Gavin Elliott, principal and head of Manchester Studio, BDP

1. Zero Carbon Manchester 2038

2. Global and UK Context

3. Global and UK Context
What is climate change and why does it matter?
Effects of climate change
• Permanent rise in global average temperature.
• More frequent and more extreme weather events.
• Rise in sea levels (estimated 2 metres by 2100).
Effects on human life
• Significant parts of the world made uninhabitable due to
extreme temperatures.
• Death and disruption caused by extreme weather events.
• Disruption to food and water supplies.
• Significant parts of the world made uninhabitable due to
flooding (sea level rise).
• Increase in illnesses and diseases.
• Mass migration.
• Significant disruption to the global economy.
• Massive costs of adaptation.
Source: Le Treut et al. 2007, FAQ 1.3, fig. 1

4. Global and UK Context
Paris Climate Accord 2015
© Arnaud Bouissou - MEDDE / SG COP21

5. Global and UK Context

6. Global and UK Context
https://www.globalcovenantofmayors.org

7. Vancouver Milan Melbourne
All new family and multi-unit low-rise
housing emits zero GHGs, thus improving
air quality and saving $44 million in annual
energy bills.
Introduced congestion charges to
eliminate 25 million car journeys into the
city centre in just three years.
Regional institutions collectively purchased
a long-term renewable energy plan from
a newly built wind farm, that has saved
96,800 tonnes of GHG emissions per year,
as well as generating 150 new jobs.
Cities taking action
Global and UK Context
AdobeStock

8. A new era of activism
Global and UK Context
PenguinRandomHouseUK
FrederickFlorin/AFPviaGettyImages
ManchesterEveningNews

9. Manchester’s
Zero Carbon Commitments

10. Manchester’s Zero Carbon Commitments
Carbon Budget

11. Carbon Budget
Manchester’s Zero Carbon Commitments

12. Carbon Budget
15 million
tonnes CO2
2018-2100
Manchester’s Zero Carbon Commitments

13. Manchester’s Zero Carbon Commitments
3500.000
3000.000
2500.000
2000.000
1500.000
1000.000
5000.000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
Historic emissions
2009-2018
Currently emitting circa
2.0m tonnes
per year
Progress to date
41% reduction
in CO2 from 2005 levels

14. Manchester’s Zero Carbon Commitments
3500.000
3000.000
2500.000
2000.000
1500.000
1000.000
5000.000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
15m tonnes carbon budget
15m
tonnes
CO2
= 2m tonnes
per year
@ the current rate of emissions,
the budget will have been used
up by 2026

15. Manchester’s Zero Carbon Commitments
3500.000
3000.000
2500.000
2000.000
1500.000
1000.000
5000.000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
Science based target
Manchester’s
science based
target
15%
reduction year
on year

16. Manchester’s Zero Carbon Commitments
3500.000
3000.000
2500.000
2000.000
1500.000
1000.000
5000.000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
UK Government commitment
UK Government’s
‘World Leading Target’
Zero carbon by 2050
EMISSIONS
OVER TARGET

17. Background - Manchester’s Carbon Emissions
Manchester’s Zero Carbon Commitments

18. 20502020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Staying in Budget
Manchester’s Zero Carbon Commitments
2015
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
MtCO2e
Level 1
Current
trajectory
Required
trajectory
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Source: Anthesis’ tool

19. Shift to electrification by 2050Heating and cooling demand reduction by 2050
Commercial Buildings
Manchester’s Zero Carbon Commitments
Level 4 - most ambitious level
40%
reduction in space heating
demand.
30%
reduction in hot water demand.
60%
reduction in cooling demand.
Level 4 - most ambitious level
The proportion of commercial
heat supplied using electricity is
80-100%
Level 1 - least ambitious level
Space heating remains stable.
25%
increase in hot water demand.
Cooling demand remains stable.
Level 1 - least ambitious level
The proportion of commercial
heat supplied using electricity is
0-10%
Source: Anthesis’ tool

20. Shift to zero emissions transport Reducing distance travelled and changing mode
Transport
By 2035
Level 4 - most ambitious level
25% reduction in passenger
Km.
Manchester’s Zero Carbon Commitments
By 2050
Level 1 - least ambitious level
Individuals travel the same
distance as today.
By 2035
Level 4 - most ambitious level
100%
zero emissions cars and buses.
By 2025
Complete railway
electrification
By 2050
Level 1 - least ambitious level
100%
zero emission cars and buses.
100%
buses and passenger trains
electrified.
Source: Anthesis’ tool

21. Domestic Buildings - reducing demand and average temperature of homes
Manchester’s Zero Carbon Commitments
Level 4: Most ambitious level
Average room temperature
decreases to 16o
C (across all
rooms and all seasons).
Level 1: Least ambitious level
Average room temperature
remains at 18o
C (across all
rooms and all seasons).
Level 4: Most ambitious level
60% (130,000) homes will
be insulated, with the average
thermal leakiness reduced by
75%.
Level 1: Least ambitious level
17% (337,000) homes will
be insulated, with the average
thermal leakiness reduced by
20%.
Source: Anthesis’ tool

22. Supply - Significant increase in roll out of renewable technologies (eg solar)
Manchester’s Zero Carbon Commitments
Level 4: Most ambitious level
16m2
solar PV is provided on
50% of domestic properties.
3.1km2
on commercial roof
space and ground mounted sites.
Level 1: Least ambitious level
16m2
solar PV is provided on
25% of domestic properties.
0.1km2
on commercial roof
space and ground mounted sites.
Source: Anthesis’ tool

23. Commercial Property Sector

24. Commercial Property Sector
Buildings
Actions:
• Measuring carbon and benchmarking projects.
• Retrofitting stock to zero carbon standards.
• Net zero carbon new builds.
• SMART energy and storage systems – use of SMART BIM.
• Lobbying for high(er) standards in construction.
• Improving sustainability of supply chains in F&M, Building
Services and management.
• Encouraging adaptive reuse, recycling and promoting the
circular economy.
Emissions from buildings
45%

25. Transport
Actions:
• Promotion of walking, cycling and active travel for staff.
• Financial incentives for electric vehicles for staff.
• Electric vehicle fleet.
• Commercial partnership opportunities.
• Reduce emissions from flying.
Commercial Property Sector
29%
Emissions
from
transport

26. Consumption based emissions
Emissions from:
Hidden/
embedded/
consumption
based
emissions
Food Construction
Materials
Clothes Furniture Electronics Waste
Commercial Property Sector
26%

27. Meeting our targets
Actions for all
Getting started Taking Action Inspiring and influencing
14. Voice your opinion
15. Spread the word
1. Commit to act 9. Existing buildings4. Food
6. Flying
5. Transport2. Awareness,
and Education
3. Measure your CO2
10. Green spaces and
gardens
13. Where you
put your money
11. Water
conservation
7. Reduce, reuse
and recycle
8. Renewable energy
12. New
developments and
construction

28. Meeting
our targets
The wider benefits

29. In conclusion...
“Firms ignoring climate crisis will go bankrupt”
• Real and urgent need to deal with Climate Crisis
• Need to follow Science Based Targets
• Bad things will happen if we don’t...
But
• Benefit from Early Movers Advantage
• Future-proof your business
• Help to create a better, greener, more liveable City.
Commit to being a LEADER not a follower
Photograph: Leon Neal/Getty Images

30. Zero Carbon Manchester 2038