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Housing and Economic Outlook
        Midyear Meeting
      Marriot Wardman Park
          May 17, 2012

       By Lawrence Yun
Annual Existing Home Sales:
                 A Tough, Flat 4 years
8
    In million units
7      7.08
6               6.52

5
                       5.02
4                             4.12   4.34   4.18   4.26
3
2
1
0
      2005     2006    2007   2008   2009   2010   2011
Despite Second Home Sales Recovery
        In thousands
 4000
 3500
 3000
 2500
 2000                                                     Investment
 1500
 1000                                                     Vacation
  500
    0
        2005    2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011

Buy a condo for your college student

53% of REALTOR® members own a residential investment property
29% own a commercial property
19% own a vacation home
Owner-Occupancy Sales Falling
(All-Cash deals hiding the current dysfunctional mortgage market)
        In thousands
 6000

 5000

 4000

 3000

 2000

 1000

    0
          2005         2006   2007   2008    2009     2010     2011

QRM rules
Raising g-fees to fund non-housing issues
Banks hoarding cash! … from regulatory uncertainties and lawsuits?
50,000
                     55,000
                                       65,000
                                                70,000
                                                         75,000
                                                                  80,000




                              60,000
1980 - Q1
1981 - Q3
1983 - Q1
1984 - Q3
1986 - Q1
1987 - Q3
1989 - Q1
1990 - Q3
1992 - Q1
1993 - Q3
1995 - Q1
1996 - Q3
                                                                           Homeowners




1998 - Q1
1999 - Q3
2001 - Q1
2002 - Q3
2004 - Q1
2005 - Q3
2007 - Q1
                                                                                        Owner Occupied Housing Units




2008 - Q3
2010 - Q1
2011 - Q3
25,000
            29,000
            31,000
            33,000
            35,000
            39,000
            41,000




            27,000
            37,000
1980 - Q1
1981 - Q3
1983 - Q1
1984 - Q3
1986 - Q1
1987 - Q3
1989 - Q1
1990 - Q3
1992 - Q1
1993 - Q3
1995 - Q1
1996 - Q3
1998 - Q1
                     Rental Households




1999 - Q3
2001 - Q1
2002 - Q3
2004 - Q1
2005 - Q3
2007 - Q1
                                         Rental Occupied Housing Units




2008 - Q3
2010 - Q1
2011 - Q3
59
            60
            61
            62
            64
            65
            66
            67
            69
            70




            63
            68
             %
1965 - Q1
1967 - Q1
1969 - Q1
1971 - Q1
1973 - Q1
1975 - Q1
1977 - Q1
1979 - Q1
1981 - Q1
1983 - Q1
1985 - Q1
1987 - Q1
1989 - Q1
1991 - Q1
                 (Lowest in 15 years)




1993 - Q1
1995 - Q1
1997 - Q1
1999 - Q1
2001 - Q1
2003 - Q1
2005 - Q1
                                        Homeownership Rate at 65.4%




2007 - Q1
2009 - Q1
2011 - Q1
2012 First Quarter Sales: Strongest in 5 years
6,000,000

5,000,000

4,000,000
                                          2008
                                          2009
3,000,000
                                          2010
2,000,000                                 2011
                                          2012
1,000,000

       0
            Q1    Q2       Q3      Q4
Pending Contracts
  Point to Strongest Second Quarter in 5 years
115                                  Homebuyer Tax Credit
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
  2007 - 2007 - 2008 - 2008 - 2009 - 2009 - 2010 - 2010 - 2011 - 2011 - 2012 -
   Jan    Jul    Jan    Jul    Jan    Jul    Jan    Jul    Jan    July   Jan

 Source: NAR
10
                                                  30
                                                       40
                                                            50




                                             20




-40
      -30
             -20
                   -10
                         0
            2002 - Jan
            2002 - Jul
            2003 - Jan
            2003 - Jul
            2004 - Jan
            2004 - Jul
            2005 - Jan
            2005 - Jul
            2006 - Jan
            2006 - Jul
            2007 - Jan
            2007 - Jul
            2008 - Jan
            2008 - Jul
            2009 - Jan
            2009 - Jul
                                                                 (Year-over-Year % changes)




