1. Forced Displacement in
Climate Change Adaptation
OECD Working Party on Climate Change
28 September 2023
Jens Hesemann, Snr Policy Advisor, Development Co-operation Directorate (DCD)

2. • 3.3 – 3.6 billion people live in contexts vulnerable to climate
change
• Highly climate vulnerable countries host 40% of global refugees,
and 70% of conflict IDPs
→In 2022, global forced displacement crossed the 100 million people
mark
• Climate change exacerbates and drives forced displacement:
– Sudden onset (disasters more frequent and severe, inter-play with
conflict)
– Slow onset
• Displacement can increase pre-existing fragilities in hosting
areas (incl. environmental resource degradation)
Forced displacement risk

3. • Responses to forced displacement have largely
been humanitarian
• Widening consensus on a “Humanitarian-
Development-Peace Nexus Approach”:
1. Support the mitigation of shocks to host
communities and the displaced themselves
2. Include the forcibly displaced in development
and climate change planning
3. Address recurring drivers (prevent) and prepare
for future displacement
The HDP Nexus approach to forced
displacement

4. Key to include in
National
Adaptation Plans
and Nationally
Determined
Contributions
(NAPs & NDCs)
Climate change
adaptation
planning must
address
displacement
Forced displacement matters to
climate change adaptation
Displacement
requires a
development
approach
Countries are
susceptible to
displacement
crises
Coping through
displacement
raises
vulnerability
Climate change
drives new
displacement &
harms existing
displaced
populations

5. What can climate change adaptation do?
• Contribute to prevention of displacement
• Address forced displacement that can no-longer be
averted – “Loss and Damage”
• Support existing displaced living in “climate traps”
• Help countries and societies cope with forced
displacement in a structural and predictable
manner
• Thereby avert severe humanitarian crisis

6. So does climate change adaption
address forced displacement?
• 64% of
NAPs/NDCs do
not explicitly
include forced
displacement (67%
of states)
• Only 21% of 208
plans include
concrete actionable
provisions
NAPs
NDCs

7. Concrete provisions in 43 NAPs/NDCs, but
rarely comprehensive
• 48% of NAPs / 14% of NDCs with
concrete provisions
• Much-needed impetus, yet rarely
comprehensive approach
• + 23 NAPs/NDCs with contextual
references only
• Mainly reference to internal
displacement; only 9 in 10 States
include reference to cross-border
displacement, while in reality there are
often regional / global dimensions
→ inclusion of non-citizens displaced by climate
change is more political
Address CC-
displacement
situations
35%
Prevent CC-
displacement
23%
Enhance
knowledge &
data
21%
Improve
governance
15%
Capacity
building
6%
Objectives of identified
provisions

8. Most states fail to address climate
effects on existing displaced persons
• Gap for 96% of
states (96% of
NDCs, 74% of NAPs)
• Concrete provisions
too few and often
superficial
(1) Protection (2) Vulnerability assessments,
↑ adaptive capacity/resilience
(3) Related pressures (4) Potential conflict
implications
(5) Mainstreaming
climate change
Identified categories of action

9. Legal frameworks and policies remain
fragmented
International commitments fragmented, often non-binding,
and insufficiently implemented
• Cross-border displacement: 1951 Refugee Convention does not apply to climate
change or disaster driven forced displacement; regional refugee conventions
possibly more inclusive; some specific national legislation
• Internal displacement: Mainly non-binding soft law
Entry points:
• Some scope through regional/subregional and soft law
norms on human mobility
• Norms in other arenas provide potential but come with own
limits
• Potential of climate frameworks/plans needs to be leveraged
more, including through NAPs and NDCs
Other arenas
Policies specifically on displacement /
human mobility
Intl.
human rights
Development
agenda
Disaster risk
reduction & humanit.
action
Conflict, security &
peacebuilding
Climate and environmental change
→including NAPs & NDCs
Entry points & gaps analysis in the
paper

10. Financing
• Action on displacement should be financed as an inclusive
component of climate change adaptation priorities,
and not through separate fragmented mechanisms
• HDP nexus approach important – not just humanitarian
• NAPs and NDCs are fundamental to mobilize will and access
to funding
Challenges
• Significant overall funding gap for climate change adaptation
• Little evidence / knowledge about concrete good practices
impedes funding allocations

11. Policy recommendations
Bring climate
change
adaptation
and
displacement
experts
together
Include explicit,
actionable
provisions on
climate-related
displacement in
adaption
planning
Think
comprehen
sive and
long-term
(HDP
nexus
approach)
Reach
beyond
borders:
Regional
and global
approaches

12. Thank you.
Questions and comments are welcome.
Forthcoming OECD Development Policy Paper
(DCD/DEV):
“No longer a blind spot: Forced displacement
in climate change adaptation”
OECD Development Matters Blog on the topic