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Productivity on the Island of
Ireland:
A tale of three economies
NERI Seminar Series Belfast,
April 11th 2019
Paul Mac Fly...
Historical Trends
62
71
63
73
80
75
78 79 78 78 76
51
46
52
59
65
79
89
97 95
100
105
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1926 1947 1960...
Gross Value Added per Hour ROI
and NI to EU15 ratio
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
180.0%
ROI NI
Regional Trends
Regional Trends
Region/State % of EU15 Average
Dublin 208.6
South-West 156.8
Belfast 136.8
ROI 128.0
Mid-West 97.9
Mid-Eas...
Regional Trends
Sectoral Output
Sectoral Employment
Sectoral Productivity
Recent Trends – FDI (2014)
GDP and GNI* per Hour Worked
to EU15 Ratio
Recent Trends – FDI (ROI)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
R...
Structure of Output
ROI Domestic EU 15 Domestic NI
Sector 2012 2014 2012 2014 2012 2014
Manufacturing 12.7 13.6 23.3 23 23...
Structure of Employment
ROI Domestic
(%)
EU 15 Domestic (%) NI (%)
Sector 2012 2014 2012 2014 2012 2014
Manufacturing 9.5 ...
Foreign Controlled Structure
ROI Foreign (%) EU 15 Foreign (%)
Sector Employment Output Employment Output
Manufacturing 25...
ROI Foreign
ROI Domestic
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Total business economy Manufacturing Wholesale and retail
trade; repair of motor
vehi...
ROI Domestic
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2012 2014
Ireland EU15 Ratio ROI to EU15
Three economies?
Sector Domestic ROI ROI Foreign NI
Total 53,527 179,603 45,357
Manufacturing 61,492 330,220 56,331
Wholes...
Policy?
•NI Corp tax policy misplaced – range of policy levers available to NI
•FDI – Quality not quantity, other areas mo...
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Slides from NERI Seminar Belfast: Productivity on the Island of Ireland: A tale of three economies

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Slides from NERI Seminar Belfast: Productivity on the Island of Ireland: A tale of three economies by Paul Mac Flynn and Paul Goldrick-Kelly held on 11th April, 2019.

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Slides from NERI Seminar Belfast: Productivity on the Island of Ireland: A tale of three economies

  1. 1. Productivity on the Island of Ireland: A tale of three economies NERI Seminar Series Belfast, April 11th 2019 Paul Mac Flynn and Paul Goldrick-Kelly Nevin Economic Research Institute Paul.MacFlynn@nerinstitute.net paulgk@nerinstitute.net www.NERInstitute.net
  2. 2. Historical Trends 62 71 63 73 80 75 78 79 78 78 76 51 46 52 59 65 79 89 97 95 100 105 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1926 1947 1960 1973 1986 1991 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: Birnie & Hitchens (2001) NI ROI
  3. 3. Gross Value Added per Hour ROI and NI to EU15 ratio 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% 160.0% 180.0% ROI NI
  4. 4. Regional Trends
  5. 5. Regional Trends Region/State % of EU15 Average Dublin 208.6 South-West 156.8 Belfast 136.8 ROI 128.0 Mid-West 97.9 Mid-East 91.3 West 90.6 South-East 85.0 NI 75.0 East of Northern Ireland 70.0 Midland 63.8 West and South of Northern Ireland 63.4 Outer Belfast 61.1 Border 60.5 North of Northern Ireland 58.2
  6. 6. Regional Trends
  7. 7. Sectoral Output
  8. 8. Sectoral Employment
  9. 9. Sectoral Productivity
  10. 10. Recent Trends – FDI (2014)
  11. 11. GDP and GNI* per Hour Worked to EU15 Ratio
  12. 12. Recent Trends – FDI (ROI) 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ROI to EU15 Foreign Owned ROI to EU15 Domestic Ratio
  13. 13. Structure of Output ROI Domestic EU 15 Domestic NI Sector 2012 2014 2012 2014 2012 2014 Manufacturing 12.7 13.6 23.3 23 23.3 24.5 Wholesale and retail 21.5 19.4 18.0 17.9 28.4 26.1 Transportation and storage 11.8 11.1 8.7 8.5 7.5 7.7 Accommodation and food 7.3 5.9 4.1 4.0 3.7 4.0 Information and communication 5.5 6.2 7.5 7.3 5.3 5.6 Real estate activities 2.0 2.1 4.9 4.8 3.0 2.6 Professional, scientific and technical 13.0 12.8 11.1 11.5 6.3 7.0 Administrative and support service 6.8 13.9 7.1 7.8 5.8 6.5 Other 19.4 15.0 15.3 15.2 16.8 16
  14. 14. Structure of Employment ROI Domestic (%) EU 15 Domestic (%) NI (%) Sector 2012 2014 2012 2014 2012 2014 Manufacturing 9.5 11.8 19.1 18.6 17.6 18.3 Wholesale and retail 29.3 27.0 24.5 23.9 31.1 29.9 Transportation and storage 7.9 8.7 7.9 7.7 5.8 6.1 Accommodation and food 17.1 14.7 9.1 9.3 10.0 10.6 Information and communication 4.3 4.7 4.3 4.5 4.0 4.3 Real estate activities 2.6 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.1 Professional, scientific and technical 10.7 10.8 9.7 10.0 6.3 6.2 Administrative and support service 8.6 7.9 10.3 10.9 11.2 11.0 Other 10.0 12.3 12.7 12.6 12.0 11.3
  15. 15. Foreign Controlled Structure ROI Foreign (%) EU 15 Foreign (%) Sector Employment Output Employment Output Manufacturing 25.6 47.0 32.4 33.2 Wholesale and retail 27.6 11.8 25.6 22.0 Transportation and storage 3.5 1.3 6.3 5.4 Accommodation and food 8.0 1.1 4.6 1.7 Information and communication 12.2 30.7 7.3 12.5 Real estate activities 1.3 0.5 1.0 1.0 Professional, scientific and technical 6.4 2.5 6.2 7.5 Administrative and support service 12.5 3.4 11.0 7.6 Other 2.9 1.8 5.0 9.1
  16. 16. ROI Foreign
  17. 17. ROI Domestic 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Total business economy Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles Transportation and storage Accommodation and food service activities Information and communication Real estate activities Professional, scientific and technical activities Administrative and support service activities 2012 2014
  18. 18. ROI Domestic 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 2012 2014 Ireland EU15 Ratio ROI to EU15
  19. 19. Three economies? Sector Domestic ROI ROI Foreign NI Total 53,527 179,603 45,357 Manufacturing 61,492 330,220 56,331 Wholesale and retail 38,474 76,555 40,193 Transportation and storage 67,887 67,289 56,855 Accommodation and food 21,576 23,856 16,748 Information and communication 69,726 452,418 50,654 Real estate activities 55,137 62,488 54,103 Professional, scientific and technical 63,576 69,880 51,252 Administrative and support service 94,595 48,866 23,213
  20. 20. Policy? •NI Corp tax policy misplaced – range of policy levers available to NI •FDI – Quality not quantity, other areas more important than corp tax •FDI can’t be about ‘buying in’ success - absorptive capacity matters • FDI most successful when domestic firms integrate •Skills a key issues where NI lacks opportunity to take FDI potential •FDI hides domestic weaknesses in ROI – distribution of productivity very broad •Tax breaks in hospitality, misguided from productivity standpoint. •Role of EU in ROI growth, key issue for NI post-Brecit.

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