My master’s thesis drafts the futures of Finnish trade magazines with Delphi, scenarios and business model innovation. Feel free to download the thesis here: http://bit.ly/trademag

1. AFTER ONE HUNDRED YEARS OF SOLITUDE: Challenging the Status Quo of the Finnish Trade Magazine Industry by Applying Foresight to Business Models A Master’s Thesis presentation Johannes Koponen2.3.2011 johannes.koponen@gmail.com

2. AGENDA

3. Goal and research problem Business Models: a theoretical approach Trade Magazine Business Models Scenario Out of the Frying Pan Empirical research process Scenario Together We Can Scenario Rip ’em Apart Conclusions

4. GOAL

5. Foresight about futures strategic business landscape In fast-moving environments companies need mission, vision and strategy to keep the focus However, vision – where we are going – is not enough. Companies also need insight about where everyone else is going Everyone else meaning not only competitors but also all stakeholders that have a say in shaping the future

6. RESEARCH PROBLEM How different media business environment futures are related to the Finnish trade magazine business model?

7. BUSINESS MODEL

8. Reveals the value creation and delivery logic of a specific company Is built from choices and the consequences of these choices, linked by a hypothesis It is useful if consequences form self-reinforcing loops Sterman 2000, Picard 1989, Doyle 2002, Casadesus-MasanelljaRicart 2007; 2009; 2010 and Teece 2010; Giesecke et al. 2010; Fetscherin & Knolmayer 2004; Aaltonen 2010; Itami and Nishino 2009; Wirtz et al. 2010; McGrath 2010) Loops typically have certain amount of intrinsic delay Business models are highly contextual, and at the same time different business models might fit to a same situation Business models are representations that are constructed in a representation of an environment (current or future)

9. TRADE MAGAZINE BUSINESS

10. 1) Dual market model According to sources (esim. Sterman 2000, Picard 1989, Doyle 2002, Casadesus-MasanelljaRicart 2007; 2009; 2010 and Teece 2010) 2) Economies of scale and scope Trade magazine business model: Seven self-reinforcing loops that create the growth and diminishing of trade media business And taking into account the nature of the reference organization 3) Media company dominates in the value network

11. 1) Dual markets

12. 2) Economies of scale and scope

13. 3) Market powers

14. STRATEGIC LANDSCAPE

16. "What does he say?” he asked. “He’s very sad,” Ursula answered, “because he thinks that you’re going to die.” “Tell him,” the colonel said, smiling, “that a person doesn’t die when he should but when he can." — Gabriel Garcia Marquez (One Hundred Years of Solitude)

17. RESEARCH PROCESS

18. Topics to Delphi panel from an earlier media scenario research (Giesecke et al. 2010) Delphi: 8 person iterative expert interview with two argument rounds Current trade magazine business model from literature and with discussions Based on Delphi opinions, futuribles were constructed (argument-based single events in the future) The functionality of the current business model was analyzed in each scenario environment Three scenarios were constructed using the Field Anomaly Relaxation analysis Intrinsic coherence of the futuribles were analyzed with Field Anomaly Relaxation analysis In addition, novel business opportunities were analyzed in each scenario

19. SCENARIO:1) OUT OF THE FRYING PAN

20. Delphi panel was worried about the advertisement revenues Another fear was that media companies lose the direct customer relationship What happens if both threats are realized?

22. New business opportunity from lack of trust within the media field:

23. SCENARIO:2) TOGETHER WE CAN

24. Socialization of media was a very important topic in Delphi interviews Can inter-expert communities create enough value to themselves? Communities challenge the power within the established media

26. There are lucrative business opportunities in facilitated communities

27. SCENARIO:3) RIP ’EM APART

28. Digital content is easily tailored. How could a media company compete against easily deliverable and completely personated media service? Tailoring challenges the economies of scale

30. It is possible to change the business system so that it supports hyperlocalized content production

31. SCENARIO CONCLUSIONS

33. Fascinated by the discovery, Aureliano, read aloud without skipping the chanted encyclicals that Melquiades himself had made Arcadio listen to and that were in reality the prediction of his execution - - - — Gabriel Garcia Marquez (One Hundred Years of Solitude)

34. REMEMBER FROM THIS PRESENTATION

35. There are at least three grave threats to trade magazine business models New business opportunities do not seem lucrative in the beginning (when environment changes, the self-reinforcing loops turn to vicious circles) (but it is easier to try and fail now than have a must succeed situation later) There are many business opportunities in professional-specified media markets Using futures studies methodologies in business model assertion and innovation is useful (most of them are found from the outside of the current business field) (This research used Delphi and scenarios)

36. Images with Creative Commons licence: Darkness Falls on Gastown By ecstaticist Shell by The Wandering Angel Milan Train Station at Midnight By Stuck in Customs Train Station By nolifebeforecoffee Wallancarra By Garry - www.visionandimagination.com Lost in Structuration (VII) : Ultra Design Solitude By Gilderic Lost In Structuration (X) : Oblique Chaos by Gilderic Lost In Structuration (XIX) : Leaving or Staying by Gilderic Lost In Structuration (i) : by Gilderic Train : by ELIOTH When it all blows over By davebluedevil Feel free to ask questions or give feedback johannes.koponen@gmail.com