Situation agropastorale_Traore_March.pptx

1. RPCA, April 2023 RESTRICTED MEETING 2022/2023 season final figures and the regional market situation by Sy Martial, TRAORE, CILSS

2. Plan • Background • 2022/2023 final cereal production figures • Final cereal food balance for 2022/2023 • 2022/2023 roots and tubers final production figures • 2022/2023 leguminous final production figures • Pastoral situation • Regional markets situation • Recommendations

3. Background • The final production figures for all the countries and all the main crops have been presented and validated during the regional PREGEC meeting, in Bamako, Mali (29 – 31 march, 2023); • Representing from all countries have taken part of the regional PREGEC meeting (Excepted Liberia) ; • 9 Countries have really conducted crop assessment by sample survey : Cabo-Verde; Benin, Burkina Faso, Gambia, Niger, Nigeria, Mali, Togo, Senegal, Chad; • 7 Countries have made an estimation based on season monitoring and historical data : Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Bissau-Guinea, Guinea; Ghana; Mauritania, Sierra Leone

4. 2022/2023 Final cereal production figures Provisionnal figure (Nov 2022) 76 389 133 tonnes 7,7% vs 2021 6,2% vs M5ANS 71 039 376 Hypothèses basses 78 148 183 Hypothèses Hautes Les hypothèses du PREGEC de septembre 77 231 244 tonnes +1.1%

5. 2022/2023 final cereal production figures Situation per cereal Crops Production Var21/22 VarMoy5A Maize 27 772 839 1,8% 5,6% Rice 22 299 800 4,2% 6,3% Sorghum 15 482 942 13,1% 6,3% Millet 10 861 025 26,9% 7,2% Fonio/Acha 668 908 0,7% 1,4% Wheat-Barley 144 729 22,4% 37,7% Total 77 231 244 7,7% 6,2%

6. 2022/2023 final cereal production figures Production per Country and zone Countries Productions Vs 2021/2022 Var Avg 5yrs Burkina Faso 5 179 059 11% 8% Cap Vert 4 178 1782% 1128% Gambie 107 669 3% 2% Guinée Bissau 300 809 7% 24% Mali 10 098 303 15% 3% Mauritanie 580 354 18% 42% Niger 5 923 162 69% 12% Sénégal 3 663 690 5% 20% Tchad 2 798 083 7% -1% SAHEL 28 655 308 20% 8%

7. 2022/2023 final cereal production figures Production per country and zone Countries Productions Vs 2021/2022 Var Avg 5yrs Bénin 2 297 373 0% 6% Côte d'Ivoire 3 065 235 4% -1% Guinée 4 110 258 2% 4% Ghana 5 645 317 8% 25% Liberia 287 942 13% 10% Nigeria 30 203 060 1% 3% Sierra Leone 1 526 900 -7% 10% Togo 1 439 851 3% 6% Costal countries 48 575 936 2% 5%

8. 2022/2023 final cereal production figures Production per zone Zones Productions Vs 2021/2022 Var Avg 5yrs UEMOA 31 967 482 17% 7% ECOWAS 73 852 806 8% 6% CILSS 39 568 025 14% 7% Eastern basin 41 221 679 8% 4% Central basin 25 427 765 10% 8% Western basin 10 581 801 3% 12%

9. 2022/2023 final cereal production figures Cereal production per head Countries Productions Vs 2021/2022 Var Avg 5yrs Burkina Faso 234 8,0% -1,0% Cap Vert 7 1761% 1091% Gambie 42 0,5% -6,9% Guinée Bissau 145 4,8% 15,6% Mali 470 11,4% -6,1% Mauritanie 118 14,9% 30,8% Niger 227 62,8% -1,2% Sénégal 207 2,4% 10,7% Tchad 160 3,6% -9,9% SAHEL 249 16% -2%

10. 2022/2023 final cereal production figures Cereal production per head Countries 2021/2022 (kg/head/year) Var 2020/2021 (%) Var 5 ys Average (%) Bénin 179 -3,2% -2,5% Côte d'Ivoire 110 1,0% -8,1% Guinée 296 -1,1% -4,4% Ghana 174 5,2% 17,4% Liberia 54 10,0% 2,2% Nigeria 139 -1,6% -5,0% Sierra Léone 183 -9,2% 3,4% Togo 166 0,1% -1,1% Costal Countries 149 -0,9% -2,4% All Zone 175 4,9% -2,0%

