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Session 7b: Scene-setting- Transport Sector Decarbonization Strategy in Indonesia - Dail Umamil Asri-Bappenas

  1. DIRECTORATE OF TRANSPORTATION DEPUTY INFRASTRUCTURE KEMENTERIAN PPN/BAPPENAS Bogor, March 8th 2023 Transport Sector Decarbonization Issues and Strategy in Indonesia
  2. 2 INDONESIA’S VISION 2045 1 ENERGY ISSUES IN TRANSPORT SECTOR 2 3 ❑ Urban Mass Public Transport System ❑ Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) ❑ Electric Vehicle ❑ Energy Transition in Shipments ❑ Green Ports POLICIES:
  3. DOMINANT FACTORS OF TRANSPORTATION 2045 3 There are five dominant factors in creating the national transportation system in 2045 Determining Factors Formative Factors Visi Indonesia 2045 Sustainable Development Goals Digital, Knowledge Based Economy Revolusi Industri 4.0 Global Mega Trends Delivery Factors Sumber: Suyono dalam RITN, 2019 Variable Factors Triggering Factors
  4. INDONESIA’S VISION 2045 4 Human Development and Mastery of Science, Knowledge, and Technology Sustainable Economic Development Equality in Development Strengthening National Resilience and Governance 4 Pilar Visi Indonesia Emas2045 Indonesia has a vision to become a developed country by 2045, with the 5th highest GDP in the world and the role of the Eastern Indonesia Region (KTI) reaching 25%. Inclusive and sustainable growth is needed to achieve this vision. A developed country with the 5th highest GDP Contribution of the KTI to the national economy 25% Rata-rata pertumbuhan(%) 2035 2040 2045 2015 2020 2025 2030 Sumber: Bappenas, pemutakhiran exercise pasca COVID-19 4,890 6.278 11.332 15.287 8.387 3.870 3.430 2043 Exit from Middle Income Trap (MIT) PDB perkapita (USD) 3,6% 5,4% 5,9% 6,7% 6,8% 6,6% 2019/2020 Becoming an upper- middle income country (USD 4.050) RPJMN 2020-2024 as starting point to achieve vision 2045 SDGs2017-2030
  5. INDONESIA’S VISION 2045 5 6 MAJORS STRATEGIES IN REDESIGNING INDONESIA’S INCLUSIVE AND SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION BY UTLILIZING TPB/SDGS AS THE MAIN INSTRUMENT Strategy #1 Competitive Human Resources: • Health • Education (Education system and character education) • Social Protection • Research and Innovation Strategy #2 Productivity of Economic Sectors: • Labor productivity • Agricultiral modernization • Industrialization • Strengthening SMEs • Modernization of service sector Strategy #3 Green Economy • Energy Mix • Clean Transportation • Waste Management • Climate Change • Blue Economy Strategy #5 Strategy #4 Digital Transformation • Human Resources • Digital Infrastructure • Digital Development • Digital Utilization Strategy #6 Relocation of the National Capital • Balanced regional growth • Source of new economic growth Domestic Economic Integration: (economic powerhouse) • Connectivity Infrastructure: Superhub, Sea Hub, Air Hub • Development of economic corridors/ regions • Domestic Value Chain “Not Business As Usual To Build Forward Better”
  6. INDONESIA’S VISION 2045 6 Developing Equitable and Integrated Infrastructure Focusof TransportationSector Development ❑ Completion ofmainroads andconnecting routesacross theislands ❑ Mass urban public transportation andhigh-speed trains toanticipate mega-urbanization and urbanization ❑ Seaandairtransportation tosupport mobility andinter-regional distribution ofgoods ❑ Seatransportation asamainelementofmaritimeconnectivity ❑ Development ofaerocityareasandseaplane airports Legenda Kota Besar/Sedang Ruas Jalan Utama & Tol Ruas Kereta Api Bandara Aerocity Jalur Palapa Ring PLTN Pelabuhan Jaringan Broadband 100 Gbps Konsumsi listrik 7 ribu KwH/jiwa/tahun Biaya Logistik 8% dari PDB
  7. ENERGY ISSUES IN TRANSPORT SECTOR (1/3) In 2050, we are still dependent on fossil-based energy. Transportation will consume 1.562 million BOE (barrels of oil equivalent) of energy in 2050, with 62% of it coming from petroleum- based fuels. Energy Consumption per Capita (ESDM, 2015) 7 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Konsumsi Per Kapita 3,71 4,34 5,78 7,33 9,35 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 BOE/Kapita Konsumsi Per Kapita Final Energy Requirements (in million BOE) by Sector
