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Icef miami 2014 risk reward

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Presentation from ICEF Miami 2014, Risk and Reward in International Enrollment Management

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Icef miami 2014 risk reward

  1. 1. ICEF Miami “Risk and Reward in International Student Recruitment” ©All material strictly Miami 2014 copyright Barton Carlyle 2014
  2. 2. Strategic Risk 2 Risk & Reward Strategy Recruitment
  3. 3. Strategic Risk Management 3 External Forces: Global Student Mobility Education system dynamics Economic conditions Immigration/visa regulations Student choice Technology Rankings Competition Internal Forces: Culture of organization/provider Resources Curriculum Reputation & rankings Technology Infrastructure Internationalization goals Staff capability/experience International Positioning Marketing/branding Partnerships Recruitment Plan Metrics Communications
  4. 4. Strategic Risk 4 “…every obstacle, every issue that has the potential to materially affect the achievement of our strategic objectives.” Dr.Georg Klein, Siemens AG Source: Deloitte survey (2013) “Risk is uncertainty, but we have to take risks to get to our goals, especially during changing times”. Sandra G. Carson, VP, Enterprise Risk Management and Compliance, Sysco Corporation
  5. 5. Strategic Risk Management 5 Market •Environment uncertainty Portfolio •Business Model Uncertainty Strategy •Industry uncertainty External econ, political, social and physical environment Legislation Demographics Capabilities Programs and services Organisational flexibility, technology, competitive strategy Effects of competition Customer behaviour Technological innovation (industry level)
  6. 6. Risk Management 6 Portfolio Risks Strategic Risk Programs Pricing Channels Competition Student Mobility Trends Soc-EcImpacts Strategy Delivery Market Risks Environment Can’t control: Understand and navigate through market research and market intelligence systems Business Model Can control: Portfolio of programs and services, choice of mediators Industry Can influence: Benchmarking, best practice, collaboration, professional assocs
  7. 7. 7 What’s your profile? Risk Management: Risk profile
  8. 8. Mission and Vision, Growth targets, portfolio balance, Offshoring interest, senior management capacity Strategic Plan Relevance to global issues, learning and career outcomes, range of curricular methodologies Programs Govtpartnerships, agent networks, sponsor links, research collaborations (Univs), institutional collaboration, offshore offices Partnerships Patterns of communications, digital and social media capabilities, alumni networks, staff networks, study abroad Reach Market intelligence and market research investments, patterns of competition Market understanding Trends, Market dependencies, market development capabilities Enrollment patterns 8 Risk Management: Risk profile
  9. 9. Strategic Market Structural Reputation Program Management Financial TYPES OF RISK 9 Risk Management: Risk profile
  10. 10. Managing Risk Put together a risk register: Simple spreadsheet Describe the issue Describe the potential impact of the risk What will warn you that this risk is out there? Quantifythe impact Quantifythe probability/likelihood Assign a value (product of impact x likelihood values) How often will you monitor? What actions will you take to mitigate the risk? Who owns it?
  11. 11. Risk Management: Risk Register What type of risk? Risk/Issue? Potential impacts? Triggers/warnings? Impact VH/H/M/L (# or %) Probability VH/H/M/L (# or %) Risk Value MonitoringActions Mitigating Actions Impact x probability = risk value
  12. 12. VH/L VH/M VH/H VH/VH H/L H/M H/H H/VH M/L M/M M/H M/VH L/L L/M L/H L/VH Impact Probability/Likelihood Risk Management: Risk Mapping Key # % VH Very High 5 100 H High 480 M Medium 3 60 L Low 2 40 VL Very Low 120 Adapted from KPMG sources © Barton Carlyle 2014
  13. 13. Managing Risk: Risk Mapping Sovereign market risk Example: Government of China decides to cap numbers of students studying internationally to give preference to the development of domestic provision Challenges – How exposed are we to the China market (how reliant on Chinese students)? How much advance warning? Will there be a list of approved programs? Are we well placed (reputation and presence) to be on it? Can we predict scale of income loss? How do we go about mitigating this risk? Examples of Risk approach 13
  14. 14. Managing Risk: Market Research 14 Evidence for your strategy Global trends Competition Market potential Calculating market share Supporting segmentation decisions Choosing communication paths Reputation/branding perceptions Costs of recruitment Understanding student choice Mapping retention Monitoring impact
  15. 15. Managing Risk: Market Research 15 S Strengths W Weaknesses O Opportunities T Threats Role of Market Intelligence
  16. 16. 16 ICEF/i-graduate Annual Agent Barometer i-graduate Annual ISB (International Student Barometer) Managing Risk: Market Research
  17. 17. MARKET SCANNING
  18. 18. 18 Scenario Planning “Scenario planning is not so much actively predicting the future as it is about understanding the…environment and the nature of the risks that environment can give rise to. Insights gained from scenario planning should equip organisations to recognize and respond to significant emerging threats and opportunities, and in the process building enhanced…competitiveness, resilience and agility” KPMG Australia 2011 https://www.kpmg.com/AU/en/IssuesAndInsights/ArticlesPublications/Documents/Manage- the-future-through-scenario-planning-v3.pdf
  19. 19. Managing Risk: Scenario Planning 19 Risk Strategy Risk profile Future proofing Risk reporting Risk Mitigation Strategy delineates risk appetite Positioning research and risk mapping generate risk profile Scenario planning supports future orientation Reporting supports active risk management Mitigation actions diminish or eliminate possible impact of risks Mitigation actions adjust strategy and support realignment of risk profile
  20. 20. Scenarios: What if? 20 Sorting out market exit
  21. 21. Scenarios: What if? 21 Fraud and security issues
  22. 22. Scenarios: What if? 22 Reputational issues
  23. 23. 23 Scenario Planning 1.Map basic trends and driving forces 2.Find key uncertainties 3.Describe critical and unpredictable driving forces 4.Distill to two forces/factors 5.Identify factor extremes and check for plausibility 6.Map these onto an x/y axis 7.Define scenarios Be careful about how you develop scenarios: http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/the_use_and_abuse_of_scenarios http://monitor.icef.com/2014/02/beyond- forecasting-how-to-use-scenario-planning-to-map- the-future/
  24. 24. 24 Scenario Planning Possible Topics Disruption to potential student flows Impacts of technology Rise of market entrants and/or competitor disruption Pathway provision impacts on ESL market?
  25. 25. Summary: Managing Risk Develop a risk management strategy: Understand your institution’s risk appetite Map your risk profile Develop your risk register Incorporate risk management in your international strategy Mitigate risk –using market research to understand change drivers There are opportunity risks –estimate the risk of doing nothing as much as you manage the risk of doing something! www.bartoncarlyle.com
  26. 26. Pamela Barrett, Director Barton Carlyle E: pamela@bartoncarlyle.com T: (44) 7788 600 388 www.bartoncarlyle.com THANKSFor your participation!

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