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1
Small, smart, many
versus
few and bespoke
Dr. T. X. Hammes
Institute for National Strategic Studies
National Defense Uni...
America according to
the World
2
Even bigger
idiots
Subject of talk
Tasked to with what West will use
But drones are also the threat
 High end to super empowered small
group...
Emerging Threats
SLIDE 5
Air and sea defense
Cyber and space
SLDIE 6 - Small smart and many – vs
few and exquisite
Can the...
5
6
77
Situation today
Extremely rapid technological change
 Many related fields
 Materials science
 Energetics
 Robotics
...
88
1914-1939
Metallurgy
Power systems –
 Steam turbines
 Internal combustion engines
Electronics - Radio/radar
Weaponry
99
Post WWI Naval
SLIDE 10
USN focuses on battleships
 Dominant form of naval system
 Post-WWI commissioned 18, building...
1914 - 1939
10
Changing today
Nano – materials, explosives, batteries -12
Drones – range, payload, materials -13
Artificial intelligence ...
Nano-energetics
12
SLIDE 7
13
For sale
today
AI/Autonomous Drones
1414
AI - Autonomy
What think of – what is
RANGE – Transatlantic 1998 composite
PAYLOAD – ounces to hundreds of #
COST - $300 t...
3D: Capability + Volume
16
113 materials –
100 times faster - SLIDE
IED that hunts you
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature
=player_embedded&v=QRrSriR5b6s
17
Forest Racing –
Star Wars is here?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwL
0t5kPf6E
Forest racing drones 1:10 to 2:15
18
19
--Ukranian drones support militia
--Funded by mothers
--Flown by volunteers
3D Printed, Autonomous
Drone
00 – 0:30
20
Slocum Glider
2121
Implications
Power projection using conventional
platforms becomes much more difficult
 Does tactical defense gain an edg...
Everyone has them –
and they are evolving
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hM
R86-6J7Y 10:00 to 10:45
23
Airpower’s role
Hold high ground
Defend the homeland
Provide strike
 Support joint/combined force
 Manage unsolvable pro...
2525
Contact Information
txhammes1@gmail.com
Backup slides
Additional videos of drones
26
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHo
7x2Vcjjg Drone Warfare for the Poor
2:00 to
27
http://www.wired.com/2014/09/military-
grade-drone-can-printed-anywhere/
1:45
$2500, off the shelf
40 minutes, autonomous ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hM
R86-6J7Y 10:00 to 10:45 Drones cost
approaches zero
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zw...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSY
QyAljYOY
Autonomous drone with LIDAR
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU
pmPUcnuBY&feat...
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Colonel (Retd) Thomas X Hammes USMC

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Colonel (Retd) Thomas X Hammes USMC's presentation at the RAF Air Power Conference 2015

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Colonel (Retd) Thomas X Hammes USMC

  1. 1. 1 Small, smart, many versus few and bespoke Dr. T. X. Hammes Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University
  2. 2. America according to the World 2 Even bigger idiots
  3. 3. Subject of talk Tasked to with what West will use But drones are also the threat  High end to super empowered small groups and individuals 3
  4. 4. Emerging Threats SLIDE 5 Air and sea defense Cyber and space SLDIE 6 - Small smart and many – vs few and exquisite Can they defeat us by attacking bases, ships, supplies, individual vehicles Driven by technology convergence 4
  5. 5. 5
  6. 6. 6
  7. 7. 77 Situation today Extremely rapid technological change  Many related fields  Materials science  Energetics  Robotics  Artificial Intelligence  3d Printing Unprecedented?
  8. 8. 88 1914-1939 Metallurgy Power systems –  Steam turbines  Internal combustion engines Electronics - Radio/radar Weaponry
  9. 9. 99 Post WWI Naval SLIDE 10 USN focuses on battleships  Dominant form of naval system  Post-WWI commissioned 18, building 2  Primary interwar investment of USN Commercial development in aircraft  Rapid advancement in capabilities  Minimal USN investment – 5 CVs, 3 converted ships Little on submarines
  10. 10. 1914 - 1939 10
  11. 11. Changing today Nano – materials, explosives, batteries -12 Drones – range, payload, materials -13 Artificial intelligence – 3D Printing - SLIDE 12 11
  12. 12. Nano-energetics 12 SLIDE 7
  13. 13. 13 For sale today
  14. 14. AI/Autonomous Drones 1414
  15. 15. AI - Autonomy What think of – what is RANGE – Transatlantic 1998 composite PAYLOAD – ounces to hundreds of # COST - $300 to billion DIY projects  Find red objects--Follow a person’s face Amazon project  20 lbs, 100 miles  Non-GPS Swiss post office 15
  16. 16. 3D: Capability + Volume 16 113 materials – 100 times faster - SLIDE
  17. 17. IED that hunts you https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature =player_embedded&v=QRrSriR5b6s 17
  18. 18. Forest Racing – Star Wars is here? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwL 0t5kPf6E Forest racing drones 1:10 to 2:15 18
  19. 19. 19 --Ukranian drones support militia --Funded by mothers --Flown by volunteers
  20. 20. 3D Printed, Autonomous Drone 00 – 0:30 20
  21. 21. Slocum Glider 2121
  22. 22. Implications Power projection using conventional platforms becomes much more difficult  Does tactical defense gain an edge?  APOE/APODs vulnerable?  Major bases vulnerable? Unconventional attackers only “bring the detonator?” National mobilization of industry? 22
  23. 23. Everyone has them – and they are evolving https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hM R86-6J7Y 10:00 to 10:45 23
  24. 24. Airpower’s role Hold high ground Defend the homeland Provide strike  Support joint/combined force  Manage unsolvable problems 24
  25. 25. 2525 Contact Information txhammes1@gmail.com
  26. 26. Backup slides Additional videos of drones 26
  27. 27. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHo 7x2Vcjjg Drone Warfare for the Poor 2:00 to 27
  28. 28. http://www.wired.com/2014/09/military- grade-drone-can-printed-anywhere/ 1:45 $2500, off the shelf 40 minutes, autonomous (android phone) 1.5 lbs New printing 25 times faster. 28
  29. 29. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hM R86-6J7Y 10:00 to 10:45 Drones cost approaches zero https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwL 0t5kPf6E Forest racing drones 2:45 to 3:15 29
  30. 30. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSY QyAljYOY Autonomous drone with LIDAR https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU pmPUcnuBY&feature=youtu.be&autopl ay=1 Drone with immersion goggles 30

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