            2010 - Jan
            2010 - Jul
            2011 - Jan
            2011 - Jul
            2012 - Jan
                                                                                              Pending and Closings of Existing Homes




                         Closing
                                   Pending
Improving Factors for Higher Sales in 2012:

1.  High Affordability and Job Creation
2.  Solid stock market recovery from 2008
3.  Rising rents and a larger pool of qualified renters
4.  Pent-up release of Household Formation
   • Rising demand for ownership and rentals as
       young-adults move out of parent’s basement
5. Smart money chasing real estate (i.e., investors)
6. Consumer confidence in buying an appreciating
    asset
50
            70
                 90
                      110
                            130
                                  150
                                        170
                                              190
                                                    210
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
                                                          Best Affordability Conditions




2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
1,000
                                        1,500
                                                2,000
                                                        2,500
                                                                3,000
                                                                        3,500




                   500
               0
 2005 - Jan
 2005 - Jun
2005 - Nov
 2006 - Apr
 2006 - Sep
 2007 - Feb
  2007 - Jul
2007 - Dec
2008 - May
 2008 - Oct
2009 - Mar
2009 - Aug
 2010 - Jan
 2010 - Jun
2010 - Nov
 2011 - Apr
 2011 - Sep
                                                                                   S&P 500 (Almost 100% from low point)




 2012 - Feb
                                                                                NASDAQ (More than 100% increase from low point)




                                  S&P 500
                         NASDAQ
Mind

                                                                                                  GAP
                                                                                                  the




                                                                                                                                                                 2012 - Jan
                     (Recovered half of jobs lost a few years ago, but still down by 10 million




                                                                                                                                                                 2010 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 2008 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 2006 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 2004 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 2002 - Jan
                                      compared to long-term projections)
Total Payroll Jobs




                                                                                                                                                                 2000 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 1998 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 1996 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 1994 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 1992 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 1990 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 1988 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 1986 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 1984 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 1982 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 1980 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 1978 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 1976 - Jan
                                                                                                  In millions                                                    1974 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 1972 - Jan
                                                                                                                                                                 1970 - Jan

                                                                                       150
                                                                                                          140
                                                                                                                130
                                                                                                                      120
                                                                                                                            110
                                                                                                                                  100
                                                                                                                                        90
                                                                                                                                             80
                                                                                                                                                  70
                                                                                                                                                       60
                                                                                                                                                            50
50
                                                                    52
                                                                         54
                                                                              56
                                                                                   58
                                                                                                 60
                                                                                                              62
                                                                                                                   64
                                                  1948 - Jan

                                                                                                                   66 %
                                                  1951 - Jan
                                                  1954 - Jan
                                                  1957 - Jan
                                                  1960 - Jan
                                                  1963 - Jan
                                                  1966 - Jan
                                                  1969 - Jan
                                                  1972 - Jan
                                                                                    Father-Knows-Best Years


                                                  1975 - Jan
                                                  1978 - Jan
                                                  1981 - Jan
                                                  1984 - Jan
                                                  1987 - Jan
                                                  1990 - Jan

Source: BLS, among those 16 years old and older
                                                  1993 - Jan
                                                  1996 - Jan
                                                  1999 - Jan
                                                  2002 - Jan
                                                                                                                            Reverting Back to Old Days?




                                                  2005 - Jan
                                                  2008 - Jan
                                                                                                                          Employment-to-Population Ratio:




                                                  2011 - Jan
0
                               5
                                                          10
                                                               15
                                                                    20
                                                                                                                 30
              1948 - Jan


                                                                                                             million
              1951 - Jan
              1954 - Jan
              1957 - Jan




Source: BLS
              1960 - Jan
              1963 - Jan
              1966 - Jan
              1969 - Jan
              1972 - Jan
                                                                         25 Manufacturing and Construction




              1975 - Jan
              1978 - Jan
                                                                                                                                        vs.