11. Regional Cereal balance Sheet reviewed (2022/2023) Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat (Mil, sorgho, maïs, fonio), others cereals Total 0 448 469 321 Population au 30/04/2023 1. Disponibilités/Availability 17 164 732 995 202 48 792 639 66 952 573 Production brute 2022/2023 22 299 800 144 729 54 786 715 77 231 244 Production disponible 14 219 366 125 168 45 805 885 60 150 419 Stocks initiaux (au 01/11/2022) 3 434 281 870 033 2 986 754 7 291 068 -Socks paysans 105 814 77 537 806 643 697 -Autres stocks 3 177 033 869 956 2 136 783 6 183 772 0 - 2. Beoins -Needs 25 399 722 9 839 971 42 283 058 77 522 751 Normes de consommation (kg/hbt/an) 57 22 94 173 Consommation humaine 21 974 718 9 031 934 39 136 508 70 143 160 Stocks finaux (au 31/10/2023) 3 425 004 808 037 3 146 550 7 379 591 -Socks paysans 2 938 398 770 685 3 028 202 6 737 285 -Autres stocks 586 606 42 352 119 348 748 306 3. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) brut 8 234 990 - 8 844 769 - 6 509 581 10 570 178 - 0 4. Solde import/export 10 406 684 9 857 955 876 331 21 140 970 Importations commerciales (2022/2023) 10 549 640 10 267 455 1 284 961 22 102 056 + Commerçants privés 9 195 863 10 091 410 874 647 20 161 920 + Autres importations 1 347 777 176 045 410 314 1 934 136 Aides alimentaires 6 000 - - 6 000 Exportations prévues 142 956 409 500 408 630 961 086 5. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) net 2 171 694 1 013 185 7 385 912 10 570 791 0 6. Disponibilité apparente/HBT(kg) 61 24 111 196 Population : 449,4 M Availability : 66,9 M Total Needs : 77,5 M Gross differenrce : -10,5 M Diff after import/export :21,1 M

12. Regional Cereal balance Sheet Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat (Mil, sorgho, maïs, fonio), others cereals Total Burkina Faso 136 355 27 648 439 514 603 516 Cap Vert (1 776) (6 763) (54 664) (63 204) Gambie 229 211 20 207 (160 429) 88 990 Guinée Bissau (5 955) 10 738 (13 296) (8 512) Mali 107 197 138 298 2 233 780 2 479 275 Mauritanie (19 571) 310 840 (10 150) 281 119 Niger 484 942 (121 061) 514 292 878 173 Sénégal 990 295 218 918 484 798 1 694 012 Tchad 86 826 (114 049) (245 750) (272 973) SAHEL 2 007 524 484 775 3 188 096 5 680 395 Bénin 739 804 (57 213) 225 766 908 357 Côte d'Ivoire 1 664 390 308 843 748 667 2 721 900 Guinée 136 427 1 888 883 064 1 021 379 Ghana 196 570 (44 615) 527 787 679 742 Liberia 200 751 (74 400) 2 000 128 351 Nigeria (3 488 080) 406 768 1 933 481 (1 147 831) Sierra Leone 466 622 14 293 (349 527) 131 388 Togo 247 686 (27 154) 226 579 447 111 Pays Côtiers 164 169 528 410 4 197 817 4 890 396 TOTAL 2 171 694 1 013 185 7 385 912 10 570 791 Zone UEMOA 4 364 714 499 017 4 860 100 9 723 831 Zone CEDEAO 2 104 439 816 394 7 641 812 10 562 645 CILSS 4 795 831 711 139 5 272 172 10 779 142 Bassin est ( 2 176 507) 114 444 2 427 789 365 726 Bassin centre 2 352 198 403 020 4 176 326 6 931 544 Bassin ouest 1 996 003 495 721 781 798 3 273 521 Deficit, Sahelian Countries • Cabo Verde • Gambia • Tchad Deficit, Costal Countries • Nigeria

13. Roots and Tubers production final figure (2022/2023) Crops Production Var2021/2022 VarMoy5A Cassava 104 779 603 -0,6% 5,3% Yam 87 105 351 7,0% 15,0% Sweet Potato 6 826 152 4,6% 14,7% Patoto 2 724 821 11,8% 21,6% Taro/Cocoyam 10 281 137 2,1% 5,8% 211 717 063 tonnes; 3% VS 2021/2022 and 10% vs Ag5ys

14. Leguminous and oil seeds final production figure (2022/2023) Crops Production Var2021/2022 VarMoy5A G/Nut 10 620 137 3,1% 5,1% Cotton 2 864 520 -12,1% -1% Cow pea 9 279 871 21,4% 15,7% Sesame 1 208 213 6,3% 3,6% Soja bean 2 161 197 8,3% 31,9% Wandzou 220 136 18,8% 9,5%

15. Other productions (2022/2023) Crops Production Var2021/2022 VarMoy5A Cacao 3 453 761 2,3% 0,1% Coffee 341 235 9,9% 15,3% Rubber 1 595 852 16,1% 48,7% Cashew nut 1 861 048 16,1% 48,7% Palm Oil 7 727 986 11,1% 3,3% Plantain 14 387 724 -1,1% 17,2%

16. Pastoral situation  Good to average vegetation cover but with gradual reduction of pasture and drying up of waterbodies;  Deterioration in animal body condition but overall good to fair;  Limited transhumance movements resulting in high concentrations of livestock;  Forced departures in the 3 borders region, due to insecurity with attacks on people and kidnapping of herds.

