Re-booting Public Transport in the Philippines as the country transitions from the longest lockdown in the world caused by the pandemic

1. 18/06/2020
1
Re-booting Public Transport:
From Where to New What?
Rene S. Santiago
BSCE, M.Eng’g
Mobility (ecq)  0 (for PT)
After ECQ: 0 < Mobility <1
PICE 2nd Webinar Lecture Series
8-June 2020
Do we restore
to System
State before
ECQ?
Execute overdue
reforms/changes
Infra changes:
bike lane/
pedestrian/
busway
Re-start to
Year 1980?
Restore to old,
without the
BADs?
Remake our
transport per
Green/Sustainable
Paradigm
Analogy: re-booting Windows 10
1
2

2. 18/06/2020
2
My Talks is divided into 3
Situation
before Covid
Changes that
will linger
What Might
Become
  
The Way We Were
(before Covid) Air transport was booming, major airports
congested
Maritime transport, coasting on smooth seas
Severe congestion in urban transport
Program to modernize jeepneys inching
slowly
B-B-B program, strongly trumpeted but on
slow roll
Change in (Transport) laws being forged in
the halls of Congress
Part 1 – Situation before ECQ
3
4

3. 18/06/2020
3
Key characteristics of PT before ECQ
All transport providers (airlines, shipping, buses, jeepneys, vans, taxis,
tricycles) are owned, operated, and maintained by private entities
 Government subsidy is zero, or very little (fuel discounts, opaque taxation)
Entry (supply) is controlled by government, state-prescribed tariff
• Routes driven by private operators, or applicants
• Intrinsically de-regulated regime pretending to be heavily-regulated or rational (able to match
supply vs demand)
• Low fare is the primary goal of regulator
Service providers on land are fragmented, dominated by small Mom &
Pop operators. Few big operators, only in buses
• Contracted labor thru a mis-named ‘boundary’ system
• Two exogenous factors driving viability: fuel cost and road traffic
Part 1: Situation before Covid
The Evil
Disruptor
of 1st
Q2020
“New Normal”
5
6

4. 18/06/2020
4
Turbulence for Air transport (& Tourism)
Part 2: Changes that will linger
 PAL was already in trouble, before ECQ.
Will need rescue package, to keep flying
 Demand has cratered, domestic &
international, unlikely to regain lost
grounds
 Cancellation of PPP projects (Bulacan,
Sangley, Mactan 2nd runway, NAIA
upgrade/rehab)
 Distancing rules to push load factors below
what is profitable
 Spoilers: LGUs bans on air travel
 Fewer flights, fewer destinations
New Normal for air travel
Part 2 – Changes that will linger
Who will pay for the empty seats?
7
8

5. 18/06/2020
5
2nd Hit on B-B-B Infra Program
Flawed, at Launching
(1stQ2017)
36 major projects vs 75
on NEDA’s Flagship
Mid-course
Corrections (Nov2019)
•More congruent w/
NEDA’s Flagship
•Appointment of Infra
Czar
Part 2 – Changes that will linger
0.775T
1.31
2017 to 2019:
4.87% vs 6.17%
9
10

6. 18/06/2020
6
Silver Linings: Winners of Pandemic
Part 2 – Changes that will linger
Lifeline
during
ECQ
Bright prospects
after GCQ
Career
move for
(displaced
PUJ
Drivers?
Another Winner: WFH & Remote Learning
Part 2 – Changes that will linger
Tele-working and Tele-
education will remain, though
not @100%
11
12

7. 18/06/2020
7
Coming soon: Add’l Screenings @ Terminals
Part 2 – Changes that will linger
Balik Probinsiya Program (vs Covid?)
Is this for real, or another political shibboleths?
Part 2 – Changes that will linger
INTENTION
Move 1 million
(poor) residents of
NCR back to the
provinces
• Disperse dev’ts
• Congested city =
Higher Covid19
• Better livelihood
REALITY CHECK
Since 1970s,
government has
promoted regional
growth dispersal &
failed
Infrastructure
investments of gov’t
(e.g.,B-B-B) are
skewed towards
NCR, Regions 3 & 4
13
14

8. 18/06/2020
8
The 3rd Part . . .
Situation
before Covid
Changes that
Will Linger
What might
Become
  
Spatial distancing on Jeepneys
• During GCQ? How Long?
Part 3 – What Might Become
 New jeepneys
to be allowed
by 22 June
 Without fare
adjustments,
drivers will lose
@50% limit
 E-payment
required by
LTFRB
 40% of daily
trips in NCR
 Main PT mode in
Cebu, Davao,
other secondary
cities
 GCQ, mGCQ,
meaningless
unless PUJ
allowed to re-
open
Most risky in spreading virus with Pax Face-to-Face < 1.0 meter apart
15
16

