Economic megatrends, as described in more detail in the book Purpose+Profit (2017, Ter Weijde).

1. NON-CONFIDENTIAL AND ENTIRELY SHAREABLE
Purpose+, Amstel95, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Economics

2. Visual 4: Breaking out of the Malthusian trap
Source: World Bank
Note: value calculated in current dollars
1.37
74.29
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
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1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
TrillionsUSD,currentvalue
451
10,112
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
GDPpercapita
Growth in the total world economy (GDP) 1960-2014 GDP per capita growth 1960-2014
3.04
7.35
0
1
2
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4
5
6
7
8
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
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Peopleonourplanet,billions
Population growth 1960-2014

3. Visual 5: The big four rule (half) the world
23
17
11
16
5
4
8
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
GDP (market exchange rates) GDP (PPP)
%oftotal,worldGDP
United States China Germany Japan
47%
53%
Big four Others
Source: World Bank, IMF
Note that graph does not show the EU, if it would the EU would show roughly same size as the US economy
78.5T

4. Visual 6: The global economic engine is re-balancing
2.4
2.6
2.7 2.7
2.3
2.7
2.9 2.9
1.1
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0.0
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4.5
5.0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
GDPgrowthrate,%
World Advanced economies EMDEs
Source: World Bank Global Economic Prospects (January 2017)
Forecast

5. Visual 7: Inequality is back to pre-WWII levels
Source: Piketty (Capital in the Twenty-First Century, 2013)
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Total income earned by top-10%, including capital gains

6. Visual 8: Income has grown in the last decade,but not for all
Source: Branko Milanovic, Christoph Lakner, Global Inequality: A New Approach for the Age of Globalisation (2016)
15
38 39
42
46
52
60
65 66 67
76
70
63
60
28
1
4 5
17
27
65
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 98 100
Percentile of global income distribution
Cumulativegaininrealincome,1988-2008

7. Visual 9: The top the pyramid carries the financial weight
Source: Financial Times Lexicon, Wikipedia, The Economist, Statista, Credit Suisse (global wealth pyramid, 2016 data).
* Estimated wealth range per individual based on total global wealth of 265tn in 2016
73,2% of world population
10,7% of world population
18,5% of population
7,5% of population
0,7% of population
Extreme poverty line
<10,000USD a year
<1,90USD/day
10,000-100,000 USD
100,000-1mln USD
>1mln USD
2,4%, 6,1tn
Unclear
11,4%, 29,1tn
40,6%, 103,9tn
45,6%, 116,6tn
Individual wealth Total wealth* per group
‘Ted London’ line, <3000 USD/year

8. Visual 10: The world is rigged for the rich and powerful
76%
94%
85%
84%
83%
81%
80%
80%
79%
78%
78%
78%
77%
76%
75%
75%
72%
71%
71%
69%
67%
65%
56%
18%
5%
10%
11%
15%
13%
15%
11%
17%
18%
19%
17%
16%
16%
14%
14%
25%
20%
14%
24%
24%
31%
35%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Total
Mexico
Spain
Italy
South Korea
Brazil
Belgium
Russia
South Africa
India
Turkey
United States
Germany
Great Britain
Australia
France
Peru
Canada
Japan
Argentina
Poland
Indonesia
Sweden
Agree Disagree
Answers to the question ‘the economy of my country is rigged to advantage the rich and powerful’
Source: Ipsos Global Trends Survey (September 2016), N = 17,180

9. Visual 11: Productivity growth is slowing down
1.2
1.0
0.4
1.5
1.0
0.4
2.7
1.8
0.3
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
2003-08
2010-15
2016
2003-08
2010-15
2016
2003-08
2010-15
2016
World Advanced economies EMDEs
1992-2008 average
Source: Robert J. Gordon (2016); World Bank; Conference Board
Note: Productivity measured as real GDP (in constant USD) per hour worked

10. Visual 12: Smaller workforces combined with higher debt
Country Population today Population 2050,
estimate
Public debt today, in
% GDP
Public debt today,
absolute, in USD
Germany 82.7 million 74.5 million (-8.2m) 85.8% 2.8 trillion
France 66.9 million 71.1 million (+4.2m) 102.0% 2.5 trillion
Japan 127 million 107.4 million (-19.6m) 261.0% 12 trillion
Greece 10.8 million 9.7 million (-1.1m) 147.1% 231 billion
United States 323.1 million 388.9 million (+65.8m) 93.6% 16 trillion
United Kingdom 65.6 million 75.4 million (+9.8m) 103.7% 2.9 trillion
The Netherlands 17 million 17.6 million (+0.6m) 79.4% 616 billion
Canada 36.3 million 44.1 million (+7.8m) 85.0% 1.7 trillion
Portugal 10.3 million 9.2 million (-1.1m) 159.3% 293 billion
Spain 45.6 million 44.8 million (+0.8m) 91.1% 1.1 trillion
Italy 60.6 million 56.5 million (-4.1m) 122.6% 2.3 trillion
Source: Economist Debt Clock, Wikipedia

11. Visual 13: Working fewer hours is the new norm
67.6
39.9
65
33.85
62
40.25
56.9
40.45
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1870 1880 1890 1900 1913 1929 1938 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Hoursworkedperweek,average
Germany Netherlands United States United Kingdom
Source: www.ourworldindata.org

