Item 11. Droughts and water scarcity.pdf

OECD Environment
OECD EnvironmentOECD Environment
Report on recent activities of the
secretariat
1st Meeting of the WPCC
27-28 September 2023
Catherine Gamper and Sophie Lavayd
Climate, Biodiversity and Water Division (CBW)
Environment Directorate
Working Party on
Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
Overview of presentation
2
Working Party on
1. Adapting to a changing climate in the management of droughts
2. Case study: Strengthening climate resilience to water scarcity in Paris
3. Future work on droughts
Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
3
Working Party on
Adapting to a changing climate in the
management of droughts
➢ Droughts affect all parts of the world;
➢ Droughts …
… accelerate land degradation, aquatic ecosystem degradation;
… increase water insecurity, inequalities, displacements;
… produce significant economic impacts (agriculture, energy, tourism,
freight transportation, housing..);
Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
4
Working Party on
➢ USA: 2012/13 droughts (USA, Mex, Eastern Canada):
• Low winter precipitation, extreme summer heat;
• Decreased yields, supply shortfall, food price increase;
• Lower water levels in major river: decreased trade;
• Estimated losses of USD 35 in mid-west; estimated 0.5-1%
in national GDP (= USD 150 billion);
➢ Europe 2003 droughts
• Significant precipitation deficits, extreme heat, increased
evapotranspiration;
• Decreased yields of wheat and maize by 30%;
• Extreme low water discharge;
• USD 13 billion losses; 100 million people affected
Source: IPCC 2022, 6th Assessment report
Adapting to a changing climate in the
management of droughts
Global average drought risk 1901-2010
Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
5
Working Party on
Adapting to a changing climate in the
management of droughts
➢ Climate change has and will make droughts more frequent
and more intense (IPCC, 6th assessment report)
• Number of areas and people affected by droughts in
Europe rose by 20% between 1976 and 2006;
• Climate change estimated to have made the 2013
droughts 46% more severe (Science: Williams et al, 2020)
• Drought frequency and intensity to increase with every
0.5 degree warming (IPCCC, 2021)
• Megadroughts (10+ years) likelihood to increase from
12 to more than 60% in RCP 4.5 (NASA,2015)
Change in land area exposed to meteorological drought
Source: World Bank Group (2022): Droughts and Deficits: the Global Impact of Droughts on Economic Growth.
Report on recent activities of the
secretariat
Working Party on
ADAPTING TO WATER SCARCITY INDUCED
BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN PARIS
Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
The project
7
Working Party on
• Assess prospective drought-induced water scarcity impacts
• Assess the robustness of the resilience framework of the
Parisian area
• Foster a dialogue and raise awareness on possible resilience
measures
Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
The rationale for the project
8
Working Party on
Reference period (1976-2005) Mid-term horizon (2041-2070), RCP 4.5
• More frequent and
severe drought
projected
• Hydrological droughts
up to 10 times longer
• River flow decrease
from 10 to 30% by 2050
Projected droughts in Paris area
Source: OECD calculations
Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
The rationale for the project
9
Working Party on
• ↑ irrigation
needs of 30% by
2050
• ↑ drinking water
consumption of
5% by 2050
Source: OECD calculations
% of irrigated
land area by
2050
Source: Agence de l’Eau Seine Normandie, Etat des lieux 2019
• Projected water consumption
Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
An exposed area
10
Working Party on
Economic
activities
• 32.6% of the french
GDP
• Major port facilities
and importance of
fluvial transportation
• Major industrial area
and most important
touristic region
globally
• 50% of land used for
agriculture
Energy
consumers
• 25% of the french
energy
consumption
• Cooling and
heating
distribution
networks as well
as energy
facilities
Ecosystems
• 24% of forested
areas
• 1300 animal
species, 630
vegetal species
• Wetlands and
biological
reservois
Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
A national and local concern
11
Working Party on
Paris Climate risk assessment in 2021 and pending update of the
climate resilience strategy of the city
Greater Paris
Metropolis
Climate, Air, Energy Plan in 2018 highlighting possible conflicts
over water
Public Basin
institution
Economic assessment of the impacts of water reservoirs on
the Seine River Basin, 2022
Region Climate resilience strategy, December 2022 with a focus on
water resources
France National water plan, April 2023 to propose measures to adapt
to water scarcity
Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
A collaborative approach
12
Working Party on
• A written questionnaire
• More than 100
interviews conducted
• Collaboration with an
economic research lab
Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
An opportunity for peer learning
13
Working Party on
• 3 experts from
Barcelona, London and
the Netherlands
• 3 days of interviews with
stakeholders in Paris
• An international
workshop to share best
practices
Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
Next steps
14
Working Party on
• Policy dialogue
• Draft report
• Launch in March 2024 aligned with publication of the
new resilience strategy of the city of Paris
Report on recent activities of the
secretariat
Working Party on
FUTURE WORK ON DROUGHTS
Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
16
Working Party on
Rainfall
variability/Decrease in
precipitations
Increase in
temperatures
Meteorological (Lack of
precipitation)
Agricultural or Soil drought (Water scarcity for soils,
ecosystems)
Hydrological drought (Lower water flows, water recharge)
Water scarcity for human activities
Men-made
drivers
Time
duration Source: Inspired from UNDRR 2021
Adapting to a changing climate in the
management of droughts
What is the policy challenge?
