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EKONOMIAZ I-2019
Unleashing firms’
growth potential
Prof. Rudy Aernoudt
Senior Economist
European commission
Unleashing firms’ growth potential
Five ingredients for
internationalization:
1.1. Respect industry: end of taboo
2.2. Investment readiness
3.3. Reshoring
4.4. Entrepreneurship-friendly policy
5.5. Financing: the scale-up gap
rudy.aernoudt@ec.europa.eu 2
Capital Needs
Time
Seed Start-up Early Growth Scale-up
High
Risk
Low
Risk
Friends,
Family &
Founders
Business
Angels
Formal
Venture
Capital
EXIT
1
0
Who fill the
‘Equity
Gaps’
Business
Angels
syndicates
Scale-
up gap
The 2 equity gaps
#Challenge 1:The first equity gap
4
#Challenge 2: Scale-up mentality
rudy.aernoudt@ec.europa.eu 5
# Challenge 3: VC- EU:
limited amount & small deals
6
129
113
13,7
8,3
9
22
20
6
10
11
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
ASIA
US
EU (excl UK)
UK
LATAM +AFR
Data 2018 – Preqin
Mean($Mio) Amount ($bn)
Facts & figures: stage of investment
In Bi-euro US EU Comments
(2019 – NVCA &
Invest-europe)
Seed stage 7,5 0,7 10 x
Early stage 32 4,9 7x
Later stage 90 2,6 34 x
Total annual VC-
investments
130 8,2 15 x
7
The scale-up gap: Unicorns leave Europe
Conclusion: the scale-up gap
• Facts & figures
- 44% of EU-financed
scale-ups left EU
- VC Later stage US
exceeds 34 times EU
- Average VC fund US:
135 M$ -EU: 65 M$
- Public co-investment
from 9 to 39% in ten
years (EU VC = public)
• Surveys
• - For 65% of scale-ups,
financing is biggest
obstacle for growth (EC- PC
on scale-up, 2016)
• - 90% of EU cies struggle
to raise financing for
growth (Roland Berger)
• - Hard to find 15 to 25 M€
• - Closing scale-up gap
would create 1 mio EU-jobs
II. The EU answer: ESCALAR
(European Scale-up Action for Risk Capital)
• Why now??
• 1.Scale-up & equity gap
• 2. Banking sector fragilized (post crisis)
• 3. Very liquid market – patient investors
looking for AAA investments (Basle III)
• 4. Pan-European FoF operational
• 5. Already very public market (40% of EU
VC is public); crowding-out danger
ESCALAR: the mechanism
VC Funds EU institutions investors
ESCALAR 1
€1 equity -> max €1 debt
ESCALAR 2
€1 equity -> max € 1 debt
ESCALAR 3
€1 equity -> max €1 debt
EIF
(due diligence)
EFSI
guarantee
EIB
Bond issuing
Risk-averting
Investor:
Pension fund 1
Risk-averting
Pension fund 2
Risk-averting investor
Insurance company
(1) Funds ask agreement for recognition (2) EIF preselects (3) Funds drawn private money (4) EFSI asks
EIB to issue a bond; after pilot phase (5) EIB collects money through risk-averting investors
(1)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(2)
12
ESCALAR
Balance sheet
Venture capital fund FUNDING
MECHANISM
Assets Liabilities
1.
INVESTEES
(scale-up
companies)
2.
EQUITY
Including
Public money
3.
Quasi-equity
(leverage on
return)
ESCALAR
(e.g. pension
funds
with EFSI gar.)
Blending of financial instruments
rudy.aernoudt@ec.europa.eu 13
30%
10%
10%
50%
ESCALAR FUND
Private
equity
NPB (eg
KfW)
EIF
Patient
guaranteed
investors
• 1st step:
• Private equity or BA:
30M€
• 2nd step:
• Fof
- EIF: 10 M€
- NPB: 10 M€
- 3rd step
- ESCALAR
- Raising 50 M € from
capital market trhough
EFSI guarantee
Two ways of implementation
MAIN FUND
Equity Quasi-equity
SIDE FUND
equity ESCALAR
rudy.aernoudt@ec.europa.eu 14
ESCALAR: IMPLEMENTION
• Pilot phase 2019
• - first projects
• - calibration
• - through call
• - closed-end call
• - 300 Million euro
• - one-legged
• Part of INVEST
EU
• - 2021 – 2027
• - open call
• - two-legged:
• VC quasi-fund
• Private funding
rudy.aernoudt@ec.europa.eu 15
InvestEU
EU financial instruments 2014-2020 2021-2027
InvestEU Fund
17
▪ Budget for InvestEU Advisory Hub, InvestEU Portal and
accompanying measures is proposed to be EUR 525 million.
▪ InvestEU is expected to mobilise more than EUR 650 billion of
additional investment across Europe
Window
Budgetary
guarantee
Mobilised investment
(estimate)
Sustainable infrastructure 11 500 185 000
Research, Innovation and
Digitisation
11 250 200 000
SMEs 11 250 215 000
Social investment and skills 4 000 50 000
TOTAL (EUR Million, in current prices) 38 000 650 000
Indicative proposed budget allocation:
Why wasn’t ESCALAR done before?
