NFC Mobile Payments & Marketing Opportunities: Forecasts & Analysis 2009 - 2014

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NFC Mobile Payments & Marketing Opportunities: Forecasts &
Analysis 2009 - 2014
Published on September 2009

Report Summary

This report provides an extensive analysis and market appraisal of the commercial opportunities open to players operating in the
rapidly expanding mobile NFC (Near Field Communication) market. The report examines the opportunities available in both the
mobile payments market and the mobile retail market (smart posters and coupons), as well as newly emerging interim solutions such
as stickers & SD cards.

In an extensive six year forecasting model the report presents market figures in easy to understand tables and charts such as: mobile
device shipments, NFC device shipments, NFC users, shipments of NFC interim solutions, NFC device usage, NFC transaction
traffic, Average transaction values of NFC payments, NFC transaction fees and ARPU for both payments and retail marketing - split
by mobile coupons & smart posters - all by eight key regions until 2014.

Based on an executive interviewing program with key players within the NFC market, the report discusses industry developments and
then goes on to evaluate the impact, sizing the revenue opportunity for both mobile payments and mobile retail marketing.

Key questions the report answers: How much will NFC users spend on their NFC phones in the future' How many people will
make payments using their NFC mobiles over the next five years' What will be the size of overall NFC transaction values' What is
the ARPU opportunity for NFC mobile retail marketing' How does the ARPU compare between NFC payments and the NFC retail
opportunity' How many NFC enabled devices will be shipped over the next five years' How many interim NFC solutions such as
stickers and SD cards will be shipped over the next five years' Which will be the leading regions in the market in 2014' What are
the trends, drivers and constraints affecting the development of the market'

Table of Content

Table of Contents

Glossary

Executive Summary
Introduction
Executive Interviewing Programme
What's New in NFC'
New NFC Retail Marketing Opportunities
Market Projections

NFC Mobile Payments & Marketing Opportunities: Forecasts & Analysis 2009 - 2014 Page 1/10


Mobile Device Markets
NFC Device Markets
Figure ES.1: NFC Device Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Table ES.1: NFC Device Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
NFC Devices in Use for Payments
Figure ES.2: NFC Devices in Use for Payments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Table ES.2: NFC Devices in Use for Payments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Interim NFC Solutions (Stickers & SD Cards)
Figure ES.3: Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8 Key
Regions 2009-2014
Table ES.3: Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by
Key Regions 2009-2014
Global and Regional Transaction Value Forecasts
Figure ES.4: Total Value of NFC Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Table ES.4: Total Value of NFC Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
NFC Total Payment and Retail Marketing ARPU Opportunity
Figure ES.5: NFC Mobile Payment & Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by
Payment Transactions, Coupons and Smart Posters 2009-2014
Table ES.5: NFC Mobile Payment & Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by
NFC Drivers & Constraints
Figure ES.6: NFC Drivers and Constraints
Recommendations

1. Mobile Commerce & Payments Market Trends
1.1 Introduction
Figure 1.1: Telstra 1H 2009 Mobile Revenues Split by Voice and Data
1.2 Market Drivers and Constraints
Figure 1.2: Mobile Payments: Summary of Market Drivers & Constraints
1.2.1 Drivers
i. Attractive to Users
ii. ARPU Growth Opportunity
iii. Larger Retail Transactions
iv. Cash Replacement
v. Developing World Financial Services
vi. Lower Churn for Mobile Operators
vii. Migrant Workers Driving International Money Transfers
viii. Smartphone Growth
ix. Quicker than Cash
1.2.2 Constraints
i. Handset Supply
ii. Poor User Experience
iii. Business Model Uncertainties
iv. Lack of Global Technology Standards
v. Regulatory Hurdles
vi. User Support and Help
vii. Transaction Costs

2. Mobile Payments: Market Structure
2.1 Introduction



2.2 Definition
Figure 2.1: Generic mCommerce Payment Process
2.3 Segmentation
2.3.1 Mobile Commerce Segments
Figure 2.2: Mobile Commerce Market Segmentation
i. Categories of Mobile Payments
a) Remote Mobile Payment Sub-segments
b) Point of Sale Payment Sub-segments
2.4 Classification of Payment Schemes
Table 2.1: Mobile Payment Classification
2.4.1 Remote Mobile Payment
i. Mobile Phone Bill ' 'direct to bill' (D2B) Payment
ii. Premium Rate SMS (PRSMS) ' Digital Goods
iii. Online ' Payment for the Mobile Web & WAP Billing
iv. SMS Payment ' Mobile Wallet and Account Based Payment
Figure 2.3: PayPal Mobile 'Text To Buy'
v. Person-to-Person (P2P) Payment
vi. Remote Physical/ Mobile Web & WAP Billing
2.4.2 POS (Point of Sale) Mobile Payment
i. NFC Payments
ii. Text and PIN
2.5 On Deck & Off Deck