9. 18/06/2020
9
Part 3 – What Might Become
New seating
arrangements on
Buses?
 50% limit was imposed on
buses (about 1sqm
space/pax)
 Health protocols easier to
enforce at terminals
(provincial & P2P buses),
but difficult on intra-urban
buses
 Without fare adjustments,
50% would not be viable
Supply of buses will be low, at GCQ opening. And many would cut back, due to
reduced income; With fewer units, passengers would compete for available slots
Part 3 – What Might Become
17
18

10. 18/06/2020
10
Spatial distancing on-board LRT/MRT
Before ECQ During GCQ? How Long?
1,628 pax/train 163 pax/train
Why 10% on LRT2, 12.5% on LRT1,13% on LRT3, 20% on PNR ?
Part 3 – What Might Become
Is it time for Pasig Ferry to shine?
Part 3 – What Might Become
19
20

11. 18/06/2020
11
Ro-Ro: On same boat as other modes
Part 3 – The Unclear
• A success story in
GMA’s time (nautical
highway)
• Ignored, from 2010 to
2020
• A ‘leper’ to some
LGUs, after Covid
Dedicated Bike Lanes . . . To solve lack of PT?
PROS CONS
• Previous attempts
failed, why would this
be any different?
• Bike-culture absent
among Filipinos
• Unlikely to increase
pax throughput on
major roads
• Does not pay RUC
Advocates often mistake what they LIKE with what the Public NEEDS
Part 3 – What May Become
• Low-cost, no carbon
emission
• Hallmark of
Sustainable Urban
Transport movement
• Can be put in-place
immediately
• Quick answer to PT
lack
21
22

12. 18/06/2020
12
Policy shift in Pricing of Transport Services
Low Value
@High prices High Value
@Low
prices
NO SUCH THING AS A
FREE LUNCH
• Extra cost for ‘viral
prevention’ measures
• Lost revenues for
smaller number of Pax
• Reforming PT requires
value-for-money
services
Part 3 –What May Become
Overdue Reforms . . . Now or Later?
Amendment to the Public Service Act that sets the regulatory
framework for public transport
Bill on Transport Network Companies & Vehicles (Grab, et.al)
Bill on MC-for-Hire (Angkas, et.al)
Devolve PT regulation of LTFRB to cities/LGUs?
Re-structuring of buses and jeepney sectors (amalgamation)
Part 3 – What May Become
23
24

13. 18/06/2020
13
How long will Covid-19 terrorize us?
Part 3 – What May Become
Source:InquirerNews(03-Jun2020)
Source: ABS-CBN News (01-Jun2020)
Source: Inquirer News (01-Jun2020)
Scenes that may linger until end
2020
Part 3 – What May become
25
26

14. 18/06/2020
14
PT Shortage
(2H 2020)
More bicycles?
More
Motorcycles?
More CARs?
Scenarios for next
6 months?
Do we have a Moses to bring us to the promised land ?
• EDSA-Makati in 5 minutes by
December?
• Solve MMnl traffic in 2 years,
or I resign
• Solve MV Plates shortage, in
3 months
• LRT2 east extension
operational by end-2019
• Cebu BRT operational by Nov
2019
Part 3 – The Unclear
27
28

15. 18/06/2020
15
With apologies to Steve Jobs
Plan details are sketchy
- Winging or Improvisation
29
30

16. 18/06/2020
16
EDSA Bus Experiment vs Route Restructuring
LTFRB Circular #019 (14-
May)
• EDSA-Centric Route
Structure
• Edsa Carousel = 550
units (Monumento –
PITX)
• South-2-PITX = 772 units
Put into service on EDSA median are 90 buses
contracted by DoTr (Bus Augmentation to
MRT3). 17-km vs 28 km in LTFRB Circular
Where are the Pax Interchange Facilities?
20+ Bus Shelters on EDSA curb-
sides would be abandoned
31
32

17. 18/06/2020
17
PT Service is about
better commuting
experience
Convenient Transfers, from
one route to another (i.e.,
located nearest to occurrence
of transfers)
Ideal are off-road bus stops,
that provide shelters from the
elements, e.g., SM Busbays
EDSA Carousel is not as island
unto itself, it is part of the
entire transport network
Location for Boarding/Alighting
Traffic conflicts: unsafe, limit busway headway
Several at-grade
conflicts, from
North to South
endings of EDSA
Carousel:
Will determine
Bus Headways
(& Capacity)
R1, Taft Ave, Ayala Ave
Gil Puyat Ave, Ortigas
Ave, , North Ave
Roosevelt, Monumento
33
34

18. 18/06/2020
18
Ultimate Test: Will it increase capacity?
Downgraded C4 (from HSH to LSH)
Will reduce overall capacity of EDSA
THEORY
Dedicated
busways raises
bus productivity,
attracts more
riders, and
increase overall
throughput
(pax/lane/hr) on
roadways
REALITY
Bus productivity is a
function of
headways. With at-
grade intersections &
left-turn flyovers,
expect headway ≥
2minutes.
Throughput
~3,600pphpd
(vs 10,000+ pphpd
before)
renesan@outlook.ph
35
36