Keynote address at the 23 June 207

1. INCLUSIVE SUSTAINABILITY AND
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
GOALS (SDGS): IS AFRICA REALLY
DIFFERENT?
Olanrewaju Olaniyan and Olawale E. Olayide
Centre for Sustainable Development
University of Ibadan, Nigeria
www.cesdev.ui.edu.ng
Keynote Address at the 23rd ISDRS Conference
Bogota, Colombia, 16 June 2017

2. African Union Agenda 2063:
A shared Strategic Framework for Equitable Growth and
Sustainable Development
• What is Agenda 2063?
• Strategic framework for the socio-economic
transformation of the continent over the next 50 years.
• Builds on, and seeks to accelerate the implementation
of past and existing continental initiatives for growth and
sustainable development.
• Adopted in 2015 (comprising 7 aspirations and 8
priority areas)
• Takes stock of Africa’s performance over the last 50
years and draw lessons for the next 50 years.

3. Seven Aspirations
1. A prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and
sustainable development
2. An integrated continent, politically united and based on
the ideals of Pan- Africanism and the vision of Africa’s
Renaissance
3. An Africa of good governance, democracy, respect for
human rights, justice and the rule of law
4. A peaceful and secure Africa
5. An Africa with a strong cultural identity, common heritage,
shared values and ethics
6. An Africa where whose development is people-driven,
relying on the potential of African people, especially its
women and youth, and caring for children
7. Africa as a strong, united and influential global player and
partner

4. Agenda 2063
• Inclusiveness:
• Economic, Social, environmental, culturally etc.
• ASPIRATION 1: A prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and
sustainable development
• nature captures the essence of what Africa believes is needed to
ensure it is not left behind or forgotten.
• It is a prolific signal of Africa’s understanding of its seriousness to
develop and grow the continent.
• sync on the pivotal role of the environment: For instance, goal
seven of Aspiration one is focused on Environmentally Sustainable
and Climate Resilient Economies and Communities, reinforcing
several of the SDGs.
• Sustainability…
• E.g. The united voices paint a picture of what we desire for
ourselves, for future generations and the continent.

5. Structure of Agenda 2063

7. Common African Position on SDGs
• A lot of synergy exists between Agenda 2063 and the SDGs
• SDGs benefited from the Common African Position on the
post-2015 Development Agenda is the embodiment of that
unity.
• The Position recognizes rising trends such as population
growth and the youth bulge, urbanization, climate change and
inequalities.
• Equally important is the recognition of the demographic
dividend as a key element in the people-centred framework of
the Common African Position on the Post 2015 Development
Agenda.
• It reiterates the importance of prioritizing structural
transformation for inclusive and people-centred development
in Africa.

8. Agenda 2063 and the SDGs Compared
• Convergence
• on social development (people), inclusive economic development
(prosperity), on peaceful and inclusive societies and responsive
institutions (peace), and on a number of environmental sustainability
issues (planet).
• Divergence: Included in SDG but are not, or are only
marginally covered by Agenda 2063
• inequality within and between countries, and issues related to the
sustainable management of terrestrial ecosystems, forests,
desertification, land degradation and biodiversity. Sustainable
consumption and production is also not part of the continental
agenda.
• Divergence: Included in Agenda 2063 but are not, or
are only marginally covered by SDG
• the AU’s pan-African drive, African cultural identity, common
heritage, values and ethics; the African Renaissance; and the strong
focus on the security agenda, including the common defense,
foreign and security policy for the continent.

9. Agenda 2063 and the SDGs
• African Agenda 2063 and the global 2030 Agenda for
Sustainable Development offer a unique opportunity for
Africa to achieve inclusive, transformative and sustainable
development, aspirations that are urgent in order to put
the continent on a sustainable development path.

