COMMERCIAL ECONOMIC ISSUES & TRENDS FORUM
•Télécharger en tant que PPTX, PDF•
1 j'aime•1,152 vues
2013: The “New Normal” Economic & CRE Trends at the Crossroads of Political Changes
Recommandé
Recommandé
Contenu connexe
Tendances
Tendances (12)
En vedette
En vedette (8)
Similaire à COMMERCIAL ECONOMIC ISSUES & TRENDS FORUM
Similaire à COMMERCIAL ECONOMIC ISSUES & TRENDS FORUM (20)
Plus de Nar Res
Plus de Nar Res (20)
Dernier
Dernier (20)
COMMERCIAL ECONOMIC ISSUES & TRENDS FORUM
- 1. LAWRENCE YUN, PhD Chief Economist, Sr. Vice President National Association of REALTORS® H. BLAINE WALKER, CRB, GRI President & CEO Walker & Co. Real Estate DANIEL SIGHT, CCIM, SIO RVice President, Broker Reece Commercial RANDY SCHEIDT, MAI, CCI M, GRIPresident Don R. Scheidt & Co. LINDA ST. PETER Corporate REALTOR® Prudential Connecticut Realty 2013: The “New Normal” Economic & CRE Trends at the Crossroads of Political Changes
- 2. How do you feel about the economy today vs. one year ago? A) Worse B) About the same C) A little better D) Big improvement REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 3. Record High Stock Prices (but only ½ of population have stock exposure) REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC Stock Price Index: Standard & Poor's 500 Composite 1941-43=10 1005009590858075706560 Source: Wall Street Journal /Haver Analytics 05/10/13 1600 1200 800 400 0 1600 1200 800 400 0
- 4. Falling Unemployment Rate REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC Civilian Unemployment Rate: 16 yr + SA, % 12111009080706050403020100 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics 05/10/13 10 8 6 4 2 10 8 6 4 2
- 5. But Very High Number of Part-time Workers REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC Work Part Time: For Economic Reasons: All Industry SA, Thous 12111009080706050403020100 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics 05/10/13 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000
- 6. Are employers in your market expanding? A) Yes, a lot B) A little C) Staying the course D) No; they are shrinking REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 11. D.C. Metro Total Jobs 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2000-Jan 2000-Aug 2001-Mar 2001-Oct 2002-May 2002-Dec 2003-Jul 2004-Feb 2004-Sep 2005-Apr 2005-Nov 2006-Jun 2007-Jan 2007-Aug 2008-Mar 2008-Oct 2009-May 2009-Dec 2010-Jul 2011-Feb 2011-Sep 2012-Apr 2012-Nov
- 13. Jobs in Commercial Construction and Contractors 2500 2600 2700 2800 2900 3000 3100 3200 3300 3400 3500 2001-Jan 2001-Jul 2002-Jan 2002-Jul 2003-Jan 2003-Jul 2004-Jan 2004-Jul 2005-Jan 2005-Jul 2006-Jan 2006-Jul 2007-Jan 2007-Jul 2008-Jan 2008-Jul 2009-Jan 2009-Jul 2010-Jan 2010-Jul 2011-Jan 2011-Jul 2012-Jan 2012-Jul 2013-Jan
- 14. How do you feel about the CRE markets today vs. one year ago? A) Worse B) About the same C) A little better D) Big improvement REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 15. 2012 Global CRE Investments Rise 4% Source: Real Capital Analytics REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 16. 15 of Top 30 Global Markets are in U.S. Source: Real Capital Analytics REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 17. Cross-border Capital Flows into U.S. Rise Source: Real Capital Analytics Yes, 1 8% No, 82 % 2012 REALTOR® CRE Sales to International Clients/Investors Source: REALTORS® 2012 CRE Lending Survey REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 18. U.S. Sales Rise 24% in 2012; 35% in 2013.Q1 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 billions Individual Portfolio Entity Source: Real Capital Analytics REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 19. REALTOR® Markets & Deal Size 21% 22% 26% 17% 12% 1% 2% < $250,000 $250,000 - $500,000 $500,000 - $1,000,000 $1,000,000 - $2,000,000 $2,000,000 - $5,000,000 $5,000,000 - $10,000,000 > $10,000,000 2013 CRE Lending Survey: Value of most recent sales transaction Source: NAR REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 20. Tale of Two Commercial Markets -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 2008.Q4 2009.Q1 2009.Q2 2009.Q3 2009.Q4 2010.Q1 2010.Q2 2010.Q3 2010.Q4 2011.Q1 2011.Q2 2011.Q3 2011.Q4 2012.Q1 2012.Q2 2012.Q3 2012.Q4 Sales Volume (YoY % Chg) Major CRE Markets Realtor CRE Markets Deals < $2M + Deals > $2M -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Sales Prices (YoY % Chg) Moody’s/RCA CPPI - Major Markets Realtor CRE Markets Source: NAR, Real Capital Analytics REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 21. Low Interest Rates Encourage Lending? A) Yes, low rates encourage more borrower to seek credit B) No, low rates do not excite the bankers from lending C) Unsure REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 22. Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve (zero rate policy to 2015 ?) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Fed Funds%
