HERD Less is more

1. Main
Stage,
November
3,
2011
HERD
Less is more
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy
A
Presenta*on
from
the
Fes*val
of
NewMR
Main
Stage
–
November
3,
2011

2. HERD
Less is more
Source: Clark Little
Mark Earls AKA @herdmeister
Festival of New MR November 2011
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

3. q. are your markets shaped by
independent or social choice?
...by what goes on between their
ears or between them?
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)"

4. ...it s self-evident that
behaviour is shaped
by what goes on
between our ears
Phil Barden, debate in Contagious
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)"

5. a map built on
data patterns
social learning
awfully nice chaps
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

6. the missing piece of the jigsaw
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

7. 77
less = more

8. market-level patterns reveal what
lies beneath (not vice-versa)
traditional research
insight here
we start
here
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

9. 9
...Independent Choice?
I discover and buy a product independently of my peers. Its
superiority to other options and what I m already using is
immediately clear.
...Copying others?
I discover and buy a product through my peers.The product
may not be clearly superior. Its social value may be greater.
is your market shaped by...
or
9
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

10. 1010
short-tail distribution
long-tail distribution
Very few items account for
most of the market volume
Large number of items have
decent share of market volume
compare and contrast
Independent
Copying
Conversely, few
have a very low share
Many items in tail
with small share
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

11. 11
a very simple way to plot markets
rapid turnover of popularity
short-tail distribution
Independent
long-tail distribution
short-tail distribution
Copying
Popular music downloads
Spirits
Charitable giving
Deodorants
Car Insurance
11
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

12. 12
rapid turnover of popularity
short-tail distribution
Independent
long-tail distribution
short-tail distribution
Copying
Popular music
downloads
Charitable giving
Car Insurance
Spirits
Deodorants
12
a very simple way to plot markets
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

13. 13
Copying
Experts
Copying
Peers
Guesswork
Considered
choice
Independent
Adapted from Bentley Earls O Brien
I ll have what she s having MIT Press 2011
Few choices
Many
choices
Copying

14. 14
Few choices
Many choices
CopyingIndependent
31
popular music
downloads
charitable giving
auto Insurance
deodorants
Considered
choice

15. 15
Few choices
Many choices
CopyingIndependent
31
plotting multiple
markets/regions

16. 16
Few choices
Many choices
CopyingIndependent
31
Copying
Experts
Copying
Peers
Considered
choice
Guesswork
what KIND of thing
are you dealing with?

17. 17
. . . In that Empire, the Art of Cartography attained such Perfection
that the map of a single Province occupied the entirety of a City, and
the map of the Empire, the entirety of a Province.
In time, those Unconscionable Maps no longer satisfied, and the
Cartographers Guilds struck a Map of the Empire whose size was that
of the Empire, and which coincided point for point with it.
The following Generations, who were not so fond of the Study of
Cartography as their Forebears had been, saw that that vast Map was
Useless, and not without some Pitilessness was it, that they delivered it
up to the Inclemencies of Sun and Winters. In the Deserts of the West,
still today, there are Tattered Ruins of that Map, inhabited by Animals
and Beggars; in all the Land there is no other Relic of the Disciplines of
Geography
On Exactitude in Science [JL Borges]
Source: Pedro Meyer
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

18. 18
Few choices
Many choices
CopyingIndependent
31 18
Yes*
Maybe
No
No
where is traditional
research
appropriate?

19. less really is more
Source: Clark Little

20. 20
§
31Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

21. Q & A
Mark Earls
HERD Consultancy
Ray Poynter
Vision Critical
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy, UK
Festival of NewMR 2011 - Session 4 Schedule: 10:30am – 12:30pm (GMT)

22. Main
Stage,
November
3,
2011
HERD
Less is more
Mark Earls, HERD Consultancy
A
Presenta*on
from
the
Fes*val
of
NewMR
Main
Stage
–
November
3,
2011