➢ Difficult to predict and to monitor;
• Need for prospective vulnerability studies;
• Need for common assessment frameworks;
• Droughts are a silent, slow-onset risk;
➢ Affect all sectors;
• Measures undertaken in one sector affect drought
impacts in others;
• Need for consistent policies;
• Floods & droughts: two sides of the same coin;
➢ Different drought types require different policy
responses;
Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
Suggested scope of oecd work
17
Working Party on
➢ Stock-take exercise
• Establish state of play of different types of drought risk under changing climatic conditions
• Overview of expected environmental, social and economic consequences of different types of droughts
➢ Review existing policy responses
• Desk-based review and country-focused case studies
• Evaluate whether existing policy responses are fit for future expected drought risks
➢ Policy dialogue
• Initial drought risk conference
• Country focused policy dialogues
• International workshops
➢ Flagship report
• Brings together recommendations and a policy toolkit for countries to strengthen future drought resilience
Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC)
Questions for discussion
18
Working Party on
➢ How can this work be made most relevant for your
country?
➢ Would you like to support our work on droughts
and water scarcity in the future?
1 sur 18

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Item 11. Droughts and water scarcity.pdf

  • 1. Report on recent activities of the secretariat 1st Meeting of the WPCC 27-28 September 2023 Catherine Gamper and Sophie Lavayd Climate, Biodiversity and Water Division (CBW) Environment Directorate Working Party on
  • 2. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) Overview of presentation 2 Working Party on 1. Adapting to a changing climate in the management of droughts 2. Case study: Strengthening climate resilience to water scarcity in Paris 3. Future work on droughts
  • 3. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) 3 Working Party on Adapting to a changing climate in the management of droughts ➢ Droughts affect all parts of the world; ➢ Droughts … … accelerate land degradation, aquatic ecosystem degradation; … increase water insecurity, inequalities, displacements; … produce significant economic impacts (agriculture, energy, tourism, freight transportation, housing..);
  • 4. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) 4 Working Party on ➢ USA: 2012/13 droughts (USA, Mex, Eastern Canada): • Low winter precipitation, extreme summer heat; • Decreased yields, supply shortfall, food price increase; • Lower water levels in major river: decreased trade; • Estimated losses of USD 35 in mid-west; estimated 0.5-1% in national GDP (= USD 150 billion); ➢ Europe 2003 droughts • Significant precipitation deficits, extreme heat, increased evapotranspiration; • Decreased yields of wheat and maize by 30%; • Extreme low water discharge; • USD 13 billion losses; 100 million people affected Source: IPCC 2022, 6th Assessment report Adapting to a changing climate in the management of droughts Global average drought risk 1901-2010
  • 5. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) 5 Working Party on Adapting to a changing climate in the management of droughts ➢ Climate change has and will make droughts more frequent and more intense (IPCC, 6th assessment report) • Number of areas and people affected by droughts in Europe rose by 20% between 1976 and 2006; • Climate change estimated to have made the 2013 droughts 46% more severe (Science: Williams et al, 2020) • Drought frequency and intensity to increase with every 0.5 degree warming (IPCCC, 2021) • Megadroughts (10+ years) likelihood to increase from 12 to more than 60% in RCP 4.5 (NASA,2015) Change in land area exposed to meteorological drought Source: World Bank Group (2022): Droughts and Deficits: the Global Impact of Droughts on Economic Growth.
