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The 2016 election american foreign and economic policy views

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Bruce Stokes, Director of Global Economic Attitudes, examines Americans’ foreign and economic policy views in the context of the 2016 U.S. presidential election in Stockholm, Sweden on January 14, 2016. Pulling from a wide array of survey data, he discusses Americans’ foreign policy priorities as well as views on terrorism, tensions with Russia, relations with China and trade. This presentation is based primarily on two surveys: one conducted by telephone in the U.S. December 8-13, 2015 among 1,500 adults 18 and older, and the other conducted in 40 countries among 45,435 adults 18 and older via telephone and face-to-face interviews from March 25 to May 27, 2015.

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The 2016 election american foreign and economic policy views

  1. The 2016 Election: American Foreign and Economic Policy Views Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes Stockholm, January 2016
  2. January 14, 2016 2 Pew Research Center • Established 1996 • Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts, Foundations • Non-profit, non-partisan, non-advocacy fact tank in Washington • Since 2002, we have surveyed in 85 countries • www.pewresearch.org • @pewresearch www.pewresearch.org
  3. THE HORSE RACE January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 3
  4. Republicans Want a Conservative Nominee, Democrats Prefer a Moderate January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 4 Would rather see their party nominate someone for president in 2016 who is … Very conservative Conservative Moderate Liberal Very Liberal % % % % % Republican 2007 15 45 30 9 1 2015 18 42 32 6 1 Democrat 2007 3 16 48 23 7 2015 6 15 40 26 10 Source: Gallup survey, Dec 2-6, 2015.
  5. Democrats More Positive on the State of U.S. Economy January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 5 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. Economic conditions in the country today are excellent/good 8 14 21 17 39 38 7 27 22 0 50 2012 2013 2014 2015 Republican Democrat Independent %
  6. But Higher Campaign Interest Among Republicans Than at the Same Point in 2008 January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 6 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. 74% 86 71% 75 66% 72 Dec 2007 Dec 2015 Republican Democrat Independent Given a lot/some thought to the candidates
  7. STRATEGIC CONCERNS January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 7
  8. Growing Share of Americans Cite Terrorism and Foreign Issues as the Most Important Problems Facing the U.S. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 8 Note: Question was open-ended – no specific response options were provided. Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. Most important problem facing the country today Dec 2014 Dec 2015 Change % % Terrorism 1 18 +17 Economy (general) 14 9 -5 Defense/National security 2 8 +6 Immigration 12 7 -5 Unemployment 10 7 -3 ISIS/War in Iraq/War in Syria 2 7 +5 Dissatisfaction with government, Obama 10 6 -4 Gun control/Too many guns/ Mass shootings 1 5 +4 Political gridlock/division 8 5 -3 NET: Foreign/International 9 32 +23 NET: Economic issues 34 23 -11
  9. Partisan Divide on International Concerns: More Republicans Than Democrats See Terrorism, Defense as Top Problems January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 9 Note: Question was open-ended – no specific response options were provided. Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. Most important problem facing the country today Dem Ind Rep Rep-Dem diff % % % Defense/National security 5 6 16 R+11 Immigration 3 7 14 R+11 Terrorism 16 18 24 R+8 ISIS/War in Iraq/War in Syria 4 8 8 R+4 Economy (general) 6 12 7 R+1 Dissatisfaction with government, Obama 5 6 4 D+1 Gun control/Too many guns/Mass shootings 5 6 4 D+1 Unemployment 7 8 4 D+3 Political gridlock/Division 8 4 2 D+6 NET: Foreign/International 24 32 42 R+18 NET: Economic issues 20 25 21 D-1
  10. ISIS Tops Public’s International Threat List by Large Margin January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 10 *August 2014 survey asked about ‘growing tension between Russia and its neighbors.’ Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. __ is a major threat to the well-being of the United States 83% 62 59 49 49 43 42 67% 59 57 48 48 48 53 ISIS Iran's nuclear program North Korea's nuclear program China's emergence as a world power Global climate change Israeli-Palestinian conflict Growing authoritatianism in Russia* Dec 2015 Aug 2014
  11. Republicans More Concerned About a Range of International Issues, but Not Climate Change January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 11 *August 2014 survey asked about ‘growing tension between Russia and its neighbors.’ Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. __ is a major threat to the well-being of the United States 93% 79 70 62 56 50 22 79% 52 57 44 38 40 73 ISIS Iran's nuclear program North Korea's nuclear program China's emergence as a world power Isreali-Palestinian conflict Growing authoritatianism in Russia* Global climate change Republican Democrat
  12. Public Favors GOP on Terrorism, Democrats on Climate Change January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 12 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. Which party could do a better job dealing with … 34% 37 37 40 46 53 46% 43 42 42 32 30 Terrorist threat at home Gun control Economy Immigration Global climate change Environment Republican PartyDemocratic Party R+12 R+6 R+5 D+14 D+23 R+2
  13. DEALING WITH TERRORISM January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 13
  14. Republicans Far More Concerned Than Democrats About Islamic Extremism Abroad and at Home January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 14 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. Very concerned about the rise of … Republican Democrat Independent 46 37 60 5761 51 82 83 44 29 51 53 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Islamic extremism around the world 43 36 50 49 59 54 71 65 46 24 46 38 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Islamic extremism in the U.S.
