)
www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

18. Changes in Habitat Suitability
Habitat based on:
Temperature
Precipitation
Elevation
Latitude
Soils
Slope & Aspect
White Pine: Current Habitat (modeled)
PCM B1 (Less Change) GFDL A1FI (More Change)
www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

19. Changes in Habitat Suitability
Habitat based on:
Temperature
Precipitation
Elevation
Latitude
Soils
Slope & Aspect
Red Spruce: Current Habitat (modeled)
PCM B1 (Less Change) GFDL A1FI (More Change)
www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

20. Changes in Habitat Suitability
Habitat based on:
Temperature
Precipitation
Elevation
Latitude
Soils
Slope & Aspect
Black Oak: Current Habitat (modeled)
PCM B1 (Less Change) GFDL A1FI (More Change)
www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

21. Changes in Habitat Suitability
= species X
suitable habitat
50% Reduction in Habitat:
Habitat reduced equally Best habitats remain

22. Changes in Habitat Suitability
Challenge: Decline of northern/boreal species
Opportunity: Increased habitat for some species
Many common tree species are projected to have
reduced suitability in the future
Changes will occur slowly—not instant dieback
Mature and established trees should fare better
Immense lags to occupy habitats
Critical factors: competition, management, &
disturbance

23. Extreme Events
Challenge: Increased disturbance from extreme events
Heavy precipitation
Ice storms
Heat waves/droughts
Wind storms
Hurricanes
“Events” are not well
modeled
VTRANS/VT ANR
NY DEC
Dan Turner,
Cambridge
Fire Dept.

24. Interactions
Fire may increase:
 Warmer/drier summers
 Increased stress or mortality
from less suitable conditions
 Shift toward fire-associated
species like oaks and pines
Fire may not change:
 Spring/early summer moisture
 Current regeneration of more
mesic species
 Spatial patterns of land use
and fragmentation
 Fire suppression
Clark et al. 2014
Challenge: Increased wildfire potential

25. Interactions
Indirect: Stress from other
impacts increases susceptibility
Direct:
 Pests migrating northward
 Decreased probability of cold
lethal temperatures
 Accelerated lifecycles
Ayres and Lombardero 2000, Woods et al. 2005, Parmesan 2006, Dukes et al. 2009 Image: Frumhoff et al. 2007
HWA lethal temp: -20 to -30°F
Challenge: Increased forest insects & diseases

26. Interactions
Indirect: Stress or disturbance from other impacts can affect
the potential for invasion or success
Direct:
 Expanded ranges under warmer conditions
 Increased competitiveness from ability of some plants to
take advantage of elevated CO2
Dukes et al. 2009, Rustad et al. 2011; Images: Invasives Plants Atlas of New England (www.eddmaps.org)
Challenge: Increased forest insects & diseases

27. Second to last slide...
Generally Challenges
Reduced growth:
moisture stress
Decline of
northern/boreal species
Disturbance from
extreme events
Wildfire potential
Forests pests & disease
Invasive species
Generally Opportunities
Increased productivity:
longer growing season
Increased productivity:
more CO2
Increased habitat for
some species
What would
you add?

28. Last Slide: Location, Location, Location
Research and assessments describe broad
trends but local conditions and management
make the difference.