  • 6. Report on recent activities of the secretariat Working Party on ADAPTING TO WATER SCARCITY INDUCED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN PARIS
  • 7. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) The project 7 Working Party on • Assess prospective drought-induced water scarcity impacts • Assess the robustness of the resilience framework of the Parisian area • Foster a dialogue and raise awareness on possible resilience measures
  • 8. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) The rationale for the project 8 Working Party on Reference period (1976-2005) Mid-term horizon (2041-2070), RCP 4.5 • More frequent and severe drought projected • Hydrological droughts up to 10 times longer • River flow decrease from 10 to 30% by 2050 Projected droughts in Paris area Source: OECD calculations
  • 9. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) The rationale for the project 9 Working Party on • ↑ irrigation needs of 30% by 2050 • ↑ drinking water consumption of 5% by 2050 Source: OECD calculations % of irrigated land area by 2050 Source: Agence de l’Eau Seine Normandie, Etat des lieux 2019 • Projected water consumption
  • 10. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) An exposed area 10 Working Party on Economic activities • 32.6% of the french GDP • Major port facilities and importance of fluvial transportation • Major industrial area and most important touristic region globally • 50% of land used for agriculture Energy consumers • 25% of the french energy consumption • Cooling and heating distribution networks as well as energy facilities Ecosystems • 24% of forested areas • 1300 animal species, 630 vegetal species • Wetlands and biological reservois
  • 11. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) A national and local concern 11 Working Party on Paris Climate risk assessment in 2021 and pending update of the climate resilience strategy of the city Greater Paris Metropolis Climate, Air, Energy Plan in 2018 highlighting possible conflicts over water Public Basin institution Economic assessment of the impacts of water reservoirs on the Seine River Basin, 2022 Region Climate resilience strategy, December 2022 with a focus on water resources France National water plan, April 2023 to propose measures to adapt to water scarcity
  • 12. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) A collaborative approach 12 Working Party on • A written questionnaire • More than 100 interviews conducted • Collaboration with an economic research lab
  • 13. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) An opportunity for peer learning 13 Working Party on • 3 experts from Barcelona, London and the Netherlands • 3 days of interviews with stakeholders in Paris • An international workshop to share best practices
  • 14. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) Next steps 14 Working Party on • Policy dialogue • Draft report • Launch in March 2024 aligned with publication of the new resilience strategy of the city of Paris
  • 15. Report on recent activities of the secretariat Working Party on FUTURE WORK ON DROUGHTS
  • 16. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) 16 Working Party on Rainfall variability/Decrease in precipitations Increase in temperatures Meteorological (Lack of precipitation) Agricultural or Soil drought (Water scarcity for soils, ecosystems) Hydrological drought (Lower water flows, water recharge) Water scarcity for human activities Men-made drivers Time duration Source: Inspired from UNDRR 2021 Adapting to a changing climate in the management of droughts What is the policy challenge? ➢ Difficult to predict and to monitor; • Need for prospective vulnerability studies; • Need for common assessment frameworks; • Droughts are a silent, slow-onset risk; ➢ Affect all sectors; • Measures undertaken in one sector affect drought impacts in others; • Need for consistent policies; • Floods & droughts: two sides of the same coin; ➢ Different drought types require different policy responses;
  • 17. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) Suggested scope of oecd work 17 Working Party on ➢ Stock-take exercise • Establish state of play of different types of drought risk under changing climatic conditions • Overview of expected environmental, social and economic consequences of different types of droughts ➢ Review existing policy responses • Desk-based review and country-focused case studies • Evaluate whether existing policy responses are fit for future expected drought risks ➢ Policy dialogue • Initial drought risk conference • Country focused policy dialogues • International workshops ➢ Flagship report • Brings together recommendations and a policy toolkit for countries to strengthen future drought resilience
  • 18. Working Party on Climate Change (WPCC) Questions for discussion 18 Working Party on ➢ How can this work be made most relevant for your country? ➢ Would you like to support our work on droughts and water scarcity in the future?