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Technical trades march 2014 - by www.nooreshtech.co.in

Main Sections of the Report
1) Nifty Technical View
2) 4 Large Cap Trade Ideas.
3) 4 Mid Cap Trade Setups
4) 4 Interesting Small Cap Breakout trades.
5) Sector in focus for Long Term Turnaround and top investment in the sector.
6) Two High Risk High Return Punter Trades.

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Technical trades march 2014 - by www.nooreshtech.co.in

  1. 1. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in In this report we would try cover the best possible trading setups and the potential risk- reward entry points on a lot of technical parameters. Things to Note  The report has been made on basis of technical analysis and in good faith.  Past Performance is not a guarantee to the future. ( so even I have been wrong many a times before its not necessary I ll be again and vice versa  )  Do not over-leverage.  Also do take care of the risk management and keep a strict stoploss. If you cannot afford the stoploss don’t take the trade.  One of the ideal ways to trade would be to book partial profits and keep trailing stoplosses to reduce risk and conserve profits.  No trading strategy allocation has been advised as every trader may have a different style and methodology for allocation of funds.
  2. 2. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in TECHNICAL TRADES - MARCH 2014 Stock Name Reco Range Reco Price High Target Stoploss CMP %gain s Comments Asian Paints 490-495 495 544 535 480 539 8.08 All targets done grasim abv 2850 2850 290 0 3100 2750 2859 0.32 Broken out on 28 March Infosys 3350-3390 3370 340 0 3800 3240 3260 -3.86 Stoploss hit but maintain hold and re- entry Wipro 555-535 545 577 650 525 552 1.28 Maintain hold. Did bounce to 575. Tata Chemicals 275-278 277 287 325 264 286 3.25 Maintain hold and add on dips. Positional buy. Century Textiles 330-335 336 366 375 320 364 8.33 Getting into the target zone. 1st tgt done. Book at 375 or trail. VIP Inds 70-75 75 104 100 68 100 33.33 Both targets done of 85/100 in quick time Hexaware 143-148 146 153 165 137 150.5 3.08 Maintain positive view on the stock. Did retest of support on exact lines. Stoploss can now be 139 Datamatics 47-53 51 52 80 42 51 0.00 It’s a long term bet. Essel Propack abv 56 56 64 66 53 58.5 4.46 Did the initial target of 60 and made a high of 64. Can book on rise to 60-65 in coming days. Tata Comm abv 300 300 305 320/34 5 293 303 1.00 Broke out on 27 March. Hold for short
  3. 3. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in term. Jagran 88-91 90 104 105/11 5 86 101 12.22 Went close to 1st target of 105. Can book on rise in coming days between 102-105 Balrampur Chini 50-53 52 54 68 47 53 1.92 Maintain hold for short and long term both Bajaj Hind 14-15.5 15 17.3 18/24 13 16.2 8.00 Maintain hold. Bullish on the sector. Can buy as a basket. Triveni Engineering 17-18 17.5 18.6 25/30 15 17.4 -0.57 A good long term buy. IFCI abv 26.7 26.7 27.4 30-32 25.5 27.1 1.50 Broken out on 28th March. Hold. Marksans Pharma 17-17.8 17.8 26.5 21/25 15.5 25 40.45 Target done in quick time. Super move. Can do 40 also in medium term. Sundaram Finance 620-645 635 684 720- 750 600 669 5.35 Maintain hold. GE Shipping 320-330 326 353 360- 390 310 339 3.99 Maintain hold NRB Bearings 45-46.5 46 53 55 42 51.5 11.96 Book on rise to 53-55. Can keep part holding for long term.