18

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Unleashing firms growth potential

  • 1. EKONOMIAZ I-2019 Unleashing firms’ growth potential Prof. Rudy Aernoudt Senior Economist European commission
  • 2. Unleashing firms’ growth potential Five ingredients for internationalization: 1.1. Respect industry: end of taboo 2.2. Investment readiness 3.3. Reshoring 4.4. Entrepreneurship-friendly policy 5.5. Financing: the scale-up gap rudy.aernoudt@ec.europa.eu 2
  • 3. Capital Needs Time Seed Start-up Early Growth Scale-up High Risk Low Risk Friends, Family & Founders Business Angels Formal Venture Capital EXIT 1 0 Who fill the ‘Equity Gaps’ Business Angels syndicates Scale- up gap The 2 equity gaps
  • 4. #Challenge 1:The first equity gap 4
  • 5. #Challenge 2: Scale-up mentality rudy.aernoudt@ec.europa.eu 5
  • 6. # Challenge 3: VC- EU: limited amount & small deals 6 129 113 13,7 8,3 9 22 20 6 10 11 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 ASIA US EU (excl UK) UK LATAM +AFR Data 2018 – Preqin Mean($Mio) Amount ($bn)
  • 7. Facts & figures: stage of investment In Bi-euro US EU Comments (2019 – NVCA & Invest-europe) Seed stage 7,5 0,7 10 x Early stage 32 4,9 7x Later stage 90 2,6 34 x Total annual VC- investments 130 8,2 15 x 7
  • 8. The scale-up gap: Unicorns leave Europe
  • 9. Conclusion: the scale-up gap • Facts & figures - 44% of EU-financed scale-ups left EU - VC Later stage US exceeds 34 times EU - Average VC fund US: 135 M$ -EU: 65 M$ - Public co-investment from 9 to 39% in ten years (EU VC = public) • Surveys • - For 65% of scale-ups, financing is biggest obstacle for growth (EC- PC on scale-up, 2016) • - 90% of EU cies struggle to raise financing for growth (Roland Berger) • - Hard to find 15 to 25 M€ • - Closing scale-up gap would create 1 mio EU-jobs
  • 10. II. The EU answer: ESCALAR (European Scale-up Action for Risk Capital) • Why now?? • 1.Scale-up & equity gap • 2. Banking sector fragilized (post crisis) • 3. Very liquid market – patient investors looking for AAA investments (Basle III) • 4. Pan-European FoF operational • 5. Already very public market (40% of EU VC is public); crowding-out danger
  • 11. ESCALAR: the mechanism VC Funds EU institutions investors ESCALAR 1 €1 equity -> max €1 debt ESCALAR 2 €1 equity -> max € 1 debt ESCALAR 3 €1 equity -> max €1 debt EIF (due diligence) EFSI guarantee EIB Bond issuing Risk-averting Investor: Pension fund 1 Risk-averting Pension fund 2 Risk-averting investor Insurance company (1) Funds ask agreement for recognition (2) EIF preselects (3) Funds drawn private money (4) EFSI asks EIB to issue a bond; after pilot phase (5) EIB collects money through risk-averting investors (1) (3) (4) (5) (2)
  • 12. 12 ESCALAR Balance sheet Venture capital fund FUNDING MECHANISM Assets Liabilities 1. INVESTEES (scale-up companies) 2. EQUITY Including Public money 3. Quasi-equity (leverage on return) ESCALAR (e.g. pension funds with EFSI gar.)
  • 13. Blending of financial instruments rudy.aernoudt@ec.europa.eu 13 30% 10% 10% 50% ESCALAR FUND Private equity NPB (eg KfW) EIF Patient guaranteed investors • 1st step: • Private equity or BA: 30M€ • 2nd step: • Fof - EIF: 10 M€ - NPB: 10 M€ - 3rd step - ESCALAR - Raising 50 M € from capital market trhough EFSI guarantee
  • 14. Two ways of implementation MAIN FUND Equity Quasi-equity SIDE FUND equity ESCALAR rudy.aernoudt@ec.europa.eu 14
  • 15. ESCALAR: IMPLEMENTION • Pilot phase 2019 • - first projects • - calibration • - through call • - closed-end call • - 300 Million euro • - one-legged • Part of INVEST EU • - 2021 – 2027 • - open call • - two-legged: • VC quasi-fund • Private funding rudy.aernoudt@ec.europa.eu 15
  • 16. InvestEU EU financial instruments 2014-2020 2021-2027
  • 17. InvestEU Fund 17 ▪ Budget for InvestEU Advisory Hub, InvestEU Portal and accompanying measures is proposed to be EUR 525 million. ▪ InvestEU is expected to mobilise more than EUR 650 billion of additional investment across Europe Window Budgetary guarantee Mobilised investment (estimate) Sustainable infrastructure 11 500 185 000 Research, Innovation and Digitisation 11 250 200 000 SMEs 11 250 215 000 Social investment and skills 4 000 50 000 TOTAL (EUR Million, in current prices) 38 000 650 000 Indicative proposed budget allocation:
  • 18. Why wasn’t ESCALAR done before? 18