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Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
1
Chinook Stock Monitoring
Spawning Surveys, Escapement Estimates & Forecasts
James P. Losee, Larry Phillips
WDFW
Craig Smith, Nano Perez
NIT
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
Spawning surveys-objective
▫ Estimate weir efficiency
▫ Estimate escapement
 Total abundance
 Sex ratios
 Hatchery Origin vs. Natural Origin
▫ Assess fish health (i.e. spawning status)
▫ Habitat monitoring
2
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
• Weekly sampling (7-10 days)
• Raft and Foot
• August 28-October 29
3
Spawning surveys-methods
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
• Live
▫ Mark status
▫ Sex
• Dead
▫ Species, Length, Sex
▫ Mark Status, CWTs, Jaw Tags
▫ Biological Data
 fin clip (genetic stock ID)
 otoliths (habitat use)
 scales (age composition)
 GPS and egg retention
• Redd
 mark and record location
4
Spawning surveys-methods
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
5
12.5 (Weir)
39.2 (Mashel R.)
26.2
21.6 (McKenna)
3.2 (Riverbend Campground)
6.6 (Eatonville)
Nisqually Watershed
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
6Chinook Salmon Carcass Recoveries
30
11
4
12 13
1
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
7Hatchery vs. Natural Origin Carcasses
12.5 (Weir)
43%88%
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
8
Add other carcass
locations +jaw tag
Jaw Tag Recoveries
12.5 (Weir)
22% of non-marked fish recovered above
weir were jaw tagged.
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
• Survey-based (Harrington-Tweit, 1986)
▫ Escapement=6.81((2.5*Mainstem peak L+D) + Mashel peak L + D)
• Change-in-ratio (Seber, 1982)
▫ Escapement=(removals(%marked removals-%marked at weir))/(%marked in
fishery-%marked at weir)
▫ Requires 3 sampling locations (strata)
9
WeirFishery Hatchery
Escapement Estimates
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
10
Escapement Results1979-2011 Nisqually Fall Chinook Escapement Estimates
6.81((2.5*mnstm peak)+Mashel peak)
Return Year
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
EscapementEstimate
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Escapement Method Total Escapement Hatchery Origin Natural Origin
Change-in-ratio 2293 1257 1035
Traditional 245 134 111
Change-in-Ratio
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
Estimation of sport catch
• Creel Survey Data
▫ CWT recoveries
▫ Mark vs. Unmark (retained
and released)
▫ Age composition (scales)
▫ Genetic Stock ID (tissue
samples)
• Catch Record Card Data
▫ Species retained
▫ Mark status
11
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
Forecasting 2014
12
Brood Year # Fry Released Survival
1996 4,395,000 0.86%
1997 3,257,000 0.18%
1998 3,319,476 0.97%
1999 4,276,895 0.75%
2000 3,275,907 0.83%
2001 4,097,466 0.39%
2002 3,514,024 0.96%
2003 4,166,184 0.75%
2004 3,443,874 1.21%
2005 3,876,056 0.52%
2006 4,376,957 0.43%
2007 4,322,815 1.40%
2008 4,297,982 0.40%
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
13
District 11 Hatchery Survival by Brood (1995-2008)
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
%Return(survival)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Voights
Minter Creek
Deschutes R.
Nisqually R.
White River Spring
Forecasting 2014
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
14
Forecasting 2014
Brood Year Age Return Mark Rates AD Clipped Unmarked Total
2009 5 225 94.6% 212 12 225
2010 4 15,897 94.3% 14997 900 15897
2011 3 15,361 93.9% 14421 940 15361
Total 29,630 1,852 31,482
2014 Forecast=31,482
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
15
Escapement Method Total Escapement
Live Counts 815, 887
Weir Counts 818, 961
Nisqually Pink Salmon
17,305
987, 547
Nisqually River Pink Salmon
Total Runsize
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
16Chinook Salmon Carcass Recoveries
30
11
4
12 13
1
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
• Continue to monitor the effect of the
weir.
• Improve escapement estimate with weir
counts.
17
Future Directions
Nisqually Chinook
Annual Review
Questions?
18

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Chinook Stock Monitoring: Spawning Surveys, Escapement Estimates and Forecasts

