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The Dragon Economy slows - implications for the UK & the world economy

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China’s economic growth has been unprecedented in scale & duration. But this well trodden path of investment-based growth has been seen before. China’s issue is it looks to have gone too far.
In this slide pack, Marcus Wright sets out a six-point China checklist outlining what the most important developments and what they mean for the rest of the world.

Publié dans : Économie & finance
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The Dragon Economy slows - implications for the UK & the world economy

  1. The Dragon Economy slows - Implications for the UK & the world economy Marcus Wright RBS Economics August 2015
  2. China’s slowdown has been on the cards for a while 2 20% 30% 40% 50% 1 11 21 31Years Investment as a share of national income (%) China (1996-2013) Japan (1955-1985) S. Korea (1976-2006) Source: Macrobond China’s economic growth has been unprecedented in scale & duration. But this well trodden path of investment-based growth has been seen before. China’s issue is it looks to have gone too far.
  3. 1. Downward pressure on growth 2. Depressed rates of world trade growth The China checklist – what’s happening? 5. Strained financial links to China 4. Global interest rates likely lower for longer 3. Downward pressure on inflation ?6. An all-out credit crunch in China ?
  4. China’s growth is slowing fast, however you measure it 4Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, RBS Economics 0 5 10 15 20 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 GDP Growth Proxy - Y/Y Change GDP Y/Y Change China appears to be slowing more than the headline figures suggest. The growth prospects of commodity producing countries & other emerging markets with close ties to China have been damaged.
  5. A big reason why world trade is so bad right now 5 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Emerging Asia Import Volume (% Y/Y Change) Asian Financial Crisis Post-Tech Bubble Slowdown Global Financial Crisis China induced slowdown? Source: Netherlands CPB
  6. Yuan devaluation - the cherry on the disinflationary sundae 6Source: Macrobond, BIS • Yuan devaluation has grabbed the headlines recently. But it is not yet the big story. • China has been exporting disinflation for a while now. And it is becoming more and more of an influence on world prices. -30 50 China Indonesia Brazil Poland India Russia Malaysia Mexico South Africa Emerging Market Currencies Increasingly 'under-valued' Increasingly 'over-valued' 0 20 40 60 80 1971-85 1986-98 1999-2013 Causes of Inflation Variability in Advanced Economies (%) Common factor Chinese export prices
  7. Global interest rates lower for longer 7 4 7 7 9 15 17 19 21 22 24 25 25 26 38 55 Turkey (Jan-14) Denmark (Apr-11) Eurozone (Apr-11) N. Zealand (Jun-10) N.Zealand (Mar-14) Sweden (Jul-10) Chile (Jun-10) Hungary (Nov-10) Poland (Jan-11) Korea (Jul-10) Australia (Oct-09) Israel (Aug-09) Norway (Nov-09) Iceland (Sep-11) Canada (Jun-10) Number of months from 1st rate hike to first rate cut All of these OECD central banks have raised rates since the financial crisis. All have had to lower them again. Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond
  8. Greece has grabbed all the headlines. It shouldn’t. 8 - 500 1,000 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Global Banking Sector Exposure to Greece and China ($ Bn) Greece China Source: BIS, Macrobond -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% China Germany US France Ireland Italy Spain Greece Change in UK financial sector exposure (2009 - 2015) • While the UK has decreased its financial exposure to most countries since the crisis, loans to China have sky- rocketed. • The world’s attention has been focussed on Greece. But the world’s banking sector is 17 times more exposed to China. And that is before we count exposure to Hong Kong.
  9. An impending credit crunch? 9 China’s banking sector is sitting on problem loans far in excess of official figures. Other countries’ experiences suggests it could be in for something worse than a slowdown. 24% 32% 42% 42% 52% 60% 82% 104% 105% 0% 40% 80% 120% Indon. - 1997 US - 2009 Japan - 1992 S. Korea - 1997 UK - 2009 Sweden - 1990 China - 2014 Thailand - 1997 Ire - 2007 Rise in private sector credit as % of GDP in the six years to..... Source: Macrobond, IMF
  10. Follow us on Twitter 10 @RBS_Economics https://twitter.com/rbs_economics Or visit us online
  11. 11 Disclaimer This material is published by The Royal Bank of Scotland plc (“RBS”), for information purposes only and should not be regarded as providing any specific advice. Recipients should make their own independent evaluation of this information and no action should be taken, solely relying on it. This material should not be reproduced or disclosed without our consent. It is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited. Whilst this information is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by RBS and RBS makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any kind, as regards the accuracy or completeness of this information, nor does it accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising in any way from any use made of or reliance placed on, this information. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of RBS’s RBS Economics Department, as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The classification of this document is PUBLIC. The Royal Bank of Scotland plc. Registered in Scotland No. 90312. Registered Office: 36 St Andrew Square, Edinburgh EH2 2YB. The Royal Bank of Scotland plc is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. © Copyright 2015 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc. All rights reserved

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