              1981 - Jan
              1984 - Jan
              1987 - Jan
              1990 - Jan
              1993 - Jan
              1996 - Jan
              1999 - Jan
              2002 - Jan
              2005 - Jan
                                                                                                                         Education and Healthcare Services




                               Education and Healthcare




              2008 - Jan
                                                                                                                       Jobs: Manufacturing and Construction




              2011 - Jan
%




                            10
                            20
                            30
                            40
                            50
                            60
                            70
                            80
                            90




                             0
                           100
              1948 - Jan
              1951 - Jan
              1954 - Jan
              1957 - Jan




Source: BLS
              1960 - Jan
              1963 - Jan
              1966 - Jan
              1969 - Jan
              1972 - Jan
              1975 - Jan
              1978 - Jan
              1981 - Jan
              1984 - Jan
              1987 - Jan
              1990 - Jan
              1993 - Jan
                           Women
                                   Men




              1996 - Jan
              1999 - Jan
                                         Labor Force Participation Rate




              2002 - Jan
              2005 - Jan
              2008 - Jan
              2011 - Jan
-1000
        -800
               -600
                       -400
                              -200
                                     0
                                         200
                                               400
                                                             600
                      2005 - Jan
                      2005 - Apr
                       2005 - Jul
                      2005 - Oct
                      2006 - Jan
                      2006 - Apr
                                                     In thousands

                       2006 - Jul
                      2006 - Oct
                      2007 - Jan
                      2007 - Apr
                       2007 - Jul
                      2007 - Oct
                      2008 - Jan
                      2008 - Apr
                       2008 - Jul
                      2008 - Oct
                      2009 - Jan
                      2009 - Apr
                       2009 - Jul
                      2009 - Oct
                      2010 - Jan
                      2010 - Apr
                       2010 - Jul
                      2010 - Oct
                      2011 - Jan
                                                                                                           Monthly Payroll Job Gains …




                      2011 - Apr
                       2011 - Jul
                      2011 - Oct
                                                                    paving the way for higher home sales




                      2012 - Jan
                      2012 - Apr
0
                 1
                     2
                         3
                             4
                                 5




     -1
2000 - Jan
2000 - Jul
2001 - Jan
2001 - Jul
2002 - Jan
2002 - Jul
2003 - Jan
2003 - Jul
2004 - Jan
2004 - Jul
2005 - Jan
2005 - Jul
2006 - Jan
2006 - Jul
2007 - Jan
2007 - Jul
                                                                                                          Rent Growth




2008 - Jan
                                     % change from one year ago




2008 - Jul
2009 - Jan
2009 - Jul
2010 - Jan
2010 - Jul
                                                                  (Component from Consumer Price Index)




2011 - Jan
2011 - Jul
2012 - Jan
Visible Inventory of Homes
 (6-year low for Existing Homes and 50-year low for New Homes)

4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
 500,000
       0
            2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
            - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan
                                      Existing    New
 Source: NAR, Census
0.0
                    4.0
                    6.0
                    8.0
                   10.0




                    2.0
                   12.0
       2000 - Q1
       2000 - Q3
       2001 - Q1
       2001 - Q3
       2002 - Q1
       2002 - Q3
       2003 - Q1
       2003 - Q3
       2004 - Q1
       2004 - Q3
       2005 - Q1
       2005 - Q3
                          U.S.




U.S.
       2006 - Q1
       2006 - Q3
       2007 - Q1
       2007 - Q3
       2008 - Q1
       2008 - Q3
                                                                                                   Shadow Inventory




       2009 - Q1
       2009 - Q3
       2010 - Q1
       2010 - Q3
                                 (Seriously Delinquent: 90+ days late or in foreclosure process)




       2011 - Q1
        2011-Q3
500
                                             1000
                                                    1500
                                                                         2000
                                                                                2500




                                   0
                      2000 - Jan
                      2000 - Jul
                      2001 - Jan
                      2001 - Jul
                      2002 - Jan




Source: Census, HUD
                      2002 - Jul
                      2003 - Jan
                      2003 - Jul
                                                                                  Thousand units (annualized)




                      2004 - Jan
                      2004 - Jul
                      2005 - Jan
                                                                                                          multifamily