- 23. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet from Quantitative Easing 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 1-Aug-07 1-Aug-08 1-Aug-09 1-Aug-10 1-Aug-11 1-Aug-12 Total Assets $ million
- 24. Feeling Inflationary Pressure? Particularly in Property Management A) Virtually No inflation B) Rents rising modestly, though faster than Costs of operation C) Rents rising modestly, but slower than Costs of operation D) Both Rents and Costs are rising; Inflation is building REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 25. Consumer Price Inflation Less than 2% (% change from one year ago) -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2000-Jan 2000-Jul 2001-Jan 2001-Jul 2002-Jan 2002-Jul 2003-Jan 2003-Jul 2004-Jan 2004-Jul 2005-Jan 2005-Jul 2006-Jan 2006-Jul 2007-Jan 2007-Jul 2008-Jan 2008-Jul 2009-Jan 2009-Jul 2010-Jan 2010-Jul 2011-Jan 2011-Jul 2012-Jan 2012-Jul 2013-Jan Core Overall
- 26. Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth (Above 2% and On the Way to 3%) -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 2000-Jan 2000-Jul 2001-Jan 2001-Jul 2002-Jan 2002-Jul 2003-Jan 2003-Jul 2004-Jan 2004-Jul 2005-Jan 2005-Jul 2006-Jan 2006-Jul 2007-Jan 2007-Jul 2008-Jan 2008-Jul 2009-Jan 2009-Jul 2010-Jan 2010-Jul 2011-Jan 2011-Jul 2012-Jan 2012-Jul 2013-Jan Owners' Equivalent Rent Renters' Rent
- 27. Natural Gas Price (100% increase from one year ago) 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 2011 - Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 - Jul 2011 - Oct 2012 - Jan 2012 - Apr 2012 - Jul 2012 - Oct 2013 - Jan 2013 - Apr
- 28. Federal Government Tax Revenue and Spending 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 1970-Jan 1971-Jan 1972-Jan 1973-Jan 1974-Jan 1975-Jan 1976-Jan 1977-Jan 1978-Jan 1979-Jan 1980-Jan 1981-Jan 1982-Jan 1983-Jan 1984-Jan 1985-Jan 1986-Jan 1987-Jan 1988-Jan 1989-Jan 1990-Jan 1991-Jan 1992-Jan 1993-Jan 1994-Jan 1995-Jan 1996-Jan 1997-Jan 1998-Jan 1999-Jan 2000-Jan 2001-Jan 2002-Jan 2003-Jan 2004-Jan 2005-Jan 2006-Jan 2007-Jan 2008-Jan 2009-Jan 2010-Jan 2011-Jan 2012-Jan 2013-Jan Revenue Spending 12-month tally in $ million
- 30. How is the Credit Availability for Commercial Deals? A) Not a Problem B) Not good but better than a year ago C) Extremely difficult to obtain REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 31. Big Banks getting Bigger 54.30% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012 Top 10 Banks' Share of Total Deposits Source: Janicki and Prescott, BankRate.com
- 32. 8% 17% 25% 7% 6% 4% 18% 1% 11% 3% Current sources of financing for commercial deals National banks (“Big four”) Regional banks Local banks Credit unions Life insurance companies REITs Private investors Public companies Small Business Administration Other, please specify Source: NAR Small Banks Important to REALTORS®
- 33. Causes of Bank Capital Availability 22% 6% 27% 27% 7% 1% 10% Reduced net operating income, property values, and equity A slow-down in the pooling and packaging of CMBS by financial institutions Regulatory uncertainty for financial institutions New and proposed US legislative and regulatory initiatives Inability of banks to dispose of distressed assets European debt crisis Other, please specify The most relevant cause for lack of sufficient bank capital available for commercial lending Source: NAR, 2013 CRE Lending Survey REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 34. Legislative/Regulatory Issues REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC > Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act > Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) > Basel III > Qualified Commercial Real Estate Mortgage • Securitizers must hold 5% of CMBS issued unless: – 65% loan-to-value (60% if cap rate < 10-year swap + 300bp) – Debt service coverage ratio of 1.5x (stable history) to 1.7x or higher – Amortization period ≤ 20 years – 10-year minimum loan term – 80% of tenants must pay rent + taxes + insurance + maintenance – Borrower credit and income verification along with 2-year forecast – Collateral restriction limits subordinate financing – Securitizer must buy back bad loans in order to retain QCRE status – Just 0.4% of CMBS ever issued would qualify for first 3 stipulations