10. Agenda 2063 and the SDGs
• In achieving the two broad goals, Africa Union Assembly
Decision (Assembly/AU/Dec.601 (XXVI) of January 2016
devotes the theme of the year 2017 to “Harnessing the
Demographic Dividend through investments in Youth”
• “demographic dividend lens offers a strategic basis for focusing
and prioritizing investments in people in general and the youth
in particular, in order to achieve sustainable development,
inclusive economic growth, and to build "an integrated,
prosperous and peaceful Africa, which is driven by its own
citizens and representing a dynamic force in the international
arena” (African Union, 2016)

11. Africa’s population and her sustainability
• Africa is the second most populated continent with 1.2 billion in
2015
• Population projected to grow rapidly, reaching 1.7 billion in
2030 and more than double by 2050, to 2.5 billion in 2050 and
3 billion in 2063.
• It’s share of the global population will increase from 16 per cent
in 2015 to more than 29 per cent in 2063.
• More remarkable is the fact that about 46 per cent of the 1.3
billion increase in Africa’s labor force over the period 2015-
2063 will be young people aged 15-34, averaging 12.1 million a
year.
• This resulted in the inclusion of the demographic dividend in
the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This was one
of the key contributions of Africa to the 2030 Agenda.

12. Is African population sustainable?
• Africa has the highest rate of population growth among
major areas, growing at a pace of 2.55 per cent annually
in 2010-2015
• During 2015-2050, half of the world’s population growth is
expected to be concentrated in nine countries: India,
Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo,
Ethiopia, United Republic of Tanzania, United States of
America, Indonesia and Uganda, listed according to the
size of their contribution to the total growth

13. Driver of the Population…
• Fertility rates, the main driver of population growth, vary
around the world
• Africa has the highest fertility rate across the world
• Providing young generations with health care, education,
and employment opportunities, including in the poorest
countries and groups, is a pivotal focus of the 2030
Sustainable Development Agenda.
• All major areas of the world, except for Africa, will have
nearly a quarter or more of their populations aged 60 or
over by 2050.

14. Total Fertility Rate for Selected African Countries, 1950 -
2010
14
Tunisia, 2.05
South Africa, 2.55
Cape Verde, 2.60
Côte d'Ivoire, 4.89
Gambia, 5.79
Ghana, 4.22
Liberia, 5.23
Niger, 7.58
Nigeria, 6.01
0
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
1950-1955
1955-1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2010

15. There is potential for a demographic
dividend
• Africa’s population is young and growing rapidly
• Africa has what is soon-to-be the world’s largest
workforce, has an opportunity to transform into a global
economic powerhouse.
• This entails a sharp increase in the youth population – by
2050, Africa will be home to 38 of the 40 youngest
countries in the world, with median populations under 25
years of age (United Nations Population Division, 2015).
• As a result, the labour market will grow with an estimated
12 million new people joining the labour force each year
(Pitamber and Foko, 2017).

16. Percentage of population by age groups by
Regions, 2015
16
19
23
24
26
41
11
14
15
16
17
19
49
47
45
48
46
34
24
21
16
12
11
5
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Europe
North America
Oceania
Asia
Latin America & the Caribbean
Africa
0-14 15-24 25-59 60+

17. Population andAfrica’s Sustainability in the Future:
Global trends in working age population: 1950-2100
17
Source: IMF

18. Africa Rising? Is it sustainable? How and
Why?
• Economic Sustainability
• Economic growth
• Poverty levels
• Africa Rising? Is it sustainable? How and
Why?

19. Developing Countries Lead World’s Growth

20. Real GDP Growth in Africa
4.1
5.9
4.4
5.8
4
6
3.6
0.8
7.1 7.3
6.3
3.9
7.2
5.9
6.5
5.3
4.9
4.3
0.3
9.4
1.7 1.5
3.3
3
5.2
3.7 3.9
3.3
3.7
2.8
1.9
1.1
5.7
7.1 6.9 6.9
5.7
6.1
3.3
0.4
5.3 5.2
3.6
6.4
3.9 3.7 3.4
2.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Central Africa East Africa North Africa
Southern Africa West Africa Africa