3. NFC & FeliCa Technology Drivers & Inhibitors
3.1 Introduction
3.2. Near Field Communication (NFC)
3.2.1 Technology
3.2.2 NFC Implementation
Figure 3.1: Oyster Card Using MIFARE Technology
Figure 3.2 Moscow Metro Mifare Contactless Card System
Figure 3.3: Typical NFC Implementation
3.2.3 Interim NFC Solutions
Figure 3.4: Integration Phase Comparison - NFC and Mobile Broadband
i. NFC Stickers
Figure 3.5: Twinlinx My-Max NFC Sticker
ii. SD Cards
Figure 3.6: Giesecke & Devrient NFC SD Card
3.2.4 Use Cases: NFC Forum Interview
i. Specifications and Application Types
Figure 3.7: NFC Application Types
Figure 3.8: Uses of NFC
ii. Further Vertical Markets
Figure 3.9: NFC in the Automotive Industry
3.2.5 Security
3.3 FeliCa
3.3.1 Introduction
3.3.2 Standards & Specification
Figure 3.10: Sony FeliCa IC Card and Reader/Writer
3.3.3 Security
Figure 3.11: Sony FeliCa Security Features



Figure 3.12: FeliCa Networks Platform Management
3.3.4 Uses
Figure 3.13: Uses of FeliCa
3.4 NFC Drivers and Constraints
Figure 3.14: NFC Drivers and Constraints
3.4.1 NFC Drivers
i. Transaction Efficiency & Growth
ii. Infrastructure Availability
iii. Success Stories and PR
iv. Future Service Enhancements
v. Widespread NFC Applications
vi. One to One Mobile Marketing Opportunity
3.4.2 Constraints
i. Business Model Uncertainties
Figure 3.15: NFC Ecosystem Top Level View
ii. Device Availability
iii. Service Complexity and Management
Figure 3.16: NFC Ecosystem Detailed View
iv. Ecosystem Incentivisation
v. Infrastructure Availability

4. Market Forecasts: NFC Payments, Fees & Retail
Marketing
4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 NFC Payments
4.1.2 New NFC Retail Marketing Opportunities
4.2 Methodology
4.2.1 Approach and Assumptions
Figure 4.1: NFC Market Forecast Methodology
4.2.2 Geographical Splits
4.3 Mobile Subscriber Forecast
Figure 4.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 ' 2014
Table 4.1: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 ' 2014
4.4 Mobile Device Shipment Forecast
Figure 4.3: Mobile Device Shipment (m p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 ' 2014
Table 4.2: Mobile Device Shipments (m p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 ' 2014
Figure 4.4: Mobile Device Shipments Churn (% p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
Table 4.3: Mobile Device Shipments Churn (% p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
4.5 NFC Mobile Device Shipment Forecast
Figure 4.5: NFC Mobile Devices (% of Shipments) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Table 4.4: NFC Mobile Devices (% of Shipments) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Figure 4.6: NFC Mobile Device Shipments (m p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Table 4.5: NFC Mobile Device Shipments (m p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Figure 4.7: Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With NFC Devices Split by 8 Key Regions
2009-2014
Table 4.6: Total Number of Mobile Users (m) With NFC Devices Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-
2014
4.6 Interim NFC Solutions Forecast
Figure 4.8: NFC Interim Solutions Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Table 4.7: NFC Interim Solutions Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014



Figure 4.9: Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8 Key
Regions 2009-2014
Table 4.8: Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8 Key
Regions 2009-2014
4.7 NFC Devices & Interim Solutions
Figure 4.10: Global Comparison: Subscribers with NFC Phones vs Interim Solutions (m) 2009 '
2014
Table 4.9: Global Comparison: Subscribers with NFC Phones vs. Interim Solutions (m) 2009 '
2014
4.8 NFC Devices in Use
Figure 4.11: Percentage of NFC Devices in Use Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Table 4.10: Percentage of NFC Devices in Use Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Figure 4.12: NFC Devices in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Table 4.11: NFC Devices in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Figure 4.13: NFC Devices in Use as % of All Mobile Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2

Table 4.12: NFC Devices in Use as % of All Mobile Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-
2014
4.9 NFC Devices & Interim Solutions in Use
Figure 4.14: NFC Devices & Interim Solutions in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Table 4.13: NFC Devices & Interim Solutions in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
4.10 NFC Transactions Traffic
4.10.1 Average Number of NFC Transactions
Figure 4.15: Average Number of NFC Payment Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions
2009-2014
Table 4.14: Average Number of NFC Payment Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions
2009-2014
4.10.2 Total Number of NFC Transactions
Figure 4.16: Total Number of NFC Payment Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-
2014
Table 4.15: Total Number of NFC Payment Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-
2014
4.11 NFC Payment Transactions Value
Figure 4.17: Average Value of NFC Payment Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2

Table 4.16: Average Value of NFC Payment Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2

