Overview: Regional economy on the rebound: - New York City, Long Island on a solid growth trajectory - New Jersey, Upstate New York, Fairfield County growing moderately - Puerto Rico appears to be back in a downturn Update on sectors that have lagged: - State & local government job cuts continue in some but not all of the region New York City’s brisk recovery continues to get little help from Wall St. Construction & housing had weighed down recovery but are now reviving

1. Regional Economic Press Briefing
June 27, 2013
The views expressed here are those of the presenters and do not necessarily represent the
views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.

2. Regional Economic Conditions
Jason Bram, Senior Economist

3. Overview
•
Regional economy on the rebound



•
New York City, Long Island on a solid growth trajectory
New Jersey, Upstate New York, Fairfield County growing moderately
Puerto Rico appears to be back in a downturn
Update on sectors that have lagged



State & local government job cuts continue in some but not all of the region
New York City’s brisk recovery continues to get little help from Wall St.
Construction & housing had weighed down recovery but are now reviving
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
2

4. Regional Economic Activity
Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI)
110
Index (December 2007 = 100)
May
105
Nov05
Mar08
Apr08
New York
City
100
Jan08
New York
State
95
Oct09
Dec10
New Jersey
Puerto Rico
90
Nov09
85
Jan07
Apr
Shading indicates NBER recession
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
Jul12
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Puerto Rico Government Development Bank
Note: The Puerto Rico composite index is based on a different methodology than the indexes produced by the FRBNY.
Jan13
Jul13
3

5. Job Change During Recession and Recovery
Local Peak to Local Trough and Local Trough to May 2013
Local Recession
-6.3%
-6.5%
-7.2%
Local Recovery (Through May)
United States
-8,736,000
6,317,000
Northern NJ
-193,600
92,400
Fairfield County
-30,300
-3.5%
-79,000
Upstate NY
-3.9% -230,300 Downstate NY
3.3%
17,800
42,400
4.9%
4.5%
1.9%
362,100
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com
Note: Northern NJ includes the Edison and Newark metro divisions and the Bergen-Hudson-Passaic special BLS area. Downstate NY
includes the Poughkeepsie and Kingston MSAs, the Putnam-Rockland-Westchester special BLS area, New York City, and Long Island.
Upstate NY includes the Buffalo, Rochester, Albany, Syracuse, Binghamton, Ithaca, Elmira, and Glens Falls MSAs.
6.3%
4

6. Total Employment
Seasonally Adjusted Index
106
Index (December 2007 = 100)
Hurricane
Sandy
104
102
New York
City
100
Long
Island
May
98
Upstate NY
United
States
96
Fairfield
94
New Jersey
92
90
88
Jan07
Shading indicates NBER recession
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
Jul12
Jan13
Jul13
5

7. State & Local Government Employment
Percent Change Over Past Two Years and Two Previous Years
May2009-May2011
United States
-2.5%
May2011-May2013
-0.8%
New York
-2.2%
-2.1%
New Jersey
-4.7%
2.0%
Connecticut
-3.6%
-1.4%
New York City
-1.6%
-0.4%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com
6

8. New York City Securities Employment
Seasonally Adjusted Levels
200
Thousands
Thousands
3,820
195
3,780
190
3,740
185
3,700
Total Employment
Minus Securities
(right axis)
180
3,660
175
3,620
Securities
Employment
(left axis)
170
3,580
May
165
160
Jun09
3,540
3,500
Dec09
Jun10
Dec10
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com
Jun11
Dec11
Jun12
Dec12
Jun13
7

9. Construction Employment
Seasonally Adjusted Index
105
Index (December 2007 = 100)
Hurricane
Sandy
100
95
New York
State
90
85
New Jersey
United
States
80
May
75
Fairfield
70
65
Jan07
Shading indicates NBER recession
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
Jul12
Jan13
Jul13
8