21. Economic Growth: Issues & Drivers
• Two Issues concerning growth
• Is it sustainable?
• Is it inclusive?
• Drivers of Growth in Africa
• Commodity prices Dynamics and fluctuations
• The spill-over effect from the Arab Spring
• Transmission effects from the global economy
• Consumption demand boosted by population growth is
an important source of resilience
• Nature and patter of diversification of the economy

22. Economic Growth: Issues & Drivers
• Despite an economic slowdown in 2016, Africa’s
growth outlook is positive with marked resilience
mainly anchored on strong domestic demand.
• Africa’s growth is less dependent on natural resources
and is increasingly favoured by improvements in the
business environment and in macroeconomic
governance.
• Increased structural diversification has significantly
improved the continent's ability to withstand external
shocks.
• Policy certainty is important in mitigating external
imbalances, as macro fundamentals are weakening.

23. But many are excluded!
• Poverty
• Hunger
• Inequality
• Education
• Health
• Employment
• Migration
• Gender: Gender disparities in income, access to health and
educational attainment are pervasive across the continent. Women
farmers are eight times less likely to independently own their own
agricultural land. According to a survey of experts, women with
secondary education are 37% less likely to be employed in the formal,
non-agricultural sectors.

24. Inclusive sustainability
• Inclusive sustainability could be defined as the economic
growth that sustain human well-being in both social and
environmental spaces, and contributes to the promotion of
partnerships for development and equity
• Inclusiveness is a concept that encompasses equity,
equality of opportunity, and protection in market and
employment transitions (Lanchovichina et al, 2012).
• Inclusive growth is defined as output growth that is
sustained over decades, is broad-based across economic
sectors, creates productive employment opportunities for
a great majority of the country’s working age population,
and reduces poverty (Commission on Growth and
Development, 2008).

25. Inclusive Sustainability
• Exclusion and unequal access to economic and social
opportunities inhibit human rights and thwart both
improvements to livelihoods and the development of skills
that economic expansion can offer.
• Unequal access to education and barriers to the labour
market exclude young people living in rural or urban low-
income areas, women and the disabled from lucrative
jobs in productive sectors that require skilled labour.

26. Poverty…
Proportion of population living below $1.90 purchasing
power parity (PPP) per day
1.7
56.9
11.1
35.4
60.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
North Africa
Africa excluding North Africa
Latin America & the Caribbean
Asia
Landlocked Developing countries
There are 31 Landlocked Developing Countries. 15 are in Africa, 10 in Asia, 4
in Europe and 2 in Latin AmericaSource: UNSD, 2016,

27. Global Hunger Index, 2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
North Africa Africa
excluding North
Africa
Latin America
& the
Caribbean
South Asia East and South
Asia
Source: WDI, 2015

28. Inequality is a major challenge
• High inequality undermined the efficacy of growth in reducing poverty
• Africa has one of the highest levels of income inequality in the world.
Only Latin America exhibits greater inequality.
• Six of the world’s ten fastest growing economies were in Africa. Yet in
2011, six of the ten most unequal countries were also in Africa (AfDB,
2013a).
• Inequality related to geographic location, gender, human capabilities
and economic opportunities is slowing down progress on human
development across Africa.
• Africa has the largest differences inequality within countries driven
substantially by spatial (geographic) factors, which make up close to
40% of the total variation.
• The overall loss in human development from inequality in Africa is
32%, compared to a global average of 22%.
• High levels of both tertiary education and remittances appear to have
inequality-reducing effects between countries in distribution of
benefits of human progress across the world.

29. Gender Inequality
• Gender inequality limits Africa’s progress in
tackling poverty in two ways.
1. The continent forfeits potential growth that
could have come from women who are
excluded from the growth process.
2. Restricting women’s access to human
capital enhancing services, such as
education and healthcare, limits the extent to
which growth can impact on their poverty
status.

30. Inequality in Economic Opportunities: School
Enrolment
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
East Asia & Pacific South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa United States China
Sch.Enrol. Pri.
Sch. Enrol, Sec.
Sch. Enrol, Tert.

