CCXG Forum, September 2023, Elizabeth Connelly

OECD Environment
OECD EnvironmentOECD Environment
Page 1
Tracking EV Progress
13 September 2023
Elizabeth Connelly, PhD
IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 2
Sales of electric cars were up 55% in 2022, led by China, Europe and the United States.
2023 is set to be another record year.
0%
10%
20%
30%
0
5
10
15
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e
Million
Rest of world
United States
Europe
China
Global sales share
Electric car sales exceeded 10 million in 2022
Electric car sales
IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
'18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
India Indonesia Thailand Other emerging
markets
Thousands
Other
Other Latin America
Mexico
Brazil
Other Asia
Electric cars are beginning to sell in emerging economies
Although motorcycles are generally much more prevalent in emerging economies,
electric car sales jumped in India, Indonesia and Thailand in particular.
Electric car sales
IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 4
Transport electrification is not only about cars
Electrification is already widespread among two-/three-wheelers.
Sales of electric buses are picking up; trucks are the next frontier for electrification.
EV sales share in 2022
0%
5%
10%
15%
Cars Two- and three-
wheelers
Buses Trucks
Rest of world
India
United States
Europe
China
IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 5
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
GEVO-2022 GEVO-2023
STEPS
Other
Europe
United States
China
APS
Policy implementation is catching up with targets
A strong growth outlook to 2030 is underpinned by governments delivering on their pledges and market dynamics.
Today’s policies are set to avoid over 5 mb/d of oil consumption in 2030.
Oil displacement in STEPS, 2030
Electric car sales share, 2030
- 6
- 5
- 4
- 3
- 2
- 1
0
mb/d
Cars
Two- and three-
wheelers
Buses
Trucks
IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 6
Industry announcements suggest that more ambition is possible
The automotive industry and its supply chains are transforming.
Policy must ensure that investment flows effectively to all steps of the supply chain.
Electric car sales share, 2030 Battery manufacturing capacity, 2030
0%
20%
40%
60%
World
Range of carmaker
announcements
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
World
TWh
per
year
Announcements
Today
NZE NZE
IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 7
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CCXG Forum, September 2023, Elizabeth Connelly

  • 1. Page 1 Tracking EV Progress 13 September 2023 Elizabeth Connelly, PhD
  • 2. IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 2 Sales of electric cars were up 55% in 2022, led by China, Europe and the United States. 2023 is set to be another record year. 0% 10% 20% 30% 0 5 10 15 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e Million Rest of world United States Europe China Global sales share Electric car sales exceeded 10 million in 2022 Electric car sales
  • 3. IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 India Indonesia Thailand Other emerging markets Thousands Other Other Latin America Mexico Brazil Other Asia Electric cars are beginning to sell in emerging economies Although motorcycles are generally much more prevalent in emerging economies, electric car sales jumped in India, Indonesia and Thailand in particular. Electric car sales
  • 4. IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 4 Transport electrification is not only about cars Electrification is already widespread among two-/three-wheelers. Sales of electric buses are picking up; trucks are the next frontier for electrification. EV sales share in 2022 0% 5% 10% 15% Cars Two- and three- wheelers Buses Trucks Rest of world India United States Europe China
  • 5. IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% GEVO-2022 GEVO-2023 STEPS Other Europe United States China APS Policy implementation is catching up with targets A strong growth outlook to 2030 is underpinned by governments delivering on their pledges and market dynamics. Today’s policies are set to avoid over 5 mb/d of oil consumption in 2030. Oil displacement in STEPS, 2030 Electric car sales share, 2030 - 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 0 mb/d Cars Two- and three- wheelers Buses Trucks
  • 6. IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 6 Industry announcements suggest that more ambition is possible The automotive industry and its supply chains are transforming. Policy must ensure that investment flows effectively to all steps of the supply chain. Electric car sales share, 2030 Battery manufacturing capacity, 2030 0% 20% 40% 60% World Range of carmaker announcements 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 World TWh per year Announcements Today NZE NZE
  • 7. IEA 2023. All rights reserved. Page 7