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Tracking national climate action
Claire Fyson, Climate Analytics
OECD Workshop on metrics for climate
transition and net-zero GHGs in finance
22.02.23
Our mission
We deliver cutting-edge
science, analysis and support
to accelerate climate action to
limit warming below 1.5°C.
Our work empowers
countries, communities and
peoples on the frontlines of
the climate crisis.
Rating national climate action
What can we rate?
• What have they done so far?
• Are their 2030 and long-term targets sufficient
to limit warming to 1.5°C?
• Are policies sufficient to meet these targets?
Are they sufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C?
How do we assess consistency with the Paris Agreement?
• What would be a fair contribution by each nation?
• What would be cost effective for each nation, from a global perspective?
Climate Action Tracker ratings
Modelled domestic pathways
• Global least-cost pathways downscaled
to national level using GDP and
population
• Give an indication of what is needed for
a country to be on track for a
decarbonised economy…
• …but do not show who should pay and
how much for mitigation
• Have higher absolute emissions than fair
share for many developed countries
Fair share
• Based on principles of historic
responsibility, capability, need, and
equality
• Derived from peer-reviewed literature
and CAT’s own calculations
• Indicates a countries’ fair share
contribution to reducing emissions
• For developed countries, the fair share
may be met by a combination of
domestic emissions reductions and
providing support to others
Two reference frameworks
Example: Germany rating
Source: Climate Action Tracker 2023
Longer term: net zero targets
Source: Climate Action Tracker 2021
Longer term: net zero targets
Source: Climate Action Tracker 2023
**Credibility concern**
1.5°C National Pathway Explorer
• Provides 1.5°C emissions and
energy consumption trajectories
for 60+ countries.
• Includes what needs to happen in
the power, transport, buildings,
industry and land-use sectors.
• Analysis is based on modelled
1.5°C scenarios assessed by the
IPCC, downscaled from regional
to national level.
1.5°C National Pathway Explorer
Viet Nam’s total GHG emissions (excluding land-use)
Power sector decarbonisation
Sector benchmarks for enhanced
tracking
Global and national
benchmarks for several
sectors – more coming
this year!
Source: Climate Action Tracker 2020
www.climateanalytics.org
contact@climateanalytics.org
claire.fyson@climateanalytics.org
From global to national pathways
Model region “Northern Africa”
Country-level results
e.g. Morocco and Egypt
Downscaling
process
Global models assessed
by the IPCC Special
Report on 1.5°C and other
lines of evidence
Pathways are filtered to
meet sustainability
criteria defined by the
IPCC SR1.5
From regional to national
Global cost-effective
pathways: what is
technically and
economic feasible for
the country
Domestic emissions in context of equity
https://climateactiontracker.org/methodology/cat-rating-methodology/
Overview of CAT Country ratings

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Workshop on Metrics for Climate Transition - PPT Claire Fyson

  • 1. Tracking national climate action Claire Fyson, Climate Analytics OECD Workshop on metrics for climate transition and net-zero GHGs in finance 22.02.23
  • 2. Our mission We deliver cutting-edge science, analysis and support to accelerate climate action to limit warming below 1.5°C. Our work empowers countries, communities and peoples on the frontlines of the climate crisis.
  • 3. Rating national climate action What can we rate? • What have they done so far? • Are their 2030 and long-term targets sufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C? • Are policies sufficient to meet these targets? Are they sufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C? How do we assess consistency with the Paris Agreement? • What would be a fair contribution by each nation? • What would be cost effective for each nation, from a global perspective?
  • 4. Climate Action Tracker ratings Modelled domestic pathways • Global least-cost pathways downscaled to national level using GDP and population • Give an indication of what is needed for a country to be on track for a decarbonised economy… • …but do not show who should pay and how much for mitigation • Have higher absolute emissions than fair share for many developed countries Fair share • Based on principles of historic responsibility, capability, need, and equality • Derived from peer-reviewed literature and CAT’s own calculations • Indicates a countries’ fair share contribution to reducing emissions • For developed countries, the fair share may be met by a combination of domestic emissions reductions and providing support to others Two reference frameworks
  • 5. Example: Germany rating Source: Climate Action Tracker 2023
  • 6. Longer term: net zero targets Source: Climate Action Tracker 2021
  • 7. Longer term: net zero targets Source: Climate Action Tracker 2023 **Credibility concern**
  • 8. 1.5°C National Pathway Explorer • Provides 1.5°C emissions and energy consumption trajectories for 60+ countries. • Includes what needs to happen in the power, transport, buildings, industry and land-use sectors. • Analysis is based on modelled 1.5°C scenarios assessed by the IPCC, downscaled from regional to national level.
  • 9. 1.5°C National Pathway Explorer Viet Nam’s total GHG emissions (excluding land-use) Power sector decarbonisation
  • 10. Sector benchmarks for enhanced tracking Global and national benchmarks for several sectors – more coming this year! Source: Climate Action Tracker 2020
  • 12. From global to national pathways Model region “Northern Africa” Country-level results e.g. Morocco and Egypt Downscaling process Global models assessed by the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C and other lines of evidence Pathways are filtered to meet sustainability criteria defined by the IPCC SR1.5 From regional to national Global cost-effective pathways: what is technically and economic feasible for the country
  • 13. Domestic emissions in context of equity https://climateactiontracker.org/methodology/cat-rating-methodology/
  • 14. Overview of CAT Country ratings