  15. Most Republicans Say Government Anti-Terror Policies Haven’t Gone Far Enough January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 15 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. Gov’t anti-terrorism policies have not gone far enough to adequately protect the country 55 71 47 54 46 49 0 100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Republican Democrat Independent%
  16. Few Believe Current Military Effort in Iraq and Syria Is Going Well January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 16 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. U.S. military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria is going … 58% 62 58 58 35% 30 36 34 Dec 2015 July 2015 Feb 2015 Oct 2014 Not too/at all well Very/Fairly well
  17. But Most Americans Continue to Support U.S. Military Campaign Against ISIS January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 17 Note: September 2014 survey asked about Barack Obama’s plan for a military campaign against militants in Iraq and Syria. August 2014 survey asked about U.S. airstrikes against militants in Iraq only. Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. __ of the U.S. military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria 54 53 57 63 63 64 31 29 33 30 26 28 0 100 Approve Disapprove Dec 2015 July 2015 Feb 2015 Oct 2014 % Aug 2014 Sept 2014
  18. Most Republicans Favor Sending U.S. Ground Troops to Iraq and Syria January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 18 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. __ the U.S. sending ground troops to fight Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria 47% 66 48 33 47% 28 47 64 6% 5 5 4 TOTAL Republican Independent Democrat Favor Oppose Don't know
  19. And the Public Is Optimistic About ISIS Fight in Long-Term January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 19 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. U.S. and its allies will __ in their military campaign against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria 36% 27 55% 66 July 2015 December 2015 Definitely/Probably fail Definitely/Probably succeed
  20. NATO AND RUSSIA January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 20
  21. January 14, 2016 21www.pewresearch.org NATO Support Steady in U.S. Favorable view of NATO 2009 2011 2013 2015 09-15 Change 13-15 Change % % % % U.S. 53 54 49 49 -4 0 Canada — — 57 56 — -1 France 71 70 58 64 -7 +6 Germany 73 60 59 55 -18 -4 Italy 64 — 60 64 0 +4 Poland 75 72 64 74 -1 +10 Spain 56 62 42 47 -9 +5 UK 63 63 59 60 -3 +1 Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  22. January 14, 2016 22www.pewresearch.org Americans More Ready Than Europeans to Use Force to Defend NATO Allies If Russia got into a serious military conflict with one of its neighboring countries that is our NATO ally, do you think our country should use military force to defend that country? 56% 53 48 U.S. Canada EU median Note: EU median includes France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  23. January 14, 2016 23www.pewresearch.org … But Deep U.S. Partisan Divide on Russia-Ukraine Democrats Republicans Diff % % U.S. should use military force to defend NATO ally against Russia 47 69 +22 Support for NATO sending arms to the Ukrainian gov’t 39 60 +21 Increase economic sanctions on Russia 23 40 +17 Support for Ukraine becoming a NATO member 59 71 +12 Russia is a major military threat to its neighbors 56 67 +11 Russia is to blame for violence in eastern Ukraine 39 50 +11 Support for Western countries providing economic aid to Ukraine 60 69 +9 Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  24. CHINA January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 24
  25. January 14, 2016 25www.pewresearch.org China Seen Unfavorably by More Than Half of Americans U.S. views of China 43 52 42 39 50 49 51 40 37 35 38 35 29 39 42 38 36 36 40 52 55 54 0 80 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Favorable Unfavorable % Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  26. January 14, 2016 26www.pewresearch.org Republicans and Older Americans Most Critical of China U.S. views of China 54% 63 50 51 39 51 64 38% 27 42 42 55 41 27 TOTAL Republican Independent Democrat 18-29 30-49 50+ FavorableUnfavorable Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  27. January 14, 2016 27www.pewresearch.org And Republicans More Concerned Than Democrats About Most China-Related Issues __ is a very serious problem Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  28. January 14, 2016 28www.pewresearch.org Moreover, A Partisan Divide Over the Asia Pivot Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  29. THE OBAMA REFERENDUM January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 29
