Presentation by Issoufou Baoua, Agrhymet/CILSS,3 December 2018

1. Banjul, December 2018
34TH ANNUAL MEETING
Food and Nutrition
Insecurity situation
in the Sahel and West Africa
October-December 2018 & June – August 2019
by BAOUA, Issoufou, CRA/CILSS

2. Plan
1. How the analysis process is done?
2. Overview on existing data
3. Outcomes of the zone classification
4. Population estimation per phase
5. Major difficulties
6. Recommendations

3. 1. How the actual analysis
process is conducted?
CH analyses carried :
 Gulf of Guinea countries from 8 - 12 October 2018,
 Nigeria from 22 October to 2nd November 2018
 Sahel countries from 5 - 10 November 2018
 Niger and regional consolidation: 12 – 18 November
2018

4. Funded et
Technical
partners

5. 2. Point on existing data
required by CH process
Pays
CA EME Nut Mort
SCA rCSI HDDS HHS HEA Proxy SAME MAG MUAC BMI TBM TMM5
Tchad
Mali
Sierra Léone
Mauritanie Med
Ghana
Sénégal
Guinée
Gambie
Burkina Faso
Libéria
Cabo Verde
Guinée Bissau
Nigéria
Togo
Côte d’Ivoire
Bénin
Niger

6. 2. Point on existing data on
CH contributing factors
Available in all the countries
– Hazard and vulnerability: Flood, animal disasters, drought situation,
insecurity, meteorological data…
– Food availability: Agricultural and pastoral campaign reports, FSA data,
– Access to Food: FSA data, market monitoring data,
– Utilization including access to potable water: FSA; SMART, nutrition
screening data, access to water reports…
– Stability: FSA data, livelihood calendar, trend on production…

7. 3. Identification of area at
Food and Nutrition insecurity
for the Current & Projected
situation

8. Analyzed Zones in the 17 countries
October – December 2018
7
469
158
22
- -
-
100
200
300
400
500
NA Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
7
341
237
70
1 -
-
100
200
300
400
500
NA Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
656 zones
• 7 not analysed
• 559 analysed
June – August 2019

9. Non analysée Minimale Sous pression Crise Urgence Famine Lac Tchad
October – December 2018
Area under crisis
Food Insecurity
situation during
the current
period:
1. North-east
States
Adamawa,
Borno, Yobe
in Nigeria
2. Tibesti in
Chad
3. Tillaberi in
Niger

10. Non analysée Minimale Sous pression Crise Urgence Famine Lac Tchad
June – August 2019
Area under crisis Food
Insecurity situation
during the projected
period:
1. North-east States
Adamawa, Borno,
Yobe in Nigeria
2. Tibesti in Chad
3. Kawar, North Ader
and Tillaberi in Niger
4. Sahel in Burkina
Faso
5. South-east
Mauritania
6. North center in
Senegal
7. Northern region in
the Gambia

11. Nigeria 16 States and FCT
Phase
1
Phase
2
Phase
3
Phase
4
Phase
5
Total
zones
50 39 16 0 0 105
Phase
1
Phase
2
Phase
3
Phase
4
Phase
5
Total
zones
30 41 33 1 0 105

12. Non analysée Minimale Sous pression Crise Urgence Famine Lac Tchad
June-August 2017
June-August 2018
June-August 2019
Area under crisis Food Insecurity
situation during the two past year
and can maintain during the next
coming lean season :
1. North-east States Adamawa,
Borno, Yobe in Nigeria
2. Liptako Gourma zone
3. Northern Mali
4. Ferlo zone in Senegal
New zone to
give
attention for
relevant
AFNI
monitoring

13. 287,8 millions of total analyzed
population in the 17 countries
Global situation in
current and projected
period
October-December 2018 June - August 2019
Minimal
84%
Under presure
14%
Crisis to worst
2%
Minimal
79%
Under presure
18%
Crisis to worst
3%

14. October – December 2018
Pays Population Minimale Sous-pression Crise Urgence Famine
Total crisesà
pire
Togo 5 575 100 5 163 256 416 140 4 296 - - 4 296
Cabo Verde 544 081 459 992 73 588 10 501 - - 10 501
GuinéeBissau 1 225 986 1 077 181 134 906 13 899 - - 13 899
Libéria 4 349 564 3 976 527 355 837 17 200 - - 17 200
Ghana 30 280 811 26 891 249 3 368 334 21 228 - - 21 228
Bénin 11 628 541 10 291 929 1 299 731 36 880 - - 36 880
Côted'Ivoire 19 752 781 16 720 262 2 988 318 44 201 - - 44 201
Guinée 9 938 952 8 915 318 933 140 90 494 - - 90 494
Sénégal 13 060 604 11 093 082 1 873 033 94 490 - - 94 490
Gambie 1 790 903 1 315 621 373 196 98 888 3 198 - 102 086
Sierra Léone 6 622 480 5 005 757 1 509 892 106 831 - - 106 831
Mali 19 419 003 16 918 204 2 315 796 176 862 8 141 - 185 003
Tchad 14 340 547 12 449 363 1 702 296 187 801 1 087 - 188 888
Mauritanie 4 077 344 2 909 380 941 032 223 847 3 085 - 226 932
Burkina Faso 20 762 186 17 139 488 3 315 651 307 047 - - 307 047
Niger 20 812 182 16 351 485 3 860 367 567 691 32 638 - 600 329
Nigéria 103 665 605 86 305 930 14 905 355 2 320 535 133 785 - 2 454 320
Région 287 846 670 242 984 023 40 366 613 4 322 692 181 934 - 4 504 625

