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Adam Steventon: Evaluating the Whole
 System Demonstrator trial

 Authors:
 Adam Steventon, Martin Bardsley
 Nuffield Trust




June 22, 2012                      © Nuffield Trust
What is telehealth?


  “the remote exchange of data between a patient
  and health care professionals as part of the
  diagnosis and management of health care
  conditions”

  Telehealth devices enable items such as blood
  glucose level and weight to be measured by the
  patient and transmitted to health care professionals




                                                         Image is the copyright of Tunstall Group Ltd
  working remotely.




                                                                                                        © Nuffield Trust

                                                                                                              © Nuffield Trust
Three whole system demonstrators

             CORNWALL                                           NEWHAM                                                  KENT




                                                   •   One of the most deprived areas in the UK        •   Combination of rural and urban populations
                                                   •   Population of 270,442 - GP registered           •   Population of 1.37m (excluding Medway
•   The poorest county in England, with a
                                                       population of 300,000                               Unitary Authority). Two areas already
    dispersed rural population
                                                   •   Population increasing at a higher rate than         piloting telehealth: Ashford/Shepway
•   Population of >500,000
                                                       the London average                                  (population: 211,100) and
•   46% of the population live in settlements of
                                                   •   2nd most diverse population in the UK -             Dartford/Gravesham/Swanley (population:
    <3,000 people
                                                       >68% black and minority ethnic (BME) >140           210,00)
•   99.1% White British
                                                       first languages                                 •   3.5% BME
•   10.3% of the population are aged 65+;
                                                   •   8.5% of the population are aged 65+             •   17.3% of the population are aged 65+
    7.2% 75+ and 2.6% 85+
                                                   •   17.3% of the population have a limiting long-       8.4% 75+ and 2.2% 85+
•   21% of the population report a limiting
                                                       term illness                                    •   Within the target population, individuals
    long-term illness
                                                   •   Highest death rate from stroke and COPD             report having an average of 1.6 of the three
                                                   •   Highest diabetes rate in the UK                     target conditions of heart failure, COPD,
                                                   •   2nd highest CHD rate in London                      diabetes
                                                                                                                                             © Nuffield Trust
Trial design




               © Nuffield Trust
Long-term conditions of intervention participants




                                                    © Nuffield Trust
Multi-dimensional evaluation


   Theme 1             Theme 2            Theme 3            Theme 4          Theme 5
 (Nuffield Trust)   (City & Oxford)        (LSE)           (Manchester        (Imperial)
                                                            & Oxford)


Impact of service     Participant      Costs and cost-    Experiences of    Organisational
      use and          reported         effectiveness      service users,    factors and
associated costs      outcomes                            informal carers    sustainable
 for the NHS and                                                and         adoption and
  social services                                          professionals     integration



All 3,000 people    Subset of people   Subset of people     Qualitative      Qualitative
                        plus their                          interviews       interviews
                     informal carers




                                                                                     © Nuffield Trust
Information flows for this analysis
Predictive risk scores




                         © Nuffield Trust
Crude (unadjusted) trends in emergency hospital
admissions




                                                  © Nuffield Trust
Primary measure: Proportion of patients admitted
to hospital in twelve months of trial

                              Control             Intervention          Absolute               Relative
                                                                        difference             difference

 Proportion of patients                    48.2                  42.9                   -5.2                -10.8
 admitted to hospital in 12
 months (%)


 Endpoint                     Interpretation      Model                 Estimate [95%          p value
                                                                        confidence interval]
 Admission proportion         Odds ratio                                               0.82
                                                  Unadjusted                 [0.70 to 0.97]                 0.017
                                                                                       0.82
                                                  Adjusted                   [0.69 to 0.98]                 0.026
                                                                                       0.82
                                                  Combined Model
                                                  adjusted                   [0.69 to 0.96]                 0.016



                                                                                                               © Nuffield Trust
Differences in secondary measures

                                          Control     Intervention    Absolute      Relative
                                                                      difference    difference

 Mortality (%)                                  8.3             4.6          -3.7       -44.5%

 Emergency admissions per head                 0.68           0.54          -0.14       -20.6%

 Elective admissions per head                  0.49           0.42          -0.07       -14.3%

 Outpatient attendances per head               4.68           4.76           0.08           1.7%

 Accident and Emergency visits per head        0.75           0.64          -0.11       -14.7%

 Bed days per head                             5.68            4.87         -0.81       -14.3%

 Tariff costs (£)                             2,448          2,260           188          -7.7%

Key:       = statistically significant

                                                                                        © Nuffield Trust
Key findings


• Compared to controls, a smaller proportion of intervention patients were
  admitted to hospital.
• Intervention patients had fewer emergency admissions, deaths and hospital
  bed days.
• Tariff hospital costs £188 per head lower in intervention group – but this did
  not reach statistical significance. (Cost of intervention not included in these
  figures).
• Some reasons for caution:
  • Theoretical possibility of differences in characteristics of intervention and
    control patients
  • Differences in emergency hospital admissions were from a low base
  • Increases in emergency admissions for controls
                                                                                © Nuffield Trust
Multi-dimensional evaluation


   Theme 1             Theme 2            Theme 3            Theme 4          Theme 5
 (Nuffield Trust)   (City & Oxford)        (LSE)           (Manchester        (Imperial)
                                                            & Oxford)


Impact of service     Participant      Costs and cost-    Experiences of    Organisational
      use and          reported         effectiveness      service users,    factors and
associated costs      outcomes                            informal carers    sustainable
 for the NHS and                                                and         adoption and
  social services                                          professionals     integration



