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The Q111 BMI Malaysia Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from MYR167.37bn (US$47.52bn) in 2011 to MYR252.01bn (US$71.55bn) by 2014. A low unemployment rate, rising disposable incomes and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth. Malaysia's nominal GDP is forecast to be US$236.91bn in 2011, and BMI forecasts average annual GDP growth of 4.7% over the forecast period through to 2014. With the population expected to increase to 29.6mn by 2014. GDP per capita is predicted to rise 22.5%, from US$8,358 in 2011 to US$10,241 in 2014. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$4,817 in 2011 to US$5,702 by the end of the forecast period. Malaysia is classified as an upper-middle-income country by the World Bank, with the proportion of middle-income households estimated at more than 50% in 2007. According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia, urban households on average spent 1.8 times more than rural households between 2004 and 2005. Average consumer spending was MYR2,285 per month in urban areas and MYR1,301 per month in rural areas. With the urban population predicted to account for almost 76% of the total by 2015, according to UN data, this is likely to have a positive effect on retail sales. BMI forecasts vehicle sales of US$6.70bn in 2011, rising to US$9.36bn by the end of the forecast period (+39.7%). Malaysia is the largest passenger car market in the ASEAN region, with sales of 536,905 units in 2009. Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are forecast to be US$0.43bn in 2011, and to increase to US$0.58bn by the end of the forecast period (+35.8%). Consumer electronic sales are predicted to rise from US$9.15bn in 2011 to US$11.1bn by the end of the forecast period (+11.9%), boosted by demand from the tech-literate urban middle class and by a growing interest in electronic products from the underpenetrated areas outside Klang Valley. BMI food consumption data suggest that the food retail segment will have a market share of 28.1% in 2011. The sub-sector is forecast to be worth US$13.33bn in 2011, and sales are expected to grow to US$15.50bn by 2014. Our forecasts suggest a reduction in the retail market share of food to 21.7% in 2014 as non-food retail sales grow more quickly than food sales. Per capita food consumption is still forecast to be US$523.46 in 2014, which is impressive for the region. Although Malaysia is increasingly one of emerging Asia's more established mass grocery retail (MGR) markets, BMI continues to predict a bright medium-term future for the sector, with industry sales forecast to increase by 26.7% to reach US$5.75bn in 2014 on the back of the country's growing affluent middleand upper-income consumer base. Tourism is an important contributor to the retail sector. In 2009, Malaysia recorded a 7.2% increase in tourist arrivals to 23.6mn, with tourism receipts of US$17.34bn ' surpassing the targets set by the government under the 10th Malaysian Plan. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2011 are a forecast US$3.09trn. China and India are predicted to account for more than 91% of regional retail sales in 2011, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2011-2014 is forecast by BMI at 48.1%, an annual average 15%. China should experience the most rapid rate of growth, followed by Indonesia. Malaysia's forecast market share of 1.4% in 2011 is expected to remain stable throughout the forecast period.