15. Period : June – August 2019
Pays Population Minimale Sous-pression Crise Urgence Famine
Total crisesà
pire
Togo 5 575 100 5 050 658 530 162 5 720 - - 5 720
Cabo Verde 544 081 452 721 80 369 10 991 - - 10 991
GuinéeBissau 1 225 986 1 100 200 120 592 5 194 - - 5 194
Libéria 4 349 564 3 798 933 512 233 38 397 - - 38 397
Ghana 30 280 811 27 399 995 2 828 959 51 857 - - 51 857
Bénin 11 628 541 10 324 961 1 277 343 26 237 - - 26 237
Côted'Ivoire 19 752 781 16 398 243 3 303 966 50 572 - - 50 572
Guinée 9 938 952 8 381 442 1 379 897 177 613 - - 177 613
Sénégal 13 060 604 9 600 458 3 084 434 375 712 - - 375 712
Gambie 1 790 903 1 033 889 567 341 171 987 17 686 - 189 673
Sierra Léone 6 622 480 4 485 243 1 991 610 145 627 - - 145 627
Mali 19 419 003 15 973 130 3 030 035 398 828 17 010 - 415 838
Tchad 14 340 547 11 158 002 2 663 421 489 087 30 036 - 519 123
Mauritanie 4 077 344 2 398 339 1 103 403 545 489 30 113 - 575 602
Burkina Faso 20 762 186 16 245 527 3 840 406 651 970 24 283 - 676 252
Niger 20 812 182 14 793 004 4 797 236 1 167 487 54 456 - 1 221 943
Nigéria 103 665 605 79 364 655 19 793 103 4 227 939 279 073 834 4 507 847
Région 287 846 670 227 959 402 50 904 511 8 540 706 452 657 834 8 994 197

16. Population estimation in phase 3 to 5
4,5million people
under crisis and worst
situation during October
- December 2018
8,9million people
under crisis and worst
situation during the lean
season 2019
4,1
1,3
1,9
1,5
CEDEAO UEMO CILSS G5-Sahel
Total Population (Million) under crisis to worst Food and
nutrition situation during October - December 2018
7,9
2,8
4,3
3,4
CEDEAO UEMO CILSS G5-Sahel
Total Population (Million) under crisis to worst Food and
nutrition situation during June - August 2019

17. 4,6
7,9
3,0
4,7
7,4 8,1
6,7
9,5
10,4
9,6
13,8
9,6
7,1
10,7
4,5
8,9
m
ars-14
juin-14
sept-14
déc-14
m
ars-15
juin-15
sept-15
déc-15
m
ars-16
juin-16
sept-16
déc-16
m
ars-17
juin-17
sept-17
déc-17
m
ars-18
juin-18
sept-18
déc-18
m
ars-19
juin-19
Population estimated in phase 3 to 5,
from March 2014 to June 2019,
regional situation
Sans le
Nigéria
Avec 8 Etats
du Nigéria
Avec 16-17 Etats du
Nigéria

18. 20
270
520
770
1 020
1 270
1 520
1 770
2 020
2 270
2 520
m
ars-14
juin-14
sept-14
déc-14
m
ars-15
juin-15
sept-15
déc-15
m
ars-16
juin-16
sept-16
déc-16
m
ars-17
juin-17
sept-17
déc-17
m
ars-18
juin-18
sept-18
déc-18
m
ars-19
juin-19
Burkina Faso Mali Mautitanie Niger Sénégal Tchad
Population estimated in phase 3 to 5, from March 2014 to
June 2019, in G-5-Sahel and Senegal
Niger
Burkina Faso
• Hazard : Flooding, animal disasters, rainfall deficit : Niger, Senegal, the Gambia and
Cabo Verde; Guinea Bissau
• Insecurity issue : in the Lac Chad basin : Niger-Nigeria-Chad), the Liptaco Gourma
zone : West-Niger, North Burkina Faso, South Mali, Northern and Centre Mali;
• Biomass deficit : Niger, Senegal,
• Population displacement du to the insecurity situation
• Commodities Prices instability : Ghana, Nigeria, Liberia, Sierra Leone et la Guinea
• Bad nutritional practices, persistence of U5 children disasters, lack of health
assistance, gap of food consumption (quantity and quality)
• Lack of incomes coming from the migrants system of cash transfer: Niger, Chad, Mali,
Senegal, the Gambia, Burkina Faso

19. 5. Majors difficulties
Limited capacity on data collection in this
particular countries;
– Cabo Verde
– Ghana
– Guinea
– Guinea Bissau
– Liberia
– Nigeria
– Togo
Limited technical capacity on CH process.

20. 6. RECOMMENDATIONS

21. The Governments and
partners
are recommended to
 Provide immediate and unconditional
Food assistance to 4,5 million (can move
to 8,9 million, lean season 2019) in
crisis and worst situation as well as
in :
 Interventions aimed at supporting the
resilience of 40,3 million people can
move to 50,9 million people (lean
season 2019) facing stressed food
insecurity
In all the
17
countries
Nigeria (North-
east States ABY)
Niger
Burkina Faso
Mauritania
Chad
Mali
Sierra Leone
The Gambia
Senegal

22. CILSS, Governments and
partners
• Strengthen the information system to collect
the data in : Cabo Verde, Ghana, Guinea,
Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Nigeria, Togo.
 Strengthen the capacity of national and
regional members and units of the Cadre
Harmonisé.

23. Many thanks for your attention!