1.
Public Transportation System,
Post Covid-19
Anticipating (or Re-Imagining) the Future
of Public Transport Beyond 2021
5th Ergonomics Convention
UP Industrial Engineering Club
29-January 2021
Rene S. Santiago
President/Bellwether Advisory Inc

2.
Outline of Presentation
1. Definition on what is PT?
2. Rear view mirror: The Way We Were
3. The Big Change of 2020
 What has it wrought?
 What government is doing?
4. Public Transport Beyond 2021
 Donut Approach, in lieu of crystal ball gazing
5. Questions
1

3.
1
Introduction
In Developed
Countries:
Public Transportation is
equated with buses and
rail transit (LRT, HRT,
Monorail, HSR).
In the PHILIPPINES:
Public Transportation
refers to all transport
modes for-hire,
available to the general
public, who pays for the
service. Includes MCs,
tricycles, taxis,
jeepneys, vans-for-hire,
buses, LRT, PNR, MRT,
shipping lines, airlines
1

4.
Public Transport b4 WW2
“You have to
look at the past
to understand
the present”
– Carl Sagan
“If you want to
know the future,
look at the past”
- Albert Einstein
2

5.
From the Wreckage . . . emerged
Left-over US Army Jeeps
were converted into Auto
Calesas; that grew into
the Jeepneys of today
Similar mode of public transport (referred to as paratransit, by Western eyes)
emerged in other developing countries, with their own local names

6.
A mode virtually unchanged in 70+ years
Jeepney 1950s Jeepney 1970s
Jeepney 2020
Unwittingly, Government was (is) the main culprit for
the TIME WARP
2

7.
Buses . . . on the other hand
1950-60s (Tartanilla) 1970 -90s (Love Bus)
From Ergonomic standpoint: Buses became more accommodating to
taller Filipinos. Egress/Ingress More Efficient. More comfortable ride.
Major change triggered by a government adoption of Bus Standards
in late 1970s
2
Buses 2000s - present

8.
State of PT by 2019
 All transport providers (airlines, shipping, buses, jeepneys, vans, taxis,
tricycles) are owned, operated, and maintained by private entities
 Government subsidy is zero, or very little (fuel discounts, opaque taxation)
 Public sector is still heavily involved in railways
 Entry (supply) is controlled by government, state-prescribed tariff
 Routes driven by private operators, or applicants
 Intrinsically de-regulated regime pretending to be heavily-regulated or rational (able
to match supply vs demand)
 Low fare is the primary goal of regulator
 Service providers on land are fragmented, dominated by small Mom & Pop
operators. Few big operators, only in buses
 Contracted labor thru a mis-named ‘boundary’ system
 Two exogenous factors driving viability: fuel cost and road traffic
 Tricycles is the dominant mode in majority of 1,600+ towns in the country
 It blossoms after 1990s, when franchising got devolved under the Local
Government Code
2

9.

PT in Time of Covid
Demand & Supply
Suppressed
 Many employees
constrained to WFH
 ALL schools ordered
close
 PT suspended
operations, re-starts
rationed

10.
Constraint in Transport Supply
Double
whammy
@50%
capacity limit +
# @50%
= 25% supply
3

11.
Suppression of Mobility
 BC:
 PT share ~13M
trips/day
 ECQ:
 PT share = 0
 GCQ:
 PT share = ? (Hint:
<6M)
In NCR, PT comprise Rail, Bus, Jeepney, & Tricycle. In
other urban centers, jeepneys and tricycles
3

12.

Public Transport A.C.
It would either be better,
or worse, than before the
pandemic. But it won’t go
back ex ante.
Changes take decades to
play out in transportation.
There are uncertainties,
whose denouement may
alter the trajectories (or
size of the donut)
“The KNOWNS”
(Things of Which
We are Certain)
“The UNKNOWNS”
“Uncertainties”

13.
Covid’s lingering effect: Risk Aversion vs PT
No similar survey
in PHI, but likely to
yield similar
tendencies . . .
Decline in demand
. . . Extent of
decline unknown
Government Warnings: Traveling on Public Transport is very risky
4

14.
Trip Size & Mix will change
How many
school-
related
trip/day will
remain?
After Covid (AC):
Blended Learning & Working will stay for some
TRIP PURPOSE (BC)
What would be the
reduction in Work+Biz
Trips?
Will central HQ split
into several
decentralized work
hubs?
4

15.
Clear signs in a murky future
 Adoption of Digital technologies has accelerated
 Will E-payments become SOP on jeepneys?
 Capacity of public sector to induce and manage reforms/change is
weak
 Right direction, but early fumbles are not encouraging
 Transforming the jeepney is biggest challenge
 Covid-19 has not killed traffic congestion in MMA & other urban
centers
 2-decades backlogs in infrastructure developments
 Sweet Spot in Traffic, next 3 years (completion of several projects+
depressed demand)
 The world is going green (EVs)
 The Philippines is a bystander, not a hitchhiker
4

16.
4th in the World in Worst Traffic (2020)
Source:
World
Economic
Forum

17.
Tricycles on same, same, path
Tricycles is the current face of public transport in many LGUs
(1,488 municipalities and 142 cities) in the Philippines.
<10,000 in 1990 to > 4.5 million in 2019
4

18.
No fork on the road for Railways, also
Undercut ridership of buses on
Route #4
MRT-7 From SJdM to
Trinoma (22-km, 14
stations)

Undercut the improvised
EDSA Busway
Completion of MRT-3 Rehab
(Back to 2010 train capacity)

Improve viability of PITX in
Paranaque
LRT-1 Extension To
Bacoor/Cavite(12-
km, 8 stations)

