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Strategic Risk Management 3
Global Student Mobility
Education system dynamics
Culture of organization/provider
Reputation & rankings
Strategic Risk 4
“…every obstacle, every issue that has the potential to materially affect the achievement of our strategic objectives.”
Dr.Georg Klein, Siemens AG
Source: Deloitte survey (2013)
“Risk is uncertainty, but we have to take risks to get to our goals, especially during changing times”.
Sandra G. Carson, VP, Enterprise Risk Management and Compliance, Sysco Corporation
Strategic Risk Management 5
•Business Model Uncertainty
External econ, political, social and physical environment
Programs and services
Organisational flexibility, technology, competitive strategy
Effects of competition
Technological innovation (industry level)
Risk Management 6
Student Mobility Trends
Understand and navigate through market research and market intelligence systems
Portfolio of programs and services, choice of mediators
Benchmarking, best practice, collaboration, professional assocs
What’s your profile?
Risk Management: Risk profile
Mission and Vision, Growth targets, portfolio balance, Offshoring interest, senior management capacity
Relevance to global issues, learning and career outcomes, range of curricular methodologies
Govtpartnerships, agent networks, sponsor links, research collaborations (Univs), institutional collaboration, offshore offices
Patterns of communications, digital and social media capabilities, alumni networks, staff networks, study abroad
Market intelligence and market research investments, patterns of competition
Trends, Market dependencies, market development capabilities
Risk Management: Risk profile
Put together a risk register:
Describe the issue
Describe the potential impact of the risk
What will warn you that this risk is out there?
Assign a value (product of impact x likelihood values)
How often will you monitor?
What actions will you take to mitigate the risk?
Who owns it?
Risk Management: Risk Register
What type of risk?
Impact VH/H/M/L (# or %)
Probability VH/H/M/L (# or %)
Impact x probability = risk value
Managing Risk: Risk Mapping
Sovereign market risk
Example: Government of China decides to cap numbers of students studying internationally to give preference to the development of domestic provision
How exposed are we to the China market (how reliant on Chinese students)?
How much advance warning?
Will there be a list of approved programs? Are we well placed (reputation and presence) to be on it?
Can we predict scale of income loss?
How do we go about mitigating this risk?
Examples of Risk approach
Managing Risk: Market Research 14
Evidence for your strategy
Calculating market share
Supporting segmentation decisions
Choosing communication paths
Costs of recruitment
Understanding student choice
Managing Risk: Market Research 15
Role of Market Intelligence
ICEF/i-graduate Annual Agent Barometer
i-graduate Annual ISB (International Student Barometer)
Managing Risk: Market Research
“Scenario planning is not so much actively predicting the future as it is about understanding the…environment and the nature of the risks that environment can give rise to. Insights gained from scenario planning should equip organisations to recognize and respond to significant emerging threats and opportunities, and in the process building enhanced…competitiveness, resilience and agility”
KPMG Australia 2011
Managing Risk: Scenario Planning 19
Strategy delineates risk appetite
Positioning research and risk mapping generate risk profile
Scenario planning supports future orientation
Reporting supports active risk management
Mitigation actions diminish or eliminate possible impact of risks
Mitigation actions adjust strategy and support realignment of risk profile
Scenarios: What if? 20
Sorting out market exit
Scenarios: What if? 21
Fraud and security issues
1.Map basic trends and driving forces
2.Find key uncertainties
3.Describe critical and unpredictable driving forces
4.Distill to two forces/factors
5.Identify factor extremes and check for plausibility
6.Map these onto an x/y axis
Be careful about how you develop scenarios:
http://monitor.icef.com/2014/02/beyond- forecasting-how-to-use-scenario-planning-to-map- the-future/
Disruption to potential student flows
Impacts of technology
Rise of market entrants and/or competitor disruption
Pathway provision impacts on ESL market?
Summary: Managing Risk
Develop a risk management strategy:
Understand your institution’s risk appetite
Map your risk profile
Develop your risk register
Incorporate risk management in your international strategy
Mitigate risk –using market research to understand change drivers
There are opportunity risks –estimate the risk of doing nothing as much as you manage the risk of doing something!
Pamela Barrett, Director Barton Carlyle
T: (44) 7788 600 388
THANKSFor your participation!