Givens and Wild Cards in Energy Foresight

2. GIVENS AND WILD CARDS IN
ENERGY FORESIGHT
Alexander Van de Putte

3. Source: Alexander Van de Putte, Cambridge University (2010)
Predetermined elements that have
two defining characteristics:
‣ The degree of uncertainty must be low
‣ The level of impact must be high
GIVENS Defined

4. Demographics
Climate
Change
Hydrocarbon
Supply
GIVENS in Energy Foresight

5. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
10,000
5,000
2,000
1,000
World
200
100
50
20
10
Asia
Europe
Africa
Latin America
Northern America
Oceania
People,Thousands
People, Millions
People, Millions
Age
Age
Female
Male
Source: data from United Nations Population Division
World Population
400 200 0 200 400
0-4
25-29
50-54
75-79
100+
World 2010
1.000 500 0 500 1.000
0-4
25-29
50-54
75-79
100+
World 2030

6. Source: data from United Nations Population Division
People, Millions
Age
People, Millions
Age
People, Millions
Age
People, Millions
Age
People, Millions
Age
People, Millions
Age
Female
Male
Population Trends - OECD

7. Source: data from United Nations Population Division
Population Trends – Large
Emerging Markets
Female
Male
People, Millions
Age
People, Millions
Age
People, Millions
Age
People, Millions
Age
Age
Age
People, Millions
People, Millions

8. 3,000 10,000 15,000 25,000
Energydemand
Demand explodes as
industrialization and
personal mobility
take off
Demand grows more
slowly than incomes as
services dominate growth
and basic household
energy needs are met
Demand slows as
the main spurt of
industrialization is
completed
Economic growth
requires little
additional energy
GDP/Capita in constant PPP terms
Source: Shell, Global scenarios to 2050
Energy Demand and Economic
Growth

9. Resources (billion barrels)
Productioncost(dollars–2008)
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Produced MENA
Other
con-
ventional
oil
CO2-EOR
EOR
Artic
Deepwater
and ultra
deepwater
Heavy oil and
bitumen
Oil
shales Gas to
Liquids
Coal to
Liquids
8,000 9,000
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook
Hydrocarbon Resources

10. Source: Jeroen van der Veer, Shell (2008)
“We are experiencing a step-change in the
growth rate of energy demand due to
population growth and economic
development, and Shell estimates that after
2015 supplies for easy-to-access oil and gas
will no longer keep up with demand.”
Hydrocarbon Supply – 1/4

11. Source: Christophe de Margerie, TOTAL (2009)
“The world will never be able to produce
more than 89 million barrels of oil a day.”
“We are running the risk of another oil crisis
when demand outstrips supply around 2014
or 2015.”
Hydrocarbon Supply – 2/4

12. Source: Peter J. Robertson, Chevron Corporation (2008)
“It took 125 years to consume the first trillion
barrels of oil, but it will only take another 35
years to consume the next trillion barrels.”
Hydrocarbon Supply – 3/4

13. Source: Consensus view among peakoilist
100
80
60
40
20
0
Millionbarrelsofoilequivalentperday
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
World energy demand
World energy supply
Hydrocarbon Supply – 4/4

14. Source: IPCC, 2007
“most of (>50% of) the observed increase in
globally averaged temperatures since the
mid-20th century is very likely (confidence
level >90%) due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic (human) greenhouse gas
concentrations”.
Climate Change

15. Source: UNEP (http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/climate_change_processes_characteristics_and_threats)
Hydrocarbon resources – 1/3
Climate change:
Processes, characteristics
and threats

16. Source: Alexander Van de Putte, Cambridge University (2010)
Characteristics:
‣ It must be a very low probability event;
‣ It must have a huge impact, and;
‣ It must be seen to be logical and
explainable after the facts.
Wild Cards Defined

17. Source: PFC Energy (2009)
Brazil
0
Millionbarrelsofoilequivalentperday
1750
1250
1500
1000
750
500
250
Russia Iraq Nigeria Kazakhstan
Meet the BRINKs

18. The 2 Faces of Nuclear Energy – 1/3
Source: Hyperion Power Generation

19. Source: TerraPower
A.Coolant pumps
B. Expansion area for fission
gases
C. Fuel: spent fuel from
traditional nuclear reactors.
Life time: 60 years
D.Fission wave (red)
E. Breeding wave (yellow)
F. Liquid sodium coolant
The 2 Faces of Nuclear Energy – 2/3

20. Traditional view
BIG
FIXED
STATIC
NOT
SAFE
NUCLEAR
WASTE
Source: Hyperion Power Generation
Emerging view
SMALL
MODULAR
SCALABLE
CANNOT GO
SUPERCRITICAL
CLOSES THE NUCLEAR
FUEL CYCLE
STATIONARY BATTERY
The 2 Faces of Nuclear Energy – 3/3
A Fundamental Paradigm Shift

21. GIVENS AND WILD CARDS IN
ENERGY FORESIGHT
Alexander Van de Putte