- 35. Legislative/Regulatory Impacts 59% 31% 8% 3% Decrease the flow of capital into U.S. real estate Have no effect on the flow of capital into U.S. real estate, but change the way in which transactions or loans are structured Have no effect on the flow of capital into U.S. real estate Increase the flow of capital into U.S. real estate Impacts of new/proposed U.S. legislative and regulatory initiatives Source: NAR, 2013 CRE Lending Survey REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 36. What is HOT in your market? A) Office Investment Sales B) Industrial Investment Sales C) Retail Investment Sales D) Are you kidding? Nothing is hot REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 37. Apartments Gain Market Share Office - CBD 14% Office - Sub 13% Flex 5% Warehouse 9% Mall & Other 11% Strip 7% Garden 19% Mid/Highrise 11% Full-Service 5% Limited Service 2% Land 4% Source: Real Capital Analytics Office $77.6B Industrial $36.9B Retail $52.8B Apartment $84.6B Hotel $19.6B Land $11.8B REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 38. Prices Advance – Apartments Lead 90.00 110.00 130.00 150.00 170.00 190.00 210.00 2001January April July October 2002January April July October 2003January April July October 2004January April July October 2005January April July October 2006January April July October 2007January April July October 2008January April July October 2009January April July October 2010January April July October 2011January April July October 2012January April July October Moody’s/RCA CPPI Apartment Retail Industrial Office Source: Real Capital Analytics REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 40. Large Spread between Cap Rates and Treasuries 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 10yr UST* Cap Rate Spread (bps) Source: Real Capital Analytics REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 41. Apartments and CBD Office Attracting investors as evidenced by low cap rates Source: Real Capital Analytics Suburban Office Industrial CBD Office 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Apartment Retail REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 42. What is HOT in your market? A) Office Leasing B) Industrial Leasing C) Retail Leasing D) Are you kidding? Nothing is hot REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 43. Commercial Fundamentals – Apartments REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 44. Commercial Fundamentals – Office REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 45. Commercial Fundamentals – Retail REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 46. Who is buying CRE in your market? A) Institutional/REIT Investors B) Private local investors C) National Banks D) Regional/Local Banks E) No one has any money to buy REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 47. $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 Cross-Border Inst'l/Eq Fund Listed/REITs Private User/other Billions Who Is Buying? Source: Real Capital Analytics 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 Cross-Border Inst'l/Eq Fund Listed/REITs Private User/other REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 48. Lending Environment 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Commercial Mortgage Rates Commercial Multifamily Fixed rate loans with 7-10 year terms; 3 mo. avg. Source: Real Capital Analytics 23% 20% 30% 27% 1% 15% 23% 32% 30% 1% Tightened significantly Tightened somewhat Not changed Eased somewhat Eased significantly Credit Availability 2012 2011 Source: NAR REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 49. Lending Environment – REALTOR® Markets 5% 4% 20% 14% 8% 7% 5% 0% 3% 33% Financing: 90% LTV Financing: 85% LTV Financing: 80% LTV Financing: 75% LTV Financing: 70% LTV Financing: 65% LTV Financing: 60% LTV Financing: 55% LTV Financing: 50% LTV 100% Cash CRE Financial Terms Source: NAR, 2013 CRE Lending REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC Yes, 52 % No, 48 % Sales transaction fail during past 12 months due to lack of financing?