10. Regional Home Price Trends
CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted
110
Index (U.S. Peak of March 2006 = 100)
Hurricane
Sandy
105
100
95
90
New York
State
85
NYC Metro
80
Apr
Fairfield
75
New
Jersey
70
65
United
States
Shading indicates NBER recession
60
Mar06 Sep06 Mar07 Sep07 Mar08 Sep08 Mar09 Sep09 Mar10 Sep10 Mar11 Sep11 Mar12 Sep12 Mar13
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales); Seasonally adjusted by FRBNY staff
Note: ‘NYC Metro’ refers to the ‘New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ Metro Division’.
9

11. Conclusion
•
Economic recovery has continued across the tri-state region
•
New York metro region snapped back quickly from Sandy
•
Drag from housing finally appears to be behind us
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
10

12. Are Recent College Graduates Finding Good Jobs?
Richard Deitz, Assistant Vice President

13. Overview
•
How bad is unemployment and underemployment
for recent college graduates?
•
How have recent college graduates in our
region fared?
•
Are recent college graduates in some majors having
better outcomes than others?
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
12

14. How Bad is Unemployment and
Underemployment for Recent College Graduates?

15. U.S. Unemployment Rates
12-Month Moving Average
12%
Unemployment Rate
10%
8%
6%
Working Age
Population
Apr
2013
Recent
Graduates
4%
2%
0%
1990
All College
Graduates
Shading indicates NBER recessions
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
Note: College graduates are those with a BA degree or higher; recent college graduates are those aged 22-27; figures exclude those currently enrolled in school.
14

16. U.S. Unemployment Rate by Age
College Graduates
12%
Unemployment Rate
10%
2009-11
8%
6%
2000
4%
2%
0%
Age
22
Age
23
Age
24
Age
25
Age
26
Age
27
Age
28
Age
29
Age
30
Age
31
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey.
Note: College graduates are those with a BA degree or higher; figures exclude those currently enrolled in school.
Age
32
Age
33
Age
34
Age
35
15

17. College Graduate Underemployment
•
Classify jobs into two categories based on information
from the Department of Labor:
 Bachelor’s degree required:
• e.g., pharmacist, social worker, software developer
 Bachelor’s degree not required:
• e.g., retail salesperson, food server, electrician,
health care technician
• Graduates working in these jobs are considered
underemployed
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
16

18. U.S. Underemployment Rates
50%
Underemployment Rate
45%
Recent
Graduates
40%
All College
Graduates
35%
2012
30%
25%
20%
1990
Annual
Shading indicates NBER recessions
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, March Supplement; U.S. Department of Labor, O*NET.
Note: College graduates are those with a BA degree or higher; recent college graduates are those aged 22-27; figures exclude those currently enrolled in school.
17

19. U.S. Underemployment Rate by Age
College Graduates
60%
Underemployment Rate
2009-11
50%
40%
2000
30%
20%
10%
0%
Age
22
Age
23
Age
24
Age
25
Age
26
Age
27
Age
28
Age
29
Age
30
Age
31
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; U.S. Department of Labor, O*NET.
Note: College graduates are those with a BA degree or higher; figures exclude those currently enrolled in school.
Age
32
Age
33
Age
34
Age
35
18

20. How Have Recent College Graduates in
Our Region Fared?

21. Regional Unemployment & Underemployment
Recent College Graduates, Share of Labor Force, 2009-11
60%
52%
50%
Total
54%
5%
6%
Unemployment
54%
51%
7%
7%
40%
30%
46%
49%
44%
46%
Upstate NY
Downstate NY
Northern NJ
20%
10%
Underemployment
0%
United States
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; U.S. Department of Labor, O*NET.
Note: Recent college graduates are those with a BA degree or higher aged 22-27; figures exclude those currently enrolled in school.
20