  8. ENERGY ISSUES IN TRANSPORT SECTOR (2/3) PENGARUH SUBSIDI BBM Energy Consumption Share in Transportation The energy demand in transportation sector is projected to grow by around 4.6% annually and will require 4.6 times more energy by the year 2050 compared to the base year of 2016. It is predicted that energy consumption for the transportation sector will be dominated by the use of private vehicles (cars and motorcycles). Energy Consumption in Transport Sector 53% of fuel subsidies are used by private vehicles. Fuel subsidies are less appropriate in implementing the use of renewable energy. The trend that is occurring is an increase in fuel demand and concentration (without causing a shift to public transportation). 8 Sumber: Indonesia Energy Outlook 2016 dan 2018 ▪ Transportation is the second largest sector contributing to CO2 emissions after power generation ▪ Land transportation is the biggest contributor to CO2 emissions
  9. ENERGY ISSUES IN TRANSPORT SECTOR (3/3) 9 Projection of Energy Demand per Mode of Land Transportation in 2035 (ESDM, 2015) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Philippines Thailand Indonesia Average Malaysia Vietnam Singapore ASEAN Citizens Want to Buy Electric Cars (Frost & Sullivan, 2020) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Angkutan Barang 13,41 13,72 14,18 14,75 15,48 16,34 17,36 18,56 19,94 21,53 23,34 25,39 27,67 30,22 33,22 36,14 39,58 43,35 47,49 52,01 56,95 Bus 6,37 6,63 6,89 7,16 7,44 7,73 8,23 8,23 8,94 8,94 9,27 9,6 9,95 10,3 10,66 11,03 11,42 11,81 12,22 12,65 13,09 Kendaraan Penumpang 8,66 9,41 10,21 11,07 12 13 15,23 15,23 17,83 17,83 19,28 20,85 22,53 24,34 26,29 28,38 30,64 33,08 35,72 38,57 41,64 Kereta Api 1,36 1,46 1,55 1,66 1,77 1,89 2,01 2,14 2,44 2,44 2,6 2,8 3,02 3,25 3,5 3,77 4,07 4,38 4,72 5,09 5,48 Sepeda Motor 12,86 12,76 12,74 12,83 13,05 13,39 13,86 14,48 15,27 16,12 16,45 16,78 17,1 17,43 17,76 18,08 18,4 18,72 19,05 19,37 19,69 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 MTOE
  10. 10 Smart Transportation System is Needed 10 Program Highlights (Presidential Decree 22/2017 on National Energy Master Plan) • Establish industry of electrical and hybrid transportation mode • Reaching 2200 units of vehicle in 2025 for electrical/hybrid vehicle and 2.1 Million units for two- wheel vehicle • Increasing electric public mass transportation • Regulate incentive fiscal policy for production of electric vehicle in accordance to the law • Establish the system and charging station by 1000 units in 2025 for electric vehicles AVOID Reducing the need for travel (Trip Demand Management) SHIFT Shifting the Pattern of Private Vehicle to Public Transportation IMPROVE Increasing the Energy Efficiency and Carbon Expenditure Reduction • Transit Oriented Development (TOD)/ mixed use development • Integrate transport and spatial planning, including through the development of urban mobility plan • Urban mass public transportation • Non-motorized vehicles • Electric Vehicle • Intelligent Trans portation Syste ms (ITS) Sustainable Mobility Strategy (Avoid-Shift-Improve) Sustainable Mobility Strategy promotes the use of electric vehicle to reduce GHG emission
  11. 11 11 Urban Mass Public Transport System Development Strategy Building metropolitan urban transportation management institutions to ensure the integration of: • Urban mobility policy • Management and operation of public transport Developing a funding scheme for mass public transportation development • Ensuring the role of the local government as the person responsible for financing the development and operation of public transportation • Optimizing participation/investment of Business Entities • Regulate the portion of Central Government support in financing public transport development Institutional Funding C Planning Master Plan RMP - Focus on increasing traffic flow and capacity, not yet taking into account increasing people's access to socio- economic activities ➢Focus on fulfilling sustainable accessibility, as measured by an increase in the number of people who can access activities such as schools, hospitals and workplaces due to the construction of an infrastructure - Administrative area based ➢Based on urban functional areas (metropolitan statistical area approach) - Focus on infrastructure development planning ➢Integrated infrastructure and spatial planning plans (for example: integration of public transport development and TOD/mixed use areas) Current Conventional Master Plan vs RMP The Urban Mobility Plan (RMP) shifted the planning approach from the master plan (based on administrative areas, focused on increasing traffic flow/capacity) to a mobility plan (based on urban functional areas and focused on the accessibility of activity centers in a sustainable manner)