All 3,000 people    Subset of people   Subset of people     Qualitative      Qualitative
                        plus their                          interviews       interviews
                     informal carers




                                                                                     © Nuffield Trust
www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk


         Sign-up for our newsletter:
         www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/newsletter


         Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/NuffieldTrust



         adam.steventon@nuffieldtrust.org.uk




June 22, 2012                                                     © Nuffield Trust

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Adam Steventon: Evaluating the Whole System Demonstrator trial

  • 1. Adam Steventon: Evaluating the Whole System Demonstrator trial Authors: Adam Steventon, Martin Bardsley Nuffield Trust June 22, 2012 © Nuffield Trust
  • 2. What is telehealth? “the remote exchange of data between a patient and health care professionals as part of the diagnosis and management of health care conditions” Telehealth devices enable items such as blood glucose level and weight to be measured by the patient and transmitted to health care professionals Image is the copyright of Tunstall Group Ltd working remotely. © Nuffield Trust © Nuffield Trust
  • 3. Three whole system demonstrators CORNWALL NEWHAM KENT • One of the most deprived areas in the UK • Combination of rural and urban populations • Population of 270,442 - GP registered • Population of 1.37m (excluding Medway • The poorest county in England, with a population of 300,000 Unitary Authority). Two areas already dispersed rural population • Population increasing at a higher rate than piloting telehealth: Ashford/Shepway • Population of >500,000 the London average (population: 211,100) and • 46% of the population live in settlements of • 2nd most diverse population in the UK - Dartford/Gravesham/Swanley (population: <3,000 people >68% black and minority ethnic (BME) >140 210,00) • 99.1% White British first languages • 3.5% BME • 10.3% of the population are aged 65+; • 8.5% of the population are aged 65+ • 17.3% of the population are aged 65+ 7.2% 75+ and 2.6% 85+ • 17.3% of the population have a limiting long- 8.4% 75+ and 2.2% 85+ • 21% of the population report a limiting term illness • Within the target population, individuals long-term illness • Highest death rate from stroke and COPD report having an average of 1.6 of the three • Highest diabetes rate in the UK target conditions of heart failure, COPD, • 2nd highest CHD rate in London diabetes © Nuffield Trust
  • 4. Trial design © Nuffield Trust
  • 5. Long-term conditions of intervention participants © Nuffield Trust
  • 6. Multi-dimensional evaluation Theme 1 Theme 2 Theme 3 Theme 4 Theme 5 (Nuffield Trust) (City & Oxford) (LSE) (Manchester (Imperial) & Oxford) Impact of service Participant Costs and cost- Experiences of Organisational use and reported effectiveness service users, factors and associated costs outcomes informal carers sustainable for the NHS and and adoption and social services professionals integration All 3,000 people Subset of people Subset of people Qualitative Qualitative plus their interviews interviews informal carers © Nuffield Trust
  • 7. Information flows for this analysis
  • 8. Predictive risk scores © Nuffield Trust
  • 9. Crude (unadjusted) trends in emergency hospital admissions © Nuffield Trust
  • 10. Primary measure: Proportion of patients admitted to hospital in twelve months of trial Control Intervention Absolute Relative difference difference Proportion of patients 48.2 42.9 -5.2 -10.8 admitted to hospital in 12 months (%) Endpoint Interpretation Model Estimate [95% p value confidence interval] Admission proportion Odds ratio 0.82 Unadjusted [0.70 to 0.97] 0.017 0.82 Adjusted [0.69 to 0.98] 0.026 0.82 Combined Model adjusted [0.69 to 0.96] 0.016 © Nuffield Trust
  • 11. Differences in secondary measures Control Intervention Absolute Relative difference difference Mortality (%) 8.3 4.6 -3.7 -44.5% Emergency admissions per head 0.68 0.54 -0.14 -20.6% Elective admissions per head 0.49 0.42 -0.07 -14.3% Outpatient attendances per head 4.68 4.76 0.08 1.7% Accident and Emergency visits per head 0.75 0.64 -0.11 -14.7% Bed days per head 5.68 4.87 -0.81 -14.3% Tariff costs (£) 2,448 2,260 188 -7.7% Key: = statistically significant © Nuffield Trust
  • 12. Key findings • Compared to controls, a smaller proportion of intervention patients were admitted to hospital. • Intervention patients had fewer emergency admissions, deaths and hospital bed days. • Tariff hospital costs £188 per head lower in intervention group – but this did not reach statistical significance. (Cost of intervention not included in these figures). • Some reasons for caution: • Theoretical possibility of differences in characteristics of intervention and control patients • Differences in emergency hospital admissions were from a low base • Increases in emergency admissions for controls © Nuffield Trust
  • 13. Multi-dimensional evaluation Theme 1 Theme 2 Theme 3 Theme 4 Theme 5 (Nuffield Trust) (City & Oxford) (LSE) (Manchester (Imperial) & Oxford) Impact of service Participant Costs and cost- Experiences of Organisational use and reported effectiveness service users, factors and associated costs outcomes informal carers sustainable for the NHS and and adoption and social services professionals integration All 3,000 people Subset of people Subset of people Qualitative Qualitative plus their interviews interviews informal carers © Nuffield Trust
  • 14. www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk Sign-up for our newsletter: www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/newsletter Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/NuffieldTrust adam.steventon@nuffieldtrust.org.uk June 22, 2012 © Nuffield Trust