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2011 - Best Practices In Forecasting

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How to improve tactical product/market forecasting estimates. What are some techniques used in your company, with your portfolio?

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2011 - Best Practices In Forecasting

  1. 1. Best Practices in Demand Forecasting<br />CHARLES DIMOV<br />CDIMOV@HOTMAIL.COM<br />OR FIND ME ON lINKEDiN<br />
  2. 2. Operate Efficiently & Effectively<br />Companies must understand Supply & Demand constraints<br />Accurate Forecasts<br />Prepare for resource needs<br />Prepare for structural evolution<br />Invest right amount of Capital at right time<br />Win in Market!<br />Why?<br />
  3. 3. OverSupply:<br />Depreciating resources<br />Obsolescence<br />Overstaffing<br />Excess Inventory<br />Affects Price <br />Drives Promo addiction<br />Erodes Product Value<br />Erodes Brand Value<br />Wrong Forecast<br />COGS ↑<br />Cash Flow Tied<br />ROA ↓<br />GM ↓<br />Contribution Margin ↓<br />Acid Test Score ↓<br />Viability of Company ↓<br />
  4. 4. UnderSupply:<br />Product Shortages<br />Lost Sales<br />Price ↑<br />Brand Promise ↓<br />Bad PR<br />Customer Confidence ↓<br />Months to recover in Supply Chain<br />Wrong Forecast<br />Market Share ↓<br />Lost Revenue Opp.<br />Earnings ↓<br />P/E (not optimal)<br />Lost Market Position<br />Competitor Wins<br />
  5. 5. To Avoid This Forecast…<br />Image by: Iam Wahid (16Jul2009)<br />
  6. 6. Historics<br />Analysis<br />Triangulate<br />EyeBall<br />Feedback<br />Forecast Approach<br />
  7. 7. Whenever possible – use HISTORICAL DATA<br />For NPI – use closest HISTORICAL DATA<br />“Study History or be doomed to repeat it” Brother LomanLavigne<br />First Principle<br />Time variability, <br />and scale<br />
  8. 8. Analysis: Seasonality<br />Trend<br />1 Economic Cycle<br />Cycle<br />1 Year<br />Seasonality<br />
  9. 9. Excel / Systat / SPSS / SAS / MiniTab<br />Descriptive Statistics to show boundaries<br />Analysis: Statistics<br />B<br />A<br />NOTE: Watch the STD Deviations<br />
  10. 10. Many S/W Tools <br />Expert System chosen models<br />Lowest MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)<br />Export to Excel<br />Can be a Dead Simple Process<br />Analysis: Forecast Tools<br />
  11. 11. Forecast Pro<br />$1,295 - $8,995 US<br />www.forecastpro.com<br />Vanguard<br />www.vanguardsw.com<br />DemandWorksSmoothie<br />$500 - $6,000 US<br />www.demandworks.com<br />SAS <br />www.sas.com<br />Analysis: Forecast Tools<br />
  12. 12. CrowdSourcing: “under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent, and are often smarter than the smartest people in them.” p.xi Introduction, Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki.<br />Analysis: CrowdSourcing<br />???<br />
  13. 13. No one model will be accurate every time<br />Forecasting is inexact Dark-Art / Science<br />Provides General Guidance on direction and magnitude<br />Triangulate<br />-Seasonality Est.<br />-Forecast Tool Est.<br />X<br />-Channel Est.<br />-Sales Funnel<br />-Supply Constraint<br />-CrowdSource<br />
  14. 14. Product / Marketing Mgr Smarts / Heuristics<br />Eyeball<br />Major DM + Ad Campaign<br />+ Promotional Offer<br />Version 2 Pre-Anounce<br />will stall sales – B4 <br />general availability<br />
  15. 15. Product / Marketing Mgrs<br />Pricing Model changes<br />Promotional Offers<br />Marketing Campaigns<br />Discounting changes<br />Brand effects<br />Bankruptcies / New entrants<br />Competitive Analysis<br />Market Conditions<br />Major Events<br />Reduced Defects<br />Eyeball<br />New Channel Partners<br />Distribution Model<br />Disruptive Technology Chg<br />Market Preference shift<br />Manufacturing capacity<br />Market Share expectations<br />Global Events<br />Economic Cycle effects<br />Inventory Returns<br />Other Factors<br />
  16. 16. Every Quarter – check Forecasts vs Actuals<br />Focus = biggest deviation<br />Tweak Model<br />Do it again!<br />Feedback Loop<br />
  17. 17. Summary<br />Historics <br />Analysis<br />Triangulate<br />EyeBall<br />Feedback<br />Image by: CobraSoft<br />
  18. 18. Books: Not found a practical book <br />Websites: www.ibf.org (not s/w specific) (discussion forum)<br />Article: TPMA Focus 3Q11<br />More on Forecasting<br />