1) Global temperatures have risen about 1 degree Celsius since 1880 due to increased greenhouse gases from human activities like burning fossil fuels. 2) Reducing emissions of short-lived climate pollutants like methane, black carbon, and HFCs could significantly slow the rate of global warming over the next 25 years and increase agricultural yields. 3) Controlling emissions pathways in the near-term is important to reduce risks to current and future generations from climate change impacts, limit temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and support achievement of UN Sustainable Development Goals.

1. The Pathway to the Climate Target:
Reducing the Risk for Current & Future Generations
Thanks to many colleagues, especially M. Amann, M. Brauer, A. Haines, J. Kuylenstierna,
V. Ramanathan, A. Ravishankara, L. Srivastava, N. Borgford-Parnell, and S. Leonard
Drew Shindell
Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University
&
Scientific Advisory Panel (Chair), Climate and Clean Air Coalition

2. Global Warming to Date
Data from NASA GISS
-0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
GlobalMeanAnnualAvgTemperaturevs1880-
1919
2015
2016 (first
8 months)
X
0.0

3. Factor Response
to CO2
Response
to CH4
Heat  
Drought  
Fertilization  −
Ozone − 
Shindell, Earth’s Future, 2016
Agriculture & SLCPs
Projected yield increases:
Low vs High Emissions
Carbon dioxide: 3%
Methane: 16%
HFCs: 5%

4. Why do we need to control the pathway?

5. Why do we need to control the pathway?

6. Why do we need to control the pathway?

7. Why do we need to control the pathway?

8. Why do we need to control the pathway?

9. Keep current long-term target
Add new goal of slowing global warming during next 25
years by half
Would require reducing BC-related emissions ~75%,
anthropogenic methane ~25%, eliminating growth in HFCs
by 2030
Pathway addresses near-term impacts, pace of change, and
climate-SDGs link
The Pathway to the Target