In this lecture I elaborate on the social bases of support for conspiracy theories

1. The Social Bases of Conspiracy
Theories
A L L Y O U N E E D T O K N O W A B O U T …
W W W . P E T E R A C H T E R B E R G . C O M

2. JFK: who’s responsible for his death?
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories

3. Is the media controlling what we see?
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories

4. Is the media controlling who we are?
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories

5. 9/11: who is responsible?
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories

6. What is in those vaccinations against the
swine flu?
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories

7. Are aliens already among us?
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories

8. Trump?
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories

9. Conspiracy theories in the West
•Belief that ‘behind the societal curtains’ evil, malevolent groups are indoctrinating
individuals and/ or governing society
•“Agency panic” (Melley, 2000)
•Three central elements: “nothing is what it seems”, “there is no such thing as
coincidence” and, of course, the “truth is out there’” (Barkun, 2003)
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories

10. Conspiracy theories in the West
Developments….
•Popularizing: from subculture to mainstream (Knight, 2000; Kellner 2002)
•Normalization: from irrational pathology (e.g. Popper, 1948) to hyper-rationality
(Melley, 2000; Harambam, 2017)
•Transformation: from secure to insecure paranoia (Knight, 2000)
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories

11. Data
CROCUS Survey on Worldviews in the Netherlands III: Religion, Politics, and Anti-Institutionalism.
Rotterdam/Tilburg: CentERData. (Achterberg, P., Manevska, K., De Koster, W., Aupers, S.,
Mascini, P., & Van der Waal, J. ;2012)
◦ N=1,302
◦ Response rate: 76.1%
◦ Representative for the Dutch population (after weighing)
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories

12. Measuring affinity with conspiracy
theories
Not directly–
◦ Impartial measure
◦ Low chance of variation in affinity
◦ So – asked about people who say stuff about:
◦ 9/11
◦ Swine flu
◦ Landing on the moon
◦ Death of princess Di
◦ Powerful elites
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories

13. Factoranalyse
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories

14. The social bases of support for
conspiracy theories
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories

15. Modernization and its discontents
Anomie and Alienation: The twin maladies of modernity (Zijderveld, 2002)
Emile Durkheim: erosion of community and anomie
Max Weber: rationalization of modern institutions and alienation (institutional distrust)
Conspiracy theories: Find meaning and purpose in anonymous systems and events (the
truth is out there)
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories

16. Cultural discontents and educational
level
•Elchardus & Smits (2002) – and many, many more studies in the
(inter)national research literature:
•Institutional discontents and Anomie
•Especially among the lower educated!
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?

17. Social bases of
conspiracy
theories
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Higher educated
Affinity with conspiracy
theories
-0,25
Controlled for
gender, age,
religiosity, income
Institutional distrust
Anomia
0,28
0,25
-0,13

18. CT’s as religion for secular people?
Disenchantment & Cultural rationalization (Weber, 1978)
Conspiracy theories find meaning in
just about all phenomena (cf. Aupers, 2012; Melley, 2000).
Secular people:
Atheists (rationality)
Agnostics (not sure)
New Age Spirituals (Anti-Institutionalist, things happen for a reason)
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?

19. These differences can be explained away
by anomie and institutional distrust
Mean affinity with
ct’s
N
Agnostic 2,02 239
Atheists 1,77 292
Spiritual believers 2,03 444
Traditional believers 1,88 225
F 8,06*** 1200
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?

20. Boosting educational conflicts?
Agnostic Atheists Spiritual
believers
Traditional
believers
Education -0,20** -0,15* -0,22** -0,13 n.s.
Mean score affinity for lower
educated
2,21 1,98 2,23 1,92
Mean score affinity for higher
educated
1,81 1,60 1,84 1,74
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?

21. Affinity with political background
Three major findings:
1. Non-voter are more likely to support conspiracy theories (Olliver & Wood, 2014 )
◦ Experimental evidence by Jolley and Douglas (2014)
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?

22. Affinity with political background
Three major findings:
2. Right-wing voters will on average support conspiracy theories more
◦ Voter for Republicans will support these theories more than republicans(Olliver & Wood, 2014)
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?

23. Affinity with political background
Three major findings:
3. Supporters for populist rightist and - leftist parties will support conspiracy theories more
◦ Van Prooijen et al. (2014) extremist ideology
◦ Krouwel & Van Prooijen (2014) Dutch PVV and Socialist Party voters
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?

24. Mechanism 1
Cultural discontents:
◦ Anomie (Srole, 1956) – feeling threatened by the complexities of the contemporary social and cultural
order
◦ Politics:
◦ Lower turnout rates among anomic people (McDill, 1962; Erbe, 1964; Hövermann et al., 2014)
◦ Vote more for Republicans (Templeton, 1966) and for Populist Rightist parties (Arzheimer, 2011; Houtman and Achterberg, 2010).
◦ Conspiracy theories:
◦ Cultural Rationalization (Weber, 1963 [1922])
◦ Strong relationships: (Abalakina‐Paap et al., 1999, Van Prooijen et al, 2015)
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?

25. Mechanisms 2 and 3
Institutional distrust:
◦ Politics:
◦ Lower turnout rates among those with higher levels of institutional distrust (Karp & Banducci, 2008)
◦ Vote more for off-centre political parties (Mair, 1999, Lau, 1985; Achterberg & Mascini, 2013)
◦ Conspiracy theories:
◦ Institutional order is always criticised (Knight, 2000, Melley, 2000)
Institutional knowledge:
◦ Politics:
◦ People with less knowledge: less engaged and lower turnout (Galston 2001; Larcinese, 2007)
◦ No clear connection to rightist of leftist voting behavior
◦ Conspiracy theories:
◦ It can be argued otherwise, but: Stempel et al. (2007): Those with less knowledge, believe more.
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?

26. Mechanism 4
Egalitarianism:
◦ Politics:
◦ Vote more for Democrats (Houtman et al. 2008) and for Populist Leftist parties (Achterberg & Houtman, 2006).
◦ Conspiracy theories:
◦ are generally focused on evil elites that operate within modern politics, democracies, but also within modern corporations
◦ Historical evidence: communism associated with strong fear of conspiracies (Van Prooijen et al, 2015)
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?

27. Results NL
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?

28. In conclusion
Modernity related discontents - anomie and institutional distrust very important!
Explains why:
Lower educated…
Agnostics…
Spiritual believers…
Non-voters and extreme leftist and rightist voters…
…have more affinity with conspiracy theories!
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?
Social bases of
conspiracy
theories
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?

29. Social bases of
conspiracy
theories
Conspiracy
theories?
Educational
bases?
Secular? Political bases?