                      2005 - Jul
                      2006 - Jan
                      2006 - Jul
                      2007 - Jan
                      2007 - Jul
                                                                                                   single-family
                                                                                                                                                                                Housing Starts




                      2008 - Jan
                      2008 - Jul
                      2009 - Jan
                      2009 - Jul
                      2010 - Jan
                      2010 - Jul
                      2011 - Jan
                                                                                                                        (Well Below 50-year average of 1.5 million each year)




                      2011 - Jul
                      2012 - Jan
                                                     Long-term Average
Home Price:
                   Big Declines from 2006 to 2008
                  Small Declines from 2009 to 2011
                             (index set at 100 from 2000)
                                  Case-Shiller     FHFA
220

200

180

160

140

120

100
      2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
      - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan
Latest Home Price Trend in early 2012
      (Lagging Indicator … reflects price negotiations from late 2011)


• NAR: Up in more than half of local markets

• FHFA: Up in deep-middle America, New England, South
  Atlantic, Mountain states


• Case-Shiller: Up in Charlotte, Dallas, Las
  Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San
  Francisco, Tampa, Washington D.C.

• Core Logic and LPS: many markets with price gains
Listing Price Changes
     Market                                                 % Change from
                                                            March 2011 to March 2012
     Miami                                                  Double-digit gains

     Phoenix                                                Double-digit gains

     San Antonio                                            Double-digit gains

     Washington D.C.                                        Double-digit gains


Please note that a part of the price change may reflect more upper-end homes being listed and fewer lower-end homes .
Therefore, not all of the price change is due to price appreciation of a particular property.

      Source: Realtor.com
REALTOR® Confidence Index
                                       Showing Signs of Recovery:
                                              5 year-high

60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
 0.0
                               Oct08




                                                               Oct09




                                                                                               Oct10




                                                                                                                               Oct11
               Apr08




                                               Apr09




                                                                               Apr10




                                                                                                               Apr11
                       Jul08




                                                       Jul09




                                                                                       Jul10




                                                                                                                       Jul11
       Jan08




                                       Jan09




                                                                       Jan10




                                                                                                       Jan11




                                                                                                                                       Jan12
                               Single Family                    Townhouses                       Condos
Prepare for Early Move (2014)
                 by Federal Reserve
                           Fed Funds          30-year Mortgage
    %
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
    2005    2006    2007     2008      2009     2010   2011     2012 2013 2014
                                                              forecast forecast forecast


    Modestly higher rates could help home sales as banks re-staff mortgage
    work for home purchase applications and less refinance applications.
Consumer Price Inflation
                (Above Fed’s preferred 2% core inflation rate)
                                 Rent     All Items    Core
     %
5

4

3

2

1

0
         2005     2006    2007     2008     2009      2010    2011     2012     2013
-1                                                                   forecast forecast
Annual Membership
               (NRDS count at year-end)

1,500,000
1,400,000
1,300,000
1,200,000
1,100,000
1,000,000
  900,000
  800,000
  700,000
  600,000
  500,000
  400,000
  300,000
  200,000
  100,000
        0


                                          29
Annual Forecast
                      2011           2012                 2013
                      History        Forecast             Forecast
Existing Home Sales 4.26 million     4.6 to 4.7 million   4.7 to 4.8 million

New Home Sales        304,000        400,000              530,000

Housing Starts        610,000        770,000              970,000

Existing Home Price   $166,100       $168,100             $173,100
(Growth)              (-3.9%)        (+1.2%)              (+3.1%)
GDP Growth            +1.8%          +2.4%                +3.1%

Payroll Job Gains     +1.7 million   +2.2 million         +2.5 million

Fed Funds Rate        0.1%           0.1%                 0.1%

30-yr Mortgage        4.7%           4.2%                 4.9%
Risks to Forecast
• Washington Policy
  –   QRM 20% down payment requirement?
  –   Other Dodd-Frank rules? Help or Hurt?
  –   Trim mortgage interest deduction?
  –   Capital gains tax on home sale?