17. Regional markets situations Global cereal production down by 7% (Vs 2022) +20% for Sahelian countries;  high demand A relatively lower than usual level of cereal carryover stocks; The persistence of inflation in several countries in the region, which is currently spreading to all countries--> Regional 18% ; Food 22% A deteriorating security situation that has resulted in over 7,5 million IDPs in the region vs 6M, 2022 Civil insecurity zones ; Liptako-Gourma, Lac Tchad zone, North Central and North Western Nigeria, North West and South West Cameroon An already very difficult food and nutrition situation: 42,5 million in crisis (june-aug 23, CH) An exacerbation of road congestion; Impact of Ukraine crisis and Covid 19 High cost of transportation and fuel 1% 6% 7% 5% 14% 53% 8% 10% 8% 6% 9% 1% 22% 11% 38% 9% 5% -2% 8% 20% 6% 18% 59% 13% -3% 14% 16% 1% 24% 14% 48% 34% 6% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% BE BF CV CI GM GH GN GB LI ML MR NE NG SN SL TD TG Lastest annual inflations rates by country Global inflation rate Food inflation rate Source: trading economics 18% 22% 206% 133% 100% 39% 39% 33% 33% 29% 28% 25% 22% 3% 210% 133% 172% 25% 49% 33% 7% 47% 15% 33% 15% 33% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% GH SL NG BF TG GN CI ML SN BE TD CV Fuel prices variations VS Last year

18. Regional markets situations Regional markets functioning Good market functioning in all markets except those in areas of civil insecurity; Supply and demand • Good production for in all the 3 basines for the majorty of crops • Lower carry-over stocks • Low supply compare to normal situation and very expensive price • Lot of retrictions of crossbroder flows Demand is very high: 1. Household demande 2. Animal industries 3. Breweries demand

19. Regional markets situations Cereal price Overall increase in cereal prices (25 : 40%), Important increase vs November 22 for all the crops 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Consummer prices variation compare to 5 years average for the main cereals per country 10% Millet 33% Sor. 13% Rice im. 32% Wheat 27% Rice im. 41% Maize 73% Rice im. 56% Maize 59% Sor. 16% Maize 54% Maize 26% Rice im. 43% Maize 48% Maize 50% Sor. 33% Rice Im. 179% Maize 13% Rice im. 11% Rice im. 46% Rice im. 132% Rice im. 19% Rice im. 22% Rice im. Gambia Princpal céreal 2nd Cereal Legend Sources des données : SIMs nationaux, WFP, Fews Net Togo Benin Cereal price increases are even more pronounced in Ghana (+100%), Sierra Leone (+100%), Nigeria (+50%) and Burkina Faso (+50%), particularly in insecure areas. In the example of the town of Djibo (3 borders area in Burkina Faso) where the price of millet reached 1491 FCFA/kg (2.5 euro) in January 2023. The last supply of millet fell by 585 FCFA (0.89 euro) in March 2023.

20. Regional markets situations Livestock prices variations : Jan - Feb vs average 5years -10% 21% 8% 13% 50% 18% 99% -25% 41% 26% 39% 16% 74% 32% 75% -11% 68% 21% 14% 11% 80% 20% 26% 16% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% BF GN ML NE SN TD NG BF GN ML MR NE NG SN TD BF GN ML NE MR NG SN TD NE Cattle Sheep Goat Camel Average small ruminant/cereal TOT remain considerably below average, especially in Mopti and Dori affected by insecurity Term of Trade (ToT) Price generally increase compare to average, but….

21. Recommendations To States :  Strengthen the information watch on crop pests (armyworms, locusts, jassids, etc.)  Maintain a permanent watch on the regional market in order to detect signs of malfunctioning To ECOWAS, CILSS and WAEMU  Organise a high-level inter-IGO consultation to exchange views on barriers to food trade in the regional space.  Supporting the efforts of governments in the establishment of functional food and nutrition security and livelihoods information systems in the Gulf of Guinea countries. To technical and financial partners :  Support States in the implementation of emergency and resilience interventions and national response plans for identified vulnerable populations;  Continue dialogue with coastal countries to facilitate cross-border livestock mobility;

22. Many thanks for your attention!

Situation agropastorale_Traore_March.pptx

Situation agropastorale_Traore_March.pptx

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Situation agropastorale_Traore_March.pptx