  12. 12 Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) ITS integrates a combination of sub-systems or modules each with separate objectives into one overall system to achieve the specified sustainability, efficiency and safety targets. A designated transport network does not have to be limited to road or even surface-based networks, it can include a combination of non- motorized transport, road-based transport, rail, sea travel and air travel. INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM DEFINITION A system that applies information and communication technology electronically through computer software and hardware in the field of road transportation. 1 Integrate traffic elements such as roads, vehicles, and people/drivers. 2 By sharing this information, it allows the community of road users to get more information about problems and greater benefits with a smaller impact on the environment. PURPOSE OF INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS Reduce traffic density 1 Travel time 2 Increase safety 3 Reducing the number of accidents – Greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction 4 Increasing economic productivity 5 Konsep Design ITS Korea ITS INTEGRATION 2 1 Subjects ▪ Vehicle User ▪ Weak Person ▪ Bicycle User ▪ Pesetrian Modes ▪ Bus ▪ Subway ▪ Airplane ▪ Train Facilities ▪ Bus Stop ▪ Subway Station ▪ Train Station ▪ Airport ▪ Parking Place ▪ Bicycle Parking Place Reducing air pollution – Empowering consumers 6 12
  13. 13 Digital Readiness in Asia and the Pacifics Growth Pillar for Success Asia Pacific Economic Growth The future economy of Asia Pacific countries will be supported by the development of the digital economy. Challenge: Indonesia should develop a smart transportation system based on environmental sustainability Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) …The Importance of a Digital-based Economy in Asia Pacific...
  14. 14 Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) …The Benefit … 14 IINTEGRATED NETWORKS FOR CUSTOMERS ❑ Mechanisms for collecting quality data abaout the use of the network Better-quality data to drive better operations, planning and investment More active network management SMARTER TRANSPORT CHOICES ❑ Mechanisms that enable the delivery of accurate information to travellers to promote smarter transport choices SAFER SPEEDS AND SAFER VEHICLES ❑ Real-time safe speed messaging to drives and / or vehicles increasingly active vehicle safety features IMPROVED FREIGHT SUPPLY CHAIN EFFICIENCY ❑ Better and more freight network data collection and use for enchanced network management and more efficient freight movements INNOVATIVE PAYMENT, PRICEING AND COMPLIANCE APPROACHES ❑ Mechanisms that enable new payment, pricing and compliance options The Benefit 1. Energy- Efficient use of energy 2. Environment – reduce environmental impact 3. Techniques to reduce congestion 4. Cost- increase cost efficiency
  15. 15 For an Electric Vehicle movement to be successful, it should.. 15 Establish network partnerships for EV technology development and public awareness Have a commitment to energy independence (central and local government) Provide incentive policy to build capacity of local industry (based on best practice) EV manufacturing • public and private financing for vehicle and battery research demonstration and deployment (US and China) • regional tax and rent subsidies to attract manufacturing plants (US) • government fleet orders of EVs (Europe and US) EV owners • tax credits or reduced sales tax (UK, US, China, Denmark) • fee-bates (California) • preferential parking and/or traffic lanes (California) • exemption from congestion policies (China) Infrastructure deployment • subsidies and loans for charging infrastructure equipment manufacturing and installation (US) • make public/private land available for charging stations (Europe) • subsidies and loans for home-charging units for consumers (US) Development of the electric vehicle industry from upstream to downstream Diversifying electricity supply (toward renewable electricity) Electric Vehicle
  16. 16 The Purpose of Vehicle Electrification and Key Stakeholders 16 PR No 55/2019 Coordinating Ministry of Maritime and Investment Affairs Ministry of Industry Ministry of Transportation Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry of Finance Ministry of Home Affairs Ministry of Environment and Forestry Bappenas Coordinate EVregulatory agenda Roadmap of Automotive National Industry Technical regulations on EVmanufacturing and standards, domestic content levels Regulatory agenda in public transportation (BTS), and technical regulations for EVdeployment (Certificates of Conformity) Setting policies in the energysector in support of EV deployments. Key areas: charging infrastructure and electricity sales. Coordination with PLN Developing fiscal incentives that target supply (investment in EVmanufacturing) and demand creation (tax incentives for consumers) Regulations that enable local governments to enact fiscal incentives(Transfer Tax) Regulate EV waste management Planning and evaluation of EV-policies Source:WorldBank,ITDP ,ICCT ,Bappenas E-mobility Direct incentives Indirect incentives Infrastructure development Electric vehicle mandates Innovative business models
