Energy and resource practitioners face growing uncertainty and complexity but unprecedented opportunity as they confront the future. This story underpins the premise of the multidisciplinary Energy and Earth Resources graduate program at the University of Texas.
2. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
In the dark: the energy-water-food nexus
July, 2012: 9% of the world’s population
left in the dark (population larger than
Europe’s and 2X that of U. S.)
Major drought
farmers increase use of electric pumps
to produce groundwater from greater
depth for crop irrigation
Low water levels reduced capacity of
hydroelectric dams
see Webber, 2015
Power Grid Corporation of India
3. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
My objective: Expose you to the fascinating and diverse challenges of the
energy/resource space and why solutions must be inherently
interdisciplinary and why the Energy and Earth Resource graduate
program makes sense
• Global energy / resource perspectives; what is changing?
• Patterns of technology evolution
• Unlearning
• What does this mean to energy practitioners?
Outline
4. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
Today the world uses 16 billion
BTUs of energy every second1
(that’s ~1.4 TCF of natural
gas/day)
and ~5.5 trillion gallons of
water/day*(that’s 8 million
Olympic swimming pools/day)
and energy and water
consumption are linked!
1ExxonMobil Energy Outlook
*Fischetti, 2012 (Scientific American)
The scale is daunting
Atacama desert
5. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
Today’s energy / resource challenges: human and complex
Electricity
~1.5 Billion
People with no
Electricity
Available
available
not available
~ 1.1 billion
Modern
Sanitation
data from WHO, 2008
Modern
Cooking /
Heating Fuels
data from World Bank, 2006
available
since
1994
data from World Bank, 2006
updated from Laclua, 2017;
Taylor, 2017
85% of global population has electricity, up from 75% in 1994
But what does this mean for CO2 emissions?
(40% of global CO2 emissions are from power
generation)
2.5 billion people lack modern sanitation
and 3.5 million people die of water related
disease per year
6. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
UN2014HumanDevelopmentIndex
Per capita energy consumption
(Middle Class)
ExxonMobil, 2016
A growing challenge
• Per capita energy consumption correlates well with stage of development
• Both middle class population growth and related development will come from the non-OECD
7. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
Data courtesy Marc Imhoff of NASA GSFC and Christopher Elvidge of NOAA NGDC.
Image by Craig Mayhew and Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC.
The undeveloped world looking for light
https://earthhabitat.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/temperaturenopopulationdensity2000.jpg
• The “world at night” map reflects development
which results from electrification
• Major economies remaining to be developed:
Asia Pacific (continuing), Africa
offshore natural gas flares
8. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
• Growth in energy demand will come from the non-OECD countries (APAC in particular)
• Demand growth is very uneven
• Efficiency is the greatest source of energy; 25% demand increase would become 100% w.o. expected efficiencies
India drove energy consumption growth in 2015 (6%)
Global energy demand
Demand-side management:
e.g. lighter, stronger composites;
decentralization; Internet of
Things, etc.
ExxonMobil, 2016
9. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1850 1900 1950 2000
Percent
Energy Information Agency
Wood Coal Hydro Nuclear RenewablesGasOil
modified from 2010 XOM Energy Outlook
ChinaIndia
• The energy needs of an evolving economy have been driven largely by need (rather than policy)
• Each energy transition has taken 40 – 50 years
U. S. energy demand fuel type vs. time
industrial economy
present
10. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
Energy density (specific energy (MJ/KG))
modified from https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch8en/conc8en/energycontent.html
At a conversion rate of 20%,
on a solar cell of one square meter,
it would require ~58 days,
to capture the solar energy
equivalent of 1 gallon of gasoline
Hydrogen : Carbon
4:1
1: 10
1:2
2:1
11. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
60% drop
45% drop 59% increase
U. S.: 12.45
CO2 emissions reduction
• largely market-driven in the U. S.
• largely policy-driven in Germany
• globally complex: yes
Policy or market-driven change?
