1. Report on recent activities of the
secretariat
1st WPCC meeting
27-28 September 2023
Marcia Rocha
Climate, Biodiversity and Water Division (CBW)
Environment Directorate
Working Party on
Triggering positive tipping points to deal
with risks of crossing climate tipping points

2. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
2
Working Party on
Overview of presentation
1. Climate tipping points: implications for policy
2. Outlook and future work
• Implications of different net-zero emissions trajectories for
the risk of crossing climate tipping points
• Positive tipping points
3. Questions for discussions

3. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
3
Working Party on
Climate Tipping Points
Implications for policy
The OECD reviews the most recent
scientific information on climate
tipping points and discusses the
implications for policy making NOW
and in the near future of our increasing
knowledge on tipping points

4. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
4
Working Party on
Current
warming
Paris
Agreement
NDCs
Current
policies
Climate Tipping Points
Implications for policy
OECD
(2022),
Climate
Tipping
Points:
Insights
for
Effective
Policy
Action,
OECD
Publishing,
Paris,
https://doi.org/10.1787/abc5a69e-en.

5. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
5
Working Party on
Implications of global GHG emission trajectories by
2050 for overshooting 1.5°C
OECD (2022), Climate Tipping Points: Insights for Effective Policy Action, OECD Publishing,
Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/abc5a69e-en.

6. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
6
Working Party on
Implications of different net-zero emissions trajectories
for the risk of crossing climate tipping points
• Provide a better understanding of how key
aspects of climate change related to
tipping points may unfold in these different
futures and the potential global and regional
impacts;
• Explore the implications for policy in the
near-term arising from these different levels
of climate risk, and how these can be
integrated in risk management strategies
today (e.g. extent of and balance between
mitigation and adaptation action and
approaches for effective policy decision
making given uncertainty)
emissions
2050
2015
Net-zero
in 2050

7. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
7
Working Party on
“A tipping point is a critical threshold beyond which
a system reorganises, often abruptly and/or
irreversibly and a tipping element is an Earth
system component that is susceptible to a tipping
point.” (IPCC)
1. Small, discrete changes catalysing a much larger
transformation
2. The changes to the system are abrupt and/or
irreversible, or at least long-lasting
3. Self-perpetuating - once set in motion, changes
are difficult to halt
A conceptual basis for positive change?
7
How can the integration of the risks of
climate tipping points can lead to accelerated
action – positive tipping points
https://climatescience.org/advanced-climate-climate-tipping-points

8. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
8
Working Party on
Climate policy implications of positive
tipping points characteristics
• Could contribute to deep & rapid emission reductions, by
accelerating transition
• Suggests sensitive intervention points → amplified impact
(policy efficiency)
• Self-reinforcing behaviour has implications for policy design
Need to understand the system dynamics underpinning positive
tipping points

9. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
9
Working Party on
Key attributes of positive tipping points
Exponential growth and positive reinforcing feedbacks
Economies of scale
Learning curves
Network effects
Behavioural factors
Social norms and peer effects
R&D and human capital spill-overs

10. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
10
Working Party on
• Kick-off workshop “Identifying Positive tipping points”
(18 and 21 September, OECD)
• Undertake visioning exercises, discussions on feedback effects
and barriers, action planning, and group reflections to:
• Identify potential positive tipping points
• Identify areas of OECD work that could contribute
Initial activities

11. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
11
Working Party on
Potential areas identified
Measurement and Accounting
o Firm level
o Alternatives to GDP
o Financial sector (ESG)
Collective Narrative and
Education
o Overcoming polarization/social media
bubbles/information ecosystem
o Building fairness and trust
o Agency
Green incentives
• Procurement
• Tax
• Innovation
• Industrial Policy
• Green bonds
International Cooperation
• Overcoming collective action
• Coalitions of the willing
• Coercion v cooperation
• Supranational governance
Behavioural and
Social Transformations
• Demand-side policies
• Choice architecture (nudges, green
defaults)
• Social norms and acceptability

12. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
12
Working Party on
Outlook
• Continue building on cross-directorate network, imagine the
best possible future scenarios and develop robust ways to
realise them
• Building synergies but don't reinvent the wheel – a lot of
work already undertaken across can inform/feed in to this
exercise

13. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
13
Working Party on
Questions
• The threat of tipping points means it is not just about getting to net-
zero by mid-century, but also about how we get there, with avoiding
long and high overshoot of 1.5C during this century particularly
important:
• How can we integrate this pathway thinking into policy making that has only
just embraced the net-zero target in the first place?
• Is this pathway thinking considered in your national climate plans and if so,
how?
• Understanding that resources are limited and voluntary
contributions to extend and deepen this work would be needed, are
there priority areas for exploring positive tipping points?

14. Report on recent activities of the
secretariat
Working Party on
Thank you
Marcia Rocha