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Eric Bradlow: 10 Paradoxes of Social Media
1. The Paradoxes of Interactive Media Social Media Social Commerce Professor Eric T. Bradlow Co-Director Wharton Interactive Media Initiative The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania OfficeArrow, LLC. 2009. www.whartoninteractive.com
15. Social Commerce Takeaway 1: It is the golden age of data, but we knew 40 years ago exactly how to optimally allocate resources across media channels to maximize ad revenue.
17. The rise of data mining… …but data will never trump simple theory In genetics, for instance, it's becoming clear that knowing the entire genome of an organism will still not tell you all of the creature's physical traits… Knowing someone's future health, let alone personality or intelligence, based on a genetic readout may be impossible -- in a fundamental, inherent sense, not because we're stupid but because it is too complex.
18. The rise of data mining… …but data will never trump simple theory We put forth a model that incorporates the basic concepts of new product diffusion, using a mixture of two distributions: one representing the behavior of innovators (i.e., those who place advance orders) and one representing the behavior of followers (i.e., those who wait for the mass market to emerge).
19. Social Commerce Takeaway 2: Simple models of behavior outperform complex models out-of-sample over and over again.
20. Customer engagement… “Engaging your website visitors – not just informing them – is the next critical metric marketers must measure.” “Marketing’s New Key Metric: Engagement” Brian Haven, Forrester, August 2007
26. Social Commerce Takeaway 3: Be careful the metrics which you optimize against. There is no single metric. There is no single metric that is correct all of the time.
27. 1 to 1 marketing is the future of B2B and B2C Markets B2B and B2C markets today provide the promise of unlimited targetability Wired (2009)
28. but customers are too “antsy” (unpredictable) for it to succeed Many companies have lost fortunes by building large data warehouses that have never materialized into profits. Forrester (2009)
29. Social Commerce Takeaway 4: Money is made by grouping similar customers based on behavior as scale is obtained.
31. Ethnic/gender/lifestyle marketing… DVD purchasing by country of origin Non-Hispanic Hispanic Mean Total Spent ($) Source: comScore panel data -- households with 1+ DVD purchase in 2006
33. Ethnic/gender/lifestyle marketing… …the cross-group differences are often “mean”ingless DVD purchasing by country of origin Non-Hispanic Hispanic Total Spent ($)
34. Social Commerce Takeaway 5: No one is at the mean, all the action is in the variability of the group. Don’t chase (mean)ingless differences.
37. Viral Marketing… So how are sales? They started out strong, when Aqua Hoops appeared on the "most recent" page in iTunes, and when the game got some buzz from iPhone blogs and G4TV, a cable network for tech/gamer-types... That day, Mablekos sold 350 copies of Aqua Hoops -- $245 net revenue after Apple's 30% cut. If he could do that for a year, he'd take home $89,000. But after hitting no. 91 on Apple's "top paid apps" board, Aqua Hoops is down to a more modest sales rate: about 60 sales a day, or $42 daily net revenue -- $15,000 a year. All told, he's made about $1,400 so far. "Can't quit job at pizza place yet," Mablekos joked...
42. Social Commerce Takeaway 7: Mass Marketing is far from dead and is equally effective as ever, it is just really hard to do with all the different media channels that are available today.
44. The Long Tail… …it’s all in the head Don’t radically alter blockbuster resource allocation or product portfolio management strategies. A few winners will still go a long way – probably even further than before.
45. … hits are in highest demand just as they are in the retail market. This isn’t the first time the Long Tail theory has been called into question… a report found that music provider Mblox also followed a “head-heavy” pattern...
46. Social Commerce Takeaway 8: More media channels are not cannibalizing, heavy users use each channel heavily (ESPN principles). Invest in heavy users!
47. Ad creation is a delicate art form… “Advertising is the greatest art form of the twentieth century.” Marshall McLuhan (patron saint of Wired)
48. Ad creation is a delicate art form… …but statistical science is a good place to start
49. Ad creation is a delicate art form… …but statistical science is a good place to start
53. Content is king… …but distribution is the ace By pulling out of the deal with YouTube, Warner loses access to the Web’s No. 1 video site, which topped 100 million visitors in October. The site has increasingly become one of the Internet’s favorite ad-supported jukeboxes. Of the top 10 YouTube channels, 7 are music related. Warner Bros. Records is the 11th largest channel. If we can’t reach acceptable business terms, we must part ways with successful partners,” Google said…
54. Social Commerce Takeaway 10: Putting content in front of the right consumers and many consumers is key!
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56. The rise of data mining…data will never replace theory
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