2. 9/27/2013 - No more than one trillion metric
tons of carbon could be burned and gases
released into the atmosphere if planetary
warming is to be kept below 3.6 degrees
Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above the
level of preindustrial times.
9/27/2013 - It’s still possible to avoid the worst climate impacts if global
emissions to peak by 2020 at the latest (and the earlier the better), with
substantial declines in emissions afterwards.
One trillion tons
2020

5. 1950
0
1
o
C
2000 2200215021002050
RCP8.5
Business-as-usual
2.2 trillion tons carbon
3
o
C
2
o
C
8
o
C
7
o
C
6
o
C
5
o
C
4
o
C
RCP6.0
emissions peak 2080
1.6 trillion tons carbon
RCP4.5
emissions peak 2040-50
1.3 trillion tons carbon
IncreaseinAverageGlobalTemperature
Global Temperature Projections for various RCP Scenarios
Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2013, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
2013

6. 1950
0
1
o
C
2000 2200215021002050
3
o
C
2
o
C
8
o
C
7
o
C
6
o
C
5
o
C
4
o
C
RCP2.6
0.8 trillion tons carbon
emissions peak 2020
IncreaseinAverageGlobalTemperature
Global Temperature Projections for various RCP Scenarios
Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2013, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
2013
RCP8.5
Business-as-usual
2.1 trillion tons carbon
RCP6.0
emissions peak 2080
1.4 trillion tons carbon
RCP4.5
emissions peak 2040-50
1.2 trillion tons carbon

8. THE
OPPORTUNITY
Urban environments emit 75% of all global GHGs

9. will be constructed in cities worldwide.
of new and rebuilt buildings
Sources:
UN Habitat, State of the World’s Cities 2010/2011; McKinsey Global Institute.
THE
OPPORTUNITY
80 billion m2 (900 billion ft2)
By 2030, over

10. Sources:
UN Habitat, State of the World’s Cities 2010/2011; McKinsey Global Institute.
An area equal to 60% of the
entire building stock of the world,
60%
with energy and emissions patterns
locked-in for 80 to 120 years!

11. China US / Canada Other
Emerging
%ShareofGrowth
30%
20%
10%
Global Floor Space Growth (2012 – 2030)
Source:
McKinsey Global Institute, Urban World: Cities and the rise of the consuming class, 2012.
India Latin
America
Middle East
Africa
38%
15%
12%
9% 9% 9%
China • US/Canada
53%
Western
Europe
Other
Developed
4% 4%

12. 2015
2020
COP 21
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
+5% to -15%
-70% to -85%
-55% to -70%
-35% to -55%
-15% to -35%
ZERO
ROADMAP TO ZERO EMISSIONS
CO2 EMISSIONS TARGETS
(baseline 2015)
-85% to -100%

13. 1. Developed Countries (annual)
Renovate 1% - 2% of building stock
50% energy reduction
2. Developing Countries (annual)
Renovate .5% - 1% of building stock
50% energy reduction
4. Establish Financing Facility
(Developing Countries)
Finance items 2 and 3 above.
3. Build New to the Following Targets
(All Countries)
70% energy reduction in 2015
80% energy reduction in 2020
90% energy reduction in 2025
ZNE in 2030
ROADMAP TO ZERO EMISSIONS

14. 2020
emissions peak
Reduction targets range
RCP2.6
1500
2000
1000
CO2EMISSIONS
(millionmetrictons)
0
500
208020702060205020402030
ROADMAP 20/80: Building Sector Zero CO2 Emissions in 2080
20202000 2010
emissions
2000 - 2015
2015
Source: Architecture 2030: Data adapted from the World Bank CO2 emissions from residential
buildings and commercial and public services; and the EIA International Energy Outlook 2013.
2500
ROADMAP
Global
Building Sector
3000
3500

15. PROGRESS?

17. 2007
Sec. 433 of EISA
Fossil Fuel Reduction
55% - 2010
65% - 2015
80% - 2020
90% - 2025
100% - 2030

18. Seattle

19. Zero Net Energy for Residential Buildings by 2020
Zero Net Energy for Commercial Buildings by 2030
CALIFORNIA’S
COMMITMENT

20. Unique private/public partnerships
! Property owners and managers
! Local governments
! Business/community stakeholders

21. •
SEATTLE
•
CLEVELAND
•
PITTSBURGH
•
LOS
ANGELES
•
DENVER
TORONTO
DALLAS
DETROIT
FT.
WORTH
PHOENIX
SAN
ANTONIO
SAN
FRANCISCO
WASHINGTON,
DC
SYRACUSE
ITHICA
ANN
ARBOR
ATLANTA
ALBUQUERQUE
STAMFORD

22. EIA AEO 2013
48
44
36
(908 Mtoe)
52
QBtu
Quadrillion Btu
Source: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (EIA AEO)!
U.S. Building Operations 2005 - 2030
-16.8 QBtu
40
(1008 Mtoe)
EIA AEO 2014
(early release)
310 – 1000MW
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
56
(1412 Mtoe)

23. EIA AEO 2013
48
44
36
(908 Mtoe)
52
QBtu
Quadrillion Btu
Source: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (EIA AEO)!
U.S. Building Operations 2005 - 2030
-16.8 QBtu
40
(1008 Mtoe)
EIA AEO 2013
best available demand technology
EIA AEO 2014
(early release)
-6.9 QBtu
310 – 1000MW
128 – 1000MW
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
56
(1412 Mtoe)

24. EIA AEO 2013
48
44
36
(908 Mtoe)
52
QBtu
Quadrillion Btu
Source: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (EIA AEO)!
U.S. Building Operations 2005 - 2030
-16.8 QBtu
40
(1008 Mtoe)
2013
$4.61 Trillion
$560 Billion
$1.94 Trillion
EIA AEO 2013
best available demand technology
EIA AEO 2014
(early release)
-6.9 QBtu
310 – 1000MW
128 – 1000MW
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
56
(1412 Mtoe)

25. Sustainable / Zero Carbon
URBANIZATION

26. Step 2.
Step 1.
GETTING TO ZERO CARBON
ZERO CARBON
Information
Technology

27. Renewables
20%-30%
Step 1.
Step 2.
GETTING TO ZERO CARBON
ZERO CARBON
Design &
Planning
• Sustainable
• Adaptable
70%-80%
(no cost / low cost)

28. INFORMATION GAP
• Highly technical
• Compartmentalized
• Limited applicability
• Limited audience
• Inaccessible format

29. Bridge the GAP
• Global in scope
• Local in application
• User friendly / visual
• Freely accessible
• Interconnected across all scales
• Mitigation / adaptation

30. REGION
CITY / TOWN
DISTRICT
SITE
BUILDING
Bridge the GAP
2030 Palette
www.2030palette.org