  – Fiscal Cliff on January 1, 2013 … if no new
    compromised budget, then:
       • Automatic deep cuts to military and domestic spending
       • Automatic higher taxes
       • 3% shaved off GDP
Wealth Distribution
  (Federal Reserve data on median net worth, with 2011 NAR estimate)

  $250,000
  $200,000                                                            1998
  $150,000                                                            2001
  $100,000                                                            2004
   $50,000                                                            2007
        $0                                                            2011 estimate
                       Renter                    Owner


Big Drivers of Future Income and Wealth will be:
    • Tax and Spend policy           • Voting
    • Graduate from high school      • Stay in school
    • Ability to buy a home          • Buy a home within means
 Data Source for Median Net Worth: Federal Reserve, NAR estimate for 2011

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Housing and Economic Outlook: Residential Forum, NAR Midyear Meeting

  • 1. Housing and Economic Outlook Midyear Meeting Marriot Wardman Park May 17, 2012 By Lawrence Yun
  • 2. Annual Existing Home Sales: A Tough, Flat 4 years 8 In million units 7 7.08 6 6.52 5 5.02 4 4.12 4.34 4.18 4.26 3 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • 3. Despite Second Home Sales Recovery In thousands 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 Investment 1500 1000 Vacation 500 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Buy a condo for your college student 53% of REALTOR® members own a residential investment property 29% own a commercial property 19% own a vacation home
  • 4. Owner-Occupancy Sales Falling (All-Cash deals hiding the current dysfunctional mortgage market) In thousands 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 QRM rules Raising g-fees to fund non-housing issues Banks hoarding cash! … from regulatory uncertainties and lawsuits?
  • 5. 50,000 55,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 60,000 1980 - Q1 1981 - Q3 1983 - Q1 1984 - Q3 1986 - Q1 1987 - Q3 1989 - Q1 1990 - Q3 1992 - Q1 1993 - Q3 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q3 Homeowners 1998 - Q1 1999 - Q3 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q3 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q3 2007 - Q1 Owner Occupied Housing Units 2008 - Q3 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q3
  • 6. 25,000 29,000 31,000 33,000 35,000 39,000 41,000 27,000 37,000 1980 - Q1 1981 - Q3 1983 - Q1 1984 - Q3 1986 - Q1 1987 - Q3 1989 - Q1 1990 - Q3 1992 - Q1 1993 - Q3 1995 - Q1 1996 - Q3 1998 - Q1 Rental Households 1999 - Q3 2001 - Q1 2002 - Q3 2004 - Q1 2005 - Q3 2007 - Q1 Rental Occupied Housing Units 2008 - Q3 2010 - Q1 2011 - Q3
  • 7. 59 60 61 62 64 65 66 67 69 70 63 68 % 1965 - Q1 1967 - Q1 1969 - Q1 1971 - Q1 1973 - Q1 1975 - Q1 1977 - Q1 1979 - Q1 1981 - Q1 1983 - Q1 1985 - Q1 1987 - Q1 1989 - Q1 1991 - Q1 (Lowest in 15 years) 1993 - Q1 1995 - Q1 1997 - Q1 1999 - Q1 2001 - Q1 2003 - Q1 2005 - Q1 Homeownership Rate at 65.4% 2007 - Q1 2009 - Q1 2011 - Q1
  • 8. 2012 First Quarter Sales: Strongest in 5 years 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 2008 2009 3,000,000 2010 2,000,000 2011 2012 1,000,000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
  • 9. Pending Contracts Point to Strongest Second Quarter in 5 years 115 Homebuyer Tax Credit 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 2007 - 2007 - 2008 - 2008 - 2009 - 2009 - 2010 - 2010 - 2011 - 2011 - 2012 - Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan July Jan Source: NAR
  • 10. 10 30 40 50 20 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul (Year-over-Year % changes) 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan Pending and Closings of Existing Homes Closing Pending