- 50. Who Is Lending for Large Deals? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 Major Secondary Tertiary Lender Composition ($2.5M+) CMBS Financial Gov't Agency Insurance Int'l Bank Nat'l Bank Reg'l/Local Bank Pvt/Other Source: Real Capital Analytics REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 51. Who Is Lending in REALTOR® Markets? 9% 17% 25% 9% 8% 4% 13% 1% 12% 2% National banks (“Big four”) Regional banks Local banks Credit unions Life insurance companies REITs Private investors Public companies Small Business Administration Other, please specify 2013 REALTORS® Commercial Real Estate Lending Survey Source: NAR REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 52. For CRE investors, how is the debt market? A) Doing deals (a lot more paperwork) B) Still hard, but you can find it C) Not available D) I am trying to get rid of all my debt REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 53. Net Operating Income 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Increased 1% - 4% Increased 5% - 9% Increased 10% - 15% No Change Decreased 10% - 19% Decreased 20% - 24% Decreased 25% - 29% Decreased 30% - 34% Decreased 35% - 39% Decreased 40% - 49% Decreased 50% - 75% How did net operating income ($/SF) of sold/leased properties change from the 2007 to 2012? Source: NAR, 2013 CRE Lending Survey 35% REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 54. Valuation = Appraisals and/or BPOs REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC Yes, 36 % No, 64 % Sales transaction fail during past 12 months due to appraisals? Source: NAR, 2013 CRE Lending Survey Current valuation issues Impact of distressed properties Valuation of “high risk” business models
- 55. How optimistic are you about the CRE markets in 2014? A) Worse B) About the same C) A little better D) Big improvement REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 56. Apartments Markets REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 57. Office Markets REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 58. Retail Markets REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 59. Commercial Fundamentals – Industrial REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 60. Is there new development in your market? A) Yes, best in many years B) Only few projects C) What is development? REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 61. Commercial Construction/Development REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 2000-Q1 2000-Q2 2000-Q3 2000-Q4 2001-Q1 2001-Q2 2001-Q3 2001-Q4 2002-Q1 2002-Q2 2002-Q3 2002-Q4 2003-Q1 2003-Q2 2003-Q3 2003-Q4 2004-Q1 2004-Q2 2004-Q3 2004-Q4 2005-Q1 2005-Q2 2005-Q3 2005-Q4 2006-Q1 2006-Q2 2006-Q3 2006-Q4 2007-Q1 2007-Q2 2007-Q3 2007-Q4 2008-Q1 2008-Q2 2008-Q3 2008-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2013-Q1 Real Private Nonresidential Investment: Structures (% Chg Annual Rate) Source: BEA
- 62. Value of Construction Put-in-Place 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 2002-Jan 2002-Jul 2003-Jan 2003-Jul 2004-Jan 2004-Jul 2005-Jan 2005-Jul 2006-Jan 2006-Jul 2007-Jan 2007-Jul 2008-Jan 2008-Jul 2009-Jan 2009-Jul 2010-Jan 2010-Jul 2011-Jan 2011-Jul 2012-Jan 2012-Jul 2013-Jan Office Commercial
- 63. CRE REOs: How active are banks and special servicers in your market? A) Selling a lot B) They already sold it C) They are in a holding pattern D) I just got a new toaster to buy a bank REO REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 64. CRE Debt Maturities Peak Source: Trepp, LLC REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 65. When will CRE markets be HOT again? A) Beginning to feel HOT this year B) In 1 to 3 years C) In 4 to 5 years D) Never again (I am going to sell cars) REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 67. Green Street Advisor Price Index (Class-A Expensive Properties for REITs) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1998-Jan 1998-Sep 1999-May 2000-Jan 2000-Sep 2001-May 2002-Jan 2002-Sep 2003-May 2004-Jan 2004-Sep 2005-May 2006-Jan 2006-Sep 2007-May 2008-Jan 2008-Sep 2009-May 2010-Jan 2010-Sep 2011-May 2012-Jan 2012-Sep