  4. 4. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in
  5. 5. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Nifty Technical View  Although we had a cautious view at 6500-6550 as the index was reaching 70 RSI.  The index did dip 100 points but could not reverse strongly and took our trailing stops on the Nifty trade.  Given the momentum and possibility a trendline breakout above 6600 and sustaining 70 RSI this can also end up into a strong pre-election rally.  Previous such breakouts have resulted in a long term trend change also. ( We will discuss this in detail in the webinar )  Till the index holds 6300-6400 the trend remains positive with possibility of 6800/7200 also in euphoria.  But we have generally seen a overbought zone in Nifty is a good time for midcap and broader market stocks.  The strategy should be to be stock specific with strict stops.
  6. 6. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Asian Paints – Channel Breakout  A downward channel with almost 4 attempts on the upside was finally broken last week above 490.  The channel size is around 30 points.  Buy at 490-495 with a stoploss of 480 and a target price of 518/535.  Momentum will be seen in the stock above 502.
  7. 7. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Grasim Limited  The stock has made 6 attempts at the resistance of 2850.  Given that the stock is sustaining in the current move we can expect the breakout to come in next few sessions.  Buy in dips to 2650-2680 or in momentum above 2850 for a target of 3000-3100 and higher. Stoploss at 2600 and 2770 in momentum trade.
  8. 8. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Infosys  After breaking out of the range of 2200-3000 the stock completed the 800 pointer target by touching 3800.  Now the stock has seen a correction and retesting the support zones of 3300-3400.  After the gap down there is no further selling with volumes is an indication of a bottoming out in short term.  Buy around 3350-3400 and on dips with a stoploss of 3240 with a short term target of 3600/3800.  The stock is in a long term uptrend and can look at much higher levels. The high of the Y2k boom was around 3500. A 15 year high cross is generally a very positive signal.
  9. 9. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Wipro – High Conviction Bet  The stock was in a range of 300-505 for a period of 3 + years.  Breakout was recently seen above 500-520 after a couple of failed attempts.  The minimum target price in such a range breakout should be 700.  After making an initial move to 600 the stock is now testing its breakout zones.  Buy at 555-535 with a stoploss of 525 and a target price of 650-700 in the next 1-3 months.  This is our high conviction bet for short term and even long term investors.
  10. 10. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Tata Chemicals  After a major bottoming out at 240-260 and a retest of the same levels the long term trend change is clear in the stock.  The stock broke out above 275 with very strong volumes and touched a high of closer to 300.  Post that the stock is seeing a drift with low volumes to test the support zone at 270-275.  Buying can be initiated at current levels of 275-280 and on any dips to 268-272 be added if at all it comes. Stoploss of 264 and a target price of 300/325.  This is a good stock for long term investors as well with an eventual target of 400.
  11. 11. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Century Textiles  Century Textiles has given a breakout above the inverted head and shoulders/cup and handle trendline. The volumes have not picked up and the stock is sustaining around the breakout levels.  We may see further momentum above 345 levels.  Can buy around 330-335 with a stoploss of 320 and a quick target price of 360-375.  A momentum buy can be initiated above 345.
  12. 12. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in VIP Inds  A cup and handle of around 25-30 points.  The stock has seen good volumes on breakout above 70-74 zones.  Potential target price could be 85/100.  Buying can be done in the stock at 70-75 with a stoploss of 68.
  13. 13. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Hexaware Technologies – Strong Midcap IT Company  A cup and handle pattern with a size of 70-80 points is potentially a huge return candidate.  Also the strong volumes on breakout above 140 & now drifting to test support on lower volumes is a strong sign.  The risk-reward is highly favorable when buying the stock at 143-148 and a stoploss of 137 with a potential long term target of 200-220.  A short term target at 160-165.
  14. 14. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Datamatics – Techno Funda Small Cap Bet  The stock has crossed 5 year highs with huge volumes post coming out of the Periodic Call Auction System.  It is now giving an excellent entry on retest of the 47-53 support levels.  Fundamentally the stock is at 300 cr market cap and a trailing twelve months PAT of 42 crores with no debt and a dividend payout ratio of 50%. The profit growth has been 55 % for last 5 years.  At a P/E of 7 for a company which has been a consistent performer over the last 5 years and the best results since listing 10 yrs back around 2004 it is a candidate for re-rating.  High promoter shareholding and dividend track record with a yield of 2% it becomes an interesting long term story.  Buy with a technical target price of 80-100 in the long term.