  • 1. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 1 Chinook Stock Monitoring Spawning Surveys, Escapement Estimates & Forecasts James P. Losee, Larry Phillips WDFW Craig Smith, Nano Perez NIT
  • 2. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review Spawning surveys-objective ▫ Estimate weir efficiency ▫ Estimate escapement  Total abundance  Sex ratios  Hatchery Origin vs. Natural Origin ▫ Assess fish health (i.e. spawning status) ▫ Habitat monitoring 2
  • 3. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review • Weekly sampling (7-10 days) • Raft and Foot • August 28-October 29 3 Spawning surveys-methods
  • 4. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review • Live ▫ Mark status ▫ Sex • Dead ▫ Species, Length, Sex ▫ Mark Status, CWTs, Jaw Tags ▫ Biological Data  fin clip (genetic stock ID)  otoliths (habitat use)  scales (age composition)  GPS and egg retention • Redd  mark and record location 4 Spawning surveys-methods
  • 5. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 5 12.5 (Weir) 39.2 (Mashel R.) 26.2 21.6 (McKenna) 3.2 (Riverbend Campground) 6.6 (Eatonville) Nisqually Watershed
  • 6. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 6Chinook Salmon Carcass Recoveries 30 11 4 12 13 1
  • 7. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 7Hatchery vs. Natural Origin Carcasses 12.5 (Weir) 43%88%
  • 8. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 8 Add other carcass locations +jaw tag Jaw Tag Recoveries 12.5 (Weir) 22% of non-marked fish recovered above weir were jaw tagged.
  • 9. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review • Survey-based (Harrington-Tweit, 1986) ▫ Escapement=6.81((2.5*Mainstem peak L+D) + Mashel peak L + D) • Change-in-ratio (Seber, 1982) ▫ Escapement=(removals(%marked removals-%marked at weir))/(%marked in fishery-%marked at weir) ▫ Requires 3 sampling locations (strata) 9 WeirFishery Hatchery Escapement Estimates
  • 10. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 10 Escapement Results1979-2011 Nisqually Fall Chinook Escapement Estimates 6.81((2.5*mnstm peak)+Mashel peak) Return Year 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 EscapementEstimate 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Escapement Method Total Escapement Hatchery Origin Natural Origin Change-in-ratio 2293 1257 1035 Traditional 245 134 111 Change-in-Ratio
  • 11. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review Estimation of sport catch • Creel Survey Data ▫ CWT recoveries ▫ Mark vs. Unmark (retained and released) ▫ Age composition (scales) ▫ Genetic Stock ID (tissue samples) • Catch Record Card Data ▫ Species retained ▫ Mark status 11
  • 12. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review Forecasting 2014 12 Brood Year # Fry Released Survival 1996 4,395,000 0.86% 1997 3,257,000 0.18% 1998 3,319,476 0.97% 1999 4,276,895 0.75% 2000 3,275,907 0.83% 2001 4,097,466 0.39% 2002 3,514,024 0.96% 2003 4,166,184 0.75% 2004 3,443,874 1.21% 2005 3,876,056 0.52% 2006 4,376,957 0.43% 2007 4,322,815 1.40% 2008 4,297,982 0.40%
  • 13. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 13 District 11 Hatchery Survival by Brood (1995-2008) 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 %Return(survival) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 Voights Minter Creek Deschutes R. Nisqually R. White River Spring Forecasting 2014
  • 14. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 14 Forecasting 2014 Brood Year Age Return Mark Rates AD Clipped Unmarked Total 2009 5 225 94.6% 212 12 225 2010 4 15,897 94.3% 14997 900 15897 2011 3 15,361 93.9% 14421 940 15361 Total 29,630 1,852 31,482 2014 Forecast=31,482
  • 15. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 15 Escapement Method Total Escapement Live Counts 815, 887 Weir Counts 818, 961 Nisqually Pink Salmon 17,305 987, 547 Nisqually River Pink Salmon Total Runsize
  • 16. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review 16Chinook Salmon Carcass Recoveries 30 11 4 12 13 1
  • 17. Nisqually Chinook Annual Review • Continue to monitor the effect of the weir. • Improve escapement estimate with weir counts. 17 Future Directions

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Error associated with traditional method Hoped to use the weir to achieve a direct estimate of escapement 1979 to current 2.5 accounts for the fact that more fish are seen in Mashel than Nisqually 6.81 is the expansion factor for the rest of the river. Without 100% efficiency and no jaw tags we were forced to do the CIR
  2. Uses mulitiple sources of data but also reflects the population size observed in the sport fishery Past modeling efforts and policy decisions have relied on the traditional method. Can’t compare to base years. Spawning survey escapement estimate has issues. Highlighted in years where redd counts are greater than live counts. Spawning surveys UMNT 26.1% marked 73.9% Include Table of HOR and NORs