  • 11. Improving Factors for Higher Sales in 2012: 1. High Affordability and Job Creation 2. Solid stock market recovery from 2008 3. Rising rents and a larger pool of qualified renters 4. Pent-up release of Household Formation • Rising demand for ownership and rentals as young-adults move out of parent’s basement 5. Smart money chasing real estate (i.e., investors) 6. Consumer confidence in buying an appreciating asset
  • 12. 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Best Affordability Conditions 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
  • 13. 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 500 0 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jun 2005 - Nov 2006 - Apr 2006 - Sep 2007 - Feb 2007 - Jul 2007 - Dec 2008 - May 2008 - Oct 2009 - Mar 2009 - Aug 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jun 2010 - Nov 2011 - Apr 2011 - Sep S&P 500 (Almost 100% from low point) 2012 - Feb NASDAQ (More than 100% increase from low point) S&P 500 NASDAQ
  • 14. Mind GAP the 2012 - Jan (Recovered half of jobs lost a few years ago, but still down by 10 million 2010 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2006 - Jan 2004 - Jan 2002 - Jan compared to long-term projections) Total Payroll Jobs 2000 - Jan 1998 - Jan 1996 - Jan 1994 - Jan 1992 - Jan 1990 - Jan 1988 - Jan 1986 - Jan 1984 - Jan 1982 - Jan 1980 - Jan 1978 - Jan 1976 - Jan In millions 1974 - Jan 1972 - Jan 1970 - Jan 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50
  • 15. 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 1948 - Jan 66 % 1951 - Jan 1954 - Jan 1957 - Jan 1960 - Jan 1963 - Jan 1966 - Jan 1969 - Jan 1972 - Jan Father-Knows-Best Years 1975 - Jan 1978 - Jan 1981 - Jan 1984 - Jan 1987 - Jan 1990 - Jan Source: BLS, among those 16 years old and older 1993 - Jan 1996 - Jan 1999 - Jan 2002 - Jan Reverting Back to Old Days? 2005 - Jan 2008 - Jan Employment-to-Population Ratio: 2011 - Jan
  • 16. 0 5 10 15 20 30 1948 - Jan million 1951 - Jan 1954 - Jan 1957 - Jan Source: BLS 1960 - Jan 1963 - Jan 1966 - Jan 1969 - Jan 1972 - Jan 25 Manufacturing and Construction 1975 - Jan 1978 - Jan vs. 1981 - Jan 1984 - Jan 1987 - Jan 1990 - Jan 1993 - Jan 1996 - Jan 1999 - Jan 2002 - Jan 2005 - Jan Education and Healthcare Services Education and Healthcare 2008 - Jan Jobs: Manufacturing and Construction 2011 - Jan
  • 17. % 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 100 1948 - Jan 1951 - Jan 1954 - Jan 1957 - Jan Source: BLS 1960 - Jan 1963 - Jan 1966 - Jan 1969 - Jan 1972 - Jan 1975 - Jan 1978 - Jan 1981 - Jan 1984 - Jan 1987 - Jan 1990 - Jan 1993 - Jan Women Men 1996 - Jan 1999 - Jan Labor Force Participation Rate 2002 - Jan 2005 - Jan 2008 - Jan 2011 - Jan
  • 18. -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 2005 - Jan 2005 - Apr 2005 - Jul 2005 - Oct 2006 - Jan 2006 - Apr In thousands 2006 - Jul 2006 - Oct 2007 - Jan 2007 - Apr 2007 - Jul 2007 - Oct 2008 - Jan 2008 - Apr 2008 - Jul 2008 - Oct 2009 - Jan 2009 - Apr 2009 - Jul 2009 - Oct 2010 - Jan 2010 - Apr 2010 - Jul 2010 - Oct 2011 - Jan Monthly Payroll Job Gains … 2011 - Apr 2011 - Jul 2011 - Oct paving the way for higher home sales 2012 - Jan 2012 - Apr
  • 19. 0 1 2 3 4 5 -1 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul Rent Growth 2008 - Jan % change from one year ago 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul (Component from Consumer Price Index) 2011 - Jan 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan
  • 20. Visible Inventory of Homes (6-year low for Existing Homes and 50-year low for New Homes) 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan Existing New Source: NAR, Census
  • 21. 0.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 2.0 12.0 2000 - Q1 2000 - Q3 2001 - Q1 2001 - Q3 2002 - Q1 2002 - Q3 2003 - Q1 2003 - Q3 2004 - Q1 2004 - Q3 2005 - Q1 2005 - Q3 U.S. U.S. 2006 - Q1 2006 - Q3 2007 - Q1 2007 - Q3 2008 - Q1 2008 - Q3 Shadow Inventory 2009 - Q1 2009 - Q3 2010 - Q1 2010 - Q3 (Seriously Delinquent: 90+ days late or in foreclosure process) 2011 - Q1 2011-Q3