32. Literacy Rates in Selected African Countries
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
Literacy rate

33. Health Expenditure Per Capita in Selected
African Countries
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1000.00
Health Exp. PC

34. Unemployment as issue of sustainability
13.7 13.0
33.4 31.6
13.7
65.0
75.8
33.4
13.5
79.6
CENTRAL AFRICA EAST AFRICA NORTH AFRICA SOUTHERN AFRICA WEST AFRICA
Unemployment and Vulnerable employment in
Africa
Youth Unemployment Vulnerable employment

35. Can youths explain Africa’s sustainability?
• Incidentally, Current youth bulge leaves
Africa with the challenge of providing jobs
to 29 million labour market entrants every
year, which is close to 6 percent of the
current workforce.

36. How much of Africa is Included in World
economy?
• Africa’s share of global trade is declining
• Recent trends in Africa’s trade show that the share of Africa’s
exports in global merchandise exports declined from 3.3 per
cent in 2013 to 3.0 per cent in 2014.
• many African countries’ trade is heavily concentrated on natural
resource products, which account for two-thirds of the continent’s
merchandise exports (AfDB et al., 2015).
• For Africa to realize the full potential of benefiting from the current
trading system and agreements, a significant international effort to
pursue export-oriented diversification towards manufactured goods is
vital
• Intra-African trade provides opportunities to strengthen Africa’s
position
• Fast-expanding regional markets, which now account for about 16% of
total trade in Africa, provide an avenue to diversity, supplementing
more volatile trade with external partners.

37. Average annual Net Migration by Regions
0.9
1.7
0.8
1.5
1.2
1.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
-1.5 -1.3 -1.3
-0.8
-0.8 -0.4
-0.2
-0.3
-0.6
1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2015
Averageannualnetmigration(millions)
Europe North America
Oceania Asia
Latin America & the Caribbean Africa

38. Environmental Sustainability
• Africa has vast renewable resources.
• has huge solar and wind power potential, receiving, for
example, the highest amount of solar radiation of any
continent.
• has over 15,000 MW of potential geothermal energy,
hydropower that could generate a massive 1,800 Twh a
year, and “immense” prospects for bioenergy.
• Climate action is key to achieving Africa’s potential
• Nineteen nations have endorsed the Africa Clean Energy
Corridor, which could increase the development of renewable
energy projects from their present 12 per cent of the East and
Southern Africa Power Pool to at least 40 per cent by 2030

39. Environmental Sustainability
• Africa is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
The increasing frequency of environment-related natural
disasters, such as changing rainfall patterns, floods and
droughts, affect society and the economy.
• The Horn of Africa, the Sahel and Southern Africa are
particularly prone to variability in rainfall. Between October
2010 and September 2011 severe droughts in East Africa
caused 50 000 fatalities and touched 13.3 million people
(CDKN, 2012)
• Climate-related events highly impact poor and vulnerable
communities that have few coping mechanisms or alternative
livelihoods.
• Providing access to modern energy sources for domestic and
productive use remains a key development priority for Africa.
77% of the continent’s population lack access to electricity, and
80% rely on charcoal and firewood for cooking

40. Environmental Sustainability
• Whilst Africa at present contributes less than 5% of global
carbon emissions, it bears the brunt of the impact of
climate change. Africa shall address the global challenge
of climate change by prioritizing adaptation
• Africa has 60 per cent of the world's potential arable land
which could become an agricultural powerhouse, while
conserving its ecosystems, unique biodiversity, and
genetic resources
• It is host to five of the 20 global centres of plant diversity
• Dependence of primary commodities and extractive
industry? Are they inclusive? Are they sustainable?