- 68. Secondary Markets in Spotlight Source:RealCapitalAnalytics REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 69. How optimistic are you about the economy in 2014? A) Worse B) About the same C) A little better D) Big improvement REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 70. Economic Forecast 2011 2012 2013 Forecast 2014 Forecast GDP Growth +1.8% +2.1% +2.1% 3.0% Net New Jobs 1.6 million 2.2 million 2.0 million 2.4 million CPI Inflation 3.1% 2.1% 2.3% 3.4% 10-year Treasury 2.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.7% Fed Funds Rate 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
- 73. Consumer and Business Spending Growth -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Business Consumer %
- 74. U.S. Coal Production (Reaching 20-year Low) 70000000 75000000 80000000 85000000 90000000 95000000 10000000 1990-Jan 1991-Jan 1992-Jan 1993-Jan 1994-Jan 1995-Jan 1996-Jan 1997-Jan 1998-Jan 1999-Jan 2000-Jan 2001-Jan 2002-Jan 2003-Jan 2004-Jan 2005-Jan 2006-Jan 2007-Jan 2008-Jan 2009-Jan 2010-Jan 2011-Jan 2012-Jan 2013-Jan Short tons; 12-month average
- 75. Shrinking Trade Deficit ($ billion in 2005 dollars) -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
- 76. Commercial Forecast OFFICE 2013 I 2013 II 2013 III 2013 IV 2014 I 2013 2014 Vacancy Rate 16.0% 15.9% 15.7% 15.6% 15.6% 15.9% 15.7% Net Absorption ('000 sq. ft.) 10,268 6,310 8,955 8,440 13,128 33,973 42,349 Completions ('000 sq. ft.) 7,220 7,275 6,030 5,494 8,598 26,019 30,986 Rent Growth 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 2.6% 2.8% INDUSTRIAL 2013 I 2013 II 2013 III 2013 IV 2014 I 2013 2014 Vacancy Rate 9.6% 9.5% 9.5% 9.4% 9.2% 9.5% 9.0% Net Absorption ('000 sq. ft.) 24,354 21,919 38,966 36,531 20,695 121,770 103,475 Completions ('000 sq. ft.) 12,643 13,448 8,787 8,362 18,849 43,241 64,467 Rent Growth 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 2.3% 2.6% RETAIL 2013 I 2013 II 2013 III 2013 IV 2014 I 2013 2014 Vacancy Rate 10.7% 10.6% 10.6% 10.5% 10.4% 10.6% 10.1% Net Absorption ('000 sq. ft.) 4,297 2,865 1,910 2,865 5,899 11,935 16,387 Completions ('000 sq. ft.) 1,981 1,712 1,923 1,964 3,328 7,580 12,735 Rent Growth 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.1% MULTI-FAMILY 2013 I 2013 II 2013 III 2013 IV 2014 I 2013 2014 Vacancy Rate 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% Net Absorption (Units) 64,954 67,661 56,835 81,193 60,759 270,643 253,161 Completions (Units) 31,851 40,457 36,945 39,205 36,251 148,458 168,962 Rent Growth 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 4.6% 4.7% Sources: National Association of REALTORS® / Reis, Inc.REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 77. Will China overtake the U.S. in GDP? It depends on Singapore 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 1929 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 U.S. (growing 3%) China (growing 8%)
- 78. If you had $10 Million, what would you buy? A) Office B) Industrial C) Retail D) Multifamily E) Other F) If I had $10M, I’d move to Hawaii and hang it up REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC
- 79. Research Resources REALTORS® Commercial Economic Issues & Trends Forum | May 2013 | Washington, DC Web: www.realtor.org/research-and-statistics Blog: economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org Facebook: www.facebook.com/narresearchgroup Twitter: twitter.com/#!/NAR_Research