Whilst our technology has increased our understanding of natural and man-made systems, our fundamental intelligence and abilities have remained static, and so have our limits of comprehension. It turns out that we are ill equipped to deal with the underlying non-linear mechanisms governing the natural, evolved and designed worlds. Exemplars that embody these challenges include: the folding of proteins; the design of targeted medicines; the creation of new materials; dense energy storage; adaptive/programmable materials; and artificial intelligence. So, to live, prosper and survive as a species we have to look to a symbiotic relationship with our technology to aid our comprehension and amplify our intelligence, and our knowledge in an increasingly connected complex an non-linear world.

1. Data
Meta Data
Knowledge
Intelligence
Peter Cochrane
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.org
Sunday, 20 May 12

2. We are challenged by a rising tide of complexity
Sunday, 20 May 12

3. But we have no
general methods and
models to analyse &
understand...we are
largely flying blind...
Sunday, 20 May 12

4. Hypothesis:
•The time of simple models &
mathematics has gone
•W e m a y n e v e r f u l l y
understand many underlying
mechanisms
•Outcomes & implications may
only become clear after the
fact...
Sunday, 20 May 12

5. Decoding DNA is but
one example of humans
being defeated by
c o m p l e x i t y. . . t o b e
rescued by machines...
Sunday, 20 May 12

6. Decoding Protein >1000x
more complex...networked
machines are the only way...
Sunday, 20 May 12

7. Similarly:
•Weather systems
•Seismic data
•Money markets
•Mapping the heavens
•Medical imaging
•Logistics
•Data networks
•Political negotiations
•++++
...again machines come
to our rescue...
Sunday, 20 May 12

8. Underlying non-linear
mechanisms are
difficult / impossible to
characterise... and even
more difficult to
understand...
Sunday, 20 May 12

9. Hypothesis:
The future is about emergent
behaviours and surprises...
Sunday, 20 May 12

10. It is about to get more
complex by way of new
mechanisms & technology
Sunday, 20 May 12

11. The next industrial revolution starts here...
Nano Bio
IT + AI
Sunday, 20 May 12

12. The next industrial revolution starts here...
Nano Bio
IT + AI
This is where all
the real action is
going to be
Sunday, 20 May 12

13. And a move from cycles
of:
‘Food to Waste’
...to
‘Food to Waste to Food’
Sunday, 20 May 12

14. Sustainability cannot
be realised with old
technologies, old
industry models... and
old thinking...
Sunday, 20 May 12

15. Moving on from bulk
materials and the
destruction of
resources...
...3D printing is going
mainstream in industry... and
soon it will be in every office
and home
Sunday, 20 May 12

16. Programming materials
to form 3D objects of
predefined shape &
function...
Sunday, 20 May 12

17. Sensors and decoding
the genome in minutes
will change medicine
and care...
...whilst the decoding the
protein will lead to a new
chapter for the human
race...
Sunday, 20 May 12

18. We can only guess at the social implications of
new technologies as we roll them out...
Sunday, 20 May 12

19. What does it
know
about you?
Sunday, 20 May 12

20. Where you are ?
Where you have been ?
Where you are likely to be going to ?
What does it Who you have met ?
know Who you are going to meet ?
Who you call ?
about you? Who calls you ?
Who you TXT - IM - Link ?
All your contacts
All your urls
All you passwords
What you are doing now ?
What have you done in the past ?
What games you play ?
What apps you use ?
What music you listen to...?
What you watch...?
What you read...?
++++++++++
Sunday, 20 May 12

21. Sunday, 20 May 12

22. The £ $ € is in the
‘Meta Data’
Sunday, 20 May 12

23. The Cloud - will be a
big game changer...
Sunday, 20 May 12

24. We will generate more
and more data...
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25. So where does all this
lead ?
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26. Symbiotic relationships
with our machines...
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27. New intelligences born of
networked people and
machines...
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28. Perspective
Perspective
Perspective
Perspective
Perspective
Sunday, 20 May 12

29. Amplifiers of human
muscle...
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30. Amplifiers of human
minds...
Sunday, 20 May 12