22. Are Recent College Graduates in Some Majors
Having Better Outcomes Than Others?

23. Employment Outcomes by Major
Recent College Graduates, Share of Labor Force, 2009-11
Engineering
75%
20%
5%
Education
75%
22%
4%
Health
75%
22%
3%
Math & Computers
65%
Architecture & Construction
29%
60%
Sciences
32%
51%
43%
6%
8%
6%
Social Sciences
45%
48%
7%
Business
44%
50%
6%
Liberal Arts
40%
52%
8%
Communications
40%
54%
6%
Technologies
38%
55%
6%
Agriculture & Nat Resources
38%
57%
5%
Leisure & Hospitality
33%
% in Jobs Where
BA Degree Required
63%
% in Jobs Where BA
Degree Not Required
4%
Unemployment
Rate
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; U.S. Department of Labor, O*NET.
Note: Recent college graduates are those with a BA degree aged 22-27; figures exclude those currently enrolled in school and those with a graduate degree.
22

24. Average Annual Wages by Major
Recent Graduates, Adjusted for Demographics, 2009-11
High School
Diploma Only
Associates
Degree Only
Engineering
$55k
Business
$51k
Math & Computers
$51k
Health
$49k
Technologies
$48k
Architecture & Construction
$46k
Social Sciences
$44k
Agriculture & Nat Resources
$42k
Leisure & Hospitality
$42k
Communications
$41k
Sciences
$40k
Liberal Arts
$38k
Education
$0k
$35k BA Degree Required
BA Degree Not Required
$10k
$20k
$30k
$40k
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; U.S. Department of Labor, O*NET.
Note: Estimated using data for those 27 and under; figures exclude part-time workers and those with a graduate degree.
$50k
$60k
23

25. Summary
•
Relatively high unemployment and underemployment
is not unusual for recent college graduates as it takes
time to transition into the labor market.
•
However, evidence suggests young college workers
have been struggling more in recent years.
•
Majors that provide technical training and are geared
toward growing parts of the economy have tended to
fare better.
•
Regardless of major, those with college degrees still
tend to have better labor market outcomes than
those without.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK
24

26. Appendix

27. Major Field Groupings
Based on the American Community Survey
Agriculture and Natural Resources
 Agriculture
 Environment and
Natural Resources
Architecture and Construction
 Architecture
 Construction Services
Business
 Business
Communications
 Communications
Education
 Education Administration
and Teaching
Engineering
 Engineering
Health
 Medical and Health
Sciences and Services
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey.
Leisure and Hospitality
 Cosmetology Services
and Culinary Arts
 Physical Fitness, Parks,
Recreation, and Leisure
Liberal Arts
 Area, Ethnic, and
Civilization Studies
 English Language, Literature,
and Composition
 Fine Arts
 History
 Liberal Arts and Humanities
 Library Science
 Linguistics and Foreign Languages
 Philosophy and Religious Studies
 Theology and Religious Vocations
Math and Computer Sciences
 Computer and
Information Sciences
 Mathematics and Statistics
Sciences
 Biology and Life Sciences
 Physical Sciences
Social Sciences
 Criminal Justice
and Fire Protection
 Family and Consumer
Sciences
 Law
 Psychology
 Public Affairs, Policy,
and Social Work
 Social Sciences
Technologies
 Communication Technologies
 Electrical and Mechanic
Repairs and Technologies
 Engineering Technologies
 Nuclear, Industrial Radiology,
and Biological Technologies
 Transportation Sciences
and Technologies
26

28. Total Employment
Seasonally Adjusted Index
106
Index (December 2007 = 100)
Hurricane
Sandy
104
102
New York
City
100
New York
State
98
May
United
States
96
94
New Jersey
92
Puerto Rico
90
88
Jan07
Shading indicates NBER recession
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
Jul12
Jan13
Jul13
27

29. New York City Securities Employment
Seasonally Adjusted Levels
240
210
Thousands
Thousands
Shading indicates time
between securities and
total employment troughs
Total Employment
Minus Securities
(right axis)
4,000
3,750
180
3,500
May
150
3,250
Securities
Employment
(left axis)
120
3,000
90
2,750
60
1966
2,500
1971
1976
1981
1986
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody’s Economy.com
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
28