• U. S: Lowest U. S. CO2 emissions since 1991
• Germany: 24% of power consumed in 2013 was from renewables
• Europe: 22 GW of combined cycle gas turbine power taken off line due to
low or negative clean spark spreads (due to low coal and low European
carbon allowance prices)
Average U. S.
residential electricity
costs
From ExxonMobil, 2016
45% drop
12. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
Global, U. S. water withdrawal
• Rate of growth of global water withdrawal has slowed
• U. S. water withdrawals per capital have dropped significantly since 1980 (efficiency gains)
• U. S. per capital water consumption is about 300 gallons per day (Webber, 2016)
Meat and sugar consumption are responsible for 30% and 15% of water consumption, respectively
U. S.Global
Maupin et al., 2014)
13. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
One dimension of the energy-water nexus
• Energy (thermoelectric plant cooling) is the biggest single user of water
Directly linked to electricity demand
• As generation efficiency continues to improve and per capita demand drops, water use will drop
• Agriculture dwarfs all other sectors for water consumption
Brown et al., 2013)
Maupin et al., 2014
14. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
• Average cost of bottled water is 300X (large containers) to 2000X (typical 500 ml bottles) the cost of tap water
• Global consumption of bottled water has almost doubled in 10 years
• Tap (municipal) water is highly undervalued; currently costs ~ 1.5 cents per liter
Why are people paying such an outrageous premium for bottled water?
Global consumption of bottled water (billions of liters)
Bottled water price and consumption
Price of bottled water ($/liter)
Tap water: $.015/liter
15. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
The copper-energy nexus
• Copper’s main uses are related to energy: low electrical
resistance and high heat transfer
• To satisfy the world’s copper demand today, ~5 million tons
of rock are mined / day; volumetrically equivalent to the
excavation of 5 Panama Canals per year
• Exponential growth over the last century
• Supporting future exponential growth: further electrification of
global populations; electric vehicles?
• Challenging future exponential growth: photonics?
Nickless, 2017
Y = 4E – 28e0.0329x
R2 = 0.99
16. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
Solar PV: global installed capacity
Projected (labeled by year published) vs
Historical cumulative PV installations
Actual
Sources: IEA World
Energy Outlook (various
years); Mints (2015)
from presentation by
Margolis (2017)
Projected (labeled by year published) vs
Historical cumulative PV installations
Actual
• Exponential increase in global solar PV capacity
Repeated under-prediction due to linear extrapolation of status quo
• >30% of electricity generation capacity added in the U. S. in 2010-2013 was from solar and wind
• 24% of electric consumption in 2013 in Germany was from renewables
7 GW
90 GW
170 GW
230 GW
2016:303 GW
17. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
•Exponential drop in cost for Li ion batteries
Early 1990s cost was in ~$3500 / kWh
8% annual drop in unit cost among leading manufacturers
Solving the intermittency problem
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate2564.html
Nykvist and Nilsson, 2015)
18. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
Renewables projection to 2035
Traditional energy business models facing challenges from
renewables:
1) Natural gas (and certainly coal) fired power
2) Power utilities (decentralized, prosumer generation and storage)
3) Internal combustion engine (ICE) based transportation
(EV parity by mid-2030?)
Wood Mackenzie, 2017
Wood Mackenzie, 2017
19. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
modified from Pentland, 2013
Challenges to utility model from distributed
energy resources (demand-side focused):
1) Prosumer generates power from free fuel (sun,
wind) and can sell excess to grid
• Traditional power plant is “back-up”
• Back-up role reduced by batteries
2) Highly decentralized, close to demand, distributed
control
3) Capital costs are subsidized (e.g. tax credits)
4) Prosumer is not paying for “poles and wires”.