41. Environmental Sustainability
• Over 50 per cent of African countries had by 2014
had at least 10 per cent of their territorial and
marine areas protected, compared to 33 per cent
of countries in 2000.
•
• The percentage of terrestrial and marine areas
protected in Africa excluding North Africa
increased from 7.1 per cent in 1990 to 11.1 per
cent in 2014

42. Water productivity and access to clean water
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
East Asia & Pacific South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa United States China
Water productivity,
Access to clean F T & CKG

43. Fossil fuel consumption and emissions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
East Asia & Pacific South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa United States China
Fossil fuel energy consptn
CO2 emissions from MIC

44. Achieving Inclusive Sustainable Development:
Is Africa Different?
• Yes: Has her own agenda
• The slogan is: The Africa We Want
• The plan of action aims at a continent where
Africans “will have a high standard of living and
quality of life and well-being” based on “inclusive
growth and sustainable development to enable
Africa to reclaim its natural heritage, build
prosperous societies, and reduce vulnerability to
climate change

45. Is Africa Different?
•No, Africa is mainstreaming the
2030 global agenda
• Africa’s common priorities as outlined in Agenda 2063 fed
into the development of the Agenda 2030 through the African
Common Position on SGDs.
• Given Africa’s positioning and input into the SDG process,
there is great convergence between Agenda 2063 and
Agenda 2030. Therefore, African countries are currently
domesticating both agendas into National Development
Plans.
• Both Agendas will shape the development pathway of Africa
for the foreseeable future, particularly its aspirations for
sustained and inclusive economic growth, poverty
eradication and structural transformation.

46. Africa is also committed to the SDGs
• African countries have begun the process of implementing
the two complementary agendas, demonstrating the
continent’s commitment to transforming African
economies within the framework of sustainable
development.
• By reaffirming the centrality of economic, social and
environmental sustainability, as well as gender equality to
development, the two initiatives redefine the parameters
of traditional development agendas which have typically
been weak on sustainability and structural transformation

47. Moving forward…
1. Africa must maintain a robust growth momentum. This growth, if
accompanied by appropriate redistribution, is Africa’s best lever for
poverty reduction. Growth sustainability will, in turn, depend on the
availability of capital to supplement the growing quantity and quality of
labour. The 2063 Agenda calls for self-reliance and self-determination
of the African people.
2. The continent needs to address inequality at various levels, including
income, gender and rural-urban disparities. These disparities pose a
significant challenge both to its growth prospects and the extent to
which growth translates into poverty reduction.
3. Industrialization and value addition remains a thorny issue in a
continent. It is greatly relieving to notice that SDG 9 is solely dedicated
to building “resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable
industrialization and foster innovation” (United Nations 2015: 14).

48. Moving forward…
4. Achieving inclusive growth requires addressing the demographic
challenges facing the continent. High fertility rates and rising
underemployment among youth are likely to undermine future
growth prospects, and could limit, if not reverse, the current
achievements in poverty reduction. The challenge for Africa is to
complete the transition toward low fertility levels.
5. Energy infrastructure and provision remains a perennial challenge.
Only some parts of South Africa and North Africa remain
illuminated. Going through the SDGs, it came as no surprise that
SDG 8 is dedicated to the desire to “Ensure access to affordable,
reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all” (United Nations
2015: 9). The keywords and challenges in this SDG are
‘affordable’, ‘reliable’ and ‘all’.
6. How the SDGs will be implemented. Many governments across the
world and in Africa work along the portfolio lines. Hence, with 17
SDGs it does not require rocket science to anticipate that a
mandate fight might occur.

49. Moving forward…
7. One of the challenging omissions from the SDGs is the
need to address population growth. The volume of
youths available in Africa is a ticking time bomb that
cannot be left unchecked if we wish to be sustainable
8. Finally, success will depend on the quality of national
development strategies and how they interact with
global economic conditions. Domestic politics will
inevitably play a major role.
9. Equity remains a thorn in Africa’s flesh. True
sustainable development agenda should address
matters pertaining to equity. In the past, many African
countries have not been able to negotiate as partners
due to bullying and arm twisting

50. Gracias!
Olanrewaju Olaniyan and Olawale E. Olayide
Centre for Sustainable Development
University of Ibadan, Nigeria
www.cesdev.ui.edu.ng
o.olaniyan@ui.edu.ng, oe.olayide@ui.edu.ng