  30. January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 30 Source: NBC/WSJ survey, Dec 6-9, 2015. Majority of Americans Disapprove of Obama’s Handling of Foreign Policy __ of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling foreign policy 49 48 52 52 44 37 37 42 44 41 40 48 55 57 0 100 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Approve Disapprove %
  31. Majority Say Obama Is “Not Tough Enough” on Foreign Policy January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 31 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. When it comes to foreign policy and national security Barack Obama is … June 2009 April 2010 Sept 2012 Nov 2013 Aug 2014 Jan 2015 July 2015 Dec 2015 % % % % % % % % Too tough 2 2 2 5 3 5 4 2 Not tough enough 38 47 41 51 54 55 53 58 About right 51 41 42 37 36 37 37 34 Don’t know 8 10 15 6 7 3 3 6
  32. And Criticism of Obama’s Toughness Is a Partisan Affair January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 32 Source: Pew Research Center survey, Dec 8-13, 2015. Too tough Not tough enough About right Don’t know % % % % TOTAL 2 58 34 6 Republican 1 84 9 6 Conservative 1 89 4 5 Moderate/Liberal 1 72 19 7 Independent 3 61 30 6 Democrat 2 35 58 5 Conservative/Moderate 3 45 47 6 Liberal 2 26 69 3 When it comes to foreign policy and national security Barack Obama is …
  33. ECONOMIC ENGAGEMENT January 14, 2016 www.pewresearch.org 33
  34. January 14, 2016 34www.pewresearch.org Relative to Other Issues, Trade Ranks Near the Bottom of Americans’ Concerns and Always Has Top priority for the president and Congress *Before 2014, question asked about ‘illegal immigration.’ Source: Pew Research Center survey, Jan 7-11, 2015. --Bush-- -------------------------------------------Obama------------------------------------------- 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % % % % % % % % Defending against terrorism 80 76 80 73 69 71 73 76 Strengthening nation’s economy 68 85 83 87 86 86 80 75 Reducing the budget deficit 53 53 60 64 69 72 63 64 Dealing with immigration* 55 41 40 46 39 39 40 52 Protecting the environment 57 41 44 40 43 52 49 51 Dealing with moral breakdown in country 47 45 45 43 44 40 39 48 Dealing with global warming 38 30 28 26 25 28 29 38 Dealing with global trade issues 34 31 32 34 38 31 28 30
  35. January 14, 2016 35www.pewresearch.org Americans Say Trade Is Good for the Country Growing trade and business ties with other countries are a good thing Note: 14 country median based on countries surveyed in 2002, 2007-2010 and 2014. U.S. not included in median. Source: Spring 2014 Global Attitudes survey. 78 59 53 65 66 68 83 78 80 81 84 76 40 100 2002 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 14 country median U.S. %
  36. January 14, 2016 36www.pewresearch.org Yet Few Think Trade Deals Boost the Economy Free trade agreements … Note: “Other” and “Don’t know” responses not shown. Source: Pew Research Center survey, May 12-18, 2015. 25% 19 31 42% 43 34 2009 2010 2015 Make economy grow Slow economy down 18% 24 25 Don't make a difference 11 8 11 49 45 46 2009 2010 2015 Make wages higher Make wages lower 24 34 33 Don't make a difference 13 8 17 53 55 46 2009 2010 2015 Create jobs Lead to job losses 19 24 28 Don't make a difference
  37. January 14, 2016 37www.pewresearch.org Despite Such Skepticism, Half of Americans Support TPP TPP will be __ for the U.S. 49% 13% 9% 29% Don't know Good thing Bad thing Haven't heard enough/ Neither (VOL) Question wording: “The United States is negotiating a free-trade agreement with countries in the Asia-Pacific region called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Do you think this trade agreement would be a good thing for our country or a bad thing?” Source: Spring 2015 Global Attitudes survey.
  38. January 14, 2016 38www.pewresearch.org And Half Back TTIP TTIP will be a __ for our country 50% 53 21% 20 17% 16 2015 2014 Good thing Bad thing Haven't heard enough/Neither (VOL) Question wording: “As you may know, the United States and the European Union are negotiating a free-trade agreement called the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP. Do you think this trade agreement will be a good thing for our country or a bad thing?” Source: 2015 Pew Research Center survey.
  39. January 14, 2016 39www.pewresearch.org A Significant Partisan Divide Exists on Both TPP and TTIP __ would be a good thing for the U.S. Republican Democrat Dem-Rep Diff % % TPP 43 51 +8 TTIP 45 59 +14 Source: 2015 Pew Research Center survey.
  40. January 14, 2016 40 All Pew Research Center reports and data are available online at www.pewresearch.org www.pewresearch.org

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