More Trains on PNR South Commuter
Rail (Alabang & Sta Rosa)
 Undercut ridership on
Buses on Route#14
4

19.
Gov’t-ordered changes, ala King Canute
Industry consolidation was being pushed before 2020
 PUVM directive (DoTr-DILG Circular 19-June-2017)
 LTFRB Memo Circular 2020-019 14-May 2020
 Conventional organizational solution (i.e., merger)
Route re-structuring for urban buses and jeepneys was on
the table before Covid (per 19-June 2018 order)
 Rolled out for all MMMA buses, beginning April 2020
 Implemented, salami-style, for jeepneys in MMA
 On EDSA, exclusive busway on median was implemented
 Defied best-practices on establishing a BRT system
 Service contracting: a radical change in 2020
 Life-support system to the chosen ones
 Government assumed the operator role, absorbed market risks
4

20.
Is PUVM (the gov’t program) getting traction?
 ?
? ?
?
Sector was
Crippled
during the
Pandemic
Can it bounce
back stronger?
(PUVM = Public Utility Vehicle Modernization Program)
4

21.
Change has come to
Buses, again
 Situation before:
 ~10,000 buses on 90 routes
 ~600+ in NCR, of which ~175
on EDSA
 The desired New Order:
 31 routes
 ≤31 operators
 5,000 buses
4
EDSA
Carousel

22.
Drastic Change on EDSA Buses
 Two inner lanes of EDSA were
made exclusively for buses
 Concrete barriers were erected
 At-grade crossings closed
(e.g., U-Turn slots north EDSA
(from North Ave to
Monumento)
 Number of buses reduced
(from ~4,000 to 500+)

23.
Danger signs ahead on Bus Reform
4
 One Company for one route is fine, but
 Isn’t 31 one too many?
 Closer examination of routes point to 10 franchise areas
 Bus Consolidation happened in late 1970s, junked after 10 years. Will the
new program repeat the past?
 Who gets the franchise?
 Merge first, but is there a deadline?
 Multiple operators have been greenlighted during the pandemic
 Provincial bus company (e.g., Philtranco) allowed in urban operations
 Integrated operations (e.g., unified dispatching, revenue pooling) is the
objective
 New technology (analogous to Uber, Grab) makes integration possible,
without Corporate merger, but is avoided

24.
Glacial Change for Jeepneys
In MMA:
600+ routes
50,000 operators?
Phils:
~200,000 units
 Shift to mini-bus ordained in June
2017
 LGUs required to prepare their new
route plans
 DoTr to take care of NCR, but plans
got delayed
 Deadline for conversion is 2021, re-
set to 2022?
4
Step
Wise
Protocol
Mandated
by
LTFRB

25.
Red Flag #1 : Doubtful Financial Viability
 A new PUV cost Php2.0M or higher (vs Php0.3M for existing)
 Daily amortization for a loan (@6% interest, 7 years to pay) = Php1,169.
Operators’ hard choice: 1) forego their daily income (Boundary Fee
~Php1,000); and 2) get into debt with its attendant risk.
 Government claims that new PUV would gross Php6,605 (vs Php2,525 for
old), or 2.6 times, can only happen if 2 old PUVs are replaced by 1 new
PUV on the same route.
 Thus, 50% of existing operators must yield the market for the others to become
viable
 The 50% limit on capacity (ascribed to Covid restrictions) equates to 50%
(at least) reduction in gross revenues
 Drivers barely eke out a living @100% load, impossible @50%
 LTFRB refuse to adjust fares, before and during Covid, for the old or new
PUVs
4

26.
Red Flag#2 : Old-fashioned Merger is Messy
 Government prescription: operators on a route must form into a
cooperative. Franchisee must have a minimum 15 units
 Coop do not self-form, but no organizer/convenor with venture capital on
the ground
 More routes have more than 15 units/operators (e.g., PUVs on
Consolacion-Mandaue-Cebu City routes >800)
 High risk for banks to lend to newly-formed Coop with no asset,
no track record
 The early birds of PUVM are corporates, masquerading as Coops
 Entry is overlaid to existing routes, not to new/consolidated routes
4

27.
Red Flag #3 : What happened to Connectivity?
 Missing element in the bus & route re-design plans
 Attention to transfer points, for commuting comfort and convenience
 Details on turnaround (where a route ends and go back) path for every
route
 Integration in terms of seamless transfers
 A fare policy that removes cost-penalty of every transfer in a
journey
 Rail, bus and jeepney services should be complementary;
synergistic and not zero-sum
 EDSA Busway is exhibit A for myopia
 Transfers from other buses more difficult and riskier
 Competes directly with MRT-3, with co-use of stations
4

28.
The Joker in the Horizon
 Service Contracting Scheme:
Temporary or Permanent?
 Conversion from jeepneys to mini-
buses: speed up, slow down, or trip
over?
 Fate of displaced PUJ/PUB drivers:
Shortage or Surplus?
 Covid-19 : Will it end in 2021 or
extend?
4

29.
Source: https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/pandemic-pushes-se-asia-back-into-poverty//

30.
Singapore’s Education Minister: Pandemic could last 4 to 5 years
Source: Channel News Asia (25-Jan 2021)

31.
In Sum: Two contrasting futures of PT
A public transport
system will emerge
stronger, fitter, better
out of the pandemic
A transport sector
bowed by Covid, but
unbroken, crawling
back to health despite
a bad driver
2SF1SB
[2Steps Forward,
1-Step Back]
1SF2SB
[1-Step Forward,
2-Steps Back)
4

32.
Thank You for making me
a part of your workshops
renesan@outlook.ph
5
“Our anxiety does not
come from thinking
about the future, but
from wanting to
control it.”
- Kahlil Gibran