Figure 4.18: Total Value of NFC Mobile Payment Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-
2014
Table 4.17: Total Value of NFC Mobile Payment Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-
2014
Figure 4.19: NFC Gross Payment Transaction ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-201
Table 4.18: NFC Gross Transaction ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
4.12 NFC ARPU Opportunities
4.12.1 Mobile Payment Transaction Fees
Figure 4.20: NFC Payment Transaction Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
Table 4.19: NFC Payment Transaction Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
4.12.2 NFC Retail Marketing
Figure 4.21: NFC Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Coupons and Smart
Posters 2009-2014



Table 4.20: NFC Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Coupons and
Smart Posters 2009-2014
4.12.3 Total NFC ARPU Opportunity
Figure 4.22: NFC Payment & Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Payment
Transactions, Coupons and Smart Posters 2009-2014
Table 4.21: NFC Payment & Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by

5. Applications & Services
5.1 Applications and Services
5.1.1 Global
i. GSM Association Interview
Figure 5.1: Pay Buy Mobile Participating MNOs Worldwide
ii. NFC Forum Interview
Figure 5.2: NFC Projects Testing a Variety of Applications
5.1.2 North America
Figure 5.3: Visa payWave Payment Options
5.1.3 South America
5.1.4 Western Europe
i. Overview
Figure 5.4: A1 mobilkom austria: Buying Train Tickets
ii. Visa Europe Interview
a. Market Assessment
b. Future Trends
iii. O2 UK Interview
b. O2 Wireless Festival 2007 & 2008
c. London Fashion Week February 2008
Figure 5.5: O2 Money Service
iv. Italy
v. France
5.1.5 Eastern Europe
5.1.6 Indian Sub Continent
5.1.7 Far East & China
i. NTT DoCoMo
Figure 5.6: Osaifu-Keitai Service Concept
Figure 5.7: Osaifu-Keitai in Various Scenes in Daily Life
Figure 5.8: Growth of Mobile Commerce Revenues in Japan 2004 ' 2007 (100 million yen)
ii. SK Telecom
5.1.8 Rest of Asia Pacific
i. Malaysia
Figure 5.9: Maxis FastTap Service
Figure 5.10: Maxis FastTap Service Outlets
ii. Singapore
iii. Australia
5.1.9 Africa and Middle East

6. Vendors
6.1 Introduction
6.1.1 Innovision
i. Products and Markets Update



Figure 6.1: Topaz Tags
ii. Top Market Trends & Issues
6.1.2 NXP
6.1.3 Nokia
Figure 6.2: Nokia 6216 Classic
Figure 6.3: Evolution of Mobile Financial Services
6.1.4 ViVOtech
Figure 6.4: ViVOtech POS Product Range
Figure 6.5: ViVOtech Strategic Development Areas
6.1.5 Proxama
6.1.6 Mobile Distillery

7. Standards & Forums
7.1 Introduction
7.1.1 Who is Doing What'
Table 7.1: Overview of Selected Forum Activity
7.2 ETSI
7.2.1 Members
7.3 The GSM Association
7.3.1 Mobile Money Activities
Figure 7.1: GSMA Mobile Money Activities
Figure 7.2: PBM Purchasing Process
Figure 7.3: PBM Architecture
7.3.2 Members
7.4 International Organisation for Standards (ISO)
7.4.1Members
7.5 Mobey Forum
7.5.1Members
7.6 NFC Forum
Figure 7.4: NFC Forum 'N' Mark
7.6.1 Members
7.7 Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)
7.7.1 Members
7.8 EMVCo
7.9 European Payments Council
7.10 Smart Card Alliance
7.10.1 Members
7.11 Further Organisations

List of Forecasts



- All forecasts are for 2009-2014.
- Regional forecasts cover 8 regions: North America, South America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Far East & China, Indian Sub
Continent, Rest of Asia Pacific, Africa & Middle East.
- Interim Solutions include stickers and SD cards

Mobile/NFC Device Shipment Forecast
- Mobile Device Shipment (m p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions
- Mobile Device Shipments Churn (% p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions
- NFC Devices (% of Shipments) Split by 8 Key Regions
- NFC Device Shipments (m p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions

Interim NFC Solutions Forecast
- NFC Interim Solutions Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
- Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8 Key Regions
- Global Comparison: Subscribers with NFC Phones vs Interim Solutions (m)

NFC Devices in Use
- Percentage of NFC Devices in Use Split by 8 Key Regions
- NFC Devices in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
- NFC Devices in Use as % of All Mobile Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions
- NFC Devices & Interim Solutions in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions

NFC Transactions Traffic
- Average Number of NFC Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions
- Total Number of NFC Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions
- Average Value of NFC Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions
- Total Value of NFC Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions
- NFC Gross Transaction ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions

NFC ARPU Opportunities
- NFC Payment Transaction Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions
- NFC Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Coupons and Smart Posters
- NFC Payment & Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Payment Transactions, Coupons
- and Smart Posters

Mobile Subscriber Forecast
- Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions
- Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With NFC Devices Split by 8 Key Regions



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