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Long-term fiscal sustainability -- Martin Baur, Switzerland

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This presentation was made by Martin Baur, Switzerland, at the Introductory Workshop on Green Budgeting Tools held at the OECD, Paris, on 29 April 20

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Long-term fiscal sustainability -- Martin Baur, Switzerland

  1. 1. Federal Department of Finance FDF Federal Finance Administration FFA Long-term Fiscal Sustainability Reporting in Switzerland Dr. Martin Baur Head Economic Analysis and Policy Advice Swiss Federal Finance Administration Collaborative on Green Budgeting – 2nd Green Budgeting Experts Meeting OECD, Paris, 29 April 2019 Session 4 – Long-term fiscal sustainability
  2. 2. 2 Federal Department of Finance FDF Federal Finance Administration FFA Fiscal Sustainability Reporting in Switzerland • Demography: • Report on the Long-Term Sustainability of Public Finances in Switzerland Every 4 years since 2008. Latest version: 2016. Time horizon: 2045 Takes account of future demographic developments. Sensitivity analysis for different migration and productivity scenarios. • Health: • Healthcare Expenditure Projections Every 4 years since 2008. Latest version: 2016. Time horizon: 2045 • Migration: • Working paper “Impact of Immigration on Public Finances in Switzerland” Paris Collaborative on Green Budgeting / M. Baur / 29 April 2019
  3. 3. 3 Federal Department of Finance FDF Federal Finance Administration FFA Fiscal Sustainability and Climate Change: What do we know? Economic impact of climate change • EPFL (2017), Assessing the impacts of climate change for Switzerland. • Federal Council (2017), Message to Parliament regarding the adaptation of the CO2 law. • OECD (2015), The Economic Consequences of Climate Change. • N. Stern (2007), The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review Budgetary impact of climate change • Actual and planned expenses of climate policy as published in financial planning instruments (short-term budgetary impact) • Qualitative presentation of possible impacts in Long-Term Sustainability Report 2016 Paris Collaborative on Green Budgeting / M. Baur / 29 April 2019
  4. 4. 4 Federal Department of Finance FDF Federal Finance Administration FFA Fiscal Sustainability and Climate Change: What do we know? Budgetary impact of climate change (rise in temperature & increase of extreme weather events) via the following channels: • Prevention of climate change • public r&d, emission reduction policies, international emission trading • Damage remediation and adaptation • public expenditures for protection and repairs • International commitment • climate funds, assistance for countries, refugees • Impact on revenues • mineral oil and carbon taxes, reduced income and consumption taxes due to reduced GDP growth, might be (partly) offset by innovation and positive impact on some activities (e.g. international tourism) •  negative impact on public finances might be expected (increasing expenditures, declining revenues) Paris Collaborative on Green Budgeting / M. Baur / 29 April 2019
  5. 5. 5 Federal Department of Finance FDF Federal Finance Administration FFA Fiscal Sustainability and Climate Change: Challenges • How to get a quantitative evaluation of the long-term impact of climate change on public finances in Switzerland: •  Long-term Sustainability Report of Public Finances including demography and climate change • Challenges: • Impact is difficult to quantify 1) The economic impact is not fully quantified yet 2) Difficult to predict frequency of extreme weather events 3) Difficult to predict impact throughout the rest of the world (e.g. spillovers for CHE, migration, trade etc.) • Impact for Switzerland is probably relatively small Paris Collaborative on Green Budgeting / M. Baur / 29 April 2019
  6. 6. 6 Federal Department of Finance FDF Federal Finance Administration FFA Fiscal Sustainability and Climate Change: Challenges How to proceed from here: • Review of literature on studies about the budgetary impact of climate change • AUT: Bachner Gabriel and Birgit Bednar-Friedl (2018), The Effects of Climate Change Impacts on Public Budgets and Implications of Fiscal Counterbalancing Instruments. • DEU: Infras and Ecologic (2009), Klimawandel : Welche Belastungen entstehen für die Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen ?. (Kurzfassung) • USA: OMB (2016), Climate change: the fiscal risks facing the federal government. Paris Collaborative on Green Budgeting / M. Baur / 29 April 2019
  7. 7. 7 Federal Department of Finance FDF Federal Finance Administration FFA Fiscal Sustainability and Climate Change: Challenges • Qualitative and comprehensive description of channels by which climate change can have a budgetary impact • List of data needed to compute the budgetary impact • Survey on research reports, latest published results, data and work in progress in OECD countries  Questionnaire of OECD Secretariat for survey within Collaborative on Green Budgeting Paris Collaborative on Green Budgeting / M. Baur / 29 April 2019
  8. 8. 8 Federal Department of Finance FDF Federal Finance Administration FFA Eroding Energy Tax Bases • CO2 tax In Switzerland: mostly redistributed, partly earmarked Will eventually be entirely redistributed => Declining revenues are not an issue • Mineral oil tax In Switzerland: earmarked for road financing => Declining revenues in the long run will have to be offset (road pricing, other taxes, etc.) Environmental taxes should (at least partially) be redistributed to households and firms • Declining revenues are not an issue • Redistribution of revenues counteract the regressivity of the environmental tax  increasing social acceptance of environmental taxes • Paris Collaborative on Green Budgeting / M. Baur / 29 April 2019

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