  15. 15. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Essel Propack – Setting up for a breakout  The stock has been a good uptrend for last 6 months but the move has been slow and steady.  For last 3 months the stock is in a range of 46-56.  We have seen a slight increase in volumes and the stock is very close to its breakout at 56.  One can buy the stock at 53-54 or above 56 with a target price of 60/66 + in the short term. Stoploss at 50 and 53 in momentum.
  16. 16. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Tata Communication – Momentum Trade to watchout for above 300  The stock has seen a huge move over the past few months but is now consolidating for last couple of months.  This is a momentum trade only to be initiated above 300 with a stoploss of 293 and a quick target of 320/345.
  17. 17. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Jagran Prakashan – Waiting for Momentum  One of the better bets in the media segment fundamentally and now waiting for some technical momentum.  The stock is on verge of a triangle breakout and almost made an attempt couple of days back.  Buying can be initiated at 88-91 with a stoploss of 86 on closing basis and a target of 105-115.  A good risk-reward buy at current levels.
  18. 18. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Sugar Stocks – Trend Change for Long Term Balrampur Chini  After making a double bottom around 35 the stock has crossed above the channel.  After making 4 failed attempts the stock broke out above 50 and made a quick high to 57.  The volumes are strong and the support retest at 50-53 is a buying opportunity.  Also the sector has been in a downtrend for many years and this could possibly be start of a major uptrend in the stock.  Buy around 50-53 with a stoploss of 47 and a target of 60/68.  Some part of the quantity can also be kept for long term.
  19. 19. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Bajaj Hindustan  The stock has been in a range of 12-15.5 for the last 6-10 months making a long consolidation with many attempts at the higher end.  Breakout was seen with huge volumes.  This can be a little riskier than Balrampur Chini given the volatility of the stock but so can be the returns.  Buy at 14-15.5 with a stoploss of 13 and a target price of 18-24.  This can also potentially be a long term turnaround and one of the most corrected stocks in the sector due to debts this can be a multibagger also if things work fine.
  20. 20. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Techno Funda Long term Bet in Sugar Space – Triveni Engineering.  One stock which can also be added in the segment is Triveni Engineering which is better placed fundamentally due to the 23% holding in Triveni Turbines is worth the current market cap.  Accumulate the stock at 17-18 with a long term view.
  21. 21. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in TWO HIGH RISK HIGH RETURN MOMENTUM TRADES IFCI  IFCI has generally been a punters favorite in momentum and the stock is again close to a resistance which it has not been able to cross.  Sustaining above 26.7 opens up a quick move to 30-32.  A stoploss of 25.5 on crossover.  Given the volatility the stock is a high risk high return bet.
  22. 22. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in Marksans Pharma  Another favorite of the 2008 period the stock had a bad time for last many years.  Recently the stock has moved from1-2 rs to 20 in the last 1 year due to a string of superb results and a total turnaround.  For the last 3-4 months the stock is consolidating before it sets up for another breakout move.  One can buy the stock at 17-18 with a stoploss of 15.5 and a target of 21/25.  Punters expect it to touch even 40 in the medium term. High risk high return stock.
  23. 23. www.analyseindia.com www.nooreshtech.co.in TEAM ANALYSE INDIA Nooresh Merani CEO - Analyse India Cell: +91-9819225396 e-mail: nooreshtech@analyseindia.com N S Fidai Managing Director - Analyse India Cell: +91-9920120878 e-mail: nsfidai@analyseindia.com Ankit Chaudhary Technical Analyst and Derivative Strategist - Analyse India Cell: +91-9899899989 e-mail: ankit@analyseindia.com
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