  • 22. 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 0 2000 - Jan 2000 - Jul 2001 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2002 - Jan Source: Census, HUD 2002 - Jul 2003 - Jan 2003 - Jul Thousand units (annualized) 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jul 2005 - Jan multifamily 2005 - Jul 2006 - Jan 2006 - Jul 2007 - Jan 2007 - Jul single-family Housing Starts 2008 - Jan 2008 - Jul 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jul 2010 - Jan 2010 - Jul 2011 - Jan (Well Below 50-year average of 1.5 million each year) 2011 - Jul 2012 - Jan Long-term Average
  • 23. Home Price: Big Declines from 2006 to 2008 Small Declines from 2009 to 2011 (index set at 100 from 2000) Case-Shiller FHFA 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan - Jan
  • 24. Latest Home Price Trend in early 2012 (Lagging Indicator … reflects price negotiations from late 2011) • NAR: Up in more than half of local markets • FHFA: Up in deep-middle America, New England, South Atlantic, Mountain states • Case-Shiller: Up in Charlotte, Dallas, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Tampa, Washington D.C. • Core Logic and LPS: many markets with price gains
  • 25. Listing Price Changes Market % Change from March 2011 to March 2012 Miami Double-digit gains Phoenix Double-digit gains San Antonio Double-digit gains Washington D.C. Double-digit gains Please note that a part of the price change may reflect more upper-end homes being listed and fewer lower-end homes . Therefore, not all of the price change is due to price appreciation of a particular property. Source: Realtor.com
  • 26. REALTOR® Confidence Index Showing Signs of Recovery: 5 year-high 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Oct08 Oct09 Oct10 Oct11 Apr08 Apr09 Apr10 Apr11 Jul08 Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Single Family Townhouses Condos
  • 27. Prepare for Early Move (2014) by Federal Reserve Fed Funds 30-year Mortgage % 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 forecast forecast forecast Modestly higher rates could help home sales as banks re-staff mortgage work for home purchase applications and less refinance applications.
  • 28. Consumer Price Inflation (Above Fed’s preferred 2% core inflation rate) Rent All Items Core % 5 4 3 2 1 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -1 forecast forecast
  • 29. Annual Membership (NRDS count at year-end) 1,500,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 29
  • 30. Annual Forecast 2011 2012 2013 History Forecast Forecast Existing Home Sales 4.26 million 4.6 to 4.7 million 4.7 to 4.8 million New Home Sales 304,000 400,000 530,000 Housing Starts 610,000 770,000 970,000 Existing Home Price $166,100 $168,100 $173,100 (Growth) (-3.9%) (+1.2%) (+3.1%) GDP Growth +1.8% +2.4% +3.1% Payroll Job Gains +1.7 million +2.2 million +2.5 million Fed Funds Rate 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 30-yr Mortgage 4.7% 4.2% 4.9%
  • 31. Risks to Forecast • Washington Policy – QRM 20% down payment requirement? – Other Dodd-Frank rules? Help or Hurt? – Trim mortgage interest deduction? – Capital gains tax on home sale? – Fiscal Cliff on January 1, 2013 … if no new compromised budget, then: • Automatic deep cuts to military and domestic spending • Automatic higher taxes • 3% shaved off GDP
  • 32. Wealth Distribution (Federal Reserve data on median net worth, with 2011 NAR estimate) $250,000 $200,000 1998 $150,000 2001 $100,000 2004 $50,000 2007 $0 2011 estimate Renter Owner Big Drivers of Future Income and Wealth will be: • Tax and Spend policy • Voting • Graduate from high school • Stay in school • Ability to buy a home • Buy a home within means Data Source for Median Net Worth: Federal Reserve, NAR estimate for 2011