Evolving utility business model
Traditional utility business model (supply-side
focused):
1) Buy fuel (natural gas, coal)
2) Generate electricity (highly centralized generation)
3) Transmit electricity to customer
4) Pay for capital improvements from revenues and
approved rate hikes
20. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
• Energy demand in developed countries is decreasing
and the rate of demand growth worldwide is decreasing
• Efficiency will continue to be the greatest source of energy
• Portfolio of future energy supply is more diverse
• Exponential growth in technologies may accelerate energy
transition from fossil fuels
• Renewables are disrupting conventional business models
• CO2 emissions in the U. S. have dropped to 1991 levels
• Energy, water and other resource issues are substantively linked and solutions
must be integrated across technology, finance and policy considerations
A world of opportunity, complexity and uncertainty
Considerations of the energy decision maker
23. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
modified from Yurewicz et al., 2008
0’
10,000’
0 10 miles
SULPHUR
CREEK FIELD
Woodward-1PICEANCE CREEK
FIELD
Regional Cross Section; Piceance Basin
F27X-8G
24. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
• The recognition of gas in shales is not new; the town of Fredonia , NY was lit by shale gas in the 1820s
• Advances in hydraulic fracturing from horizontal wellbores has made this a commercially viable resource
• Fundamental geologic characteristics, incl. the critical role of organic porosity, were unknown to geochemists until very recently
• Much remains to be understood regarding the geologic controls of shale gas (and oil) accumulations
Lash, 2008
FIB SEM image of organic matter in producing shale
50 nm
Ar ion milling system
Hitachi, 2016
Passey et al., 2010
Devonian shale; Upstate NY
500 nm
“You can’t produce gas from shale”
25. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
0
5
4
6
3
2
1
‘82 ‘86 ‘90 ‘94 ‘98 ‘02 ‘06 ‘10
BCF/D
BARNETT (23 YRS)
FAYETTEVILLE (4 YRS)
HAYNESVILLE (1.5 YRS)
Chuchla, 2012
MARCELLUS (3 YRS)
Current production:
15 bcf/d
“The Barnett shale is a one-shot wonder”
26. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
oil
gas
volatile oil /
condensate
“You certainly can’t produce oil from shales”
Shale gasShale oil Condensate
28. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
DeepwaterProductionCapacity(depthinmeters)
(Chuchla, 2009)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
y=3E-73e0.087x
R2 = 0.97
Deepwater facilities; U. S. GOM
~ 1000 m
> 2500 m
“I’ll drink every barrel we produce from deepwater”
• Under-prediction of technological capabilities (same as solar capacity)
• Current global deepwater production is ~9.5 million barrels / day (10% of global demand)
29. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
“The Santos basin is flawed”
Ultra deep water
2000-3000 m
Post-salt sediments
Variable salt thickness
5000-6000 m
Heterogeneous carbonate reservoir
+ variable permeability
TD: 8000 m (>25,000’)
Pre-2006 dogma: Post-salt reservoirs in the Santos basin compare unfavorably with
the Campos basin, the (Lagoa Feia) source interval is likely to be dominated by
volcanics and the basin is likely gas-prone
Outcome: Exploration, using the Campos as an analog, was notably unsuccessful
• 1970-1987: 59 dry holes; one discovery (Merluza (0.07 tcf))
• 1988-1998: 45 wells, some small discoveries (e.g., Tubarao (30 mmbbl))
• 1999-2005: 81 wells, few modest-sized discoveries (e.g. Mexilhao)
TOTAL (1970-2005): 185 wells, 18 discoveries (2 commercial)
Post-2006 paradigm: Pre-salt traps are very large and potentially viable source rock
may give rise to very large accumulations; reservoir type, quality and distribution are
uncertain.
Outcome:
• ~ 40 billion oil equivalent barrels discovered between 2006 and 2016
• Microbialite carbonate reservoir is and highly productive
• The pre-salt play in the Santos basin is oil-prone
30. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
Conclusions
The education of future energy practitioners should consider that:
• uncertainty is the watchword
• technology is driving, exponential (accelerating) change
• learning can require undoing old learnings
• solutions to energy problems are inherently interdisciplinary
• the “opportunity space” and career paths are more ample than before
31. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
What is EER?
Premise: All energy and earth resource challenges are inherently multidisciplinary.
The Energy and Earth Resources Graduate Program provides the opportunity for students to
pursue interdisciplinary studies in areas of geosciences, engineering, management, finance,
economics, law and policy for 21st century careers in energy, minerals, water, and
environmental resources.
Jackson (administrative home) / earth, atmospheric sciences
Cockrell / engineering
McCombs (dual MBA) / economics, finance
LBJ (dual MPAFF, MGPS) / policy
Law / law, regulation, contracts
Energy and Earth Resources graduate
program
Energy Institute+
technology
policy
economics
/ finance
32. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
What are their current interests?
Theses themes: 2017, 2018
29%
24%
17%
12%
7%
5%
33. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
Where are they working?
32%
12%
9%
7%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
oil and gas power consulting finance
IT academia environmental renewables
oil and gas unaffiliated retail water mining
research chem industry manufacturing consulting; unaffiliated
law military other
1989 – 2015 graduates
34. multidisciplinary studies for interdisciplinary solutions
Geology / Energy and Earth
Resources*
Computational Data
Analytics
Energy / Resource Finance Decision Analysis
Resource Economics / FinancePolicy / LawTechnology (Science / Engineering)
Core
Tracks/
Concentration
Basic course of study
Minimum requirements:
• Core: 4 courses
• Distribution: 1 course from each track
• Concentration: At least 2 courses in a track plus a thesis in the same theme as the track
+
Thesis
+
Thesis