12. Visual 14: Expectation markets come with increased volatility
1,549.38
735.09
0
200
400
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800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1/1/00
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$14,718.58
$14,418.74
$8,000.00
$9,000.00
$10,000.00
$11,000.00
$12,000.00
$13,000.00
$14,000.00
$15,000.00
$16,000.00
USGDP,billionsofUSD
When the real GDP in the US declined by about2,2% in
the 2008 crisis*... ...share prices in the S&P500 tumbled with more than 50%
Source: World Bank, Yahoo Finance
* Average numbers. Euro area -4,1%, US -2,6%, India +7,7%, Russia -7,9%

13. Visual 15: Fighting expectations is an uphill battle
Source: Fixing the Game, (Martin, 2011); Statista, Yahoo Finance
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
SharepriceMicrosoft,pershare
28.37
32.19
36.84
39.79
44.28
51.12
60.42
58.44
62.48
$-
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
RevenueMicrosoft,inbillionsUSD

14. Visual 16: Algorithms do most of the trading today
Source: Investopedia, Wikipedia
15%
20%
25%
30%
45%
60%
75%
80%
83%
85%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Algorithmictrading,%oftotal

15. Visual 17: Passive trading is increasingly popular
276 330 441
713
1,181
1,591
1,950
2,448
2,995
3,313
3,551
3,942
4,399
4,779
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Number of ETS worldwide
Source: Statista, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters

16. Visual 18: ICASA is replacing the BRICS
Source: World Bank, Purpose+ analysis, McKinsey, The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress
Note; data for North Africa includes Middle East countries
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17. Visual 19: Billions more will become middle-class consumers
3.2
4.2
5.2
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
2016 2022 2028
Billionsofmiddleclassconsumers
Source: Brookings Institute

18. Visual 20: China sees continued high growth, with services in the lead
10.7
9.6
7.8 7.8
7.3
6.9 6.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016Q3
GDPgrowth,China
Industry Services GDP
Sources: World Bank, Haver Analytics; The Economist; The One Hour China Book; Why China’s consumers will continue to
surprise the world (Jeffrey Townson, Jonathan Woetzel)

19. Visual 21: China will overtake the the U.S. economy in size by 2025
Source: Bloomberg forecast
0
5
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15
20
25
30
35
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
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2016E
2017E
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2022E
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
Totaleconomysize,trilliondollars
US, trillion USD China,trillion USD
Forecast

20. Visual 22: Necessities are becoming a smaller piece of the wallet
Sources: World Bank, Haver Analytics; The Economist; The One Hour China Book; Why China’s consumers will continue to
surprise the world (Jeffrey Townson, Jonathan Woetzel)
Discretionary
Semi-necessities
Necessities
10%
15% 17%
22% 20%
12%
12%
13%
15% 21%
3%
4%
4%
3%
3%
10%
10%
9%
11%
11%
5%
7%
7%
5%
5%
7%
6%
7%
8%
8%
8%
11%
10%
11%
13%
44%
36% 33%
24%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2010 2013 2020 2030
Transport and communication Recreation, education and culture Personal items Housing and utilities
Household products Healthcare Apparel Food

21. Visual 23: The Chinese pile of non-performing loans is growing rapidly
Source: World Bank, Haver Analytics; The Economist
475.88
419.12
360.87 351.34 372.88
592.1
842.6
1,274.4
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Volumeofnon-performingloans,billionyuan

22. Visual 24: Chinese housing prices see incredible, but bumpy growth
Source: World Bank, Haver Analytics; The Economist
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Mar-12
May-12
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Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Housingprices,year-on-yeargrowth,%
1st tier 2nd tier 3rd tier

23. 42.6%
23.5%
29.5%
55.3%
17.8% 6.3%
6.2%
9.2%
2.0% 1.6%
1.9% 4.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2030*
South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia and Pacific
Latin America and the Carribean Middle East and North Africa Europe and Central Asia
Source: World Bank predictions, Global Economic Prospects 2007: Managing The Next Wave of Globalization.
Visual 25: Africa might house half of the world’s poor people
* World Bank baseline forecast

24. Visual 26: Commodity exporters are set to grow slower
Sources: Macrotrends database; World Bank projections; The Economist, A Risky State
* Oil used as example, other relevant volatile commodities are gas, gold, silver, zinc, wheat, sugar, coffee, copper etc.
** Examples: Venezuela, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Lybia, Algeria, Kazachstan, Congo, Iraq
0
2
4
6
8
10
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
EMDE commodity importers EMDE commodity exporters**
GDPgrowth,%
1990-2008 average 2003-2008 average
Forecast Forecast

25. Visual 27: Commodities can be a volatile business
156.34
48.32
29.38
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1/1/00
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7/1/16
1/1/17
Date
Source: Macrotrends database

26. Visual 28: The U.S. has stepped up the oil and gas game
Sources: www.eia.gov, January 2010 – February 2017 data export; The Fix,How Nations Survive and Thrive in a World in
Decline, Tepperman (2016)
1296
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan-2000
Jan-2001
Jan-2002
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
Jan-2005
Jan-2006
Jan-2007
Jan-2008
Jan-2009
Jan-2010
Jan-2011
Jan-2012
Jan-2013
Jan-2014
Jan-2015
Jan-2016
Jan-2017
USexportofliquifiedpetroleumgases,,000sbarrelsperday
1116
0
200
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1000
1200
Jan-2000
Jan-2001
Jan-2002
Jan-2003
Jan-2004
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Jan-2009
Jan-2010
Jan-2011
Jan-2012
Jan-2013
Jan-2014
Jan-2015
Jan-2016
Jan-2017
USexportofcrudeoil,‘000sbarrelsperday
* For reference: Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s largest producers of crude oil, produce ~10mln barrels per day

27. For more information
• Rens ter Weijde
• Mail: rens@purposeplus.com
• LinkedIn:www.linkedin.com/in/rensterweijde