  17. 17 Public Electric Vehicle Charging Stations (SPKLU) and Public Electric Vehicle Battery Exchange Station (SPBKLU) 17 Sumatera 27 11 Jakarta 113 248 Jabar 47 28 Banten 24 29 Jateng, DIY 28 0 Jatim, Bali, Nusra 63 42 Sulawesi, Maluku, Papua 30 12 SPKLU SPBKLU Source:KESDM,2022 INDONESIA 332 369 SPKLU and SPBKLU Roadmap of Electric Vehicles and Supporting Infrastructure Electric Vehicles and Supporting Infrastructure
  18. 18 Implementation of the E-Bus Program 18 JAKARTA BALI BANDUNG • By 2022, 30 trolleybuses have been operated on 1 route and there will be an additional 3 routes • In 2025, TransJakarta will only procure electric buses • Charging strategy: overnight charging at the depot • The electric bus trial has been carried out at the Bali KSPN and will be operated in stages • In 2021, 530 EV units were recorded (3 sedans, 19 minibuses, 2 three-wheeled passenger cars, 506 motorcycles) with 1 EV Fast Charging Station and 109 Electric Charging Stations • The implementation of electric buses in 1 corridor in Bandung is currently being prepared with a buy-the- service scheme. • Preparation for a dedicated line BRT system in Metropolitan Bandung (23 km) using 357 electric buses (in preparation stage) MEDAN • Preparation of a dedicated line BRT system in Metropolitan Medan (21 km) using 440 electric buses (in preparation stage)
  19. 19 Pilot Project: BRT e-Bus Roadmap in Metropolitan Bandung and Medan 19 Plan to start with e-buses at one of four depots in each city. Technical assistance for business model development and transaction consulting embedded into the Project. Issues: expensive e-buses, depot land, limited contract duration from multi-year contracts. Source:WorldBank,ITDP ,ICCT ,Bappenas
  20. • According to UNCTAD, Indonesia is the 6th country with the highest DWT (deadweight tonnage) of ships after Singapore, China, Greece, Japan, and UK with total DWT of 29 million tons • Additioally, the average of Indonesia-flagged ships is 20- years-old, far above Singapore’s (average of 11-years-old) • Based on that, decarbonizing Indonesia shipping is crucial as it has a significant impact on global shipping. 20 INDONESIAN MARITIME CONDITIONS AND WORLD DECARBONIZATION TARGETS 20 ENDORSEMENT OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION 29% FROM BUSINESS AS USUAL YEARS 2030 ENERGY 11% (SUCH AS THROUGH INCREASING RENEWABLE ENERGY PORTION, SHIFTING, EFFICIENCY) RPJMN 2020 - 2024 DEVELOPMENT GOALS ECONOMIC GROWTH 5,7-6,0% POVERTY GINI RATIO HDI UNEMPLOYMENT 29.332 - 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 140.000 Singapore China Greece Japan United Kingdom Indonesia Denmark India South Korea Saudi Arabia USA Rusia Italy France Germany Total DWT kapal berdasarkan bendera (ribu ton) INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANIZATION (IMO) TARGETS TO REDUCING CO2 EMISSION FROM GLOBAL SHIPMENT OF 40% BY 2030 AND 70% BY 2050. 2022 2030 2050 GLOBAL SHIPPING CO2 EMISSION REDUCTION TARGET 40% 50% GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION UP TO 29% TARGET IN 2030 (PARIS AGREEMENT) 27,3%
  21. 21 National Maritime Decarbonization Strategy 21 ENERGY TRANSISITION PORT ELECTRICATION (USE OF RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY IN MAIN PORT ACTIVITIES) SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (PAY ATTENTION TO LAND USE CHANGES, MAINTAINING JUSTICE IN DEVELOPMENT FOR LOCAL COMMUNITIES) PROVISION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY (PROVIDE RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY AND SCALABLE ZERO EMISSION FUEL (SZEF) FOR BUNKERING AND PORT ACTIVITIES) GREEN PORT IMPLEMENTATION National maritime decarbonization efforts must also involve the port sector which has an important role in logistics and shipping activities. This effort can be achieved through several strategies as described STRATEGY TO IMPLEMENT GREEN PORT Energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy with national cruises to achieve environmentally friendly cruises. The energy transition can be carried out in stages from the use of biofuels to the use of hydrogen and ammonia without CO2 emissions