Presentation by Claire Fyson, Team Leader Mitigation Pathway Analysis, Climate Action Tracker

1. Tracking national climate action
Claire Fyson, Climate Analytics
OECD Workshop on metrics for climate
transition and net-zero GHGs in finance
22.02.23

2. Our mission
We deliver cutting-edge
science, analysis and support
to accelerate climate action to
limit warming below 1.5°C.
Our work empowers
countries, communities and
peoples on the frontlines of
the climate crisis.

3. Rating national climate action
What can we rate?
• What have they done so far?
• Are their 2030 and long-term targets sufficient
to limit warming to 1.5°C?
• Are policies sufficient to meet these targets?
Are they sufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C?
How do we assess consistency with the Paris Agreement?
• What would be a fair contribution by each nation?
• What would be cost effective for each nation, from a global perspective?

4. Climate Action Tracker ratings
Modelled domestic pathways
• Global least-cost pathways downscaled
to national level using GDP and
population
• Give an indication of what is needed for
a country to be on track for a
decarbonised economy…
• …but do not show who should pay and
how much for mitigation
• Have higher absolute emissions than fair
share for many developed countries
Fair share
• Based on principles of historic
responsibility, capability, need, and
equality
• Derived from peer-reviewed literature
and CAT’s own calculations
• Indicates a countries’ fair share
contribution to reducing emissions
• For developed countries, the fair share
may be met by a combination of
domestic emissions reductions and
providing support to others
Two reference frameworks

5. Example: Germany rating
Source: Climate Action Tracker 2023

6. Longer term: net zero targets
Source: Climate Action Tracker 2021

7. Longer term: net zero targets
Source: Climate Action Tracker 2023
**Credibility concern**

8. 1.5°C National Pathway Explorer
• Provides 1.5°C emissions and
energy consumption trajectories
for 60+ countries.
• Includes what needs to happen in
the power, transport, buildings,
industry and land-use sectors.
• Analysis is based on modelled
1.5°C scenarios assessed by the
IPCC, downscaled from regional
to national level.

9. 1.5°C National Pathway Explorer
Viet Nam’s total GHG emissions (excluding land-use)
Power sector decarbonisation

10. Sector benchmarks for enhanced
tracking
Global and national
benchmarks for several
sectors – more coming
this year!
Source: Climate Action Tracker 2020

11. www.climateanalytics.org
contact@climateanalytics.org
claire.fyson@climateanalytics.org

12. From global to national pathways
Model region “Northern Africa”
Country-level results
e.g. Morocco and Egypt
Downscaling
process
Global models assessed
by the IPCC Special
Report on 1.5°C and other
lines of evidence
Pathways are filtered to
meet sustainability
criteria defined by the
IPCC SR1.5
From regional to national
Global cost-effective
pathways: what is
technically and
economic feasible for
the country

13. Domestic emissions in context of equity
https://climateactiontracker.org/methodology/cat-rating-methodology/

14. Overview of CAT Country ratings