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Stephen Needel - Altered Realities - 2016
1. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
23
Years
of
Virtual
Reality
Dr.
Stephen
Needel
Advanced
Simula7on
June
2016
We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
2. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
Advanced
Simula7ons
• 1993
–
Simula7on
Services
-‐
Beginning
of
VR
for
MR
– SoOware
developed
by
Dr.
Raymond
Burke
• 2003
–
Formed
Advanced
Simula7ons
• Over
450
separate
projects
tes7ng
thousands
of
varia7ons
– Packaging
– Pricing
– Promo7ons
– Shelf
Layouts
– Shelf
Assortments
– New
Products
3. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
3
Things
To
Know
Virtual
Reality
works
well
for
marke7ng
research
–
most
of
the
7me
Thing 1
Three
things
to
know
about
Virtual
Reality
4. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
What
Works
–
And
What
Doesn’t
– Any
CPG/FMCG
product
– Expensive/luxury
goods
(needs
special
instruc7ons)
– Occasion-‐specific
products
(again,
special
instruc7ons)
PRODUCTS
5. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
What
Works
–
And
What
Doesn’t
– Any
CPG/FMCG
product
– Expensive/luxury
goods
(needs
special
instruc7ons)
– Occasion-‐specific
products
(again,
special
instruc7ons)
PRODUCTS
APPLICATIONS
– Packaging
– Pricing
– Promo7ons
– New
Products
– Shelf
Assort/Layout
– Subs7tu7on
Behavior
6. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
What
Works
–
And
What
Doesn’t
– Any
CPG/FMCG
product
– Expensive/luxury
goods
(needs
special
instruc7ons)
– Occasion-‐specific
products
(again,
special
instruc7ons)
PRODUCTS
APPLICATIONS
– Packaging
– Pricing
– Promo7ons
– New
Products
– Shelf
Assort/Layout
– Subs7tu7on
Behavior
– Any
country
that
has
a
version
in
Windows
– Anywhere
you
can
put
a
PC
and
a
shopper
COUNTRIES
7. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
What
Works
–
And
What
Doesn’t
PRODUCTS
APPLICATIONS
COUNTRIES
– Anything
requiring
taste,
smell,
or
touch
– A
product
requiring
interac7on
(e.g.
phones)
– Services
– Adver7sing
(long-‐term
effects)
– Category
growth
driven
by
new
shoppers
– Brand
growth
driven
by
increased
purchase
frequency
– Countries
where
internet
is
sporadic
– Countries
where
central
loca7on
is
not
prac7cal
8. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
3
Things
To
Know
• Virtual
Reality
works
well
for
marke7ng
research
–
most
of
the
7me
• The
data
is
different
from
what
you
are
used
to
Thing 2
Three
things
to
know
about
Virtual
Reality
9. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
784
251
101
19 7
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 1 2 3 4+
TEST BRAND - NUMBER OF UNITS PURCHASED
The
Data
is
Different
Most
shoppers
in
the
sample
are
not
going
to
buy
the
test
brand
– Implica7ons
for
test
design
10. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
The
Data
is
Different
Most
shoppers
in
the
sample
are
not
going
to
buy
the
test
brand
– Want
at
least
30
expected
test
brand
buyers
• Run
big
samples
• Constrain
sample
by
only
using
category
buyers,
not
rep
sample
• Constrain
the
category-‐buying
sample
(e.g.
brand
non-‐rejectors)
• Augment
for
test
brand
users
11. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
The
Data
is
Different
Results
are
rarely
significant
at
the
95%
confidence
level
– Shopping
data
is
not
normally
distributed
• Gamma
or
NBD
• Reduces
sta7s7cal
sensi7vity
• Transforms
don’t
help
– Test
effects
are
oOen
not
large
–
and
not
expected
to
be
– Look
for
pa)erns
of
shopping
change
more
than
sta3s3cal
significance
12. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
45%
55%
NO SALES
DIFFERENCE
SALES
DIFFERENCE
61%
39%
INCONSISTENT
CONSISTENT
The
Data
is
Different
What
they
say
is
not
always
what
they
do
– VR
is
different
from
surveys
– Don’t
be
surprised
–
it’s
why
you
use
VR
SIMULATION
RESULTS
POST-‐SHOPPING
SURVEY
13. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
3
Things
To
Know
• Virtual
Reality
works
well
for
marke7ng
research
–
most
of
the
7me
• The
data
is
different
from
what
you
are
used
to
• It’s
not
about
the
technology
Thing 3
Three
things
to
know
about
Virtual
Reality
14. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
It’s
Not
The
Technology
It’s
about
whether
it
validates
– For
mul7ple
categories
– For
the
system
you
are
buying
– For
two
basic
ques7ons:
• Do
shoppers
buy
like
they
normally
buy
using
this
system?
• Do
shopper
respond
to
marke7ng
s7muli
like
they
normally
do?
15. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
It’s
Not
The
Technology
It’s
about
crea7ng
the
right
psychological
environment
– No
advantage
to
store
walk-‐throughs:
− Excep7ons
− Stop-‐ability
of
end-‐aisle
displays
− Eye-‐tracking
of
signage
− Neither
is
a
good
use
of
VR
16. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
It’s
Not
The
Technology
It’s
about
leing
them
shop
like
they’d
normally
shop
– Never
sejle
for
2D
images
– Otherwise,
just
show
shoppers
pictures
–
why
pay
for
VR?
– Shoppers
use
informa7on
on
sides
and
backs
• Why
take
that
away?
• Why
risk
altering
behavior?
17. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
It’s
Not
The
Technology
It’s
about
hiring
a
supplier
who
understands:
– The
boundaries
of
the
technology
– Experimental
design
– How
the
research
will
be
used
– What
your
business
issues
are
– How
to
turn
the
data
into
ac7on
18. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
3
Things
To
Know
• Virtual
Reality
works
well
for
marke7ng
research
–
most
of
the
7me
• The
data
is
different
from
what
you
are
used
to
• It’s
not
about
the
technology
3things
19. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
Thank
You!
For
more
informa7on,
please
contact:
Dr.
Stephen
Needel
Advanced
Simula7ons
drsteveasl@gmail.com
+1-‐404-‐944-‐0248
www.advancedsimula7ons.com
20. We’ve
Learned
A
Few
Things
–
Altered
Reali7es
Dr.
Stephen
Needel,
Advanced
Simula6ons,
2016
Q
&
A
Ray
Poynter
The
Future
Place
Dr.
Stephen
Needel
Advanced
Simula6ons