31. Amplifiers of human
capacity, capability...and
machine intellect ?
Sunday, 20 May 12

32. AI for the professions and the masses via The Cloud...
Sunday, 20 May 12

33. Being used by the medical profession today...
Sunday, 20 May 12

34. AFundamental question...
Sunday, 20 May 12

35. Why is my loptop so
dumb ?
Sunday, 20 May 12

36. It has an abundance of:
- processing power
- memory
- RAM
- network access
- WWW information
Sunday, 20 May 12

37. But it acts dumb and
doesn’t:
- learn my habits
- anticipate my needs
- correct my errors
- learn from mistakes
- monitor me and my life
Sunday, 20 May 12

38. Not all that helpful !
38,700,000
14,600,000
Sunday, 20 May 12

39. And yet machines are
better at games than
us...and outsmart us on
general knowledge...
Sunday, 20 May 12

40. They control our
industrial processes
to feed, clothe, and
transport us...
Sunday, 20 May 12

41. And bring new levels
of creativity and
problem solving
skills to the party...
Sunday, 20 May 12

42. But aren’t we just
talking about mere
algorithms running
on stacks of silicon...
they are not really
intelligent - are they ?
Sunday, 20 May 12

43. The big problem is we
have no:
•Description
•Definition
•Quantification
•Measure
...we don’t actually know
what intelligence is...
Sunday, 20 May 12

44. And there is nothing
of much use in the
published literature !
Sunday, 20 May 12

45. However, one voluble
group often voice
their opinion on this
topic... the priesthood
of the singularity...
Sunday, 20 May 12

46. Their predictions look like this..
Internet Super
MIP/s Computer
Computing Power
Intelligence Level
PC
1960 70 80 90 2000 10
Sunday, 20 May 12

47. The deep theoretical
assumption behind
their predictions !!
P.M
Sunday, 20 May 12

48. On this basis they
predict that the
machines will take
around 2035 !
Sunday, 20 May 12

49. So, how do we
compare
complex
systems ?
Sunday, 20 May 12

50. No P or M !
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51. No P or M !
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52. Scanning long term
comatose patients of
10 years...considered to
be totally vegetative !
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53. Necessary conditions for intelligence...
Sensors S >0
Actuators A >0
Memory M >0
Processor P >0
Sunday, 20 May 12

54. Axiom
Intelligence is Entropic
Sunday, 20 May 12

55. So starting with a simple model of this form...
Sensors Processor
S P1
System Memory
Environs M
Actuator Processor
A P2
Sunday, 20 May 12

56. Starting with simple models and building
the complexity a layer at a time...
Processor Memory
Sensors
1 ShortTerm
System
Environs
Processor Memory
Actuator
2 LongTerm
Sunday, 20 May 12

57. Followed by mathematical
juggling,normalisation, a few
liberties, & of engineering
licence...
Ic ~ k log2[1 + K.A.S ( 1 + P.M )]
S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory
Sunday, 20 May 12

58. So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?
Sunday, 20 May 12

59. So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?
How about:
- sensors?
- adaptability?
Sunday, 20 May 12

60. But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!
Sunday, 20 May 12

61. But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!
And our machines will see, hear, smell….
…detect and communicate in a way and
at a rate we cannot!
Sunday, 20 May 12

62. In fact we are rolling out mobile
Sensors and Actuators by the Bn !
Sunday, 20 May 12

63. Intelligence
MIP/s Level
Estimates of
Computing Power
Artificial
Intelligence
Internet PC
1960 70 80 90 2000 10
Sunday, 20 May 12

64. Intelligence
MIP/s Level
Estimates of
Computing Power
Artificial
Intelligence
Internet PC
1960 70 80 90 2000 10
Sunday, 20 May 12

65. What’s hot for the future:
- Networked people and devices
- Networked machines
- Sensors
- Nano, Bio, AI
- New materials
- Sustainable production
- Emergent intelligences
- Emergent behaviours
- Our adaptability
Sunday, 20 May 12

66. ca-global.org
cochrane.org.uk
Thank You
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
Sunday, 20 May 12